Posts Tagged ‘Ibn Khaldoun’
Tidbits #51
Posted by: adonis49 on: July 5, 2020
Tidbits #51
Phenology is the “science” of observing Nature, especially in this new dangerous period of Climate Change? In 2018, Slate recommended keeping a phenology journal for this exact purpose: “In so doing, you can anchor yourself in place and be a witness to the way nature is actually responding to change, instead of dwelling on the disasters that might come.”
In 1860, Henry David Thoreau translates his nature diaries into climate charts.
People with a pure heart should be able to differentiate among laws designed for the Elite Classes and those for all the citizens
Les Etats rentiers sont characteristic par une forte concentration du pouvoir. Le véritable noblesse de base n’appartient qu’à ceux qui ont l’esprit de clan. Les revenus des butins sont difficiles a distinguer parmi le souverain et la classe de nobless. Ibn Khaldoun
Is Israel set to annex much of Palestine in 6 days? Violating international law (for a 2-State system) and ending the possibility of freedom for the Palestinian state. Europe and others can make Israel think twice, and we cannot let this pass without outcry.
On a besoin d’une colère généreuse et un rêve utopique pour confronter des actes contre nature et contre la nature: Les expériences atomiques en plein air, les camps de concentrations, les régimes totalitaires, le racism endemique et les systems apartheid, l’extermination des tribus indigenas… Et la pureté qu’il faut pour causer de grandes massacres.
La puissance politique du souverain dépend du niveau des richesses produites par le travail de l’homme et des conditions de la répartition de la richesse générée. The Asabiyya (3assabiyat) of the tribe deteriorate with the decline of the economy. Ibn Khaldoun
Is Formal Marriage important for just raising kids? Otherwise, it is formal enslavement of both parties within the sick “ownership” concept. Am I encouraging out of wedlock relationship? Unless marriage is split into two phases: the first stage is a “temporary marriage” of both parties explicitly acknowledging a purpose for having kids. The second phase is promising to raise the kids together.
Never ask someone “Do you believe in a God?“: It is none of your business. Unless it is for you own benefit to re-affirm your belief system, after having done your due diligence.
It should be a personal matter in believing in a God: if your mind couldn’t be of much help, is it the responsibility of a “God” to guide you to “His existence”?
Dans l’esprit de la majorité, reconnaître l’apport des Noirs et des minorities á la construction de la nation Française (or any other colonial power) serait amoindrie la grandeur d’une nation qui pense se suffire á elle-même.
Greek former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said: Lebanese must have the courage to nationalize the banks and restructure the Central Bank, issue a new currency and desist from seeking IMF money…”
The notion that Covid-19 is meant to reduce earth population does Not stand the count. Degraded air quality, water pollution, traffic accidents, famine, radiation and poisonous shells… harvest 100 fold what this virus can kill. Actually, the fear is that population might increase “exponentially” with this confinement and improved air quality.
By the year 2050, there could be more plastic in the ocean than fish. And more debris in outer space than birds?
Si vous cherchez un parti politique unifiant le monde, considérez les paysans isolés: ils ont les points communs (common denominators) partout dans le monde.
Il était devenu un autre homme et le cousin n’était pas suffisamment curieux pour découvrir le changement: il lui parlait du passé.
La déportation des Amérindiens (Red Indians), le Passage du milieu, la Piste des Larmes...sont pour les American Blancs de simple catastrophes naturelles qu’il fallait remédier. Une entreprise criminelle de domination et d’expansion
L’opinion publique est un juge absolu: tous les pouvoirs lui sont subordonnés. Sauf quand l’executive décide d’aller en guerre
Tidbits #44
Posted by: adonis49 on: June 6, 2020
Tidbits #44
The US national debt (the amount the federal government has borrowed over the years and must pay back) is $23 trillion and growing. We’re paying more than $270 billion just in interest on that public debt annually. And the top two foreign countries who “own” our debt are China and Japan. (The irony is that Japan is the second most indebted nation. Go figure)
“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.” ― Frédéric Bastiat, French economist
In Minneapolis, between 2000 and 2018 unemployment rose from 6.8% to 8% among black people, while it dropped from 2.5% to 1.9% among whites. In many other US cities where protests have erupted in recent days, the pre-pandemic racial gap in unemployment is striking:
In one hour, our organs consume 100 Watts bulb. We salivate about one litter a day. The total surface of our small intestine is 7 km long
We have two sphincters: one external and one internal.The internal is ready to let go anytime, The nerves of the external is linked to our brain that gives order for the go ahead
I say: Any childhood changes (locations, schools…) is a life changing path . Too many of these child a-changing leave you stuck in a maze.
Chasing after anyone or anything demands plenty of energy. The source of that energy is Temporary Insanity.
The developed States don’t want a reduction in oil prices: they want to preserve the tax revenue in the gas stations, lest the citizens revolt for paying no legal taxes on gasoline in “free markets of demand and offer”
The US national deficit (the difference between what the government spends and the revenue it takes in) is projected to surpass $1 trillion every year.
Germany enables employers to furlough (and keep) staff, with state assistance, while the US has focused on strengthening unemployment benefits.
The 10 ASEAN countries, many of which have rapid growing economies, are importing more Chinese goods than American for the first time,
The biggest percentage drop in air pollution, no surprise, came from the aviation industry, with a 60% decline, or 1.7 million metric tons. The biggest raw drop in emissions came from surface transportation, which fell by 36%, or 7.5 million metric tons. That figure includes personal vehicles as well as trucks and domestic and international shipping. (Read lately that air pollution in Pekin has gone back as bad as before Covid-19)
Cruelty to mankind and nature? History revisited: Decline or loss of hope?
Posted by: adonis49 on: May 3, 2020
Cruelty to mankind and nature?
Why the Decline in demography? Is it because of loss of hope for any future?
Note: Re-edit of “History revisited: Decline or loss of hope? (Part 2, Apr. 21, 2010)”
In the previous article I wrote:
“History is a collection of stories that need to be revisited frequently; stories to be revised with new eyes and new knowledge, since human behavior did not change perceptibly. If any, human cruelty to mankind and nature increased by several notches.”
In general, history stories are recounted Hollywood-style, packed with actions, heroes, traitors, smart generals, and far-sighted leaders and monarchs.
Empires decline due to steady decrease in demography.
The Muslim Ibn Khaldoun, in 15th century North Africa and considered to be the first sociologist and ethnographer, wrote that when a people lose hope for a better future to their descendants they decrease the procreation rate and in periods of high hope population increases.”
If you revise history stories, you can link, with high positive correlation, between periods of luxury and fast and increase in procreation.
It is basically a mass perception of predicting the short-term evolution for survival.
For example, France was the most populous nation in Europe in the 18th century until people started reducing procreation, which affected the process of holding on to colonies.
The Napoleonic wars exacerbated this perception of instability and insecurity. It was useless giving birth so that children are sent to wars for no return in profit or hope of a better future.
You might offer a counterpoint: “How come after 70 years of slow and steady holocaust process, inflicted by the Zionist movement (Israel State) on the Palestinian people, this strategy did not slow the increased procreation of the Palestinians?”
My conjecture is that most Palestinians live in camps: Camp life would be too depressing if devoid of kids playing, laughing, and cheering up the camp. The more kids are playing around, the more hope is sustained.
Camp life creates community supports, and the discrepancies among classes are not noticeable to prevent sharing the little that families have, and to caring for kids of neighboring families.
Another example relates to demography in South Lebanon.
Even during the French mandate to Lebanon (1919-1943) the Zionist movement planned and schemed to extend the northern borders of the future implanted colony of States of Israel (recognized in 1948) to the Litany River.
The successive Lebanese governments, since Lebanon Independence in 1943, ruled as if South Lebanon was of No concern to them: no funds and no budgets were allocated to infrastructures, schools, hospitals or any kinds of development.
Then, in 1969, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and headed by Yasser Arafat, and with the support of Egypt Gamal Abdel Nasser forced Lebanon to allocate a portion of South Lebanon (Al Arkoub) an autonomous status to the PLO.
Israel was pleased with this new situation and bombed the villages in the south on pretense of reacting to the presence of the PLO.
The “inhabitants” in south Lebanon started to vacate their villages and flocked to the suburbs of Beirut (Al Dahiah).
As the civil war started in 1975, the PLO was ruling as the de facto State in South Lebanon.
Regular mass immigrations of Lebanese Shiaa to Africa and elsewhere set in.
South Lebanon was in the steady process of being depleted of its inhabitants, which should have satisfied Israel’s great dream.
Israel decided on the worst strategic blunder ever: Israel of Begin and Sharon invaded Lebanon in 1982, the Israeli army entered Beirut, and the military wings of the PLO were chased out to Tunis, and thus freeing south Lebanon from the hold of the PLO.
Israel resumed its blunder and decided to occupy south Lebanon for 25 years.
That is how purely Lebanese Resistance to occupation from many political parties started in full fledged. The Islamic regime of Khomeini in Iran extended new religious zeal, an ideology, organization, training and arming a Shiia splintered faction of AMAL named Hezbollah.
The tide had turned. Israel was forced to vacate south Lebanon unilaterally in 2000. The Lebanese returned to their villages with greater hope in the future.
Israel tried another attempt in 2006 to chase out Lebanese from the south during an intensive and savage 33 days preemptive war.
Israel covered the land with over 3 millions cluster bombs imported from Tony Blair of England. The purpose was to scare people off from returning to the south.
The day the UN declared cease-fire, people returned the same day to the south and not waiting from the government to declare the trip safe.
Makeshift bridges were erected (Israel had bombed out all bridges and highways) and where cars and trucks could not cross, then walking was as good a means of transport.
Currently, the border villages in Lebanon are witnessing boom in tourism and tourist facilities, yards away from Israeli tanks and border patrols. The tide has turned.
Israel may launch another savage and devastating preemptive war in Lebanon but the game is over: hope in south Lebanon is high for a better future while Israel is experiencing the worst period in lost hope for a stable Israeli State.
Israeli is reverting to its ghetto mentality and holding on to biblical archaic myths and laws.
And had built the Wall of Shame along all its borders: No see, no fear, no aches…
Note: The Shia population in Lebanon is over 50%, and increasing at a higher rate than the other 17 other religious sects.
Notes and tidbits on FB and Twitter. Part 61
La France parlementaire de la République III, d’entre les deux guerres, ne fonctionait pas: Le premier minister était convoqué personnellement en moyenne de 26 fois par mois, sans compter les ministers. Comment dans ces cas un executive pouvait faire quelque chose?
La République V de De Gaulle, qui existe toujours, a drastiquement réforme’ le system.
Les blés anciens ainsi que le riz étaient beaucoup plus nutritive. Le blé blanc les a remplacé. Et on se demande pourquoi nos corps sont intolerant a beaucoup d’aliments.
The Islamic WC (toilet), hard for the elder people, is available in the 5 continents and in every mosque: It is called “Turkish WC” by the French, Greek WC by the Turks, Bulgar WC by the Greek, Chinese WC by the Japanese…
To avoid hemorrhoids and diverticula, adopt the stooping position as in the Islamic WC. If you insist on using the western throne position for defecating, raise your legs by posing your feet on a stool so that the intestine is in direct straight position for quick and totally satisfying experience
Trump promises jobs for Americans to build weapons for Saudi Monarchy that enabled 9/11 murderers and blocked FBI investigation of 9/11 crimes
It is difficult to admit that all the experiences and wisdom we acquired can vanish at death. At least, I like to believe that conscious survives. Most probably, life is like an off/on interrupter. I never installed this kind of on/off alternatives on Apple products (Steve Jobs)
There are plenty of geniuses in human history and in all kinds of disciplines. Rare are those geniuses who could invent (intuition) and do the demonstration also.
One common traits among those rare geniuses is that they had to write down what they discovered in two versions: 1. A version for their own benefit translating their mental processes for ease recollection when re-read, and 2. A version for publication to satisfy the rational processes for the period
Anti-biotics are produced by intensive growth of particular bacteria in huge water containers: it is bacteria that generate antibiotics
The funny part, I have opted Not to drive for many years now.
From the outside, History looks like a succession of dynasties and political events. History is an independent discipline: philosophy and politics are branches.
The objective of history is to define human civilization and the social, economic and cultural events, taken in their totality, as a system.
Taking a good look from the inside, history is meant to accede to truth, to explain the causes and origins of the facts. (Ibn Khaldoun)
Zaki avait une facon ensorcelante de faire l’amour. Il remplassait par l’experience la vigueur de la jeunesse, comme un vieux footballeur compense par une grande technique son manque de souplesse. From “L’Immeuble Yacoubian” de Alaa el Aswany
La liberté ne vient pas de l’homme en tant qu’il est, mais en tant qu’il n’est pas, en tant que fini et limité. Est-ce que l’unique fondement de l’être est la liberté?
Qu’ est ce que cela veut dire? Former une volonté de réflechir a tout ce qui atteint sa pensée? A établir un courage d’exprimer sa pensée réflechit? Même si son libre arbiter est détraqué?
L’hypothése du Malin Génie: l’homme est une négation pure. Le doute de l’humain atteint tout ce qui est en dehors de sa pensée. Et de pouvoir s’échapper á toutes les tromperies.
O combien rare: On veut être libre mais on succombe fréquemment au régne de la communauté.
Seule les femmes qui portent l’eau á une grande distance connaissent la valeur de chaque goute.
“The greatest work that has ever been created by anyone so far, in all times and locations”?
Posted by: adonis49 on: July 1, 2016
- In: Book Review | Essays | social articles
- 1 Comment
The Introduction: Al Moukkaddima of Ibn Khaldoun
Greatest work ever?
“Al Moukkaddima of (Abderrahman Ibn Khaldoun al Hadrami, 1331, 1406)) is, without any doubt, the greatest work that has ever been created by anyone so far, in all times and locations”
Arnold Toynbee in his “Study of history, 1935″
“From the outside, History looks like a succession of dynasties and political events.
Taking a good look from the inside, history is meant to accede to truth, to explain the causes and origins of the facts.
“History is an independent discipline of philosophy and politics which are branches: the objective of history is to define human civilization and the social, economic and cultural events, taken in their totality, as a system (Ibn Khaldoun)”
Ibn Khladoun lived in a century of calamities: La grande peste qui tua 60% des population en France, Italie, Espagne, England and to a lesser extent in North Africa. C’etait une period de guerrre entre dynasties au Maghreb: Merinides (Maroc), Abdelwadides (Tlemsen, Algerie de L’ouest), Hafsides (Tunis, Bejaja, Biskra, Kairawan, Tripoli…)
Another nomadic influx came from western Sahara, the Almoravides, who expanded under a fundamentalism Islamic ideology and even spread to Andalusia.
What are the kinds of injustices committed by the power-to-be?
1. Speculation in trade of real estates
2. Force others to work for cheap
3. Imposing illegal taxes, mainly in indirect transactions
4. Not respecting the laws imposed on all the subjects
5. Confiscation of properties
Any law that hordes the surplus of production will quickly destroy the security and stability of a society.
All these injustices are mainly committed to satisfy the luxury standard of living of the powerful clans.
The inequalities observed in crumbling regimes are characteristics of the following processes:
1. Les etats rentiers sont caracterises par une forte concentration du pouvoir.
Le veritable noblesse de base n’appartient qu’a ceux qui ont l’esprit de clan.
les revenus des butins sont difficiles a distinguer parmi le souverain et la classe de nobless.
2. Les gains des commercants and artisans sont proportionelles aux capitaux investis. Les pratiques des classes aux pouvoirs sont de confisquees les resources qui ont degagees des surplus economiques: les prix sont administers, les taxes multiplies, et les douanes eleves
3. Ceux qui n’ont rien a gagner ou a perdre (paysans qui ont abandonnes leurs terre, petits artisans…) subissent de plein fouet toutes les pratiques rentieres et la famine est generalise. Les gens se disperssent pour trouver de quoi vivre a l’etranger
4. Le rapport economique entre campagnes et villes est ponctionne par les differentes composants de l’ économie citadine. Pour les Bedouins, leur seul espoir est d’obeir aux gens des villes
5. Dans une ville, l’inegale distribution des richesses divise les classes, et les classes les plus pauvres tendent a physiquement survivre du minimum. La cause est que la classe gouvernante delapide la richesse a des fins improductives. Toute classe sociale exerce le pouvoir sur les classes qui lui sont inferieures.
6. Donc, la puissance politiques du souverain depend du niveau des richesses produites par le travail de l’homme et des conditions de leur repartition.
7. Al Assabiyya (cohesion) des tribues se deteriore avec le declin economique .
Quand l’economie decline et le souverain (avec sa classe de clans au pouvoir) recourent a la force comme seul moyen
“Le peuple prend peur, devient deprime, cherche protection contre le souverain en recourant au mensonge, le ruse, la fraude. Cela influe sur le caractere des sujets qui se gate…
Le peuple abandonent leur roi sur les champs de batailles et s’abstiennent de le soutenir dans ses entreprises defensives…”
La politique rationnelle fonde un system de moderateur or regulateur qui a engender 2 type de systems after l’Islam:
Type 1 est le califat qui tient compte du public avant l’interet de l’administration. Il dirige les gens selon la loi divine and entend preserver la foi. Seulement la loi divine rend le califat necessaire. Les clans qui n’etaient pas de Koreiche etaient excludes du califat.
Type 2: L’interet du monarque et ses clans devient priorite . Le monarque est l’objectif naturel de l’esprit de corps
L’Introduction fut la base de nombreuse disciples comme l’economie politique, sociologie, psychologie sociale, urbanism…
Note 1: Ibn Khaldoun (1332-1406) was born in current Tunisia and died in Cairo. Written by Smail Goumeziane (former Algeria minister of Commerce (1989-1991)
Note 2: Ibn Khladoun got immersed in politics for 3 decades in the many kingdoms in current Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Grenada and witnessed all kinds of coup d’ états, persecutions and exiles. He served as Chamberlin, Grand vizir, grand Judge (cadi) and all kinds of positions. he even served as lead negotiator with Tamerlan who was besieging Damascus. He stayed with Tamerlan for 7 months and eventually this butcher reneged on the promises and entered Damascus, massacred the population and displaced its artisans to Samarkand.
Ibn Khaldoun claimed to be originally from a Hilal tribe in Hardramout (current Yemen, close to the borders with Oman). He was part of the Dawawida tribe in Biskra, from which he hired mercenaries to various sultans.
He managed to get away from politics in 1372 and lived in the fortress of Beni Salama in order to write Al Mokaddama. Prior to that date, he published Ta3rif (autobiography), Kitab Al 3ibar (Universal History), and commentaries on Al Busiri, Ibn Ruchd (Averroes) and the poet Ibn Khattib, and manuscripts on logic and arithmetics.
He travelled to Egypt in 1382 in order to join the caravan heading to the pilgrimage to Mecca and missed it. Thus, he ended up in Cairo.
In 1385, his wife and 5 daughters drowned before reaching Alexandria. His 2 other sons were Not in the convoy and met him a few months later.
Demography explains hope in future: How Empires decline?
In general, history stories are recounted Hollywood-style, packed with actions, heroes, traitors, smart generals, and farsighted leaders and monarchs. Empires decline due to steady decrease in demography rate.
The Moslem Ibn Khaldoun, in 15th century North Africa and considered to be the first sociologist and ethnographer, wrote that as people lose hope for a better future to their descendants, they decrease the procreation rate; conversely, in periods of high hope, population increases.”
If you revisite history stories, you can link, with high positive correlation, between periods of luxury and fast and increase in procreation. It is basically a mass perception of predicting the short-term evolution for survival.
For example, France was the most populous nation in Europe in the 18th century, until people started reducing procreation, which affected the process of holding on to colonies. The Napoleonic wars exacerbated this perception of instability and insecurity. It was useless giving birth so that children are sent to wars for no return in profit or hope of a better future.
You might offer a counterpoint: “How come after 70 years of slow and steady holocaust process, inflicted by the Zionist movement (Israel State) on the Palestinian people, this strategy did not slow the increased procreation of the Palestinians?” My conjecture is that most Palestinians live in camps: Camp life would be too depressing if devoid of kids playing, laughing, and cheering up the camp. The more kids are playing around the more hope is sustained.
Camp life creates community supports and discrepancies among classes are not noticeable to prevent sharing the little that families have, and to caring for kids of neighboring families.
Another example relates to demography in South Lebanon.
Even during the French mandate to Lebanon (1919-1943) the Zionist movement planned and schemed to extend the northern borders of the future State of Israel (recognized in 1948) to the Litany River. The successive Lebanese governments, since Lebanon Independence in 1943, ruled as if South Lebanon was of no concern to them: no funds and no budgets were allocated to infrastructures, schools, hospitals or any kinds of development.
Then, in 1969, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and headed by Yasser Arafat, and with the support of Egypt Gamal Abdel Nasser forced Lebanon to allocate a portion of South Lebanon (Al Arkoub) an autonomous status to the PLO. Israel was pleased with this new situation and bombed the villages in the south on pretense of reacting to the presence of the PLO.
The “inhabitants” in south Lebanon started to vacate their villages and flocked to the suburbs of Beirut (Al Dahiah). With the civil war that started in 1975, the PLO was ruling as the de facto State in South Lebanon. Regular mass immigrations to Africa and elsewhere set in. South Lebanon was in the steady process of depleting of its inhabitants, which should have satisfied Israel’s great dream.
Then, Israel decided on the worst strategic blunder ever: Israel of Begin PM and Sharon invaded Lebanon in 1982, the Israeli army entered Beirut, and the military wings of the PLO were chased out to Tunisia, and thus freeing south Lebanon from the hold of the PLO. Israel resumed its blunder and decided to occupy south Lebanon for 25 years.
That is how a purely Lebanese Resistance to occupation, constituted from many political parties started in full fledge. The regime of Khomeini in Iran extended new religious zeal, an ideology, organization, training and arms to a Shiia splintered faction of AMAL named Hezbollah. The tide had turned. Israel was forced to vacate south Lebanon unilaterally in 2000. The Lebanese returned to their villages with greater hope in the future.
Israel tried another attempt in 2006 to chase out Lebanese from the south during an intensive and savage 33 days war. Israel covered the land with over 3 millions cluster bombs imported from Tony Blair of England. The purpose was to scare people off from returning to the south.
The day the UN declared cease-fire, people returned the same day to the south and didn’t wait from the government declaring the trip safe. Makeshift bridges were erected (Israel had bombed out all bridges and highways) and where cars and trucks could not cross then walking was as good.
Currently, the border villages in Lebanon are witnessing boom in tourism and tourist facilities, yards away from Israeli tanks and border patrols. The tide has turned. Israel may launch another savage and devastating pre-emptive war in Lebanon, but the game is over: hope in south Lebanon is high for a better future while Israel is experiencing the worst period in lost hope for a stable Israeli State.
Israeli is reverting to its ghetto mentality and holding on to biblical archaic myths and laws.
Note: TheSChiaa population in Lebanon is over 60%, and increasing at a higher rate than the other 17 other religious sects.
Prophesies of “end of time”: In “Rainbow over the Levant”
Note: This article is a section of chapter 17 of the fiction novel “Rainbow over the Levant”: The Exile
In 1400, Timorlank was closing in with his Tatar hordes toward Northern Syria. The Viceroy of Aleppo was frantic and sent messengers after messengers for directions from his master the Mameluk Sultan of Egypt. He requested reinforcements and financial support but Cairo did not stir.
The Viceroys of Damascus and Hama were of no help either, and as completely in the dark as to the policies of the Sultan of Egypt. The agents of the First Emir of Lebanon reported that Egypt’s position was not to intervene at this stage either financially or militarily and to concentrate its resources in Egypt for the time being.
It seems that the advisers to the Sultan reminded his Majesty that these hordes, like the Moguls before them, never ventured into Egypt, and most of the time they retreat after capturing Damascus. They also reminded the Sultan that when Holago the Mogul decided to advance to Palestine a century and a half ago the Mameluks defeated him easily in 1260 at two major battles.
These counselors assured the Sultan that the Mameluks would repeat the previous military feats if Timorlank dared advance toward Palestine with his already exhausted forces and stressed on the facts that the previous Fatimide and Ayubid dynasties had deteriorated and their hold on power had begun to decline when they had tried to stretch their dominions into Iraq.
The Mameluk’s Viceroys in Damascus and Hama decided not to put up a fight against the Tatars and invested their time in hoarding as much money and riches as they could gather and flee in due time. Aleppo was destroyed and Timorlank entered Damascus in 1401 without a fight and transferred all its remaining artisans to Samarqand, his Capital, within a year.
Prophesies of the end of time
There were other factors accounting to this social uneasiness, apathy and helplessness. Any society facing changes in its structural order is usually ripe to the cyclical apocalyptic prophesies of the ultimate end of the World. The Levant (people living in Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine) had already experienced one such depressing mood during the lifetime of the First Emir and twice in the previous century, with a slight delay of such rumors since they were emanating from Europe.
The Fatimide dynasty in the 11th century reigned in Egypt and claimed its right to the Caliphate of the Moslems by proclaiming the imminent coming of a disappeared Imam. The decline of the Crusaders’ hold on the Levant, and lack of subsequent infusions of men and financial support, combined with the occurrence of pests or plagues prompted one of these cataclysmic beliefs within the Levant Crusaders.
The other period happened when news of the Mogul invasion were imminent and the fact that indeed Holago erased the Capital Baghdad in 1258.
In the mid 14th century, society remembered the plague that devastated Aleppo half a century before, a catastroph which added to the fear of an imminent recurrence of a Tatar invasion led by Timorlank toward Syria. These apocalyptic prophesies were shared by both Christians and Moslems. the Shiaa Moslems would preach the coming of either the 6th disappeared Imam or the 12th Imam to unite the Moslems to some kind of victory and the Christians would rely on the eschatology of Christ returning and reigning for one thousand years over a peaceful and happy World before the end of time would take place.
Antichrist finger pointing, or which power was represented by Satan, was convenient and successful in fomenting pockets of extremist sects within each religion. Actually, a century later, with the Renaissance upheaval in Europe, Luther was able to establish his religious Reforms by capitalizing on the fears spreading in Europe of the coming of the end and using the advancing Ottoman armies toward Vienna as the sign of an angry God punishing the Christians for following the teachings of the Roman Catholic Church who forgot the Word of God.
After the devastation of Aleppo, the First Emir realized that his stay might induce Timorlank into driving a hard bargain over the Levant; he determined that his high profile in the region was a liability to the Levant. He nevertheless ordered Gergis to join Ibn Khaldoun’s mission waiting to meet with Timorlank encamping around Damascus and to try reaching an agreement that would spare the Levant from further distresses.
Ibn Khaldoun was the famous 14th century Arabic North African author of “History of Civilizations” and he met with Timorlank camping outside Damascus and made him promise not to exact his vengeance on the population; a promise that Timorlank never kept. Most of the craftsmen and merchants had evacuated Damascus and fled to Lebanon and Egypt while the remaining craftsmen were denied exiting this city after the hordes of Timorlank sacked it and would be transferred to Samarqand the Capital of the Tatar. In disgust at his helplessness and the inaction of Cairo the First Emir decided to travel overseas for an extended period until the political situation was stabilized.
Although the societies in Syria, Lebanon and part of Palestine suffered economically and organizationally, the Mameluks in Egypt retained their cohesion and managed to survive another century before they were defeated militarily by the ascending Ottoman Empire in 1516.
PaHistory revisited: Decline or loss of hope? Not the Palestinians! Part 2
Posted by: adonis49 on: April 22, 2010
History revisited: Decline or loss of hope? (Part 2, Apr. 21, 2010)
In the previous article I wrote: “History is a collection of stories that need to be revisited frequently; stories to be revised with new eyes and new knowledge, since human behavior did not change perceptibly. If any, human cruelty to mankind and nature increased by several notches.”
In general, history stories are recounted Hollywood-style, packed with actions, heroes, traitors, smart generals, and far-sighted leaders and monarchs. Empires decline due to steady decrease in demography.
The Moslem Ibn Khaldoun, in 15th century North Africa and considered to be the first sociologist and ethnographer, wrote that when a people lose hope for a better future to their descendants they decrease the procreation rate; in periods of high hope population increases.”
If you revise history stories, you can link, with high positive correlation, between periods of luxury and fast and increase in procreation. It is basically a mass perception of predicting the short-term evolution for survival.
For example, France was the most populous nation in Europe in the 18th century until people started reducing procreation, which affected the process of holding on to colonies. The Napoleonic wars exacerbated this perception of instability and insecurity. It was useless giving birth so that children are sent to wars for no return in profit or hope of a better future.
You might offer a counterpoint: “How come after 70 years of slow and steady holocaust process, inflicted by the Zionist movement (Israel State) on the Palestinian people, this strategy did not slow the increased procreation of the Palestinians?”
My conjecture is that most Palestinians live in camps: Camp life would be too depressing if devoid of kids playing, laughing, and cheering up the camp. The more kids are playing around the more hope is sustained.
Camp life creates community supports and discrepancies among classes are not noticeable to prevent sharing the little that families have, and to caring for kids of neighboring families.
Another example relates to demography in South Lebanon. Even during the French mandate to Lebanon (1919-1943) the Zionist movement planned and schemed to extend the northern borders of the future States of Israel (recognized in 1948) to the Litany River. The successive Lebanese governments, since Lebanon Independence in 1943, ruled as if South Lebanon was of no concern to them: no funds and no budgets were allocated to infrastructures, schools, hospitals or any kinds of development.
Then, in 1969, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and headed by Yasser Arafat, and with the support of Egypt Gamal Abdel Nasser forced Lebanon to allocate a portion of South Lebanon (Al Arkoub) an autonomous status to the PLO.
Israel was pleased with this new situation and bombed the villages in the south on pretense of reacting to the presence of the PLO.
The “inhabitants” in south Lebanon started to vacate their villages and flocked to the suburbs of Beirut (Al Dahiah).
As the civil war started in 1975, the PLO was ruling as the de facto State in South Lebanon. Regular mass immigrations of Lebanese Shiaa to Africa and elsewhere set in. South Lebanon was in the steady process of being depleted of its inhabitants, which should have satisfied Israel’s great dream.
Israel decided on the worst strategic blunder ever: Israel of Begin and Sharon invaded Lebanon in 1982, the Israeli army entered Beirut, and the military wings of the PLO were chased out to Tunis, and thus freeing south Lebanon from the hold of the PLO. Israel resumed its blunder and decided to occupy south Lebanon for 25 years.
That is how purely Lebanese Resistance to occupation from many political parties started in full fledged. The Islamic regime of Khomeini in Iran extended new religious zeal, an ideology, organization, training and arming a Shiia splintered faction of AMAL named Hezbollah.
The tide had turned. Israel was forced to vacate south Lebanon unilaterally in 2000. The Lebanese returned to their villages with greater hope in the future.
Israel tried another attempt in 2006 to chase out Lebanese from the south during an intensive and savage 33 days preemptive war. Israel covered the land with over 3 millions cluster bombs imported from Tony Blair of England. The purpose was to scare people off from returning to the south.
The day the UN declared cease-fire people returned the same day to the south and not waiting from the government declaring the trip safe.
Makeshift bridges were erected (Israel had bombed out all bridges and highways) and where cars and trucks could not cross then walking was as good a means of transport.
Currently, the border villages in Lebanon are witnessing boom in tourism and tourist facilities, yards away from Israeli tanks and border patrols. The tide has turned.
Israel may launch another savage and devastating preemptive war in Lebanon but the game is over: hope in south Lebanon is high for a better future while Israel is experiencing the worst period in lost hope for a stable Israeli State.
Israeli is reverting to its ghetto mentality and holding on to biblical archaic myths and laws. And had built the Wall of Shame along all its borders: No see, no fear, no aches…
Note: The Shiaa population in Lebanon is over 50%, and increasing at a higher rate than the other 17 other religious sects.
I am revisiting
Posted by: adonis49 on: April 21, 2010
I am revisiting history; (Apr. 21, 2010)
History is a collection of stories that need to be revisited frequently; stories to be revised with new eyes and new knowledge. Human behavior did not change perceptibly; if any, human cruelty to mankind and nature increased by several notches. Suppose the worst despots of antiquity or even two century ago witnessed the two world wars that afflicted mankind within 30 years and then he watched the news of the dropping of two atomic bombs within a week then, how would he react comparing his atrocities compared to current mankind behaviors?
In general, history stories are recounted Hollywood style packed with actions, heroes, traitors, smart generals, and foresighted leaders and monarchs. Sure, the new Anglo-Saxon of Protestants landing in the US killed and massacred far more Indians than the Spanish Conquistadors managed to inflict in Latin America but these behaviors do not account for the disappearance of the Indians in the USA. It is the slow and steady holocaust strategies applied on the Indians that did the trick. Indians died the slow death from new diseases they were not immune to them; they died the non hero death in more pain and suffering than gunshot wounds. The Indian were first chased out of fertile lands and then even the bison was denied them. As the herd of bisons arrived from the Canadian plains they were slaughtered for their fur by the new white comers. Indians who might have acquired some immunity to white diseases had to die of famine, depression, and loss of all hope in a future for the survival of their descendents. Thus, Indians stopped procreating in this new world of cruelty and blatant discrimination.
The Moslem Ibn Khaldoun in 15th century North Africa, considered to be the prime sociologist and ethnographer, wrote that when a people lose hope in a better future then they decline procreating; when a people has high hope for their descendents then population increase. If you revise history stories you can link, with high positive correlation, between periods of luxury and fast and increase in procreation. Once people realize that their sons have high chances to die in successive wars, be maimed or and made prisoners for nothing in return then they refrain from procreating; thus, the Empire starts a slow but steady decline. Moslem Arab armies with rudimentary arms defeated the two main Empires of Byzantium and Persia within 20 years: thirty years ago, Byzantium and Persia waged non stop wars against one another to recapture a district here and another one there. The two people were already exhausted emotionally to enlisting soldiers and bankrupt economically to hiring mercenaries.
You might offer a counterpoint: “How come after 70 years of slow and steady holocaust process inflicted by the Zionist movement (Israel State) on the Palestinian people this strategy did not slow the increased procreation of the Palestinians?” My conjecture is that most Palestinians live in camps: Camp life is too depressing if devoid of kids playing, laughing, and cheering up the camp. The more kids are playing around the more hope is sustained. Camp creates community supports and discrepancies among classes are not noticeable to prevent sharing the little families have and caring for kids of neighboring families.
The Sultan famous host
Rainbow over the Levant (a novel)
Antoun, President of Mount Lebanon, drove in a modest caravan to Acre and boarded a Levantine navy ship to Alexandria where he was met by the dignitaries, the remaining personnel of the Levant Consulate and emigrants…
After two days of sight seeing in Alexandria, he headed out in a lush caravan to Cairo to meet the Sultan.
The Grand Vizier of Egypt welcomed him with the customary protocol and the President was made to wait a whole week for an appointment with the Sultan. The President of the Levant offered his valuable gifts and presented to the Sultan the respect of the Levantine government and citizens and reminded him of his loyalty toward the maintaining of peace, security and prosperity throughout the Mameluke empire. The Sultan accepted the gift with modest thanks, followed by immediate denouncement:
The Sultan: “We have been hearing disturbing news about your lack of loyalty to our authority. We will allow the Grand Vizier to speak now”.
The Grand Vizier (GV): “We have been receiving very alarming reports for many years of your friendship with many infidel Monarchs and Princes. As you surely know, His highness the Sultan and his forefathers have sacrificed dearly to defeat and chase out the infidel Crusaders from our lands.
We have been vigilant and swore to God Almighty never to permit the infidels to desecrate our Holy Lands again. You have been dealing with the infidels for more than 25 years and you graciously welcomed them to travel throughout our dominion with your full knowledge of how it displeased our Highness the Sultan of all Egypt, Syria and Palestine.
You fled like a rabbit before the barbarian Tatars, leaving our riches and interests to be captured and our Moslem believers at their mercy without any opposition to save our Majesty’s Honor and Dignity.
You have been gallivanting in the infidel’s kingdoms, eating their bread, salt and their dirty pork meat, drinking wine with total disrespect to our values, tradition and customs.
We have been very patient with your behavior and allegiances because you paid the requisite tributes on time and managed to establish peace in his Majesty’s kingdom with little financial recourse to our treasury, but we have run out of patience lately. You have been killing and executing Moslem believers without due recourse to our religious legal system or the approval of the appointed Viceroys.
You have disturbed our governing system, proclaimed a heretical written Constitution against the well founded rules and laws of the Chariaa and the Holy Koran.
You went even as far as giving yourself a new title of President that His Majesty the Sultan loath from the bottom of his heart. We have every reason to suspect that you intended to part company with our cherished Sultan of all Egypt, Syria and Palestine. Can you respond to these charges of treachery and disobedience?”
The President calmly retorted:
“For 25 years, not a single European army dared to set foot on our Holy Land from the confines of Turkey to Northern Africa and our honor is preserved. His Highness knows perfectly well that had we had the means to fight the barbarian Tatars we would have fought them as lions and would have saved Aleppo and Damascus from the infamy of falling in the hands of Timorlank.
I chose a harsh exile from my homeland, including Egypt, to save our citizens from Timorlank wrath to carry out his threats of invading our lands as reported to me by Ibn Khaldoun the messenger.
I kept my part of the bargain and stayed away as long as Timorlank was in Damascus. I don’t eat pork and don’t like wine; otherwise my people would be too drunk to keep the peace.
I delayed as much as I could to ratify the written Constitution, but public pressure, without your political support in that difficult period, forced my hands to signing a system of government that was not to my liking also. I would be pleased if your Majesty deigned to mention the names of his counselors who dared to spread calumnies in his presence.”
The GV: “I humbly ask his Majesty to permit the deletion of the last infamous sentence of this long list of unfounded rejoinders.”
The Sultan: “It would be almost impossible to restrict the number of informers and advisers, since we have been listening to these charges for many years with accumulated validation.”
The President: “I empathize with your Majesty. I have been surrounded also with many close counselors who said what they thought would please my ears and chased away from my presence the just and honest people who had valid claims and recriminations.”
The GV: “Your Majesty, it seems that this infidel Emir from Mount Lebanon is taking much liberty in your presence.”
The President: “Your Majesty, before the infamous invasion of the barbarous Tatars of Syria, Mount Lebanon enjoyed prosperous trade relations with mighty Egypt and every one was well off and praying for the long life of Your Majesty. If these trade embargoes are lifted we certainly would have the means to save the integrity of His Majesty’s territory. We always have been straight in keeping our word and delivering on agreements as the Grand Vizier acknowledged.”
The Sultan: “We will be hearing more of you in the coming month. You may dispose safely and in honor.”
The Sultan was biased to his close counselors who harshly denounced the President as an agitator to foreign powers and kept reminding the Sultan that he was the sole Emir in the Mameluk’s Empire who dared visit the kingdoms of the execrable European invaders. These couselors mercilessly hammered the fact that for two centuries the Crusaders desecrated the Moslems religious sites and prevented the Moslems going on pilgrimage (haj) to Jerusalem.
A month later, the President was confined to a small villa. The retinue of the President was drastically reduced and visitors had to be granted special permission from the Grand Vizier of Egypt. Three months later, the President of the Levant was officially detained.
The government back home showed unanimous support for its leader and decided to put up an all out resistance to the aggressor coming from Turkey in honor of the new pride, freedom and self determination they had enjoyed for three decades.
Adonis Diaries 