Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Greater Middle East Strategy?

“Why Hezbollah of Lebanon pissed me off “: GW. Bush explains

GWBush wrote in his biography:

“On July 12, 2006, Laura and I had a stop-over in Germany on our way to the G8 at St. Petersburg. Angela Merkel recounted her childhood during the communist era in East Germany. Angela had a happy childhood, but her mother never ceased to warn her of mentioning family discussions in public: The Stasi (internal intelligence services) was everywhere.

News of Hezbollah capturing Israeli soldiers as hostages (and killing 8 Israeli soldiers who arrived promptly to the rescue and fell in the trap) triggered a strong reaction from Israel.

Israel bombed Hezbollah targets in South Lebanon, and bombed the civilian airport in Beirut to prevent further weapon supplies.

Hezbollah launched missiles on Israeli towns and cities

(How simplistic are the recollection of Bush Jr. on this important preemptive war on Lebanon! In a paragraph, Bush Jr. summarized the various attacks of Hezbollah on American targets within Lebanon in 1983…)

At the G8 summit, all members condemned Hezbollah for starting Israel reactive war. (

It was proven later on that Bush and Israel had finalized a plan of attack to begin in September, and thus Hezbollah preempted this planned war, but was not aware of the violent all-war reaction of Israel).

I was frustrated that Israel declined to attack Syria, thus facilitating communication and movement of Hezbollah.

Israel military targets in Lebanon were mostly doubtful, especially targets in Beirut and north Lebanon.  The immense damages to the infrastructure in Lebanon and the over 1,500 casualties among the Lebanese civilian were widely disseminated in the news media, and hampered the long-term prosecution of the war.

(In the first week, Israel failed to capture the first small town on the border called Maroun el Ras)

On the second violent week of Israel war, many members in the G8 demanded a cease-fire.  I didn’t side with their request: I wanted to continue the war until Hezbollah military power is eradicated. Fundamentally, the war on Hezbollah was to sending a strong message to Iran and Syria.

Unfortunately, Israel behavior in the third week of the war plan exacerbated the world community and the Lebanese government headed by Seniora, which was a strong ally to the US drive for democracy and liberty…

Israel bombed a building in Qana and killed over 30 civilians huddled in the basement.

(Israel had bombed Qana in 1996 where civilians took refuge in a UN compound and killed over 30o civilians).

Seniora was furious and was about to resign if the war resumed. The Arab leaders were afraid that the carnage in the pictures and video, circulating 24 hours on TV, could foment strong reactions of the people in the streets.

I convened the National Security Council, and the debate was hot.

Dick Cheney said: “We have to let Israel finish off Hezbollah.

Condoleezza Rice replied: “If we allow that, you may kiss good-bye to the presence of the US in the Middle-East region” and she proposed a cease-fire resolution in the UN and dispatching a multinational UN force to the Litany River.

I was for the resumption of the war, but I feared that lodging a veto in the UN will lead to isolating the US, instead of Syria and Iran.  Consequently, I figured out that long-term pressures on Syria and Iran out-weight the short-term successes on Hezbollah.  I dispatched Condi to the UN to iron out resolution 1701.

A cease-fire took hold on August 14,  Israel reactive and approximate war decisions, cost its precious and remaining credibility in the world community, even though Hezbollah was seriously weakened militarily.”

Four days before the voting on a resolution, Israel attempted a last, all-out advance of just 3 miles toward the Litany River.

Hezbollah destroyed 50 Merkava tanks and forced the Israeli troops to retreat every which way to the border.

(Interestingly, in the third day of the war, the delegates of Lebanon to the UN demanded to submit a cease-fire resolution.  The UN ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, informed them haughtily and in no uncertain terms that there will be no resolution before Israel annihilate Hezbollah.

Three days before the actual cease-fire, it was Bolton hurrying up to the Lebanese delegates and begging them to present a resolution.  He explained: “The Israelis are horribly harassing us for a cease-fire resolution, at any cost…”)

Note 1: The July war 2006, covered only three pages of the 484-page of the autobiographical book “Decisive moments: GW.Bush”  Amazingly, this war was the turning moment for the total failure of the US strategic plan of the “Greater Middle East.

Israel was reduced to defensive position, licking its wounds, examining its failures…

The Arab dictators and absolute monarchs who encouraged Israel to prosecute the war in order to eradicate Hezbollah military power were judged traitors by the Arab masses.

Turkey and the European States were pissed off with GW.Bush insistence of continuing the war for over 4 weeks. It was evident after the first week that the strategic goals have fizzled.  The remaining 3 weeks of the war were total liability to the US administration and Israel.

Hezbollah was on the offensive and frustrated all the haphazard attempts of Israel to getting back on the driver seat.

Note 2: Three days before the decided cease-fire, Israel imported cluster bombs from England of Tony Blair and launched 3 million bombs in south Lebanon (kids are still being killed and injured six years later).

This behavior was in retaliation of huge frustration and with the hope that the tiny bombs will delay the return of the inhabitants to their homes.

Amazingly, the next day of the cease-fire, the citizens in the south returned in mass, irrespective of official warnings and the destruction of all bridges

Israel goals failed on all front, and Hezbollah emerged as the first resistance force to checking Israel offensive all-out war.

Note 3: You may read the follow-up article How I spread liberty...https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2011/09/07/how-i-spread-liberty-george-w-bush-explains/

Note 4: Why Israel begged for a cease fire? https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2013/08/26/why-israel-begged-for-an-immediate-cease-fire-in-its-preemptive-july-war-of-2006/

What’s that Greater Middle East Strategy of the United States? (Dec. 29, 2005)

The success of the Khomeini revolution in Iran precipitated the direct military intervention of the USA in the Middle East. Since the end of WWII, the US enjoyed military supremacy in all the seas and oceans of the five Continents.  With the firm implantation of Israel, all that the US governments cared about the regimes in the Middle East was the maintenance of the flow of cheap oil to its market and securing open market for its exports. The US created and sustained the Iraqi-Iranian war until both parties were literally exhausted, heavily indebted, and completely depleted of any internal energy.  Then the US encouraged Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait, intervened militarily, installed its military bases in the Arabian Gulf and mandated Syria in Lebanon to put an end to this virulent corner.

China was the catalyst for an even direct military hegemony of the US in the Middle East; the plans of the US in the Near East were already drawn for capturing Iraq, the biggest oil reserve in the world, and the attack on the Twin Towers in New York delayed that invasion in order to satisfy the internal prerequisites of dealing with the Qaeda in Afghanistan. The fall of Afghanistan forced the plan to be revisited and given a more accurate geopolitical name of the Greater Middle East. 

Before the first war on Iraq in 1991, China was already viewed as the next great threat to the US in Asia; China was growing economically at a pace never experienced in the modern world as the most populous nation; this rate of increase was bewildering in its steadiness and it proved to advance unabated since then.

The US realized that this game of trade embargo on Iraq with the gimmick of oil for food deal through the UN has done its job and reduced Iraq to a skeletal, economically and militarily, and that Iraq was ready to be easily invaded.   This invasion was intended to directly secure US strategic reserve in oil when the Twin Tower tragedy struck with different political consequences in the Moslem and Arabic World. 

China was now the fasted growing economy; its demands for oil and wheat were outpacing production and thus, raising oil prices to levels that the US feared for long time.  The quagmire of the US military intervention in Iraq has so far proven to be more expensive than simply paying the increase in oil prices in the world market as dictated by the free trade agreements; this situation is aggravated by the failure to increasing Iraq’s oil production and the emergence of nearby India as another oil and gas huge consumer. 

Economically, the invasion of Iraq is a total loss for the US and the alternative is to put the squeeze on China through holding up the Iraqi’s oil reserves as bargaining chips to keep the flow of China investment in the USA and buying its bonds for much needed liquidity.  Strategically, the US is in an even bigger trouble among the population in the Middle East who regard it as the Evil Empire and the source of all terrorist activities. Iran is stable and has increased its influence among the Moslem Shiaa in Iraq and Lebanon and the Al Qaeda of Sunny salafists is spreading and becoming more virulent thanks to the negative perception of the Islamists toward the USA.

The high odds of the failure of the US economic viability in Iraq and the follow up unavoidable failure to control the flow of oil to China have the direct consequences in setting the ground of the inevitability of another World War to be fought in the Middle East and the destruction of the hated Islamic populations by both protagonists.

After the fall of Iraq by the military coalition of the United States, without the official stamp of approval of the United Nations, there has been media coverage of an ambiguous Greater Middle East (GME) policy to restoring democracy in that large undefined region.  I have a feeling that after the September 11, 2000 blowing of the Twin World Trading Towers in New York the conservative government in the USA had envisioned a grand plan to isolate the Arabic and Persian’s influenced Moslem countries through an undeclared worldwide war of attrition. 

Both the labor British and the conservative Australian governments are the cornerstone to the success of this strategy; and initially it seems that France, Germany and Russia were not merely against the invasion of Iraq but of the GME war plan of the Anglo-Saxon coalition.  At this junction, World politics exhibit a rallying of France and Germany to that plan with the exception of Russia assuming that China is not going to take side right now until its economic and military dominion in the Far East is well established by capitalizing on all the advantages that a long and protracted negotiation with the USA might generate. 

Under the threatening banner of fighting terrorism in the GME region and installing democracy and freedom of speech instead of extremist Islamic salafist religious’ dogmas the USA and its allies are encouraging civil wars among the people and splintering the region into smaller and smaller self governing nations. Every civilian killing attempts every where in the World are labeled a terrorist act and the perpetrators heaped on the Al Qaeda group which was supposed to have been wiped out in Afghanistan or in most instances blamed on other Islamic extremist offshoots.

Meanwhile, the Western Nations are enacting laws restricting freedom of speech in Media and publications, extracting war executive orders to detaining of suspects without due legal recourse, spying on their own citizens and listening on communication calls against the rules of law in the name of fighting terrorists’ plans and their organizational and financial resources and capabilities.  The political atmosphere in the USA and many European countries is heading toward applying Martial Laws and these restrictive and restraining climates against Liberty and Freedom could be viewed as training sessions for the coming open war.

What is this GME policy?  The USA was feeling comfortable after the Second World War as to its global strategic military superiority and its naval and land military bases throughout the five oceans.  The oligarchic and dictatorial regimes in the Arab World were facilitating the USA policy of dominion and Israel was its local heavy stick whenever any regime ventured to resist it by simply recovering lands captured by Israel or to exhibit independent tendencies with the support of the Soviet Union. The advent of Worldwide organized “terrorist attacks” and the inability to contain that movement with classical military interventions, mainly after the failure of the USA to maintain peace and stability in Iraq, led to a smoke screen change in the tactical approach for preserving hegemony in the Arabic Islamic World.

The code name is to divert the attention of the Islamic masses by offering minimal political representations within the oligarchic regimes which might satisfy the disposition of the people to a first step democratic level of governance and more leeway for freedom of speech and publication. It is interesting to study the small changes that the USA means to bring to the region through the electoral systems in Egypt and Saudi Arabia; at this pace these two countries might require a century before any meaningful democracy is established, for starter the female gender has still to be permitted to drive officially in Saudi Arabia.  It is also interesting to hear the howl of despair coming from the US administration every time the extremist Moslem political organizations are about to win any election; for example, Hamas in Palestine is to be forbidden to participate in the Parliamentary election if any election is to take place and the Moslem Brotherhoods in Egypt are detained and fraudulent election admitted as legitimate; the election results in Iraq need more than 3 weeks to be officially declared while the wide sweeping victory of the Islamists in Algeria was militarily canceled and savagely contained a decade ago.

Not that the people in this region care to have Islamic salafist doctrinal political systems installed, but a reaction to the complete failure of the US to regard us but merely modern slaves in an area flush in oil.  For more than 80 years, the people in every Arabic country have been trying to experiment with democratic systems and these attempts have been aborted by the tacit support of the US to monarchic, oligarchic and one party regime.  

The war strategy is not concerned with the governments, already subjugated and controlled for decades, but targeting the Moslem people in Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, Egypt, Sudan, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain and the Arab Emirates.  The Moslem countries not socially or culturally closely related to Arabic or Persian influence or having large Moslem minorities will be drastically contained through strict financial and economic constraints such as Pakistan, India, Indonesia and Malaysia in Asia and Nigeria and the Northern non Arabic African people in Chad, Niger, Mali, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Guinea.  

What is being offered is basically a psychological “feeling good” attitude toward the prospect of fair representation without any substantial variations in the system of governance that suit grandly the interests of the USA imperialists. The policy of the GME striving for mega Media propaganda of “feeling good” attitude of forthwith democratic change is a sick chimerical gamble hoping that the average masses will be tamed into moderation or the regimes would have an opportunity to win a majority that would permit them to repress the extremist elements.

The Arabic people and Moslems in general have digested the smoke screen tactics of the US and Western World and their god fatherly dialogues that make their blood curl and they cannot be fooled for long; in the mean while precious time is burned away mindlessly with no serious alternatives to genuine solutions.

So far, Iran has grasped the extent of that visible danger and has been feverishly acquiring military deterrence power, economic self sufficiency and utilizing the mass Medias to enlightening the Moslem World to the coming calamities.  The Iranian regime is diffusing the message of unity and integrity among the Moslem masses and projecting the image of confident defiance: it is steadfast on its Uranium enrichment program on its proper soil for nuclear deterrence, saving its oil production, negotiating with Russia, China and India for economic cooperation and openly casting Israel as a spearhead colony of the US in the region.  Iran is not about to relinquish its influence in Iraq or in Lebanon through the powerful political party of Hezbollah or in Western Afghanistan where its Foreign minister is currently spending a few days there to keep strong links with its citizens.  Iran is heading to become the catalyst of the next calamity with the tacit economic and military support of China and Russia.

The alternative to prevent this dangerous trend and revert to a rational and peaceful coexistence is a secular, democratic and national Arabic force to take control of its destiny. Unfortunately, what is required is inexistent, not even in its embryo, because of the perennial foolish US policy in this region of squashing the spirit of secular and democratic nationalism for short term benefits. The US cannot win the looming war in the long term in the Greater Middle East, unless the purpose is indeed to set this region ablaze and its populations impotent for centuries to come, because the masses consider the US policies as the master evil in the world in planning and execution.

The reaction of the Moslems, in face of the sustained heavy handed and total disrespect of the US policies to support our claims for human rights and fair representations and abusing the United Nations to squeeze our survival capabilities through economic and financial embargoes, is toward fundamentalism and is typified by the successes of Hamas in Palestine and the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt in the Parliamentary and municipality elections and the strong inroads of the Islamic Jihad political parties in Algeria, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Sudan in the societies’ fabrics. It seems that the Moslems are reverting to staunch dogmatic principles reminiscent of a coming war with the “infidel Crusaders” and with valid rhetorical and logical reasoning.

There are a few baffling signs that this GME policy might not survive or a more viable alternative supercede the current policy of alienating the Arabs and Moslems; for example the pressures on the Bush administration to rescind the restraining laws on private freedom and telephone and internet communication and acknowledging the flimsy basis for conquering Iraq and a popular waves of demonstrations against the all encompassing powers that the administration has snatched from Congress and concentrated in the executive branch under the prerogatives of war on terrorism.  

I am leaning toward the option that by coining the term “terrorists” to connote Islamists and acknowledging that terrorism is stronger and far reaching than contemplated that the momentum for carrying the GME policy is becoming a bipartisan policy throughout the USA and the Western World. The quagmires that the international forces are experiencing in Iraq are driving them out; though it appears a tactical maneuver to regroup and figure out a strategy to crank the vise on the GME people and let them succumb under a wretched life of lack of freedom, democracy and poor economic and social development.  The European Union is about to give up on the application of human rights in the GME and is ready to adopt shortcuts to our difficulties and may temporary let us die slowly and vanish in the night.

Let us not fool ourselves; every time discrimination on the basis of religion or color or gender or nationality or custom is condoned inside or outside the boundaries of a nation, whenever human rights are baffled, people detained on flimsy charges and without due normal legal recourse, prisoners tortured to extract confessions and killed in their detention centers then the spirit of extremism has indeed taken roots and the dictatorship system is deeply entrenched regardless of how developed a nation is or how loud they claim to have democracy and the rule of law and order among its citizens.

If we had to rely solely on the United Nations to temper the drive of the most powerful Nations, nations that have the tendency of bypassing genuine diplomatic procedures into direct military interventions toward the weaker nations, then we should be pessimistic about the coming war.  There are a few realities that might prevent outright declaration of war by the Western World to the Islamic Arabic and Persian World; first, the European Union is a complex assembly of Nations that could not be easily ruled solely by France, Germany and Britain in matters of participating in wars with multiple interactions with other bordering Nations; second, the Latin American countries are leaning toward socialism and are verbally antagonistic to USA imperialism; thirdly, the Far East with a heavy concentration of Moslems is not about to endanger its economic cooperation by internal political struggles that do not enhance their survival as a viable economic and financial block; and fourthly, Russia is too aware of the importance of the stability of its former Islamic Nations bordering Iran, Turkey and Pakistan to gamble on a fruitless policy of discrimination against the Moslem people.

However, if war is declared and any powerful nation sides with the Islamic masses and support it militarily then we might witness the prophetic vision of George Orwell for future social and political organizations based on Communist blueprints as he described in his book entitled “1984”; an era of constant low level wars among three super blocks of nations. One other thing, if another world war is declared against the Moslems our puppet regimes would collapse and, win or lose, Israel will cease to exist before an armistice is reached.

If the attack on the Twin Towers occurred during the invasion of Iraq then the US would have declared war plainly and simply and the Moslem and Arabic people would have not vacillated for so long and remained manipulated, extorted and abused by the reactionary Arabic regimes holding on for dear life.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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