Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Jihad Zein

Has Erdogan of Turkey lost it? Ill-health, internal troubles, increased external alienation…

Erdogan is ruling Turkey since 2002, backed by his Moslem Brotherhood “Justice and development” Party.  Any ruler in power for 10 years is bound to become a de facto dictator, no longer in touch with the needs of his people, the little people who want earthly kinds of happiness: Food, health, security, equality in entitled rights and responsiblities…

All the “democratic” gimmicks of fair elections cannot obscure the smokescreen tactics: Erdogan has been trying to convince the world community that Turkey is on the proper path to peaceful democratic transition of power…

Erdogan has lost it:

1. He is in terrible ill-health. He refrained from appearing in public for over 6 months and the very few new pictures of him are devoid of good health…

2. Instead of focusing his attention at resolving the Kurdish problem, integrating the kurds are equal citizens with fair treatment…Erdogan is boasting of having killed 500 Kurdish insurgents this month alone…and vowing to eradicate thousands of them by military operations…

3. The Kurds counter-reactions are as violent…cars have been exploding in large cities in Turkey and in the Capital Istanbul…and the military operations are increasing and the insurgents are learning to cope and return to the offensive…

Mind you that the internal instabilities in Turkey are much prior to the Syrian uprising. Most probably, Erdogan figured out that turning against the Syrian regime might unite the Turkish “Nation” against a fictional enemy…and relieve him from his internal pressures and delaying their resolutions…

Syria has turned down the proposal of Erdogan to help him militarily to crush the Kurdish unrest on the borders…

4. Turkey has antagonized many surrounding States, such as Iran, Iraq, and the States around the Black Sea. The previous strategy of making peace with all the surrounding States has gone to pieces. Why? The Turkish regime is turning authoritarian and nationalist chauvinist, and adopting the Attaturk slogan “Turkey is for the Turks”

5. Erdogan foreign minister convinced him to “get engaged in Syria and reflect later…”. Wrong and deadly judgment: Syria and Turkey have thousands of years of emmeshed history and common communities…(See note). The Western nations refrained from taking seriously Turkey’s direct and vast strategic plans on the Syrian problems…

6. So far, there are over 80,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey, and preparations are suggesting that Turkey is expecting the number to increase to 130,000 very shortly. The political immersion in Syria’s affairs has dwindled the support for the Turkish Moslem Brotherhood Party: The Turkish citizens are very apprehensive of the massive infiltration of foreign militias and radical Islamists entering Turkey, supposedly to fight in Syria, but most of them trying to find refuge in Turkey.

The Arab States are refusing to let the former jihadists return home, and prefer to dispatch them to Hot Spots, regions specifically created to keep the jihadists on the move and away from their home States…

7. Erdogan and the President Abdullah Gul are in the process of a long internal infighting: Erdogan dismissed and retired many high officers in the army who were counted on the President and taking political engagements not to the satisfaction of Gul…

8. There is this trend of transforming Turkey into another Pakistan, very unstable, fragile, and radical, and the reactions of Erdogan are encouraging this political instability…The consequences of the long difficulties and instability in Afghanistan has affected the political/social structure in Pakistan. 

The Syrian instability is affecting the Turkish political/social structure and radicalizing the ‘minorities” in Turkey, especially the Kurds and the Alawits, both them forming at least 45% of the total population.

The Alawit Moslem sect, forming 15% of Syria population and about 20% in Turkey, is a mixture of Shia and Sufi interpretation of Islam. This sect were persecuted for a thousand years by the dominant Sunni Caliphat and they took refuge in high mountain chains. The Ottoman military formation the Inkishariyat was suppressed by the Sultan in 1826 and the disbanded soldiers assembled in secret sects, associating with the Alawit secret organizations and spreading in the Balkan region…

Note 1: Post partially inspired from an article by Jihad Zein in the daily Al Nahar.

Note 2: The “Turks” are nomadic tribes from current Turkmenistan and neighboring central Asia States who united and defeated the Byzantium army around 1080 and established the Seljuk dynasty.

Who bear the moral responsibility of the destruction of Damascus and Aleppo?

So what if the people in Damascus and Aleppo didn’t often demonstrate peacefully demanding required reforms from the regime?

Is that ground enough for the insurgents to infiltrate militarily these two biggest cities in Syria and watch the destructions inflicted on the cities, and the miseries that the people have to suffer and be displaced?

So what if the people in Damascus and Aleppo didn’t often demonstrate peacefully demanding the fall of  the regime?

Is that ground enough for the insurgents to punish and inflict vengeance on people who have their own mind and interest at heart? Where is this freedom of expression and liberty of taking stands?

So what if the people in Damascus and Aleppo didn’t often demonstrate peacefully demanding the dismantling of this abusive internal security services of the regime?

Do the insurgents think that the people in Damascus and Aleppo love to be subjugated, humiliated, and cowed by force, in order to be replaced by other kinds of mindless forces with no plans and specific projects to trample on their rights, properties, and wellbeing?

Veteran Lebanese journalist and investigator Jihad Zein claims that it is the Syrian insurgents who bear the moral responsibility of the destruction of Damascus and Aleppo.

What Syria has in productive infrastructure but Damascus and Aleppo to be the catalyst for its reconstruction and good examples of cooperation among all its minorities to live together in harmony and doing business for the welfare of all the people?

For 18 months the world community has being implicitly proclaiming: military intervention will not take place, and military operations will not dislodge the regime.

And the insurgents keep being trigger happy and shouting: “It is the arm of God that is aiming at the Syrian army…”

How proud are the insurgents when they hear that Al Qaeda relocated its “fighters” from Yemen to Syria? What the purpose of allowing radical and obscurantist Islamists meddling in Syria soil and imposing their ignorance on a literate and highly educated people?

The Western States, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia share the moral responsibility, by providing weapons to the insurgents, for the destruction and desolation that most Syrian cities are experiencing: Stop having the Syrian civilians as fodder to external interests and exploitation…

Moment of reckoning: Pseudo-State in Lebanon at a cross-road

If you need credible statistics on Lebanon, the best institution with a comprehensive power and knowledge is the Finance Ministry.

Currently, the pseudo-State in Lebanon has to support 180,000 public servants, constituting 16% of the total work force. You have to add 20,000 public servants camouflage under private companies, their chairmen and managers appointed by the government such as Casino du Liban, the Middle-East airline, Intra financial institution…

The ratio of public servants was 10% five years ago.

The cost amount to $5 bn or 12% of Lebanon GNP

The government has also to service a public debt that reached 135% of the GNP, and subsidize the public electricity with $2 bn a year…

It is no surprise that Lebanon Central Bank has desisted in producing yearly balance sheet since 2002. Why?

Most of the credits are being borrowed internally from local banks that are growing richer and more omnipotent in every economical sector: The banks own most of the wealth in Lebanon, alongside the religious real estates…

The economy of Lebanon has not increased in the last 2 years.

What a pseudo-State, run by oligarchic confessional powers and financed by banks, can do to reform the inevitable structural financial and economic calamities?

So far, the pseudo-State has lavished wage increases and bonuses on particular institutions (like the officers in the army and internal security agencies, the institutions directly linked to the Prime Minister, the Chairman of the Parliament and the President of the Republic…) and denied any cost of living increases to most public institution in the last 20 years.

In the last 20 years, special “Black Boxes” were allocated to the Prime Ministers (Calamity Box) and reconstruction of downtown Beirut(starting with late Rafic Hariri), Chairman of the Parliament Nabih Berry (South Box), Walid Jumblatt (Relocation of refugees Box)…

Many wage increases are on books but have never been disbursed…

The vast majority of public servants such as the public school teachers (60,000) are demonstrating for a reform of their chain of ranks and salaries that didn’t change in the last 20 years. They refuse to correct the public exams until the government signs on what has been agreed on a year ago…

The government is solvable, but it has been bled to death by the oligarchy since 1993.

In 1983, the dollar was worth 3 Lebanese pounds and suddenly the financial system collapsed and the dollar was worth 3,000 LB.  The currency went to hell and the citizens became slaves to the warlords militia (still receiving foreign money) in order to survive. The dollar is currently worth 1,500 LB…

This selective hiring of unqualified public servants, allocated to the confessional political leaders, has driven the government to the wall. The two main consequences are:

1. The private sector is no longer able to support the growing needs of the government to satisfy decisions not related to fundamental economic and financial policies. Actually, the government has been increasing direct and indirect taxes on every service and commodities for the past 7 years.

2. The public servants potential salary increase demands are not sustainable for the medium-term. The short-term policies do not match the capabilities for satisfying frequent demands, which are fair, but not possible within this political/social structure.

The government and the political system are sending the strong message that they are impotent to resolving any single trouble ravaging Lebanon.

Every clerics with a hundred followers thinks that he has the right to block the entrance to major cities for political demands that are of no concern to the citizens. The self-appointed Sunni cleric Al Assir (extradited by England) has been blocking for a month the main highway to the third city of Saida. His installed his tents and is preaching the dismantlement of the military branch of Hezbollah… The government and the local leaders didn’t show any resolve to break off this “civil disobedience”. Why? Al Assir is being funded and supported by foreign powers (Saudi Arabia and Qatar…)

North of Lebanon is fast becoming a “liberated area” for the Syrian insurgents to come and exit at will. The army didn’t receive any order to close off the borders and control the flux of the refugees, reaching 30,000 so far.  The most dangerous climate is that many of these Syrian insurgents in Lebanon have been engaged in kidnapping for ransom and had committed crimes before “fleeing” to Lebanon. The government is claiming that it didn’t spend a dime on caring for the refugees, that Denmark and the UN are funding the relocations of these refugees…

Turkey and Jordan totally control their borders with Syria. Not a single Syrian can return to Syria without proper approved papers, and not a single piece of arm can enter Syria without the approval of the State government…

The army in Lebanon is asked to play the internal security function with archaic arms and equipments. And the internal security forces (well armed, well paid and well fed) are to be private guards to the hundreds of oligarchs…

About 3,000 temporary contract workers have been investing the main headquarter, for over a month, of the public electricity, blocking streets, open sit-in, occupying the administrative building, waging strikes, marches, harassing the public employees…cutting electricity and preventing the normal functioning of the public servants for entering any institution related to power generation and distribution. Why?

The political oligarchy has created pseudo private companies to “facilitate the job” of the Ministry of Electricity and Water. These companies are mainly financed by the government under contracts and their managers and directors appointed by the oligarchs. The temporary workers were assigned by the oligarchs. The government is short on liquidity and these pseudo companies want to unload of surplus temp. workers and want the government to hire them as public servants on fixed jobs…

Most of these temp. workers have been hired less than three years ago and most of them have no qualifications as public servants. The Chairman of the Parliament Nabih Berry, Samir Geaja (Lebanese Forces), and the Hariri clan have been supporting the movement of these temp.workers “for their well-earned rights”… against all odds and regulations…

Signs and banners by the daily contract workers state: “We are Lebanese not for sale”; “The gift of fanaticism and sectarianism to the Lebanese”…

Why the government has to absorb these workers?

For the last 20 years, the oligarchs planned to privatize the public electricity for a dime, and refused to fund any programs and projects meant to make this institution profitable…

In 2010, the government was forced to vote on a comprehensive plan for delivering electricity 24 hours a day by the year 2016, but all programs were halted for “lack of budget” and all kinds of excuses….

Lebanon is fast drifting to the moment of reckoning: Either a vast and successful civil disobedience movement intent on changing the political system or facing another looming civil war with the same basic political conditions, as the previous one in 1975, forming and gaining strength.

The army, if it is meant to stay unified, must be financed by the civil disobedience movement and not expect to be at beck of the oligarchy and confessional system, and keeping dialogue and communication opened with the movement.

The movement should start collecting taxes directly from the citizens and disbursing the fund to the most critical institutions for smooth running of the country.

Note 1: Information on the public servants in Lebanon was taken from an article by Jihad Zein, published in the daily Al Nahar.

Note 2: Lebanon “economy” is based on three sectors: Banking, Real Estates, and all kinds of trafficking that are raking most of the revenues and barely pay taxes. The political system refuses to tax these sectors and prefers to target the hard working and producing sectors that are barely standing and not getting any state support or assistance.

The banks in Lebanon have increased their initial share of $146 million in 1993 to $15 bn in the last 2 decades and making 1.5 bn in profit every year. The banks in Lebanon reap 4.5 times more profit what the banks in the Western States generate, and refuse to increase their share in taxation from 5 to 7%.

The Real Estates developers are generating $10 bn a year in revenue and pay no taxes.

People in Lebanon are surviving on expatriate generosity.

Syrians fodder to superpowers tag of war?

After the second joint veto in the UN by Russia and China blocking any military interventions in Syria, it has dawned on the US and the European States that Syrian is a major Red Line not to cross in this tag of war among the superpowers, which have veto powers in the UN.

The media would want you to construe that it is Iran that is being defended, and that Syria is just a first defensive line to the onslaught of the western powers in order to securing firm and definitive geopolitical and economical supremacy in the long-term… 

Wrong. Syria is the main red line not to cross! What constitute the major threats to Russia and China is the demographic influence of the Moslem Sunnis in both countries in the medium-term.  The Moslem population in Russia is fast reaching 50%, mainly in all the previous States bordering Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China, constituting a belt of fire in its virulent activities and demanding their rightful entitlements…China has experienced in the last three years major uprising in its south-western provinces…

Iran is not a threat, but rather a source of huge potentials and opportunities for both Russia and China: Iran is a sphere of economic and trade influence for both Russia and China, and Iran can defend itself in any major military confrontations…Iran is mostly of Shiaa sect and its only religious influence is located in Azerbijan…

Syria is the main red line from the hegemony of Turkey in the region.  Russia and China are not about to let Turkey send hot waves of religious Islamic turbulence in their backyard provinces, and the best strategy is to deny Turkey any substantial political influence in Syria that would confirm the impression in the Arab World that Turkey is a strategic State to rely on for substitute political systems, manifested in Turkish-type Moslem Brotherhood structure and ideologies.

Syria is a weak State compared to Turkey and is ideal as the modern “silk trade route” to the European large market and economic potentials and opportunities: Russia and China are not about to be burdened by Turkey are the inevitable middleman for trades toward Europe…Syria will remain the preferred trade junction to Russia and China, bypassing Turkey in times of critical crisis…Syria should not be a stable and steady sphere of influence to Turkey, no matter what…Syria is to remain autonomous and “independent” from Turkey bullying pressures…

The French ambassador in Syria reported that the Syrian Moslem Brotherhood could secure only 15% of the votes: The Syrian people are mainly constituted of secular movements, and if a smooth transition of power is established soon, Syria will turn the tide in most of the Arab States that witnessed civil successful revolutions, away from the Moslem Brotherhood political ideologies…

Mind you that Russia has a well-rooted economic influence in Turkey: Turkey depends on Russia gas and Iran oil in order to export half its products to Europe.  Russia and China can contain the economic expansion of Turkey, but they are unable to restrain Turkey’s influence on the virulent Moslem Sunnis in their backyard provinces…

The western nations have finally resigned to the steadfast alliance between Russia and China on Syria’s end-game political structure: The transitional phase will be to the complete satisfaction of Russia and China. And Turkey should not contemplate any hegemony over Syria or perturb its sociopolitical structure.  Turkey is to let the new “Silk Road” passing through Syria free from interference…

The internal Syrian opposition movement should quickly grab this opportunity to vigorously engage the inevitably “fallen regime” to serious negotiation for a transitional government… The external Syrian opposition factions are just a temporary front to harassing Russia and China until the Presidential elections in France and the US. 

For the time being, the external opposition can sit tight and comfortable and enjoy the financial backing and the illusory front stage…For the time being, the external opposition can adamantly oppose any negotiation with the “regime”, but it is up to the internal opposition to settle the matter and end the bloodshed and daily horrors, and the prospect of a civil war until the presidential elections in the US and France and Russia…

So far, for the last 8 months, the Syrians have been fodder to superpower tag of war, and it is about time that they sit and find a sustainable resolution that withstand the bleak prospect of Moslem Brotherhood winning all “democratic” elections in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Morocco…

The question is: “For how long the Syrians are to be used as fodder in this ugly uneven battle?”

It appears that Turkey has fallen into the trap of the US siren, pressing it to profit from their latest advantages.  Turkey has to face the dragons of Russia and China if it insists of extending its influence in Syria.  Turkey is currently shewing on a bite too big to swallow: Turkey has to come to term with the realization that it is not “that Big” as it wishes and dream to become…

Note 1: The argument of Russia that UN resolutions for interfering in other State affairs, such as Libya, is mainly a convinient public excuse for its veto… Russia and China never considered Libya a strategic goal to waging a war for…Probably, France, England and the US paid a steep price for Russia not to oppose their involvement in Libya, and now they are supposed to return the favor…The dices are rolled: Russia and China are implicitly responsible for resolving the Syria dilemma, while the western media will keep reminding the world community of daily deaths and injuries and…

Note 2: This article is partially inspired from an article by Jihad Zein in the daily Al Nahar


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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