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Posts Tagged ‘(mass disobedience)

A world endeavor to impose national integration (Tawteen) of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and Jordan?

Lebanon is witnessing concentrated pressures from the USA and western colonial powers to integrate the Palestinian refugees since 1948 in its social fabric. The same pressures are being exercised on the fabricated monarchy in Jordan that has the highest concentration of Palestinian refugees and share 800 km border with the colonial Israeli implant in the Near East.

Economic and financial difficulties are imposed on Lebanon and Jordan, as well as accumulated sovereign debts that a third of the budgets are spent on satisfying the interest.

Sure, in Lebanon, this defunct political system run and ruled for 3 decades by civil war militia “leaders” is Not helping in any kinds of reforms or changes to confront the external pressures to impose their plans.

For example, after the newly elected Parliament under a twisted election law, Lebanon is unable to form a legitimate government. In the past 4 months, Lebanon is run by a government, supposed to be taking care of running business, but in fact hurrying up to loot the budget as fast as it can.

The Cedar 4 agreement to lend Lebanon about $10 bn for its infrastructure is being delayed until a government is in place. Most of these loans are actually meant to sustain the Syrian refugees in Lebanon and preventing them to return to their home State.

Lebanon is witnessing some kind of Palestinian camps security upheavals. And Jordan faced last month a serious mass disobedience connect to the IMF constraints of increasing taxes on bread and fuel.

Trump has already denied 5 million Palestinian refugees the UNRWA yearly allocation since 1948. Trump wants to recognize only 40,000 still alive Palestinians of the al “Nakba”

معلومات فلسطينية عن “سيناريو دولي” لفرض التوطين في لبنان

فيما يواجه لبنان تحديات سياسية كبرى، في تشكيل الحكومة العتيدة بعد مراوحة طويلة، ووضع خطة للنهوض بالاقتصاد، يتقدم الملفّ ال​فلسطين​ي في لبنان بعد انعقاد الجمعيّة العموميّة للأمم المتحدة في ​نيويورك​، حيث ألقى الرئيس الفلسطيني ​محمود عباس​ خطابا انقسم الشارع الفلسطيني إزاءه بين مؤيد ومعارض، فدخلت المخيّمات مجددا في مرحلة “انتظار قاتل” بين المخاوف من عودة الخلافات مجددا،

رغم التوافق على أهمية حمايتها من أي توتير أمني، يفتح الابواب الموصدة على الفتنة والاقتتال، وبين غياب الخطة الاستراتيجية الموحّدة لمواجهة التحديات المحدقة بقضية العودة ووكالة “الاونروا”.

وتؤكد أوساط فلسطينية بارزة لـ”النشرة”، ان أي توتير أمني يطال المخيمات يعتبر بشكل غير مباشر وجها سيئا جديدا لـ”صفقة القرن” الاميركية التي ترفضها كل القوى السياسية الوطنية والاسلامية وتعمل على التصدي لها، إذ يهدف الى إلهاء القوى في تطويق ذيوله دون التفرغ الى القضيّة الاساس الكبرى في حماية ​حق العودة​ الذي بات مستهدفا مباشرا بعد القرار الاميركي بشأن ​القدس​ ونقل السفارة اليها.

حتى الآن، اتخذت ​الولايات المتحدة الاميركية​ تسع قرارات متتالية منذ بداية العام 2018، ويتوقع أن تتخذ المزيد منها، بل وأخطرها إسقاط حق اللجوء بالوراثة، وهو ما اشار اليه الرئيس “أبو مازن” في خطابه في الامم المتحدة، بأن ​الادارة الاميركية​ تعتزم الاعتراف بنحو 40 الف لاجئ فقط، هم الذين ما زالوا على قيد الحياة من جيل النكبة وليس 5 ملايين كما هو متعارف عليه في قيود وكالة “الاونروا” والاحصاءات الفلسطينية الرسمية.

وترى المصادر الفلسطينية، ان كل الخطوات الاميركية لم تأتِ من فراغ، فهي مترابطة في سلسلة حلقاتها، منذ الاولى منها وهي الاعتراف بالقدس عاصمة لـ”اسرائيل”، وصولا الى إسقاط “صفة اللجوء” عن غالبية اللاجئين في الشتات، وما بينهما من قرارات اتخذت بهدف ممارسة الضغط على القيادة الفلسطينية والقوى السياسية لشطب الثابتين الرئيسيين: القدس عاصمة دولة فلسطين، وحق العودة من خلال انهاء عمل الاونروا” وفتح باب “التذويب الطوعي” عبر “اللجوء الانساني” أو فرض ​التوطين​.

*خطة موحدة*
ويعتبر لاجئو المخيمات في لبنان الاكثر تأثّرا بهذه القرارات الاميركية في ظل الواقع الهشّ على كافة المستويات السياسية والامنية والخدماتية، في الاولى يطلّ شبح الخلاف مجددا بعد الخطاب الرئاسي، وفي الثانية يترنح بعضها تحت وطأة “الامن الهش” وتحديدا ​عين الحلوة​ والقابل للاهتزاز عند أي حدث طارىء او اشكال،

وفي الثالثة في ظل حرمانهم من حقوقهم المدنية والانسانيّة والاجتماعيّة مع ارتفاع معدل البطالة وانتشار حالات اليأس والاحباط بشكل غير مسبوق.

وتشير المصادر، انه لكل هذه الاسباب، يجب وضع خطة مواجهة مزدوجة، فلسطينية تأخذ على عاتقها تناسي الخلافات السياسية والتأكيد على استثنائية الساحة في لبنان، وتفعيل الأطر المشتركة وتحصين أمن واستقرار المخيّمات بما يسدّ كل منافذ الفتنة والاستدراج الى اقتتال، وصولا الى اطلاق “مبادرة” جديدة تجمع بين هذه العناوين، وفلسطينية–لبنانية تقوم على ثنائية منح الحقوق الانسانية وتعزيز صمود ابناء المخيمات لابعاد شبح التوطين الذي يلوح في أفق لبنان من خلال الضغط على مسؤوليه.

*سيناريو دولي*
وفق ما يتداول في الأروقة الفلسطينية، فإن توحيد الموقف الفلسطيني–اللبناني، سيساهم ببدء تحركات سلميّة نحو الدول الفاعلة والمؤثرة في القرار العالمي لابعاد شبح التوطين وتمكين ​وكالة الاونروا​ من القيام بمهامها على أكمل وجه، حيث تملك بعض ​القوى الفلسطينية​ معلومات هامة أشبه بـ”سيناريو دولي”، بل “خارطة طريق” لشطب حق العودة والتوطين بعد التذويب،

ومنها انهاء عمل الوكالة المذكورة عبر وقف دعمها ماديا، ومنها عزم بعض الدول على فتح باب اللجوء الانساني ويتردد اسماء ثلاثة دول بارزة، ومنها اعادة الاف من الفلسطينيين الى اراضي ​السلطة الفلسطينية​ تحت عنوان “لمّ الشمل” ومعظم هؤلاء يملكون جوازات سفر صادرة عن السلطة او لهم اقارب او انتماء سياسي،

واخيرا فرض التوطين لمن يبقى في لبنان تحت شعار “انساني”، مقابل مبالغ ماليّة كبيرة تدفع للبنان وتسد العجز وتساهم في النهوض الاقتصادي من جديد… وهو ما يرفضه لبنان والقوى الفلسطينية معا.

*حراك للمواجهة*
وتؤكد المصادر، أن المطلوب اليوم اطلاق “مبادرة وطنية” جديدة تتماشى مع التطورات السياسية والامنية المتسارعة في المنطقة (كما جرى في العام 2014، حين أطلقت “المبادرة الوطنية الفلسطينية” لحماية ​المخيمات الفلسطينية​ والحفاظ على العلاقات الاخوية مع الجوار اللبناني وقد نجحت في تجاوز الكثير من القطوعات الامنية الخطيرة إبّان ​الاحداث السورية​)، تتضمن انشاء “خليّة ازمة” أو “طوارىء سياسيّة”، تدير الملفّ برمّته بموقف موحد، وبحراك سياسي شعبي يقوم على تناسي الخلافات وتعميم خطاب الوحدة من القيادة الى القاعدة،

تحصين أمن المخيمات واستقرارها، الدفاع عن بقاء “الاونروا” كشاهد حيّ على النكبة واللجوء، تنظيم تحركات احتجاجيّة سلميّة ترفع شعار “نختلف مع الاونروا ولا نختلف عليها”، خاصة بعد نجاح ادارتها في توفير المزيد من الدعم المالي بلغ 118 مليون دولار وآخرها من دولة الكويت 40 مليون دولار اميركي، لينخفض العجز المالي من 186 مليون دولار الى 68 مليون دولار اميركي فقط وهو مبلغ زهيد قياسا على موازنات الدول.

خلاصة القول، ان القرارات الاميركية ليست قدرا محتوما يجب الاستسلام لها، بل يمكن المواجهة والتصدّي لها، اذا جرى توحيد الموقف الفلسطيني واعداد خطة مشتركة فلسطينية لبنانية تأخذ على عاتقها الدفاع عن الحقوق المشروعة، وان اضاعة الوقت لم يعد لصالح أحد، وقبل فوات الاوان في افراغ المخيّمات من سكانها وتحديدا شبابها، واسقاط عنوانها الوطني كرمز للقضية الفلسطينية وحق العودة

“Allah has nothing to do” with “Arabs” crisis, and neither is the Koran

First, Allah has nothing to do with the current crisis and uprising in the Arab Spring mass disobedience movements.

Second, the Koran has nothing to do with the extremist and salafist Islamic factions  and movements. (To be developed in the follow up article)

There are basic factors that drive progress in societies and the recurring violent crisis resulting from changes in the anthropological shift.

1. The rate of literacy (learning to read and write) and what is called alphabetization of society is the prime factor in the drive for change. Once the rate has reached 50% among the population, a mass revolution is not far from emerging against the status quo

Once that many people can read tracts, pamphlet and daily papers in their own language, it becomes inevitable to start demanding reforms.

That’s what happened in 17th century England, 18th France and 20th century Russia.

That’s what happened in Iran, a decade before the Islamic revolution.

That’s what happened in Tunisia and Egypt.

Mind you that the Near Eastern societies or Levant (of Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine) had exceeded the 50% literacy rate in the 30’s, particularly in the cities,and witnessed frequent mass disobedience movements against the mandated powers of France and England and against the feudal classes.

Mind you also that the First Palestinian Intifada of 1935 was started because England refused any election, not even on the municipal level, on the pretext that the Jews constituted less than 20% of the population.

This mass disobedience lasted 3 years and England was forced to dispatch 100,000 troops to quell this virulent and steadfast revolution. As WWII was about to start, and in order not to bog down in Palestine such a large number of troops, England began to train Zionist Jews in Palestine on acts of terrorism and sabotage of bridges and communication lines.

It is in 1938 that Ben Gurion started his extensive and detailed plan of mass terror activities against the Palestinians once Israel declares its Independence. The plan was carried out in its minute details, especially evacuating the Palestinians from cities and villages bordering the shore line to deny the Palestinians any support from the sea.

2. The second factor is the rate of fecundity. If the rate is way above 3 per family, it is an indication that the majority of females in a society is still illiterate. The women play the role of “manufacturing” kids in high numbers so that 50% of them might survive the age of 5.  That was the trend in almost every society around the world in the 19th century.

Once the fecundity rate drops to 2, women and mothers are seeking higher quality of life to their offspring and investing in their education and well-being.

The qualitative shift to higher concern for offspring is correlated with the lower quantitative level of fecundity.

Mind you that a drop under 2 means that the society is losing hope in a better future for their offspring and the demographics starts its aging process.

For example, the median age in Tunisia is 29, in Egypt 24, in France 40 and in Germany 44.  You should not expect an older median population to take to the street and demonstrate with the same endurance and zeal as with the younger population.

I conjecture that the atrocious WWI was the result of high illiteracy rate among women in the rural areas and the peasants constituted a large reserve of illiterate soldiers who were easily enrolled in the army under fraudulent “facts” and evidences.

3. The third factor is an anthropological substrate: What were the family values, particularly the inheritance system between the genders, the trend to considering sons and daughter at a par in mental capability, responsibility and competence.

4. An important characteristics in the anthropological structure is the rate of endogamous marriages: marriages among close relatives and cousins. This characteristic bolster the patrilinear structure where the status of a family is linked to the status of the father.

In these kinds of community, the tribal and clannish bonding override the other community benefits and concerns.

In Tunisia and Egypt, endogamous marriages rate were around 35%, which restrained the acceleration of the upheavals. This high rate is prevalent in almost every Arabic Islamic State.

In Egypt, there is a steady decline of endogamous marriages and reaching about 25%.

In the 20th century, the modern western and industrialized societies enacted laws to encourage exogamy and forced the churches to adopt these civil laws that prohibit marriages to the second and third degrees in family close relationship.

5. The fifth factor is inevitably the lack of work opportunities for the youth who got university degrees and are left to loaf around. The high unemployment rate in the Arabic States is an endemic problem.

Progress is measured by the kinds of jobs that motivate people to work. And the right to work is primordial in the youth mind in order to plan out their future and viability of remaining in their homeland.

Question: Are Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Emirate States and the other two monarchies of Morocco and Jordan about to witness any mass upheavals?

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates rely on oil revenues: The citizens don’t pay taxes and “No taxes, no representation” 

The Gulf Emirates, as is the case of Libya, are scarcely populated and the oil revenues can take care of allowing stipends to be distributed to the “citizen/chattel”.

What happened in Libya was the result of the people in the eastern part (Benghazi) being punished by Gadhafi and totally ignored for 2 decades. Nothing has changed in Libya: the citizens are demanding oil stipend money to be distributed “equitably”

Saudi Arabia  is in deep trouble, a reserve of fanatic extremist neglected population who were unleashed for over 3 decades in foreign Islamic lands, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria…

Oil stipend is lavishly spent on the 5,000 members of the Royal extended family and the rate of unemployment and barely surviving people are extremely high.

Morocco will end up a Constitutional monarchy, unless civil war breaks out since the Al Qaeda-type followers are spreading like wild fire in northern Africa

Jordan has always been backed by foreign powers and can easily be put on fire if this monarchy fails to compromise on a Constitutional monarchy.

Note 1: The first part was inspired by the interview of Daniel Schneidermann with Emmanuel Todd on Arret sur images and published in a book: “Allah has nothing to do“, and “Le rendez-vous des civilizations” (The meeting of civilizations) by Todd and Youssef Courbage

Note 2: Historian Emmanuel Le Roy-Ladurie analyses the trend using long-term statistical dada

How Do Ceasefires End? Who Re-igniting Violence?

If you followed the current timeline of how the new round of bombs, shells, and missiles showering on Gaza started and evolved (see link in note 1), you’ll appreciate the study done by Nancy Kanwisher in 2009, the exact systemic pattern of apartheid Israel.

Following the previous cease fire in Gaza in 2009, many wondered “How did the recent ceasefire unravel?

The mainstream media in the US and Israel places the blame squarely on Hamas, (as is their habit).

The media insisted that “massive barrage of Palestinian rockets were fired into Israel in November and December of 2009″

(hand made rockets that fizzled before landing at the time), and ending this rocket fire is the stated goal of the current Israeli invasion of Gaza.

Nancy Kanwisher, Johannes Haushofer, & Anat Biletzki published in the HuffPost on Jan. 6, 2009 “Reigniting Violence: How Do Ceasefires End?

“As Israel and Palestine suffer a hideous new spasm of terror, misery, and mayhem, it is important to ask how this situation came about. Perhaps an understanding of recent events will afford lessons for the future.

The US media account leaves out crucial facts about the cease fire:

First, and most importantly, the ceasefire was remarkably effective: after it began in June 2008, the rate of rocket and mortar fire from Gaza dropped to almost zero, and stayed there for four straight months (see Figure 1, from a fact sheet produced by the Israeli consulate in NYC).

So much for the widespread view, exemplified in yesterday’s New York Times editorial that: “There is little chance of restraining Hamas without dealing with its patrons in Syria and Iran.”  Instead, the data shows clearly that Hamas can indeed control the violence if it so chooses, and sometimes it does, for long periods of time.

Second, and just as important, what happened to end this striking period of peace?

On November 4th, Israel killed a Palestinian, an event that was followed by a volley of mortars fired from Gaza. Immediately after that, an Israeli air strike killed 6 more Palestinians. Then a massive barrage of rockets was unleashed, leading to the end of the ceasefire.

Figure 1. Number of Palestinian rockets fired in each month of 2008 (adapted from The Israeli consulate in NYC [pdf])

2009-01-06-chart1.jpg

Thus the latest ceasefire ended when Israel first killed Palestinians, and Palestinians retaliated by firing rockets into Israel.

However, before attempting to glean lessons from this event, we need to know if this case is atypical, or if it reflects a systematic pattern.

We decided to tally the data to find out.

We analyzed the entire timeline of killings of Palestinians by Israelis, and killings of Israelis by Palestinians, in the Second Intifada (mass disobedience), based on the data from the widely-respected Israeli Human Rights group B’Tselem (including all the data from September 2000 to October 2008).

We defined “conflict pauses” as periods of one or more days when no one is killed on either side, and we asked which side kills first after conflict pauses of different duration.

As shown in Figure 2, this analysis shows that it is overwhelmingly Israel that kills first after a pause in the conflict: 79% of all conflict pauses were interrupted when Israel killed a Palestinian, while only 8% were interrupted by Palestinian attacks (the remaining 13% were interrupted by both sides on the same day).

In addition, we found that this pattern — in which Israel is more likely than Palestine to kill first after a conflict pause  — becomes more pronounced for longer conflict pauses.

Indeed, of the 25 periods of nonviolence lasting longer than a week, Israel unilaterally interrupted 24 of the periods (96% of the times), and it unilaterally interrupted 100% of the 14 periods of nonviolence lasting longer than 9 days.

2009-01-06-chart2a.jpg

Figure 2. For conflict pauses of different durations  (i.e., periods of time when no one is killed on either side), we show here the percentage of times from the Second Intifada in which Israelis ended the period of nonviolence by killing one or more Palestinians (black), the percentage of times that Palestinians ended the period of nonviolence by killing Israelis (grey), and the percentage of times that both sides killed on the same day (white).

Virtually all periods of nonviolence lasting more than a week were ended when the Israelis killed Palestinians first. We include here the data from all pause duration that actually occurred.

Thus, a systematic pattern does exist: it is overwhelmingly Israel, not Palestine, that kills first following a lull. Indeed, it is virtually always Israel that kills first after a lull lasting more than a week.

The lessons from these data are clear:

First, Hamas can indeed control the rockets, when it is in their interest.  The data shows  that ceasefires can work, reducing the violence to nearly zero for months at a time.

Second, if Israel wants to reduce rocket fire from Gaza, it should cherish and preserve the peace when it starts to break out, not be the first to kill.

Note 1: For timeline of this year preemptive war on Gaza….https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2012/11/18/a-timeline-on-gaza-tragedy-from-imeu-and-the-electronic-intifada/

Note 2: For a detailed account of the  breakdown of the ceasefire and the precise numbers of rockets fired in November from the point of view of the Israeli military, see http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/hamas_e011.htm


adonis49

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