Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘International Court on Lebanon

What’s going on in Syria? Any insider pieces of intelligence? Part two

That may have been the longest and most terrifying week for the Syrian president Bashar Assad.  External interventions could not scare the Syrian regime, but vast internal unrest is another different story to consider very seriously.

For example, since 2005, the French president Jacques Chirac had a priority and a fixation to dismantle the one-party rule in Syria, especially the Assad oligarchy that ruled Syria since 1971.

Chirac blamed Syria for the assassination of ex-prime Minister Rafic Hariri and did his best to condemn Syria via the International Court on Lebanon.

US President Bush Jr. also wanted this occurrence as Syria initially refused to support the unilateral US invasion of Iraq in 2003, until Bush discovered that he badly needs the cooperation of Syria with the open vast borders with Iraq.

France Sarkozy and Obama  are no longer interested in exercising any seriuos pressures on Syria: Syria is entirely off the hook from the International Court on Lebanon.

Obviously, Israel relied on the Assad family and did its best convincing rhetorics for that clan to remain in power:  The Israeli occupied Golan Heights were the most secure and safest place on earth since 1973.

Information on the two-week long uprising and demonstrations in several Syrian cities and the Capital Damascus are controversial and not covered in details.  There are intended blackout by most media channels, western, and Arab States for disseminating useful intelligent pieces.

A few cable news mention over 100 killed, particularly in the southern city of Daraa, on the borders with Jordan.  The Syrian media displayed arms stocked in the Daraa mosque and denunciation of violent infiltrated elements.

The Syrian dictatorial regime responded with promises of vast reforms from instant increase in wages, the release of  political prisoners, laws on forming political parties to be reviewed, and more freedom of expressions… The Syrian Baath party faction is to meet today for critical analysis of the situations and considering alternative reforms.

Bashar Assad is a young dictator and serious about development reforms, as all young dictators think.  For example, Qadhafi, Abdel Nasser, Abdallah Saleh of Yemen…were very promising figures of their period.

It would be tough for Bashar to reconsider giving away the oligarchic interests of the Assad extended family.

Most probably, the Syrian people want a moratorium on dictators, oligarchy, and absolute monarchies.  Sort of it is okay, a decade later, for these forms of governance to return to the front scene?

For the time being, most people are exhausted with decades of dictatorial regimes and want some fresh air to blowing away layers of technocrats that were trained to be amoral and unethical by serving the enduring power-to-be.

The steadfast and determined mass protests are the result of the population knowing full well the vengeful tribal mentality of their rulers:  The masses know that if they relent before the entire structure is gone and that any reprieve to the oligarchic system means the reorganization and launching of mass arrests, summarily executions, humiliation tactics, and an open climate of terror.

The Determination of the masses is the result of innate survival process:  Either they win or they are massacred.

Do you think that the Ben Ali and Mubarak would have learned the lesson of respecting their people desires and wants? In Yemen, the people are not relinquishing their marches since the uprising started a month ago:  They know the reactions of the kinds of Abdullah Salef if he is given a breathing space.  Anyone doubt that Qadhafi would not have wiped out a third of the Libyan population if the UN postponed indefinitely any resolution for imposing a “No fly zone”?

You have an excellent demonstration of what’s happening in Bahrain:  The King has arrested all the leaders of the uprising, is readying to hire one thousand Pakistani soldiers, cut diplomatic relations with Iran and Lebanon on the basis that Hezbollah denounced the strong arm tactics of this monarchy, and prohibited the Lebanese immigrants, legally working in Bahrain, from returning home and considering every Lebanese as enemy to their stupid monarchy, and on… Do not be surprised when you hear news of blatant atrocities and crimes against humanity are perpetrated openly in Bahrain.

In 1980, Hafez Assad encircled the city of Hama with his special troops, entered the city, and never ever left the city.

There were no serious coverage of what happened.  Every now and then, when the US is unhappy with the regime of Hafez, innuendos would circulate that Assad slaughtered 20,000 Syrians living in Hama.  It is an unbelievable number to take seriously:  Just disposing of the bodies of a number of that magnitude in a short time would overthrow any regime, even Hitler and Stalin.

In any case, many Sunni Moslems in Hama, expressing dislike for the Alawi regime, disappeared.  No international court or any indictment by the UN ever materialized.  Nobody know, even today, the number of casualties:  Not the exact number but the scale; is it in the dozen, hundreds, or thousands…?

On Friday of last week, mass upheavals were spreading in Syria; from the city of Daraa by the borders with Jordan, to Banyas, Tartous, Homs, and way to the north in the Kurdish region.  Last week, there were a couple of shy demonstrations localized in Damascus demanding the liberation of political prisoners.  Four demonstrators were killed in Daraa.

President Bashar Assad sent two official delegates to pay condolence to the bereaved families of the dead citizens.  As they finished their visit, the two delegates had three more casualties on hand.

The Syrian government blamed “infiltrators” disguised in internal security outfit to ordering live ammunition shooting on peaceful marchers.  The infiltrators also burned the headquarter of the one-party Baath regime and the court of justice in the city.  You have to admit that the “infiltrators” are awfully skilled:  The government security specialists have proven to be no match to infiltrators.

The President Bashar Assad had decreed last week the liberation of most prisoners, political and non political, those over 70 years and the terminally sick…Maybe it was just a promise?  As all promises that the people have been hearing for decades?

I guess Bashar forgot to mention that the political system needed to be reformed and that the Assad regime, father to son, since 1971, has to make rooms for democratic succession and away from a “one-party” rule.

Syria has grown to 20 million in population.  Amid the turmoil in the Middle-East, Syria of the Assad socialist regime managed to bring sort of stability and security; it maintained a steady currency and invested in decent infrastructure and schooling for all.  Invariably, oligarchic regimes ends up getting involved in widespread corruptions and considering the State Treasury as family holdings.

Bashar succeeded to his father in 2000.  Israel unilaterally retreated from south Lebanon in 2000, quickly and never turning back to facing the deadly blows of the Lebanese resistance forces.  Instead of announcing a timetable for the retreat of Syrian troops from Lebanon, the new Syrian President got immersed resolving side problems and affirming his power, until Hariri was assassinated in 2005 and the Syrian troops felt it wise to retreat from all Lebanon.

The Assad regime is based on the minority Alawi sect, a kind of Shia sect, and most of the sensitive positions in the army and internal security system are in the hands of the extended family members.  The Syria Baath party made alliance with a few political parties for the Parliament, but there is a deep sense that the structure of this regime is fundamentally an oligarchic system.

The Syrian regime masterfully kept diplomatic dialogue with the US  Administrations and reached many tacit agreements in cooperating with the US in Iraq, even though Syria is included in the “black list” as a “rogue State” not entirely supporting the US policies.

Syria maintained a strong alliance with Iran for three decades and currently extended firm alliance with Turkey.  The regimes of Mubarak of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan kept the squeeze on Syria by orders from the USA for two decades.  Syria had close ties with Libya of Qadhafi and is still supporting Qadhafi with jet pilots, until the “No Fly Zone” was established.

Two days ago, Syria announced its support to the expeditionary Saudi forces in Bahrain on the premises that these forces were legitimate since they were demanded by the King of Bahrain!  In the meanwhile, Iran vehemently denounced these incursions into Bahrain and is against Qadhafi.  Thus, Syria flaunted Iran’s policies in the region twice in less than two days.  Syria is wooing the alliance of Egypt and Saudi Arabia in order to ward off the current mass Arab uprising everywhere.  Maybe Syria made a hasty move away from Iran before securing its internal stability with new political reforms.

It is obvious that no foreign alliances can withstand the new wrath of the people for everlasting regimes of dictators, one-party regimes, and absolute monarchies.

Lebanon youth have been demonstrating for a secular political structure.

The monarchy in Morocco is witnessing mass upheavals in 40 cities.

Time for outraged is not going to subside any time soon.

A Tunisian graduate citizen, Mohammad Bou Azizi, out of work (thousands other graduates out of work for 5 years) set fire on his body and catalyzed a popular revolution against a “President for life” named Ben Ali, who expected to rule more than 23 years.  The Tunisian President tried to mock the people: He first promised jobs for all university graduates within a year; then he promised not to run for the Presidency in 2014, then he fired the minister of the interior, then he fired the military chief-of Staff for refusing to shoot on the demonstrators, then he asked his second wife to flee with 1.5 tons of gold; but he forgot to promise that his oligarchy will not extend their power in 2014 and beyond.   Ben Ali fled the country to Saudi Arabia, a week after the mass upheaval.  The association of lawyers strongly backed the people; a pilot, Mohammad Kilani, refused the boarding of the Ben Ali family and relatives seeking exile and were arrested.

In Lebanon, the opposition parties in the coalition of “Union government” finally decided to fire Saad Hariri PM as he was meeting with President Obama in the White House.  It was a strong message that western political pressures are no longer remedies to local troubles.  An opposition leader, Michel Aoun said: “Saad behaved as if he were a King, the PM for life and didn’t need permission from the government to travel non-stop around the world and discarding rules, regulations, laws, and the concerns of the Lebanese citizens”. 

In Tunisia, the former Mohammad Ghannouchi PM re-constituted a provisional “National Union” government for preparing the next election within three months; he liberated the political prisoners, and has promised to legalize the Islamists and communist parties.  The Tunisian people is still highly restless: The people is saying: “No to a government with four previous rotten ministers holding the key positions.  We want a new Constitution, a new election law, a new parliament and a new government.”  Four ministers resigned and a newer government must be in the making:  The foreign minister was recalled promptly while meeting in Egypt for an Arabic summit of some kind.

In Lebanon, President Suleiman was to start the rounds of political parties nomination for another PM on Monday Jan. 17; and then he postponed the decision for the next Monday.  Why?  The leaders of Turkey, Syria, and Qatar were meeting in Damascus to “ironing out” a resolution according to the deal agreed upon by Syria and Saudi Arabia since September.  Syria has refused the suggestion of French President for a council of heads formed of France, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria to finding a resolution to Lebanon’s crisis:  Syria is not about to let Lebanon (on its backyard) be controlled by an international take carer. To make things worse, Bellemare of the International Court on Lebanon, presented his act of accusations to Fransen.  The streets are witnessing peaceful demonstrations so far in reaction to the politically timed International Court accusations.

Tunisia is making most “dictators for life” in the Arab World feeling their heads, as next in line to falling such as Mubarak of Egypt, Kadhafi of Libya, the King of Jordan, Bouteflika of Algeria, and Abdallah Saleh of Yemen, Omar Bashir of Sudan… For example, Saleh of Yemen dropped the proposition in the Constitution for President to life;  Kuwait has released 4 billions of dollars for free food and subsidies to the Kuwaiti citizens, Bashir of Sudan incarcerated Al Turabi (former PM) for fear of setting off mass demonstrations…  So far, the Arab World has witnessed 13 individuals setting fire on their bodies from Mauritania, Algeria, Egypt, and Sudan; many were terribly unlucky and suffering horribly from third degree burns. 

Lebanon is making most foreign powers such as the EU and the USA fearing of losing a sustainable stronghold in Lebanon and taking Lebanon hostage for many years to come through the UN resolutions and the International Court for Lebanon that has been dragging its feet for 5 years.   The Syrian and Saudi deal is for declaring nul and void the institution of International Court for Lebanon by an illegitimate government in 2005 during former Seniora PM; the recalling of Lebanese judges, and stopping Lebanon’s funding of the court that amounted to $40 million each year.  By Sunday evening, there was some kind of a deal but Saad failed to go public and pronounce his agreement.  As Bellemare preempted the deal by presenting his “act of accusation” the Lebanese chairman of the Parliament declared that “what was agreed upon before the act of accusation is no longer valid and pretty much redundant”, meaning “Saad, you may kiss your chances “good-bye” for being selected PM”.  Fact is, Saad Hariri is primarily a Saudi citizen; what he knows of Lebanon was done during his vacation periods; his boss is the Saudi monarch and his superboss is the US Administration.

Lebanon is a week away from a qualitative jump into a new motto “Lebanon strength is not in its weakness; it is by increasing its strength retaliating against Israel’s preemptive attacks and uniting the people, the army, and the resistance against foreign military and political pressures”. 

Lebanon is a week away from taking the high road to equitable democracy:  The citizen is no longer subjected to behaving as chattel to local feudal leader (being bought, sold and transferred) at the whim of the local leader; no longer pressured to vote for his sectarian affiliation, ready to taking to the streets for retaining his acquired rights and claiming long-awaited laws (agreed upon) but taking too long to be enacted by the Parliament.

Lebanon is a week away from feeling stronger than in any previous periods; a Lebanon rich in its diversity, and in harmony with its own people in Syria, Jordan, and Palestine.

Note: Actually, the Hariri clan and their party the “Mustakbal” (Future) ruled Lebanon since 1992, almost with no interruption, and considered Lebanon as their background garden and the citizens as chattel meant to increase the financial hold of the Hariri oligarchy and extending their financial and economic domination with no restriction.  The Hariri clan constituted a shadow government to bypassing the legal and legitimate government.

Note 2: Now the Western world and the regional powers “in the pocket” of the US Administrations (such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Yemen, the Golf Emirates, and formerly Tunisia) instantly rose as a multinational institution to “seriously studying” the Lebanese case and how to circumvent the new shift in power.

Note 3: Fact is, 65% of the Lebanese side with the “opposition movement” and are aware that the previous oligarchy is not serious pondering on their daily needs, long awaiting reforms in the legal system, the election law, the strategic plans for resisting Israel’s frequent invasions of the territory, the obsolete education system, the archaic political and social structure, the health, economic development, taming the increase in foreign debts, enhancing the quality and quantity of potable water, the affordability and availability of electrical power, and opening work opportunities for graduates and workers…

The Lebanese citizens, and much less the foreign workers and immigrants, had no rights under any constitutions; the finance treasury was off any kinds regulations, control, and questioning by deputies or any minister:  11 billion dollars are not accounted for in the last 4 years alone, and over 2 billion in foreign loans were spent somehow and never registered officially in the finance ministry and how they were spent…

You may read a post I published 13 months ago and realize that nothing changed




March 2023

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