Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Merkava tanks

Why Israel begged for an immediate cease fire in its preemptive July War of 2006?

If you want to know the context of the July War that lasted 33 days, you may read the Note first.

Hassan Nasr Allah, Hezbollah Secretary General, gave an extensive interview to Ghassan Ben Jeddo on the channel Al Mayadeen, a day before the car bombing of Bir Al Abed that harvested 26 killed and over 270 injured.
In that interview, corresponding to the anniversary of the cease fire of Israel preemptive war on Lebanon in 2006, Nasr Allah explained:
“In the first 29 days of the war, Bush Jr. and his administration vouched that this war will not end until Hezbollah is wiped out or decide to turn over all its weapons…”
On day 30, Israel sent messages that it is ready to consider a cease fire, but preferred to play coy and insisted on the preconditions:
1. The UN peace keeping forces should be increased to 15,000 instead of the present 2,000 soldiers
2. No Lebanese southern refugees (about 400,000) will be denied the right to return until the 15,000 UN force has arrived. It was estimated that this UN force to assemble will take 5 months to be ready to be deployed.
3. Hezbollah military forces will vacate behind the Litany River and be substituted with the Lebanese regular army…
Hezbollah refused, and its missiles kept showering the Israeli settlements and reaching far inside Israel. About over 600,000 Israelis fled their settlements.
On day 31, Israel ambassador to the UN woke up Qatar ambassador Hamad at 3 am and begged him to do his best to arrange for an immediate cease fire.
US ambassador George Bolton insisted on Hamad to do his best effort for this most urgent demand, claiming that their friend Israel have begged Bush Jr. to desist and accept a cease fire.
(Mind you that Bolton is the one who ironically asked the Arab ambassadors to the UN to take their yearly vacation since this war is going to last…)
At the first meeting of Hamad with Nasr Allah, the main question on his mind was:
What happened for Israel to drop all its preconditions and beg for a cease fire?”
Nasr Allah gave his own interpretation:
Israel has used up all its tactical and strategic means to conduct successful operations within Lebanon.
1. Israel air force bombed everything and even all Lebanon infrastructure, electrical power centers, bridges and production facilities… and yet, Hezbollah missiles increased in numbers, in reach and in accuracy within Israel…
2. Israel navy suffered direct hits and casualty and was taken out of further coordinating operations
3. The many land operations were disastrous and the most modern Merkava tanks were not match to the Cornet missiles
4. Israel failed to hold on any small village during the previous days, even those on the borders. Israeli troops would show up in the morning and retreat in the evening…
5. The last major incursion to reach the Litany River, 6 km away from Israel, the supposed dividing line for a cease fire, was a total fiasco: Over 150 tanks were destroyed and hundred officers and soldiers were left on the field of operation…
Israel thought out one last shot, a night operation: Israel realized that Hezbollah never tried to shoot down any helicopter at night and assumed that Hezbollah lacks night facilities and gears.
And consequently, on the 30th night, Israel dispatch a helicopter carrying 5 officers to prepare the ground for the night operation and landing.
A Cornet missile shot down the helicopter and the 5 officers died. (Cornet missiles are meant to target tanks)
And Israel lost every hope for any meaningful operation in this war. Israel was to be on the receiving end of Hezbollah missiles for any additional day that this war last. Hezbollah was launching over 300 missiles every day and reaching far away strategic installations within Israel.
Nasr Allah confirmed that Hezbollah had missiles that could reach Tel Aviv if Israel refused to take his warning seriously by bombing Beirut.  And Israel refrained from bombing the Capital Beirut because it believed the words of Nasr Allah.
On the last minutes before the cease fire took effect, Hezbollah had the last word and showered Israel with hundreds of missiles.
And why the Lebanese government delayed its response to the Resolution 1701 with devastating consequences?
Note: War in context.
On July 12, Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers on the borders. Hezbollah has been Warning Israel and the Lebanese authorities that it will kidnap soldiers to swap with Lebanese prisoners in Israel.
Israel had already conducted prisoner swaps before with Hezbollah under German hospices, and it was to be business as usual this time around. Two difficulties emerged:
1. A tank arrived on the scene and was destroyed by a land mine, killing all its crew
2. Bush Jr. and Saudi Arabia were totally upset with Hezbollah successes, and pressured Israel to launch a total preemptive war.
A preemptive war was already programmed and planned for late September, and Israel was not ready for an earlier war.  Israel Chief of Staff Halutz promised his government a swift air strike that would put Hezbollah on its knees within two days.
Three days and nights of intensive airstrikes didn’t prevent Hezbollah from delivering hundreds of missiles within Israel.
Israel Foreign Minister Livni asked the government to stop the war since the Jews in the settlements were fleeing en mass and Israel had no experience with these internal problems due to Israelis taking refuge elsewhere. And the settlement had no underground refuge or bunkers for these kinds of wars.
Bush Jr. and his administration would not listen to Israeli dilemma and insisted on the resumption of total war until Hezbollah is wiped out…

August 15, 2006

Israel withdrew from all the eastern part of south Lebanon and withdrew today from the town of Ghandourieh of where they lost 20 Merkava tanks three days ago.  Only 3% of the Israelis believe that they won a clear-cut victory and 85% of the Americans handed the victory to Hezbollah. Ramsfield (US defense minister)is scared shit of when the Shiaa in Iraq get organized and armed.  Tony Blair of England is withdrawing from Basra by the end of the month; I may conjecture that Tony is trying to leave Iraq before the crazy Bush antagonizes Iran militarily.  This time around Britain will have nothing to do with that lunatic of GW Bush.

Hassan Nasr Allah offered us a fresh and cool analysis of the war aftermath.  His speech was mainly targeted to those Lebanese politicians who jumped on the occasion to demanding from Hezbollah to disarm before Israel withdraw from Lebanon, before the Lebanese prisoners are returned, and before the Lebanese army is ready to take positions along the Litany River and before the UN compose the Blue-Helmeted  multinational forces.   Nasr Allah blamed these politicians who are close to the US and against Syria, and who indeed have no substantial popular support, to go far beyond the demands of the UN resolution 1701 or even the attempts of Israel to fulfill their objectives in this war.

Nasr Allah promised that reconstruction and compensations to the refugees will commence immediately and that Hezbollah is not about to wait for the government to start what it is supposed to do.  Saudi Arabia is scrambling to form an association for reconstructing Lebanon to challenge the financial help coming from Iran.

Around noon, President Bashar Assad of Syria went on air and rambled for almost an hour.  He congratulated Hezbollah on its victory, lambasted the “half -man” of the Arab leaders who provided political cover to Israel to extend its objectives and who never believed in any kind of resistance to the plans of the US and Israel in the Middle East.  Assad asserted that the Arab regimes have in fact submitted all their cards to the US in order to engineer a peace process, a decision that not only failed the process but encouraged more blood shed among the Palestinians and worked very hard to restrain any Palestinian independence and self autonomy from Israel. Assad never mentioned the prerequisite of liberating the Golan Highs or how he will subdue the political fractions in Lebanon staunchly opposing the Baath regime.

Assad’s pronouncements generated severe and numerous backlash from the media and the local and foreign politicians. The German foreign minister canceled his trip to Damascus. The reactions to Assad’s speech range from outright opposition of everything he said to cynical and hidden hatred for this regime that is being further isolated and has no support but from Iran.  The main objective of Assad is plainly to calm down the internal unrest of his people who realized that Syria was unable to help the resistance forces in Lebanon or was not willing to get involved, as was the positions of most Arab States.

Hezbollah did not respond to Assad’s speech, and most probably will not, but I suspect Hezbollah is not that thrilled and would gladly be content that Assad did not get himself involved at this junction.  Assad’s speech smacks of plainly usurping the victory of the Lebanese resistance forces and implicitly claiming the victory to Syria who was viewed by the Western Nations as the main ally to Iran in the region.  What we need is to keep internally united and iron out our differences by ourselves. The contributions of Syria in this conflict was to supplying electricity to the northern part of Lebanon, some gas, and most importantly permitting thousands of Lebanese refugees to enter Syria, fly from Syria and allowing humanitarian aids to be transferred by land from Damascus. These contributions are important and should convince our antagonistic politicians to learn not to wage vicious political wars with our immediate and strongest neighbor.

I went to the gym around 3:15 and had a good afternoon; I enjoyed some sun tan, swam in the outdoor cold pool, used the gym machines, and had a sauna and a hot shower.  I met gorgeous girls at the gym doing static bicycles and jogging machine but did not attempt to link any conversation with them.  I realized that they were following my footsteps when I was done with the exercise machines.  I returned about 8 for the evening news.  Mother was at my aunt Marie to congratulate her on the Virgin Marie day.

Victor and Raymonde visited and dined at Naoum’s, his brother, and took Adrea and Chelsea with them.  Joanna has a day off and is not cheerful; she is spending her time at home doing or creating matrices of numbers and playing with her newly adoptive kitten which she finally called Snowy.  William is constantly on the phone, or that’s how it appears every time I see him.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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