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Military coup in Turkey: Objectives and potential consequences

The military coup in Turkey was a textbook operational success and no military units came out to confront it for 8 hours. The Turkish air force could Not have engage unless the US air-force in Injerlik base gave its green light.

NATO idea was to strike at least two birds in one shot and decided to call off the operations:

1. NATO wanted to remind Erdogan that he should not sign deals with Russia and Iran without prior agreements and negotiation with the USA and Europe

2. Preserve a shaky “Democratic” image of Turkey and force Erdogan Not to slide faster into a Theocratic system of Moslem Brotherhood control of all the institutions

My conjecture is that this tactics (of shooting more than one essential birds) will fail in the medium-term:

1.Erdogan will Not cancel his agreements with Russia or Iran: The NATO will pressure Erdogan to reduce these agreement into a skin-deep understanding

2. The democratic processes will enhance the power of the Moslem Brotherhood in election and erase whatever objective NATO wanted of  a secular Turkey

The benefits of this military coup:

As after each coup, whether successful or Not, Turkey will need a couple of months to regain a semblance of internal control.

This period will witness the withdrawal of Turkish troops outside its borders (read Baashoka in northern Iraq or within northern Syria) and demanding foreign troops inside Turkey (airfields) to reduce their activities.

The consequences for this necessary isolation will give a breathing period for the neighbouring States such as Syria, Iraq, the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabach enclave of Azerbaijan. The benefits are:

1. Reduction of military activities against the Turkish, Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish movement

2. Syria will finally get the green light to recapture all of Aleppo and its surrounding towns, since No Turkish supplies in arms and jihadists will flow inside Syria in the foreseeable future

3. Iraq will complete surrounding greater Mosul by taking the Turkish positions in Ba3shouka.

4. Syria and Iraq will launch a joint operation to take the border city of Abu Kamal, thus denying daesh any logistical routes to Mosul and Rakka.

5. Syria will have to retake Deir el Zour in these joint military operations

6. A serious negotiation for a political settlement in Syria

Note 1: Erdogan called the Turkish army “The Army of prophet Muhammad” in order to oppose any secular positioning of the army.

This “failed” coup was the ideal pretext for Erdogan to fire 2750 judges from their posts who bothered him in his attempts to quell freedom of expression and human rights excesses…. The list was already prepared before the coup, on the ground that they constitute the “deep structure in the institutions” of the Fathallah Gulan movement, and the Sufi culture in Turkey.

Note 2: I watched a documentary on ARTE that shows the southern regions of Turkey, by the Syrian borders, to support Daesh and Al nousra. They are the Turks who vote for Erdogan. Thousands of these Turks left their families and joined the extremist movements in Syria and Iraq.

Note 3: Erdogan claimed that the followers of  Fathallah Gulan (residing in Pennsylvania) are behind this coup d’etat: what is this original Turkish Moslem Brotherhood movement?

https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2010/05/14/a-turkish-cultural-movement-fathallah-gulan/

Turkey’s Corruption scandal? What kind of outrageous news is this?

Dozens of their journalists colleagues are in prison or on trial, thousands of faceless opponents hound them on Twitter, and phone calls from government officials warn them over their coverage – all hazards of the trade for Turkey’s journalists.

Government critics who refuse to be muzzled can find themselves sacked.

Others avoid trouble, such as the broadcaster screening a documentary on penguins last June while police sprayed thousands of demonstrators in Istanbul with tear gas.

DASHA AFANASIEVA published this Feb. 3, 2014 on Reuters:

Corruption scandal tests Turkey’s cowed media

What has erupted in the past few weeks, a probe into alleged corruption at the heart of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan‘s government,  might seem like a gift to Turkey’s cowed and long-suffering press.

With a few exceptions, much of the press is in no position to capitalize on the scandal by taking a more robust line with the government.

The scandal has blown open a feud between Erdogan and the U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, (Fathallah-Gulan) a powerful former ally whose “Hizmet” (Service) movement has influence in the police and judiciary, as well as parts of the media, and whom Erdogan blames for orchestrating the graft probe to unseat him.

An anti-government protester holds a placard during a demonstration in Ankara in this June 4, 2013 file photo. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/Files

An anti-government protester holds a placard during a demonstration in Ankara in this June 4, 2013 file photo. CREDIT: REUTERS/UMIT BEKTAS/FILES

“Gulenist” newspapers such as Zaman and Bugun, previously loosely allied to Erdogan’s AK Party, have reported details of the allegations, from pictures of cash stuffed in shoe boxes to damaging phone recordings between businessmen and Erdogan’s associates, something almost unthinkable just a few months ago.

Pro-government newspapers like Sabah, Star and Yeni Safak have largely portrayed the corruption investigations as a plot against Erdogan.

In the middle is a mainstream media, largely owned by sprawling conglomerates with business ties to the state, which has been cautiously trying to find a more assertive new voice, although its ownership structures cast doubt over whether there can be real change.

“The graft probe is a new opportunity for Turkish journalism to push itself out of suffocation,” said Yavuz Baydar, one of Turkey’s most prominent journalists who launched Platform 24, a media monitoring website, on Monday.

“The question is whether major conglomerate-owned outlets such as Hurriyet and Milliyet will be able to rise up to the challenge,” he told Reuters. Milliyet declined to comment while the editor in chief of Hurriyet did not respond to emailed requests.

Baydar lost his job at Sabah, whose former owner Calik Holding is run by Erdogan’s son-in-law, after criticizing the police crackdown on anti-government protests last June.

Sabah was sold in December to Kalyon, a construction group with major government contracts, in a deal that typifies the ownership structures in Turkey’s media landscape.

At least a dozen newspapers and 10 TV stations are owned by conglomerates with energy, construction or mining interests, all sectors heavily dependent on government business.

“This has created a situation in which media outlets are used to promote the ownership group’s financial interests,” U.S.-based press watchdog Freedom House said in a report published on Monday.

“Members of the media and the government alike describe newspapers’ Ankara bureau chiefs as ‘lobbyists’ for their companies,” it said.

‘BETTER NOT UPSET SIR’

Erdogan has described the corruption investigation as an attempted “judicial coup“. He has reassigned prosecutors and judges and thousands of police officers.

That has brought the probe to a halt and prompted lawyers, despairing at what they view as a lack of transparent judicial process, to leak court documents to those parts of the press not favorable to the government.

But when news website T24 published an article about a parliamentary question from the opposition Republican People’s Party regarding claims of bribery in the sale of Sabah (Morning) and other media assets, it was told to take it down by the media regulator. Then on Monday the same regulator said it had sent the warning by mistake.

“We’re just trying to provide something different from the ‘government newspapers’ that publish the AK Party line that this is a coup d’etat,” said Erhan Basyurt, Bugun’s editor-in-chief.

The paper’s circulation went up to 165,000 from 140,000 in the month after the corruption probe broke.

Other newspapers have had to be more cautious.

A senior editor at one of Turkey’s largest dailies, who did not want to be named and fears for his job after his boss was told to fire him, said he had been the subject of a hate campaign on the Internet and in pro-government newspapers.

He was followed and threatened, his car-license plate at one point published online, he said.

Sometimes he did not put bylines on stories to protect reporters. He also might soften the headline or put material damaging to Erdogan lower down in stories.

Restrictions on press freedom and attacks on journalists are nothing new in Turkey.

Commemorations of the 2007 murder of Armenian-Turkish journalist Hrant Dink, widely viewed as a political assassination, still draw tens of thousands each year.

But the taboos have changed.

Where once criticism of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the revered founder of the modern secular republic, or portraying Kurdish militants as anything other than “terrorists” might have resulted in a jail sentence for “insulting Turkish identity,” now it is criticism of the government which is problematic.

Editors and reporters said they had received phone calls from officials close to the prime minister asking them to change their coverage or dismiss journalists for critical stories.

“The voice on the end of the line says, ‘Beyefendi rahatsız olmasın,’ which can be translated as ‘Better not upset sir’,” said prominent author and columnist Ece Temelkuran, fired from the Haberturk newspaper after a series of such warnings for her coverage of a Turkish air strike which killed Kurdish civilians.

“The use of the word ‘sir’, ‘beyefendi’ makes your realize straight away what you are dealing with,” she said.

Government and AK Party officials declined to comment.

POLARISED

Turkey is the world’s leading jailer of journalists, with 40 in prison as of December, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. Reporters Without Borders‘ press freedom index ranks Turkey 154th out of 178.

The government says no journalist is being held or tried for their work.

“They are facing situations like these solely because they have got mixed up in other activities,” a senior government official, who did not want to be names, told Reuters.

But government influence, such as the indirect sackings and threat of loss of business for parent companies, which poses the main threat to press freedom, journalists and rights groups say.

“The government seems to have acquired the habit of shooting the messenger whenever it is in trouble. Journalists should not have to suffer because of high-level administrative in-fighting,” Reporters Without Borders said in a December report.

These criticisms come ahead of local elections in March, a presidential race in August and parliamentary polls next year.

Opposition candidates complain that Erdogan’s frequent speeches are broadcast live and in full by a slew of television stations, a degree of coverage his opponents do not enjoy.

One of the most pernicious effects of the widespread firings of reporters and editors from the ‘mainstream’ media is that there are fewer moderate voices to be heard,”  Freedom House said in its report.

(Additional reporting by Orhan Coskun and Gulsen Solaker in Ankara; Reporting by Dasha Afanasieva; Editing by Alexandra HudsonNick Tattersall and Giles Elgood)

Note 1: Turkish Cultural expansion in Central Asia https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2010/05/14/a-turkish-cultural-movement-fathallah-gulan/

Note 2: How many terms a President or Prime Minister has to serve before turning a dictator or an oligarch? Is Putin of Russia any better?

The US Constitution didn’t mention any restriction on the number of times a President can be candidate. Luckily, George Washington and Thomas Jefferson refused a third tenure on account of facing great difficulties during their second term. Only Franklin Roosevelt served 4 terms because of the WWII and couldn’t finish it.

The Constitution was amended to only two terms since then.

Egypt Moslem Brotherhood from the Inside: One of the largest religious/political cult?

Egypt Moslem Brotherhood is not a movement: It is one of the largest Islam religious/political cult. It is not just one of the islamic sects, or one of the Sunni branches: It is a cult. You cannot join this cult by applying and declaring your affiliation to its ideology.

You will have to be proposed by a full-member as a potential “cog in the machinery“, pass several levels, closely monitored, controlled, tested… And if you satisfy the one main criteria of effacing your individuality to match the ideology, you may acceed to the level of a Brother Worker after about 8 years of practical indoctrination in the field of action.

As you are taken over by a professional member, you are a muhib (lover of the Brotherhood), a stage that may last from 6 months to 4 years. You are asked to join a local usra (family) of about 5 memebrs who closely watch over your behavior. The candidate is moved to the rank of muayyed (supporter).  The next phase is Muntasseb (officially a member). You are elevated to the phase of muntazim (fully organized member), a critical phase that may propel you into Akh 3amel (working brother)

You might know a few religious or civic cults, and you might be a member of a cult without admitting it: They all proceed in the same mechanism and hierarchical structure… but the purpose is ultimately a political goal of acceding to power and imposing a unidirectional system of belief on the entire community… But there are differences between religious sect cults with political agenda, and civic political cults with fundamentally religious agenda, and this clarification requires a follow-up article

What is scary is that the Moslem Brotherhood is dominant in most Arab States, and most probably follow the same of religioius/political system, and have reached their goal of grabbing power, never to relinquish it.  As it happened in Turkey for the last decade… First, I let you real what Ziad Akl wrote and I ‘ll attach a few of my comments.

Ziad Akl published on Nov. 3, 2102 in the Egypt Daily News:

“No other political group or movement has received the same attention or has had the same impact on Egyptian politics as the Muslim Brotherhood, since the ousting of Mubarak until now. The Brotherhood became an everyday reality for Egyptians.

We wake up to the statements of its leaders, we follow the news of its significant figures and we support, oppose or simply feel indifferent towards our president who belongs to the Brotherhood. There is a daily interaction that takes place between every Egyptian and the Muslim Brotherhood. Whether we like it or not, the Muslim Brotherhood shapes post-revolutionary Egypt.

While most of the time we focus on the external dimensions of the Muslim Brotherhood’s rule over Egypt, meaning their policies, statements, decisions and directions, we do not donate the same amount of attention to the group from within. I believe that the way in which the movement is organised from the inside has a lot to do with their current position within Egyptian politics.

The rigid internal structure of the Muslim Brotherhood is not very common among other political movements and groups in Egypt. If at any moment you stopped and asked yourself what it takes to become a Muslim Brother, here is the process shortly outlined.

Joining the Muslim Brotherhood is not an easy task; it is a process that takes years and years. It is not a matter of filling an application or attending a couple of meetings or even donating some money; it is a process that rids you of your individuality and turns you into another cog in the a machine, or in the words of Roger Waters, another brick in the wall.

It takes about five to eight years to transform from an aspiring member to a fully integrated Muslim Brother. During this period, the loyalty of the aspiring member is closely monitored and his dedication to the cause and the doctrine is closely watched.

Local members of the Brotherhood scout for potential candidates in universities, usually students who demonstrate significant signs of piety. These members do not usually identify themselves as Muslim Brothers, rather they conceal their identity to try and build relationships with the potential candidate and be able to assess his commitment to religion.

The Brotherhood also targets the children of the Muslim Brothers, starting their recruitment process around the age of 9. If you decide independently that you want to join the Brotherhood and you start seeking ways to do that, you need to know a member who will probably take you to another man to guide you and teach you. So like a vampire community, only a Muslim Brother can transform you into one.

Age is a crucial factor in the recruitment process; the Brotherhood usually directs its recruitment efforts towards young men. If the organisation feels that the potential candidate demonstrates sufficient commitment to their ideology, the long process of actually becoming a Muslim Brother then begins.

As soon as you are admitted into the Brotherhood, you become a muhib, a word that literally means lover or follower. This phase could last between six months and four years depending on the performance and the improvement of the aspiring member. During that phase the follower joins a local usra (family) which is a group of four to five people that meets regularly and where the piety, morality and ideology of the aspirant are closely watched

After the leader of the family decides that the follower has shown sufficient piety and knowledge of Islamic texts, the candidate is moved to a more advanced phase where he becomes a muayyed (supporter). During the “supporter” phase, duties towards the organisation must be fulfilled and a curriculum of study completed. Upon finishing that phase, you are moved to a higher rank and become muntasib (affiliated).

As soon as you become affiliated, you start donating a portion of your earnings to the organisation, usually five to eight per cent. In the “affiliated” phase your loyalty and commitment are closely probed. If you satisfy those who monitor you, usually over the course of a year, you are then allowed to the phase of muntazim or organised brother and you can assume lower levels of leadership. Finally, if you pass all the tests that the Brotherhood will subject you to; you are admitted into the final stage of membership which is ach amil or working brother.

This cult-like process is how our current leaders have been formed and how the Brotherhood is carefully forming future ones. This quasi-fascist structure where your loyalty is always put to question and your personal life is watched at every moment is the mechanism by which Muslim Brothers are produced.

Now, is it any wonder that all Muslim Brothers sound the same? Is it surprising that they all argue in the same way, share the same ideas and are obsessed with listening to their own voices?

If for years your loyalty has been directed towards one entity, the Brotherhood and its ideology, can you be loyal to anything else? The Muslim Brotherhood is an organisation that tattoos your soul, molds your mind, brands your ideas and at every moment suppresses the free play of your powers. This is the Muslim Brotherhood from within, this is where our leaders come from!” End of article

Comment 1: If it takes 8 years to indoctrinate a member to efface his individuality, it must takes that many years for any minor deviation in reforms within the ideology, coming from the top, to take roots in the new generation of  Moslem Brotherhood…And during all these years, what the remaining citizens who don’t give a hoot about this cultist idee-fix are supposed to do? How can they oppose and confront a cult that is unable in its structure to admit differences with the other communities that diverge in their system of belief?

Comment 2: In Syria, there is this party of the regime called the Baath Party. It is supposed not to be founded on any religion belief system, a civic political party, and yet, the regime was unable to delete the chari3a from the constitution or delete the statement that Islam is the religion of the State.  A political party that has been in power of over 50 years, must have been reduced to a cult.

This Syria Baath party must have a cultist faction within its ranks and files. Most probably, the Alawit religious sect of the regime must have built-in a cult within the party, and all the members of this cult hold the key positions within the State’s institutions…

Note: On the Turkish Moslem Brotherhood https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2010/05/14/a-turkish-cultural-movement-fathallah-gulan/

US Administration tacit green light: Power in the Middle-East shared by military and Moslem Brotherhood movements

Why the US Administration and policy-makers reached a comprehensive strategy to allowing the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) political parties and movements to share power with the military in the Middle-East States?  Tunisia is the forerunner with the MB obtaining 45% of the votes.  Egypt and Libya are to follow suit.

This policy is not new: More than a decade ago, the US decided that the Turkish Moslem Brotherhood (MB) Party, lead by Erdogan PM, and representing the Moslem Sunni sect, is the preferred alternative to exclusive military rule.  The Turkish MB government has stuck steadfastly with the long-term US strategy in the region.  A successful case that the US believe could be executed and practiced in the other Arab/Islamic States…

The tacit rational of the US Administrations are:

First, sharing of power of the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood with the military would facilitate a social deal with the Christian Cop minority (10% of the population), by making the MB movement directly responsible for any religious persecution;

Second, this sharing of power would rob the military government an essential tool of using Islamic factions in order to pressure minority sects in supporting government corruption policies…

Third, this sharing of power would facilitate confronting “terrorist” factions, which have taken an Islamic face and undertone…

Fourth, this cooperation in vastly Sunni majority States will oppose the growing Chiaa power in the region, spearheaded by Iran.  The US Administration has adopted the slogan that Iran is the Evil power that is frustrating its global strategy in the Greater Middle-East region. Iran decided to become self sufficient in military hardware production…

Fifth, the US wish this new alternative political system would behave differently, even though continuing with the same ideology of exclusion, discrimination, and considering the Chariaa (religious laws) as the source of civic legislation..

What the US and European States want in return for this sharing of power?

First, keeping oil flowing at reduced market price value. This practice has never ceased to be the case. The regimes were asked to forget how to make good use of produced oil, except for export necessities…

Second, keep market open for imported goods. It has always been the case: the regimes were not meant to figure out a way of manufacturing any goods worth exporting…

Third, Keep exporting the agricultural product and raw materials…at the expense of the famished population…

Fourth, fully controlling any “terrorist” activities outside State borders.  The regimes have been fulling cooperating with the CIA and other European secret service agencies, in all kinds of matters, including how to control internal protesters and opposition forces…

Fifth, keep purchasing arms from them, at the exclusion of Russia…This was the case of Qadhafi who got insane and decided last year to buy arms exclusively from Russia

Why the US Administration  and European States have reached this understanding? Fundamentally, they have given up on this region for any kind of liberal democratic institutions and political structure.  Consequently, let the people govern themselves the way they did for centuries, as long as they stay away within the US and European borders and don’t export their problems to the western States…

Do anyone believe that, once a religious Islamic political party, within a majority of the population of its sect (Sunni or Chiaa), will ever lose a “democratic” election? The Turkish MB are increasing their margin at every election, and the case of Chiaa Iran is blatant. What kind of democracy are we talking about in these cases?

I think that I am expressing the implicit opinion of the secular forces, and all the minority religious sects, whether Christian, Moslem, or otherwise. The western society and political elite have given up on the people of the Arab/Islamic countries, particularly in the Near-East region.  The next target is Syria, but this is another story.

All the States neighboring Syria know that a civil war in Syria will seriously affect the stability of their regimes (dictatorial, absolute monarchy, or otherwise…)  The neighboring States to Syria, including Turkey and Israel, know that the assurances of the US, European Union, the pseudo States in the Arabic/Iranian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia are crap:  They have no leverage in taming any mass upheavals, and worse, the spreading of civil wars within their own countries:  Arms are abundant, and the borders are long…

Note 1: You may read the precursor of the practical understanding between US and Turkish Moslem Brotherhood https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2010/05/14/a-turkish-cultural-movement-fathallah-gulan/

Note 2: This post was partially inspired by the editorial of Sarkis Naoum in the Lebanese daily Al Nahar.

A Turkish cultural movement: Fathallah Gulan?

There is this educational movement initiated by a former Turkish official preacher or Moslem cleric, called Fathallah Gulan, who currently resides in Pennsylvania since 1999, for supposedly health reason.

The movement has established over 1,000 schools in over 100 States.  The schools are gender separated and offering a mixed education of Western scientific reasoning, latest technology know how, and Islamic value system.  The schools teach in local language, English, and Turkish.

Turkey and the Capital Istanbul are to be the Grail for must visit to graduates as was Paris, as is New York, as will be Shanghai.

The primary target States were the Central Asia States under the former Soviet Union such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan

The Turkish graduate teachers were “voluntarily” sent to remote towns in Central Asia States since 1992 to open schools, teach, and set up businesses.  The ideological undertone was that the roots of the Turkish race are from this regions and the citizens in these States have to regain pride and dignity in their Turkish origins.

Initially, poor students were encouraged to attend these schools for free education and board until this schooling system prospered and rich people patronized it.

Currently, fees are around $5,000 in Kazakhstan because 30,000 applied for 1,400 vacant places.  Schools in a particular State are totally independent from even the nearby State and teachers are not to visit schools in other States.  Management and administration of Schools in one State have a branch office in Istanbul.

Teachers wear black suits and black ties and they do not grow beard.  Higher level students play religious advisors or chaperon in Islamic value systems and ethics.

Women are not permitted to accede to the higher administrative and decision spheres in this multi billion enterprise.

The initial teachers were principally educated in Catholic schools and propagated the same teaching programs. For example, these schools teaches both the creationist and evolutionary theory of mankind.  Graduates from these schools contribute heavily and generously to this organization once they establish their own businesses.

This organization is not formally registered as a political party or as an official movement: it has no formal constitution or program; its finances are not transparent.  Its members are not asked to formally register in the organization.

It is a “secret” organization except for its educational purposes.  A former Interior Turkish minister estimates that 70% of the police force are members in that organization.

This “organization” claims not to have any theocratic ideology.  Anyway, Islam is one of the rare religions where knowledge and sciences were encouraged to acquire, practice, and disseminate everywhere, even when its political systems where fundamentally theocratic.

Thus, teaching Western sciences and reasoning are no foundation to believing that in due time this organization will NOT establish a theocratic system in Turkey.

Note 1:  Current events are demonstrating that this movement was the precursor or the catalyst of the Turkish Moslem Brotherhood in power under Erdogan PM.

Note 2: This December 2013,  Erdogan sacked the ministers of the Interior, Finance and Justice on ground of frauds committed by their sons. Erdogan has decided that this powerful cultist movement is getting out of hand and its tentacles are reaching way deep in the social and political fabrics of Turkey.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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