Adonis Diaries

The question: “Is the UN or the Arab League or the people pro Qadhafist?” is very ridiculous.  I cannot envisage anyone, boldly claiming that he wants Qadhafi and his seven brutal and immature sons to rule the Libyans for another 50 years.

What’s going on in Libya?  One day the revolutionary forces advance and the next day, the Qadhafi forces counter attack and recapture lost territories and cities.  One evidence is clear:  The UN coalition forces will refuse the Qadhafi forces any incursions in the Eastern part of Libya, with the main city of Benghazi, bordering Egypt.

The first three days of the bombing of Qadhafi tanks, fighter planes fields, and anti-air defense arsenals by the UN “coalition” made us breathe a bit more freely:  Qadhafi is not about to massacre every Libyan who carried arms against his illegitimate regime and every demonstrators who refused Qadhafi and his 7 sons playing Nero.

We expected the quick defeat of Qadhafi forces and the return to normalcy.  Wrong.  The UN coalition project is not of the short-term kind: Geopolitical interests are being negotiated among the US, France, England, and Italy and the detailed blueprint needs sometime to be clarified.  Meanwhile, this “humanitarian” intervention is evolving into a lengthy civil war, resembling the civil war in Lebanon:  You catch a prisoner and you execute him summarily.

The first phase of the coalition intervention is meant to drag on indefinitely:  Instead of Libyans being slaughtered by Qadhafi, let Libyans kill one another in a lengthy civil war.  Until all Libyans call “Uncle; please, feed us, we are on our knees, a barrel of oil for a loaf of bread”.  The demand for a horse in exchange to a kingdom should be reserved to Qadhafi and his troglodyte of sons, and not to the common people in Libya.

You have this port  city, Misrata, west of the Capital Tripoli, encircled by the Qadhafi forces, and suffering of the lack of everything, and not receiving any humanitarian aids for over a month now.   The people in Misrata have been engaged in street fighting with the the forces of Qadhafi, and no relief is in the horizon.  A Turkish navy landed yesterday and evacuated 400 injured people.  That is good sign.  How many people must die and be injured before a resolution is found?

It is looking like Libya is in the planning of being divided in East Libya, by the Egyptian borders and including Ras Lanuf oil terminal; and West Libya, including Tripoli by the Tunisia borders, as during the Roman Empire and not the Mussolini Empire.  This is the medium-term project of western Europe and the US; that is why Germany, China, Russia, and Turkey are not that hot for the “humanitarian reasons” to initiating air bombing on Libya territory.

So far, the UN coalition forces are confident to have dismantled Qadhafi air force and air defenses.  The sky and the sea are clear for any land invasion decision, involving ground troops.  No, Libya cannot turn into another Afghanistan:  Libya is sparsely populated, barely 5 million, flat land, and nowhere to hide.

The Libyan deterioration coincided with the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe, the worst ever among a long series of nuclear disasters.  What this nuclear disaster has to do with Libya?  Future energy supply and replacement, stupid!  Germany has ordered a moratorium on nuclear energy and the Green parties in Germany are winning elections.  France, England and the US are reviewing their nuclear energy programs, and the flow of oil is a matter of  “strategic interest” at this junction.

Germany economy and policies were directed eastward in Europe and Russia for many centuries:  Germany is supplied in gas and oil from Russia.  The other western European States rely on oil supplied by Libya and Saudi Arabia.  Consequently, Germany, Russia, and China do not want the division of Libya or any de-facto mandated powers in the region.  The US, England, France, and Italy think that the Mediterranean Sea is their locked sea and Germany has no say in the matter to negotiate any initiative in this region.  Ridiculous France and England, crumbling States,hanging on the tail of the US, begging for crumbs.

The UN coalition does not expect any weighty opposition from the Tunisian people; it also expect Egypt to implicitly welcome East Libya to be under its mandated power, a natural extension of Egypt.   Things are looking rosy to the ancient colonial powers, with a glitch:  The Arab masses want no dictators, absolute monarchs, and particularly no colonial mandated power on their lands, absolutely none.

The UN coalition forces are losing their credibility very fast:  People are no fool.  Time to bomb Qadhafi and his clan today. Let the Libyan people decide.