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Posts Tagged ‘Hassan Hassan’

Are ISIS (Daesh) movements gaining in legitimacy after the US led bombing in Iraq and syria?

Posted by: adonis49 on: August 25, 2017

  • In: cities/geography | Essays | Events/Cultural/Educational/Arts
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‘What the Isis jihadis lose in strength from the air strikes they may gain in legitimacy’

The western-backed offensive against Isis has received a cynical reaction from people in the Middle East
Note: Since 2014, the picture has changed drastically in perspective and on the ground. This international war on Syria that dispatched 300,000 fighters from around the world is being defeated by the Syrian people, its army and Hezbollah fighters, backed by Russia and Iran. The nemesis were USA, France, UK, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Kingdom.
Qatar supported Turkey financially to insure the logistics to the extremist Islamic factions in weapons, fighters and almost everything.
Lebanon, Iraq and Syria are very close to liberate their territories from ISIS.
  • Hassan Hassan. The Observer, Sunday 28 September 2014
Protest against the US air strikes in Raqqa, Syria, 26 September 2014.
Protest against the US air strikes, Raqqa, Syria, 26 September 2014. Photograph: Reuters

Since Islamic State (Isis) were formed in their current incarnation in April last year, they have had a dilemma: how to gain legitimacy from the local population while continuing to be ruthless and genocidal against fellow Sunnis.

The decision by the American-led coalition to strike against Isis while overlooking the Assad regime seems to have resolved this dilemma for the jihadist organisation. What Isis will lose in terms of strength and numbers as a result of the air strikes they might gain in terms of legitimacy.

Air strikes against Isis were inevitable, as the group’s advances towards Baghdad, Erbil and northern Syria seemed irreversible by local forces. But the way the US-led coalition, which the UK has now joined, has conducted itself so far threatens to worsen the situation in favour of Isis.

Most importantly, by overlooking the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which caused the death of nearly 200,000 Syrians, the air strikes create the perception that the international coalition is providing a lifeline to the regime. Despite repeated reassurance by Washington, such a perception is likely to become entrenched if the Assad regime begins to fill the vacuum left by the offensive against Isis, especially that there has been no evidence yet that the opposition forces are part of the military strategy against Isis.

The regime might deliberately step up its campaign in some areas to retake areas it has recently lost to the jihadist group to reinforce that perception, as Syrian officials were quick to issue statements that the regime had been briefed about the air raids before they were launched.Many Syrian rebel factions, including ones directly financed by the Americans and the Gulf states, expressed reservations about, or opposition to, the air strikes, including Harakat Hazm, Division 13, Suqour al-Sham.

The significance of such statements is that they are issued by groups currently operating in areas outside Isis control but which are adjacent to Isis front lines. That makes them more capable than other groups of being part of potential ground forces to attack Isis under air cover. Even though some of these groups made such pronouncements mostly for practical reasons, since they are the ones who will bear the consequences of any failure to dislodge Isis as they fight on the ground, they are also concerned that the international campaign will aid the Assad regime.

Regionally, the offensive against Isis has received a similar cynical reaction from groups and people in the Middle East. The Muslim Brotherhood, including prominent figures such as Doha-based Yusuf al-Qaradawi, condemned the attacks inside Syria.

Arab countries that have participated in the international military campaign (Not in soldiers) including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, have been particularly criticised for failing to push for a formula that undermines Isis and Assad at the same time. In comparison, Iran opposed the air strikes against Isis in Syria while Turkey made it clear that the offensive would fail without moves to undermine the Assad regime, including a no-fly zone. (Turkey is becoming the main culprit in sustaining Al Nusra terrorists in north west Syria)

These attitudes mean that Isis are set to gain from the international campaign against them, if the current strategy does not change. Based on conversations with people from eastern Syria, including Isis members and sympathisers, the offensive against Isis seems to have already achieved one thing for the jihadi group: to push some Isis members who were on the periphery into their core, and neutralise some of their Islamist opponents.

Many of Isis members are new to the group and they are still ideologically uncertain. But since Isis are now face to face with a numerically exaggerated alliance led by Washington, Isis members who could otherwise shift away from the group have become more determined adherents.

Isis can afford to lose their supply lines, infrastructure and many of their members – who are likely to be among the ones who recently joined it – as long as they can compensate by achieving popular recognition. They are already adapting to the campaign, reducing checkpoints (now mostly mobile) to a minimum and relocating weapons warehouses to safe areas in both Iraq and Syria.

People inside Syria say most of the bases or facilities hit by air strikes had been already emptied. While the air raids will surely undermine Isis’s ability to generate revenue by disrupting supply lines from factories or oilfields, Isis can survive without such easy-money resources. Also, it is important to highlight that Isis have established an intricate sleeper cell system that has not been unveiled, even when they felt secure in their territories.

Legitimacy for the fight against Isis cannot be achieved by simply having Sunni countries involved in it, but, rather, by addressing the true reasons that drove tens of thousands of Syrians to rise up against the regime.

Regardless of who is involved in the campaign, the perception is that the allies have overlooked the acts of the Assad regime over the past three years and quickly assembled a major international coalition against a group that the Syrian rebels have been fighting since last summer.

Unless the strategy against Isis shifts to a broader one that appeals to the local communities, the fight against it is doomed.

(Note: the USA still air bomb the Syrian army when it approaches ISIS strongholds)

Hassan Hassan is an analyst with the Delma Institute, a research house in Abu Dhabi. @hxhassan

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Tags: adonis49, Daesh, Hassan Hassan, Isis

A 25-point ceasefire/agreement deal in Syria to last 6 months? Brokered by Turkey, Iran, UN…

Posted by: adonis49 on: September 21, 2015

  • In: Events/Cultural/Educational/Arts | social articles
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A 25-point ceasefire/agreement deal in Syria?

Brokered by Turkey, Iran, UN…

Important: The anti-Assad rebel coalition of Jaish al-Fateh has reached an agreement with Iran for de-escalation, followed by a six-month agreement.

Hassan Hassan – Blog

Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra is involved in the agreement, not only Ahrar al-Sham this time.

The 25-point ceasefire/agreement is to be overseen by the UN.

The ceasefire will take place in the southern towns of Zabadani; Madhaya; Baqeen; Sarghaya and nearby regime bases.

In the north, the ceasefire will apply to Foua; Kafraya; Binnish; Taftanaz; Taoum; Maarat Misrin; the city of Idlib; Ram Hamdan; Zardana; Shelikh.

The strict destination of those leaving Zabadani (fighters, families and wounded individuals) must be to Idlib.

The agreement states that the ”government of Iran” will work with the Lebanese government to bring back families that fled “illegally” to Lebanon, but they must be no more than 50 families.

Women and children under 18 or men above 50 can leave Foua and Kafraya but they should not be more than 10,000.

Regime will release 500 prisoners

More remarkably, the agreement stipulates that the regime will not fly helicopters or planes in those areas including to drop aid. A no-fly zone of sorts.

Agreement also includes:

  1. no arms depots on frontlines;
  2. no humanitarian blockade on Foua and Kafraya or blockade on Madhaya, Baqeen, Serghaya.
  3. No additional military defensive lines
  4. No military jets and helicopters flying over these cities

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Tags: adonis49, Baqeen, ceasefire, ceasefire agreement, Hassan Hassan, Iran, Jaish al-Fateh, Madhaya, Sarghaya, syria, Zabadani

Iraq and Syria Islamic extremist movement ISIS, Da3esh: Occupies most of Sunni majority districts

Posted by: adonis49 on: June 16, 2014

  • In: cities/geography | death/ terminally ill/ massacres, genocide | Essays | Events/Cultural/Educational/Arts | Islam/Moslem/Islamic world | political Artical | religion/history | social articles
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 Iraq and Syria Islamic extremist movement ISIS, Da3esh: Occupies most of Sunni majority districts

For a year now, one of Al Qaeda factions in Syria and Iraq ISIS has been positioning itself in the North-East region of Syria (Deir el Zur and Hasakeh along the Euphrates River) and in the Sunni dominant region of Iraq in the North-West .

Looks like Daesh was getting trained in swift warfare in Syria with objective of sweeping through the upper half of Iraq. ISIS has managed to dislodge the Nusra Front and the Jihad Islamists movement in Syria from  the Euphrates River region and linking firmly with Iraq. ISIS was involved in selling oil to Turkey from the Syrian oil fields.

After occupying Mosul, ISIS put its hands on $500 million  in the city central bank, enough to pay salaries of 20,000 fighters for an entire year.

Over half a million people fled Nineveh Province to the Kurdish dominated province of Irbil.

Jacob Siegel published on WORLD NEWS this June 13, 2014:

ISIS’s Secret Allies

The Iraqi extremist group didn’t conquer a major chunk of the country in the North-West on their own (about a fourth so far) and threatening the Capital Baghdad after entering Ba3kouba (75 km from the capital). They had help – from ex-Saddamites (led by Ezzat al Douri, second in command to Saddam), tribal councils, and many  other Islamist militants.
All eyes have been on ISIS:  this jihadist group cut Iraq within a week in half and declared its own state in the cities it captured. With fewer than 10,000 fighters ISIS forced the retreat of the better-armed Iraqi army forces many times its size.
Their incredible success on the battlefield has fed into a growing lore about the group: the small band of fanatics that can take down a country. The truth is more basic and it’s something ISIS doesn’t want to admit—they weren’t acting alone.
It wasn’t having God on their side that let ISIS conquer Mosul and Tikrit with hardly a fight, analysts say. It was the other Sunni insurgent groups that were there alongside them, unacknowledged partners in the coalition. Those groups have deep organizational roots and were instrumental in the takeover but have been largely overshadowed by ISIS.The standoff in Iraq isn’t between a single militant group and the government.

There is a broad coalition of Sunni groups—both nationalist and Islamist—who had been plotting against Iraq’s Shia government for years before ISIS’s rise provided the chance to strike. ISIS and its partners are unnatural allies. Maintaining their unity was the key to their early success, and is the only way they can hold the ground they have taken, but that incentive may prove to be weaker than the force of their natural hostilities.

“ISIS control in Mosul is contingent on political alliances they have made with the Baathists and the tribal groups,” said Brian Fishman, a fellow at the New America Foundation, who has been following ISIS since the group’s early days during the Iraq war.

“This alliance marching on Baghdad is not a natural one,” Fishman added. “We can understand how it was put together in opposition to the government but what exactly is holding it together, and how sturdy it is, is an open question,” he said.

The anonymity of the non-ISIS members in the anti-government faction wasn’t by choice. Some have used social media to broadcast their war exploits and document their control of conquered territories. It could be an early sign of fissures in the coalition that beat back Baghdad’s army.

(All images used in this story were taken with permission from the twitter account of Middle East scholar Aymenn Al-Tamimi.)

If the rebel groups begin fighting against ISIS and each other, even as they remain at war with the government, it could lead to something like Syria’s war of all against all. Iraq may not descend into the kind of protracted conflict that has ground up Syria and its people, but the days ahead will invariably be filled with bloodshed.

Hassan Hassan, an analyst at the Delma institute in Abu Dhabi, was one of the first observers to point out ISIS reliance on cooperation with Iraqi insurgent groups.

“Non-ISIS groups played a central role in the takeover,” Hassan said.

Tactical details from the past week’s offensive are hard to come by. But Hassan says the groups that cooperated with ISIS include: “The Sufi-Baathist militia known as the Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order, which has former members of the Iraqi army during Saddam Hussein’s reign. The Al Qaeda-originated Ansar al-Islam, and provisional tribal councils, many of the which are actually front groups for the Naqshbandis,” according to Hassan.

The coalition seemed—initially at least—to have tempered ISIS’ severe approach to governance, which traditionally relied on public execution as a staple of justice.

“This alliance marching on Baghdad is not a natural one. We can understand how it was put together in opposition to the government but what exactly is holding it together, and how sturdy it is, is an open question.”

“The involvement of these groups can be felt through the way the fighters treated the local population fairly well, compared to the usual notoriously brutal behavior of ISIS,” Hassan said.

It’s a point echoed by Fishman. “There has been genuine learning from this organization about how to interface with populations,” Fishman said, referring to ISIS’ experiences in Iraq and the areas it currently controls in Syria.

Because Mosul fell so quickly, with little fighting from the Iraqi army, the city appears to have been relatively unscathed by the assault that wrested it from government control. With ISIS and other anti-government insurgent factions long entrenched in Mosul they seem to have been able to quickly restore some basic services in the city.

One photo captured by Middle East scholar Aymenn al-Tamimi, who collects tweets from Iraqi insurgent groups including ISIS,  shows garbage trucks collecting trash in eastern Mosul on Thursday.

Another shows fuel tankers providing gas to a line of cars.

For all its genuine learning and operational acuity, ISIS’ conception of itself as the embodiment of God’s will is hard to reconcile with practical compromise.

The relative moderation evidenced early on may be necessary to maintain the population’s support and preserve the coalition, but ISIS has begun to impose its fundamentalist approach.

Already, the group has declared itself the sole authority in Mosul and released a set of religious laws for the people of Nineveh province. The laws laid out are no one’s idea of moderate:

– “For women, dress decently and wear wide clothes. Only go out if needed.”
– “Our position on Shrines and graves is clear. All to be destroyed basically.”
– “Gatherings, carrying flags (other than that of Islamic State) and carrying guns is not allowed. God ordered us to stay united.”
– “For the police, soldiers and other Kafir institutions, you can repent. We opened special places that will allow you to repent.”
– “No drugs, no alcohol and no cigarettes allowed.”

There are more rules on the list, but that gives a pretty good sense of their severity.

Hassan, who has been observing ISIS said, “It is expected that ISIS would try to impose itself, considering that it brands itself as a state and that it alone has the legitimacy to rule.”

“The group’s propensity for imposing its will regardless of the consequences will likely lead to confrontation and clashes with other groups. The offensive was planned together but that does not mean the old rivalries will not come up again. It is very likely that rivalry will lead to clashes.”

AP

 

 

 
 

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Tags: adonis49, Aymenn Al-Tamimi, Brian Fishman, Da3esh, Deir el Zur, ex-Saddamites, Ezzat al Douri, Hassan Hassan, iraq, Isis, Jacob Siegel, Naqshbandi Order, Nineveh province, syria

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