Adonis Diaries

And after Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear program?

There is this perception or fallacy that if Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear program, then Iran will foolishly and immediately retaliate militarily.  Wrong.

All that Iran has to do is inform Loyd of London that it warned all the owners of oil supertankers not to cross the Hormuz Strait.  What use then for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates to increasing their oil production if oil cannot be shipped or transported?

Do you think owners of supertankers will take the risk after Iran’s warning or wait until the storm is over?

All that Iran has to do is sink one of these monstrosity of supertankers at a critical location in the Gulf to obstruct the Strait.  Do you think the US will hurry to clear the passage or clean up the Gulf under war conditions?

Mind you that 20% of world oil shipment passes by the Hormuz Strait, and that for every $10 increase in the barrel of oil, the consuming countries will witness, as a rule of thumb, a decrease of around 0.4% in its internal gross domestic product.

What if only Germany expect an increase of 3% and all the other western State do not dream of an increase of 1%?

Mind you that oil prices jumped to $145 before the 2009 financial meltdown, and the bombing of Iran’s nuclear program will kick the oil prices far beyond $145.

What if Iran decides to bomb Israel and the US embassies around the world, one or two every week? What can the US do about it?

What if Iran decides to harass Israel’s borders in the Syrian and Lebanese borders, sort of slow and gradual tactical operations?  What can the US and Israel do about it?

The people in the Middle-East are no longer afraid of all the US military might. Is the US ready to inflame and antagonize the population in this region?

What if Iran decides to arms the vast Shia majority (70%) opposition forces in Bahrain? What the US can do about it? Simply close its naval bases and wait for the storm to subside? And what about all these nefarious absolute monarchs and Emirs?

What if Iran decides to arm the Shia opposition forces in eastern Saudi Arabia? What the US can do about it?

Threatening of using military methods against Iran is mostly a smokescreen tactic in this year of election.  So what if Iran built an atomic bomb?  Israel too is a theocratic and racist State.  Is Pakistan that has atomic bombs a safer and stable State?

Only Russia will benefit from this calamity: increase of oil prices and oil production in Russia will balance the economic forces between Russia and western European States and shift most European investments toward Russia…It is very probable that Russia is working on Israel to bomb Iran…