Adonis Diaries

US Administration tacit green light: Power in the Middle-East shared by military and Moslem Brotherhood movements

Why the US Administration and policy-makers reached a comprehensive strategy to allowing the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) political parties and movements to share power with the military in the Middle-East States?  Tunisia is the forerunner with the MB obtaining 45% of the votes.  Egypt and Libya are to follow suit.

This policy is not new: More than a decade ago, the US decided that the Turkish Moslem Brotherhood (MB) Party, lead by Erdogan PM, and representing the Moslem Sunni sect, is the preferred alternative to exclusive military rule.  The Turkish MB government has stuck steadfastly with the long-term US strategy in the region.  A successful case that the US believe could be executed and practiced in the other Arab/Islamic States…

The tacit rational of the US Administrations are:

First, sharing of power of the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood with the military would facilitate a social deal with the Christian Cop minority (10% of the population), by making the MB movement directly responsible for any religious persecution;

Second, this sharing of power would rob the military government an essential tool of using Islamic factions in order to pressure minority sects in supporting government corruption policies…

Third, this sharing of power would facilitate confronting “terrorist” factions, which have taken an Islamic face and undertone…

Fourth, this cooperation in vastly Sunni majority States will oppose the growing Chiaa power in the region, spearheaded by Iran.  The US Administration has adopted the slogan that Iran is the Evil power that is frustrating its global strategy in the Greater Middle-East region. Iran decided to become self sufficient in military hardware production…

Fifth, the US wish this new alternative political system would behave differently, even though continuing with the same ideology of exclusion, discrimination, and considering the Chariaa (religious laws) as the source of civic legislation..

What the US and European States want in return for this sharing of power?

First, keeping oil flowing at reduced market price value. This practice has never ceased to be the case. The regimes were asked to forget how to make good use of produced oil, except for export necessities…

Second, keep market open for imported goods. It has always been the case: the regimes were not meant to figure out a way of manufacturing any goods worth exporting…

Third, Keep exporting the agricultural product and raw materials…at the expense of the famished population…

Fourth, fully controlling any “terrorist” activities outside State borders.  The regimes have been fulling cooperating with the CIA and other European secret service agencies, in all kinds of matters, including how to control internal protesters and opposition forces…

Fifth, keep purchasing arms from them, at the exclusion of Russia…This was the case of Qadhafi who got insane and decided last year to buy arms exclusively from Russia

Why the US Administration  and European States have reached this understanding? Fundamentally, they have given up on this region for any kind of liberal democratic institutions and political structure.  Consequently, let the people govern themselves the way they did for centuries, as long as they stay away within the US and European borders and don’t export their problems to the western States…

Do anyone believe that, once a religious Islamic political party, within a majority of the population of its sect (Sunni or Chiaa), will ever lose a “democratic” election? The Turkish MB are increasing their margin at every election, and the case of Chiaa Iran is blatant. What kind of democracy are we talking about in these cases?

I think that I am expressing the implicit opinion of the secular forces, and all the minority religious sects, whether Christian, Moslem, or otherwise. The western society and political elite have given up on the people of the Arab/Islamic countries, particularly in the Near-East region.  The next target is Syria, but this is another story.

All the States neighboring Syria know that a civil war in Syria will seriously affect the stability of their regimes (dictatorial, absolute monarchy, or otherwise…)  The neighboring States to Syria, including Turkey and Israel, know that the assurances of the US, European Union, the pseudo States in the Arabic/Iranian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia are crap:  They have no leverage in taming any mass upheavals, and worse, the spreading of civil wars within their own countries:  Arms are abundant, and the borders are long…

Note 1: You may read the precursor of the practical understanding between US and Turkish Moslem Brotherhood https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2010/05/14/a-turkish-cultural-movement-fathallah-gulan/

Note 2: This post was partially inspired by the editorial of Sarkis Naoum in the Lebanese daily Al Nahar.