Adonis Diaries

This month, we have been witnessing in Lebanon a resurgence in the debates relative to the International Court pertaining to the assassination of Rafiq Hariri.  Since its constitution in 2005 and funding, mainly by the Lebanese government, Lebanon gets in turmoil, every six months or less, concerning leakage of intelligence in the Court proceedings.  So far, over a dozen Court investigators and judges have resigned to “greener pastures”.  It sounds that these experts in the International Court have realized that they are working on a dud case.

In one of its many reports the International Court devulged that the USA, France, Saudi Arabia, and Israel refused to cooperate with intelligence.  In addition to Syria, Egypt, and Iran the previous four States have the most extensive intelligence networks in Lebanon. Principally, the main States such as the USA, France, Germany, Russia, and Israel have not cooperated with the necessary information in this case and the Court ended up with knowledge of the mechanism of the assassination but no proof relative to the initiators (decision makers) of the assassination and the planners.

It is well-known that Embassadors to Lebanon are the highest paid diplomats on earth:  The rational is that Lebanon is the main turnpike for intelligence gathering in the Middle East for the superpower States and the regional Arab States in addition to Iran, and lately, Turkey.

Before the assassination of Hariri, every intelligence agency knew that a serious operation on Hariri is planned and a few superpower States knew exactly the timing and they were all ready with their media coverage and detailed operational maneuvers after the assassination.  If Hezbollah was monitoring the events then, it is in his rights since Bush Jr and Israel wanted to eradicate this resistance force by all means.  The US, Israel, and the so-called “moderate” Arab States (of monarchs and dictators) have failed three times so far to weaken the military force of Hezbollah:  Once, after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri and the subsequent five years of consistent pressures by the Lebanese government of Seniora PM on Hezbollah to desist for military power then, after the failed July war 2006 by Israel that lasted 33 days, and the third time in trying to dismantling Hezbollah’s hard-wired communication and the subsequent closing down of Israeli agencies in Beirut in 2008.

The latest troubles are leaks from Israel that the International Court is about to indict members of Hezbollah by September; added to military threats by Israel of a major war on Lebanon by the begining of autumn.  This month, the Secretary general of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasr Allah has delivered three public speeches and two are in the pipelines.  Nasr Allah is claiming that the Court has been politized from its inception and the unique purpose of this Court is to put pressures on Hezbollah until it “joins” the world community as just a moderate political force in Lebanon.

Fact is, only the mechanism has been explained:  An Iraqi detonated the van containing one thousand kilo of explosive:  He was under the impression that he is assassinating Iraqi President Allawi.  The van was observed to be parked in one of Syria’s military vehicle maintenance facilities.  All the four false witnesses are from Syria and they were inducted with false information to sidetrack the Court. Only six months ago, the Court questioned six members of Hezbollah as witnesses on the ground that they were monitoring the whereabout of Hariri before the assassination.

One mean article stated that this defensive preemptive series of Nasr Allah’s speeches are aimed at Syria for not divulging secrets that only Syria has on Hezbollah’s activities.  Implicitly, there is cooperation among the superpowers to lure Syria into a vast compromise in return for the return of the Golan Heights by Israel, occupied since 1967.

The internal security of Lebanon is based on the political unity of its major factions against attempts to re-ignite another civil war.  Only the cooperation of the Lebanese army and Hezbollah can assure this security since the political system of Lebanon has proven that it is archaic since its independence in 1943.

The monarch of Saudi Arabia, the President of Syria, and the Emire of Qatar are converging this week-end on Beirut.  The indications are that the stability of Lebanon is far more advantageous than a totally uncertain gamble of weakening Hezbollah militarily with another US/Israeli premptive war on Lebanon.