Adonis Diaries

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Why the USA is playing it “fuzzy” in Egypt after the upheaval of 2011?

Playing it fuzzy does not mean “not knowing what to do” or lacking a long-term strategy in Egypt and the Arab World.

The US is playing it fuzzy in public speeches and official pronouncement because, in Egypt case, success relies on letting the Egyptian fighting it out in total darkness of what this superpower really want to achieve there.

It is highly probable that the US was caught off guard in 2011, but not this time around for the July 2013 upheaval. The Coup was planned and patiently prosecuted in its minute details.

Obama could afford to go golfing and Kerry go sailing during Egypt turmoil, simply because the plan was carried out smoothly and according to schedule.

The Wahhabi Saudi Arabia monarchy was out of its mind, witnessing its arch enemy Egypt Moslem Brotherhood coming to power.

Saudi Arabia had excellent relations with Mubarak types of government: Everything in Egypt was for sale, and for cheap as long as the Egyptian oligarchy is bribed, and Saudi Arabia could build hundreds of mosques and appoint the sheikhs and imams who were trained to the Wahhabi brand of Islamic sect

The US calmed down the Saudi monarchy by promising to reverse the game in due time, giving Egypt Moslem Brotherhood a year term to demonstrate its failure to govern.

Robert Fisk is adamant that Morsi didn’t win the election, but his opponent perceived to be a continuation to Mubarak’s political system The US could not afford to be viewed as blatantly going counter to the Egyptians feeling for change, and convinced Saudi Arabia to accept a temporary course of action. The opponent was dispatched to Saudi Arabia right after the vote, and never contested the results.

The US needed time to get things under control over this flammable situation in the Middle East.

The US made it sure that the Morsi government will not secure any financial aid, not even from the IMF, in order to partially resolve the acute financial problems that Egypt was railing under. Only Qatar offered barely a single billion, and the Emir paid the heavy price: The Emir of Qatar and his Prime Minister were ousted and replaced by the elder son of Hamad bin Thani a month ago.

Did you notice how quickly the new government of Egypt secured $12 billion, the day after the “successful” coup?

Saudi Arabia extended $5 bn, Kuwait $4 bn, and the Arab Gulf States$ 3 bn, in guaranteed loans and direct oil shipment… 

Mind you that these oil  rich Arab States never open their purse for foreign aids without the US permission.

Morsi and the Moslem Brotherhood were under the illusion that if they satisfied Israel conditions, they will have a green card to reshuffle internally the “Liberal political system” in Egypt and impose their brand of government

There is no doubt that the Morsi government and Turkey and Qatar and many other States… knew that the US is planning an overthrow of the Moslem Brotherhood “legitimate” government, and Morsi quickened the pace in installing their own political changes and institutions, and frustrating most of the Egyptians…

This frantic impatience of Morsi and seemingly haphazard decisions that alienated the other political parties didn’t come from a void: They felt that the coup is coming…

The US would not dare prepare a military coup without the public rallying of the Egyptian people against Morsi.

Is the US worried that Egypt will slip into a protracted civil war like in Syria? I doubt it.

The US want some kind of “peaceful” civil war in Egypt, weaken the Egyptian army in internal problems, and tighten the grip on Egypt political and economic decision through more loans and increased dependence on the US…

One thing is clear: The US wants to focus on the Far East and like to have the Old World (Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean) under a traditional political statue quo, as during the Cold War with the Soviet Union

The US wants a long-term agreement with Russia and a new reasonable partition of power in the Old World.

Probably the US is getting more delusional in thinking that things can revert to the old time, that the humiliated people in the Middle East will cool down and forgive decades of indignities without salvaging their feeling concretely and pragmatically…

Things are changing and the Old World is shedding its skin.

Israel has to worry: Apartheid policies and incarcerating Palestinian youth (60% passed through the Israel prison system for humiliation) are no longer “acceptable”, even if the western media are not willing to cover Israel horror stories.

Israel thinks that it is safer to enfeeble the surrounding State armies, and that frequent mock training in mock street towns will make any significant performance against armies that actually liberated cities against far more resistant oppositions than the Israeli soldiers.

Israel must take this opportunity to withdraw from all the occupied lands in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan. And Now.




June 2023

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