Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Hyperbolic discounting

The Hyperbolic Discounting: Do you think Delaying rewards is a cultural acquisition and Not related to our genes behavior?

Or maybe we still cannot fathom Discounting, Delayed profitable reward, or Faith in future promises?

Or maybe the experiments are Not well controlled, given they give $ a universal comprehension that it means “good reward”?

This “Live each day as if it was your last” crap does place huge value on immediacy that is not justifiable.

For example:

1. Would you take $1,000 a year Now or $1,100 in 13 months later? Where else can you get 120% per annum?

2. Would you prefer $1,000 in Cash now or wait another month for $1,010 ?

The 2 examples are identical in outcome.

If you could wait 12 months, you figure out that waiting 13 months is not such a bad deal.

However, the terms Now and Cash cannot be discounted so easily

How about the “marshmallow experiment“?

The 4 year-old kids would not wait another minute to get 2 pieces of marshmallow instead of a single one.

What if they are offered 3 marshmallows? Would that make a difference for the kids?

Do you believe that kids who opted to wait another minute are exhibiting a strong indication for career success stories?

Does this experiment allow us to conclude that Delaying rewards is a cultural acquisition and Not related to our genes behavior, or our state of famine?

Have the kids been screened if they already have eaten and their stomach is full? Or if they already have eaten marshmallow before joining the experiment? What if a few kids do Not care for marshmallow and prefer other kinds of sweets?

Credit card companies exploit our “must-have now” instinct and priced “this instinct” at high interest rates.

People are willing to pay extra if they don’t have to wait.

Amazon surcharge your purchase for the next-day delivery facility.

Hand a product to a customer and make him take it, and the client will most probably purchase it.

Suppose you have 2 groups of kids.

Group A is a sample of famished and poor kids.

Group B can eat anytime they want by simply opening a stuffed fridge.

You offer the 2 groups $20 if they can wait an hour before eating a chocolate bar.

Which group will be more likely to wait?

I bet group A will wait, even though they are terribly hungry and are salivating abundantly.

Do you think those in group A who managed to wait for an hour are more likely to succeed in life, because they learned the value of money and saving money?

Or maybe they got used to be famished but Not used to see a $20 bill?

Is the curiosity effect contaminating this experiment?

Suppose we have 3 experimental groups of kids and a control group:

Group A is just shown a $20 bill

Group B is instructed on the value of this bill, and shown a list of what the kids can buy with this $20 bill.

Group C is offered a reward Not connected to any monetary standard.

Group D is the “control group” and tested that they do Not differ in level of intelligence, family stability… with the other groups.

What could be your “hypothesis”?

Note: I initially posted on December 29, 2014, and added a few ideas related to how an experiment could become confounding if Not well controlled.

Are you a Procrastinator? A symptom, a cause,  a delayed diminishing value?

 posted:

Animated: Science of Procrastination and How to Manage I

This is where you insert the meta-joke about what else you’re actually supposed to be doing this very moment.

From AsapSCIENCE —

Who have previously brought us the scientific cure for hangoversthe neurobiology of orgasms, and how music enchants the brain — comes this illustrated explication of the science of procrastination and how to manage it.

A fine addition to these five perspectives on procrastination.

Among the proposed solutions is the Pomodoro technique, a time-management method similar to time boxing that uses timed intervals of work and reward.

Human motivation is highly influenced by how imminent the reward is perceived to be.

Meaning, the further away the reward is, the more you discount its value.

This is often referred to as Present bias, or Hyperbolic discounting.

For a more metaphysical take on the subject, see the fantastic anthology The Thief of Time: Philosophical Essays on Procrastination.

 

This longing desire for Immediacy: The Hyperbolic Discounting

This “Live each day as if it was your last” crap does place huge value on immediacy that is not justifiable.

For example:

1. Would you take $1,000 a year Now or $1,100 in 13 months later? Where else can you get 120% per annum?

2. Would you prefer $1,000 in cash now or $1,100 a month from now?

The 2 examples are identical in outcome.

If you could wait 12 months, you figure out that waiting 13 months is not such a bad deal.

However, the terms Now and Cash cannot be discounted so easily

How about the “marshmallow experiment“?

The 4 year-old kids would not wait another minute to get 2 pieces of marshmallow instead of a single one.

What if they are offered 3 marshmallows? Would that make a difference for the kids?

Do you believe that kids who opted to wait another minute are exhibiting a strong indication for career success stories?

Delaying rewards is a cultural acquisition and not related to our genes behavior.

Credit card companies exploit our “must-have now” instinct and priced at high interest rates.

People are willing to pay extra if they don’t have to wait.

Amazon surcharge your purchase for the next-day delivery facility.

Hand a product to a customer and make him take it, and the client will most probably purchase it.

Suppose you have 2 groups of kids.

Group A is a sample of famished and poor kids.

Group B can eat anytime they want by simply opening a stuffed fridge.

You offer the 2 groups $20 if they can wait an hour before eating a chocolate bar.

Which group will be more likely to wait?

I bet group A will wait, even though they are terribly hungry and are salivating abundantly.

Those in group A who managed to wait for an hour are more likely to succeed in life, because they learned the value of money and saving money.

 


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

April 2021
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