Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘financial transparency

A billionaire refugee in France: Saad Hariri lands in Beirut with one $billion in his suitcase

Officially, the one $billion that the Saudi monarch gave to Lebanon is meant to be spent on aiding the Lebanese army to confront all the “terrorists activities” spreading in Lebanon.

Tacitly, ex PM Saad Hariri is to be the money distributor of this huge sum and he returned to Lebanon after 3 years of vacations in order to personally supervise the spending of the money.

All this money is basically meant to be spend on the election campaign since the Parliament feels too ashamed to extend its tenure again and again on flimsy excuses of “insecurity conditions”.

Saad Hariri  inherited  the money and the political position. He had no political experience and knew nothing of Lebanon social structure: He needed 6 months to learn how to form a government and spent most of his tenure abroad on multiple vacations, doing personal business deals.

A few months ago, Saudi Arabia extended 3$billion to France on the ground of providing the Lebanese army the necessary weapons to confront terrorist factions and the capability to maintain security and the shaky status quo of Lebanon political outdated system.

So far, the 3 $billion have evaporated into deep pockets in Lebanon and France: financial transparency is not a cornerstone in our system.

Probably, France extended part of that that money to the extremist jihadist factions on our border with Syria. The Nusra and ISIS have occupied our sprawling town of Ersal for 5 days and committed atrocities and killed scores of our soldiers and kidnapped about 40 soldiers.

Jamil Berry posted on FB: 

Mon Opinion

La période que traverse actuellement le Liban est extrêmement brumeuse, et de plus en plus illisible.
Laissons nos religions aux vestiaires et réfléchissons.

Qu’avons nous comme données récentes ?
Trois milliards Saoudiens évaporés? (Aide à l’armée?)

Hariri qui est rentré sous les caméras au Liban. Avec dans ses valises un milliard … Pour ?

Tripoli qui s’agite à nouveau?
Ersaal avec ses vrais martyrs de notre armée Libanaise?
Et ses assaillants salafistes qui trouvent malgré tout des Janus parmi la classe politique libanaise pour minimiser, diluer, et démentir s’ils pouvaient ; nos martyrs.

Il se prépare quelque chose d’extrêmement grave je pense taillé à la seule mesure de la survie de l’état d’israël.

Israel est plus que jamais conscient du droit du peuple Palestinien à son Etat appuyé en cela par les rues arabes.

Israel est conscient de l’hostilité croissante des peuples des pays limitrophes face à l’injustice dont il fait preuve surtout avec un Embargo sévère et mortifère contre Gaza, et le morcellement incessant de la Palestine par les implantations juives victimes d’une Shoa économique générée par la crise dans laquelle se débattent leurs pays d’origine ( crise qui ne touche pas que les juifs , sauf que israel se propose comme issue en agitant l’étendard de l’anti sémitisme ambiant)

Rajouter à cela que de gisements immenses de gaz et de pétrole son découverts aux larges du Liban et d israel .

Le Liban entre désormais dans le club des pays frappés par la malédiction du sous-sol. (Huge reserves of gas known and confirmed since 2000)

Un exemple : l’Algérie a un sous sol infiniment riche , la Tunisie pas .

Cette dernière connaitra rapidement accalmie et prospérité, la première se débattra toujours.

D’un point de vue purement sécuritaire, israel a été contraint de rendre le Liban sud a ses Libanais malgré son eau dont il a besoin. ( le prix devenait prohibitif pour israel. Trop de morts , vu le virus Ezbolla (Hezbollah) qui y sévissait)

L’Irak, La Lybie, La Syrie , étaient des menaces sécuritaires pour israel. Ces pays ont été scientifiquement et méthodiquement mis à terre en 3 temps chacun ( observez les 3 temps d’un dromadaire quand il veut se mettre à terre ) sans pour autant cesser de tambouriner qu’il faut que la résistance libanaise dépose ses armes.

Entretenir la faiblesse des pays arabes et les anémier pour les cent ans à venir, passera désormais d’après les stratèges du pentagone et d israel réunis par la semence d’une guerre Suchi ( Sunnites / Chiites) et elle commence à donner ses fruits mortifères. Les printemps se suivent mais ne se ressemblent pas.

Le Liban ” is different ” . Devenu très anglophone, très peu francophone, la France ( sa mère adoptive ) en grande difficulté économique ne viendra plus vraiment à son secours car :

1/ Il s’est tourné vers les USA
2/ la France est un pays matérialiste, Laïc. Défendre la chrétienté, lui est vraiment passé de mode.

La guerre sunnite / chiite a déjà commencé dans la région, et je suis intimement convaincu que ces stratèges de l’apocalypse nous diront bientôt qu’il ne faut pas mettre tous les salafistes dans le même sac : il y aura les bons salafistes: ceux qui se battront contre le Ezbollah , et les mauvais salafistes ceux qui se battront contre l’armée libanaise (sic!)

Plus que jamais au Liban, les politiciens Libanais ne commandent plus sur rien et n’ont de l’autorité que dans la mesure où ils ne l’exercent pas.

Bientôt , même une chatte au Liban, ne reconnaîtra plus ses chatons.

Ah les Chrétiens … J’allais vous oublier : je ne vous pense pas les vrais visés dans l’apocalypse annoncée, vous serez soit des victiles collatérales, soit des victiles de diversion. Dans les deux cas, vous aurez vos ” couloirs humanitaires ”

Déjà que le Liban est couloir en soi .
Couloirs dans un couloir : rien de mieux pour couler notre pays.

( Jamil BERRY )

What Baha2 Hariri, Saad Hariri’s eldest brother, confessed of the tight connections among Saudi secret services, Bandar bin Sultan and Walid Jumblat…
 
‎بهاء الحريري يخرج عن صمته ويفضح أخوه سعد الحريري و آل سعود<br />
ماذا يقول بهاء الدين الحريري عن شقيقه سعد : سرق الزعامة بعد أن هدّدنا بندر بن سلطان وليد جنبلاط وعد أخي بامداده بالمقاتلين ….فجعت أنا وكل من كان قريبا مثل مهيب عيتاني والصديق الصدوق للعائلة الفضل شلق بتصرفات أخي …أخي صار مجرد صورة لابن رفيق الحريري اما القرارات فيتخذها ثلاثة بندر وتركي الفيصل وشقيقه الخبيث… لن أعود الى بيروت لأنّ أخي سيحرق بيروت لانه يستمع للعملاء لاللعقلاء … السنيورة يضحك عليه بكلماته المعسولة .<br />
أخي طيب القلب لكنه طمّاع وغبي غبي في السياسة كما كان غبياً في الرياضات …لقد طرد نازك أرملة المرحوم أبي بعد أن فهمت الرسالة التي أرسلها لها ولبناتها من خلال ال…حسن صبرا وبشكل مهين عبر صفحات المجلة الصفراء ” الشراع ” التي تهجّمت عليها وعلى بناتها ونسب اليها ما لا يعتبر الا خيانة للمرحوم رفيق الحريري واهانة لذكراه.لقد تركناه يسرق الزعامة بعد أن هدّدنا بندر بن سلطان بأنه وحلفائه الاسرائيليين والأميركيين لن يؤمنّوا للعائلة ولأموالها الحماية ان لم نوافق على اعطاء الزعامة لأخي سعد.كانت تلك المّرة الأولى التي أسمع فيها شيئاً ايجابياً عن اسرائيل في بيتنا.‎

بهاء الحريري يخرج عن صمته ويفضح أخوه سعد الحريري و آل سعود
ماذا يقول بهاء الدين الحريري عن شقيقه سعد : سرق الزعامة بعد أن هدّدنا بندر بن سلطان وليد جنبلاط وعد أخي بامداده بالمقاتلين ….فجعت أنا وكل من كان قريبا مثل مهيب عيتاني والصديق الصدوق للعائلة الفضل شلق بتصرفات أخي …أخي صار مجرد صورة لابن رفيق الحريري اما القرارات فيتخذها ثلاثة بندر وتركي الفيصل وشقيقه الخبيث… لن أعود الى بيروت لأنّ أخي سيحرق بيروت لانه يستمع للعملاء لاللعقلاء … السنيورة يضحك عليه بكلماته المعسولة .
أخي طيب القلب لكنه طمّاع وغبي غبي في السياسة كما كان غبياً في الرياضات …لقد طرد نازك أرملة المرحوم أبي بعد أن فهمت الرسالة التي أرسلها لها ولبناتها من خلال ال…حسن صبرا وبشكل مهين عبر صفحات المجلة الصفراء ” الشراع ” التي تهجّمت عليها وعلى بناتها ونسب اليها ما لا يعتبر الا خيانة للمرحوم رفيق الحريري واهانة لذكراه.لقد تركناه يسرق الزعامة بعد أن هدّدنا بندر بن سلطان بأنه وحلفائه الاسرائيليين والأميركيين لن يؤمنّوا للعائلة ولأموالها الحماية ان لم نوافق على اعطاء الزعامة لأخي سعد.كانت تلك المّرة الأولى التي أسمع فيها شيئاً ايجابياً عن اسرائيل في بيتنا.

I decided to relegate the introduction last. Why?  I have read many articles on the critical problem of Sovereign Debts and what did I discover?  They are basically series of data, abridged definition of convoluted terms, and then nothing.  Without any serious analysis, who cares to consider conclusions that are politically oriented but inconsequential for learning anything?

State public debts may be contracted through external creditors (government funds, institutions, or private financiers), internal resources, and hidden debts such as social security funds…

There are 9 technical ways to resolving or camouflaging excessive sovereign public debts that State governments have invented through centuries of steady accumulation of debts:

Increasing taxes, direct, indirect, and hidden taxes that most citizens are not aware that they are actual taxes.

Decreasing expenditure in the budget and allocating the savings to paying interest on debts.

Increasing production and facilitating internal trades to increasing economic growth, thus, increasing fiscal revenues.

Decreasing the interest rates on contracted debts through financial transparency and political stability.

Increasing consumer prices by forcing inflation and a fictitious decrease of the debt rate compared to GNP.

Creating wars on the “enemy” creditors to defaulting on external debts (principal and interest portions).

Refinancing the debts by decreasing the interest rate or lengthening the due dates:  Creditors are willing to be paid something on regular basis than submitting to lengthy litigation procedures with the World Commerce and Trade organization.

Simply “defaulting” and letting the chips fall where they please (the most frequently adopted decision since the Middle Ages).  In the last two centuries, 320 cases of States’ outright defaults have been registered with frequent consequences of wars, swapping of colonies, and mandated power over military weaker nations.

What are the signs that a State is planning to default?

One: The newer elected government immediately demands refinancing the debts and renegotiating the terms in amount, interest rate, and timetable of payments.

Two:  Banking institutions threaten to declaring bankrupcy; meaning, the banks start to cut down on loans in amount and in numbers; thus, slowing down internal trade and the creation of small new enterprises.

Three:  Foreign creditors stop lending for many reasons.

Four: Financial institutions actually declaring bankrupcy and setting off a financial crisis so that government reacts promptly and comes to the rescue by infusing massive liquidity of the hardworking “citizens’ savings”

Why government generally goes for the policy of accelerated inflation in order to resolving sovereign debts?  First, consumer prices are allowed to increase by increasing tariff barriers for cheaper imports, encouraging monopolistic mergers, increased interest rates on loans, and slowing down internal production.  Inflation diminishes export competitiveness by an over valuation of the currency. Inflation is connected by dramatic rise in Real Estates prices called “bubble”.

What is the rational for creating inflation?

Debts not “indexed” on inflated prices (fiscal revenues are inflated since generated taxes seem to have increased and the nominal GNP shows increases) reduce the ratio of the debt to the GNP and the fiscal revenue, giving the illusion that effective amount of debt was reduced.  An annual inflation rate of 4%mechanically reduces the debt ration by 20% within 5 years.

What are the consequences of inflation?

If the salary is not indexed on the inflation rate then, the purchasing power of an individual diminishes and he has to borrow or find an additional job to making ends meet or be supported by his parents’ savings.  Usually, the State maintains all public salaries unchanged for several years in order to keep spending “under control”.

After WWII in 1945, the public debts of the England was 250% on its GNP, France 110% (which represented 10 fiscal years of revenues), and the USA was 100% of GNP.  These countries adopted the inflation plan for 30 consecutive years, factitiously reducing the ratio.  With steady economic growth, and since when prices of commodities increase they never come down, the average yearly income increased, but it was mostly hidden by the inflation factor.  For example, the Chinese worker with a salary less than $1,000 is saving half his earning so that the Chinese government finances the growing external debts of the “rich States” in order to maintaining the “standard of living” of their citizens that effectively reflects 30 years of inflation policy.  Fact is, one of the methods for sustaining inflation was creating credit cards with limits up to 50 times the actual earning of the individual!

When a State decides to default it might start by temporary suspending paying interest on due date if refinancing negotiation failed; coupons of lesser values are issued.  Property values drop 35% within 6 years; share values decline 55% within 3 years; unemployment increases 7% within 4 years, and production rate drop 9% within 2 years.  If you notice that many of these consequences are effectively taking place then, your State has defaulted but was not transparent in declaring the difficult situation.

In the medium-term after defaulting, a State witnesses internal unrests, higher in frequency and in violence; government creates a preemptive war on a neighboring State to absorb the surplus unemployed citizens in the lower middle class; and the State is reduced to a vassal position to more dominant creditor nations:  the defaulting State is unable to secure more loans for many years.

What kinds of financial mechanisms and financial tools (gimmicks) a powerful State resorts to amortizing the impact of a large sovereign debt?

One, the State may use special right of withdrawal from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is starting issuing worthless banknotes.  Two, the State may create special perpetual funds generated by particular taxes designed to repaying the debt (political exigencies always use special funds for missions not intended to it, under the pretext of extraordinary emergency events).  Three, the State may nationalize productive sectors in the industries and then issue bonds on public properties.  Four, the State may declare the land of the nation is public property and all private properties should be rented for a specific period.  Five, all the time, the State is just printing money with decreasing values as long as the sovereign debts is huge.

The financial clubs and institutions that the powerful nations used to recovering their assets were: One, the “Club of Paris” was established in 1956, constituted of all the creditor nations (the G7) and international institutions, to manage the public debts contracted by the third world countries.  As Germany and Japan accumulated surplusses in their economies they tended to convert their dollars to gold; Nixon decided in 1971 suspended the convertability of dollar to gold and starting the devaluation trend of the dollar.  That was the end for the fictitious “Gold Exchange Standard”.  Two, the “Club of London” was established in 1979 in order to gathering all the commercial banks creditors to poorer States.  Thus, debtors States had to first refinance or renegotiate their public debts with the Club of Paris so that the Club of London executes the details with the commercial banks. Three, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) began getting involved after 1983 when major emerging States suffered financial problems.

Invariably, States unable to generate enough fiscal revenues so that 50% of the budget are dedicated to paying interests on sovereign debts are in deep trouble.  Many developed Nations can sustain up to 300% of debt to GNP for several years, while developing countries crumble under 50% ratio, simply because the political system is unstable and unable to bring in at least 50% of the budget to cover paying interest on debts.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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