Adonis Diaries

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Military coup in Turkey: Objectives and potential consequences

The military coup in Turkey was a textbook operational success and no military units came out to confront it for 8 hours. The Turkish air force could Not have engage unless the US air-force in Injerlik base gave its green light.

NATO idea was to strike at least two birds in one shot and decided to call off the operations:

1. NATO wanted to remind Erdogan that he should not sign deals with Russia and Iran without prior agreements and negotiation with the USA and Europe

2. Preserve a shaky “Democratic” image of Turkey and force Erdogan Not to slide faster into a Theocratic system of Moslem Brotherhood control of all the institutions

My conjecture is that this tactics (of shooting more than one essential birds) will fail in the medium-term:

1.Erdogan will Not cancel his agreements with Russia or Iran: The NATO will pressure Erdogan to reduce these agreement into a skin-deep understanding

2. The democratic processes will enhance the power of the Moslem Brotherhood in election and erase whatever objective NATO wanted of  a secular Turkey

The benefits of this military coup:

As after each coup, whether successful or Not, Turkey will need a couple of months to regain a semblance of internal control.

This period will witness the withdrawal of Turkish troops outside its borders (read Baashoka in northern Iraq or within northern Syria) and demanding foreign troops inside Turkey (airfields) to reduce their activities.

The consequences for this necessary isolation will give a breathing period for the neighbouring States such as Syria, Iraq, the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabach enclave of Azerbaijan. The benefits are:

1. Reduction of military activities against the Turkish, Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish movement

2. Syria will finally get the green light to recapture all of Aleppo and its surrounding towns, since No Turkish supplies in arms and jihadists will flow inside Syria in the foreseeable future

3. Iraq will complete surrounding greater Mosul by taking the Turkish positions in Ba3shouka.

4. Syria and Iraq will launch a joint operation to take the border city of Abu Kamal, thus denying daesh any logistical routes to Mosul and Rakka.

5. Syria will have to retake Deir el Zour in these joint military operations

6. A serious negotiation for a political settlement in Syria

Note 1: Erdogan called the Turkish army “The Army of prophet Muhammad” in order to oppose any secular positioning of the army.

This “failed” coup was the ideal pretext for Erdogan to fire 2750 judges from their posts who bothered him in his attempts to quell freedom of expression and human rights excesses…. The list was already prepared before the coup, on the ground that they constitute the “deep structure in the institutions” of the Fathallah Gulan movement, and the Sufi culture in Turkey.

Note 2: I watched a documentary on ARTE that shows the southern regions of Turkey, by the Syrian borders, to support Daesh and Al nousra. They are the Turks who vote for Erdogan. Thousands of these Turks left their families and joined the extremist movements in Syria and Iraq.

Note 3: Erdogan claimed that the followers of  Fathallah Gulan (residing in Pennsylvania) are behind this coup d’etat: what is this original Turkish Moslem Brotherhood movement?

https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2010/05/14/a-turkish-cultural-movement-fathallah-gulan/


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

September 2021
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