Adonis Diaries

How serious is a preemptive military attack on Iran?

US State Secretary Hilary Clinton has recently published a lengthy essay in Foreign Affairs Journal on the future policies of the US.  The US is to focus its energy and investment on eastern Asia, from India onward to Japan and Australia, where over 35% of world population is located and where 65% of world economy is concentrated.  Half the world population will live there by 2020!

Russia is barely mentioned. Why? It appears to the US policy makers that Europe, which reached the cash cow declining cycle for the US economic interests, according to the majority of the US Think Tanks scholars, will rely heavily on Russia potentials for exporting 50% of Europe’s needs in energy, particularly gas, and the investment potentials in Russia natural resources… Let Russia, China, Brazil…buy the scrap parts of Europe’s industries and enterprises…The European university graduates and scholars have but one way out: Going west to the USA.  That’s how the US is considering the situation in the European Union States

This new trend in US strategic policies is sending a strong message that the current obstacle for the executing of the plan is to confronting Nuclear Iran.  The idea is that, as long as Iran is intent on acquiring nuclear weapons, the entire Middle-East, with its vast oil potentials, will be hostage to Islamic Iran hegemony.  Consequently, if diplomatic endeavors reach a dead-end, then a preemptive military attacks on Iran nuclear installations must be contemplated.

For example, if Iran was already nuclear, do you think that the US will be so persistent on deposing Bashar of Syria, without agreement with Iran?

It is to be noted that Iran has the military potential to close-off the Arab/Iranian sea strait for any oil shipping tankers…The US will be tempted to go it all out in the war because Iran does not need very sophisticated weapons to deter oil tankers from approaching the strait to replenish in Saudi Arabia oil and Qatar liquefied gas.

Russia will gain the most from “reducing” Iranian military might. Why? All Iranian oil and gas export will have to use the land pipelines linking Russia to China and Russia to Europe… In addition, Iran will purchase more heavy military hardware from Russia…Iran will inevitably become Russia sphere of influence for long time.

China is the main country exporting nuclear equipment to Iran and importing 50% of its oil and gas from Iran. But this is not a problem to China.  The negotiations between the US and China are to iron out two sticky difficulties:

First, China wants full guarantees that Iran oil infrastructures will not be damaged in the war, and that Iranian oil be permitted to reach China through the Russia/China pipeline across the central Asian States. Exports of Chinese products should not be included in any embargo or economic sanctions.

Second, the US wants full guarantees that oil prices will stay affordable during the war, until a peace treaty is signed, and that shortages in oil and gas export to Japan and the rest of the developed States be covered by China and Russia.

The US can unilaterally destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and ensure airspace security for aerial attacks.  The question remains: How far is Islamic Iran willing to suffer in order to keeping the strait closed-off for oil shipment?

In any case, Iran will eventually win in the medium-term, regardless of military damages. Why? The US wants out of this Greater Middle-East nightmare region, and this is not possible until Iran obtain hegemony over the Island Emirate States of Bahrain and Qatar, and possibly, a percentage on Saudi Arabia oil production. Iran will demand and obtain these conditions in order for the US to succeed a negotiated peace treaty. Mind you that destroying nuclear facilities does not mean that Iran will feel pressured to kneel under any conditions.  Maybe Iran welcomes a preemptive attack in order to shake off its internal problems and acquire a few more friends, and strengthen its influence in Iraq and Afghanistan…

So why launch this preemptive war if any regime in Iran will invariably be Islamic? What’s all this fuss again?