Adonis Diaries

Syria: Pragmatic discussions during and after the Assad regime (Part 2)

If interested in reading the first part https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2012/09/30/syria-fundamental-and-pragmatic-discussions-during-and-after-the-assad-regime/

The Syrian insurgents and the regime are happily destroying Syria infrastructure and the institutions and isolating the major cities that constituted the backbone of Syrian urban development. Old historic souks and famous tourist attractions are going in flame.

Insurgents and regime should not invest much hope on the illusion that reconstruction funding (already estimated to $60 bn in less than two years of infighting) will be forthcoming. It will trickle for decades, and the people will experience the miseries of old-time, worse than the periods of locust and cholera…

1. The US is disengaging from the Middle-East region: no return on investment of money, energy and time…Already a drastic negative return and no serious potentials for improvement.

I am convinced that all the Israeli aggressive fuss about Iran nuclear program is the realization that the US no longer envision a return on the cost for getting heavily involved in the Middle-East: This troubled and uncontrollable Middle-East region is but headaches and the sinking of too much energy and financial expenses, for just negative return.

Mind you that oil and gas are commodities in the hands of underdeveloped States to be sold in the global market, and military occupation of oil fields in Iraq turned out to be a total fiasco…and not worth contemplating in the near future…

The Far-East Asian region is the strategic new “containment” policies for the US administrations. And the US decided to focus its energy and resources on the Far-East Asian markets, where the future of economic growth and development is being taking place…

And the US is very interested in the future oil and gas resources in the 6 Central Asia States. For example the 6+2 (Russia and the US) new economic group for investing in pipelines…

2. Saudi money is practically saved for the US usage. And this absolute monarchy requires the US agreement for any lavish financial aid that Saudi Arabia proposes.  Actually, Saudi Arabia sovereign fund (if it exist) is considered an US fund, to dip in whenever the US has urgent need for liquidity…Particularly for policies that Congress denies any funding, sort of circumventing the Constitutional restrictions for the sources of income.

It is forecasted that Saudi oil reserves will not be economical to exploit within two decades, and the US will drop this monarchy as a ripe fruit, totally useless for any to take over the government.

3. The European Union is going through a harsh period of financial restructuring, and whatever grant coming from this generous union will be minimal at best. France and England have long been minimal players in the Middle East since 1968 and their services are in demands for ripe issues that require fine-tuning due to their detailed understanding of this region.

4. Any Chinese investment will be agreed upon by the US (containment policy on China economic expansion in the Middle-East), and whatever investment coming from the Chinese will be mortgaging the Syrian public sectors… In any case, China looks for vast markets, and Syria is not a viable market, and its interest is for its proximity to Europe where China is exporting heavily…

The US is trying to secure a minimum containment of Russia incursion in the warmer seas in the Mediterranean basin, kind of “don’t go beyond Syria seas shores”. That is not a big problem to the US, since its interest with Russia are far greater for its cooperation in exploiting the oil and gas reserves in the Central Asia new States…and the investment in pipelines…

The insurgents and the regime in Syria have to come to term that any resolution will be the results of internal dialogue: The US will keep a safe distance from any direct engagement in this out-of-control region.

The insurgents and the regime have to begin serious discussions on how to contain the rabid apartheid State of Israel on the border and the occupied Golan Heights. And Israel is planning to vent its anger on the US tergiversing policies in the ME by bombing Syria chemical installations and chemical weapons, another side pressure to ease the US again in the ME games.

Israel is cornered and resuming foolish total apartheid policies that are meant to “transfer all the Palestinians” from Israel. To go Where? Jordan, the weak Syria, the unstable Lebanon, the ever famished Gaza…?

For decades, Israel has been biting on large chunks not commensurate to its status as a little State with minor resources to chew on, thanks to the unconditional backing of the US and western European States…

Israel has realized that the sword is no longer a viable mean to maintain any reasonable acceptance in the region, and Hezbollah has demonstrated this concept in the preemptive war of 2006.

And how Syria after the Assad reign is going to deal with Israel? What are the pragmatic plans and programs to discuss on the negotiation table? Egypt is already opposing Israel restrictions in the Sinai and adopting this “soft containment” strategy to resist Israel’s older expansionist policies…

The Syrian army has to remain intact and be reorganized to be trusted as guarantor of civilian constitutional rules.

Turkey is aligning tanks on the border with Syria in order to create a smokescreen for its growing internal problems and the decrease in the popularity of de facto dictator Erdogan PM. Ultimately, Turkey plan is to secure a mandated power over Syria, similar to the previous mandated power of Syria over Lebanon (1990-2005).  Turkey is relying of softening the opposition of Russia by relaxing pipeline deals crossing Syria and maintaining Russia naval post in Tarsus…

The secret service should not be curtailed or punished for 40 years of running the show: Syria is going to need every skilled and trained security personnel to ward off any resurgence of foreign meddling in Syria internal affairs…

Every Syrian citizen with mass murder on his hands, and especially the commanders and decision makers must confess or face trial.  Punishment for those who confessed must be to home town arrest conditions, never to cross the town limits: The inhabitants will keep a close lookout on movement. Any further serious unlawful behavior will bring back the entire file for trial.

Starting the execution spiral has no end and will acquire a life of its own.

All these “insurgents” who took advantage of troubled periods by kidnapping and blackmailing citizens must stand trials like common criminals, and no amnesty should cover their ill behaviors…

If the insurgents wish to gain any shred of credibility as national Syrians, they have to demonstrate it by deleting all the foreign mercenaries and jihadists from their ranks and files.  The national insurgents have got to take responsibility for violence against humanity and answer to the murder of prisoners…

Foreign mercenaries and foreign jihadists must be put on trial in Syria, with no exception as to the States they are originally from…

Bashar intend of finishing his term, ending in 2013, and he has plenty of leverage left to ease in a functioning transitional government.

The current voted “reformed” Constitution is not an improvement to the previous one that was shelved for 4 decades. There should be defining fair separation among the three powers, and the President power should be curtailed.

Note: Israel thinks that only the US deep involvement in this region will keep US yearly financial and economic support, updated weapons, subsidies, free grants, lavish donations…flowing into Israel to sustain the apartheid system. Otherwise, Israel will have no choice but to consider policies as part of this region, within its means, and deal with its goyim people…

The current problem in Israel and with its lobby in the US is that this time around the stake is huge: The strategy of the US in the ME has shifted to oppose Israel wishes for continued US active involvement. The only involvement the US envision is just to secure Israel “military safety”…

Consequently, Israel and its lobby in the US have been showing signs of disarray and confusion, due to the quick pace of events that are unfolding, and behaving too impatiently, and alienating the US administration with undiplomatic terms and extreme and radical positions that are no longer tenable in the world community.

Things are changing, and Israel has to start dealing seriously with the surrounding realities, a region the US has decided to get out and let the people remove the thorns on their own… Is it why Israel is glad that Syria is being totally destabilized?  So that any negotiations with Syria will be extremely biased to the more powerful on the field?