ERBIL, Iraq — Meeting with the American ambassador some years ago in Baghdad, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki detailed what he believed was the latest threat of a coup orchestrated by former officers of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party.
“Don’t waste your time on this coup by the Baathists,” the ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, chided him, dismissing his conspiracy theories as fantasy.
Now, though, with Iraq facing its gravest crisis in years, as Sunni insurgents have swept through northern and central Iraq, Mr. Maliki’s claims about Baathist plots have been at least partly vindicated.
While fighters for the extremist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, once an offshoot of Al Qaeda, have taken on the most prominent role in the new insurgency, they have done so in alliance with a deeply rooted network of former loyalists to Saddam Hussein.
The involvement of the Baathists helps explain why just a few thousand Islamic State in Iraq and Syria fighters, many of them fresh off the battlefields of Syria, have been able to capture so much territory so quickly.
It sheds light on the complexity of the forces aligned against Baghdad in the conflict — not just the foreign-influenced group known as ISIS, but many homegrown groups, too.
And with the Baathists’ deep social and cultural ties to many areas now under insurgent control, it stands as a warning of how hard it might be for the government to regain territory and restore order.
Photo
Izzat Ibrahim al-DouriCreditKarim Sahib/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Many of the former regime loyalists, including intelligence officers and Republican Guard soldiers — commonly referred to as the “deep state” in the Arab world — belong to a group called the Men of the Army of the Naqshbandia Order, often referred to as J.R.T.N., the initials of its Arabic name.
The group announced its establishment in 2007, not long after the execution of Mr. Hussein, and its putative leader, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, was one of Mr. Hussein’s most trusted deputies and the highest-ranking figure of the old regime who avoided capture by the Americans.
Referring to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’s fighters, Michael Knights, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who has researched the Naqshbandia group, said, “They couldn’t have seized a fraction of what they did without coordinated alliances with other Sunni groups.”
In some areas under militant control, including areas around Mosul, Kirkuk and Tikrit, he said, “there are definitely pockets where the Naqshbandias are wearing the pants.”
Graphic: In Iraq Crisis, a Tangle of Alliances and Enmities
Mr. Douri, the king of clubs in decks of cards given to American forces in 2003 to identify the most-wanted regime leaders, is a mysterious figure, so furtive he was even declared dead in 2005.
It is believed that he is still alive today — he would be in his early 70s — although even that is uncertain.
After the American invasion he was said to have fled to Syria, where he reportedly worked with Syrian intelligence to restore the Baath Party within Iraq and led an insurgency from there that mainly targeted American interests.
“He’s a great totem of the old regime,” Mr. Knights said. “You need that kind of individual to keep the flame going.”
The role the Baathists are playing in the current uprising justifies not only Mr. Maliki’s suspicions, but also the longstanding concerns of American intelligence officers.
As American forces were winding down operations in Iraq, they frequently predicted that the Baathists were well positioned to exploit Sunni grievances and mount a violent challenge to the government.
Iraq’s Factions and Their Goals
The goals of of the three main groups in Iraq — Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish — as the country threatens to split apart along sectarian lines.
Analysts say the former regime figures, whose group combines strands of Islamic thought with notions of Arab nationalism typical of Baath ideology, are bedfellows with the Islamist extremists in one respect: Both sides are determined to restore Sunni rule to Iraq and rid the country of what they see as the pernicious influence of Iran, which like Iraq has a Shiite majority.
Like the extremists, the former regime figures have won sympathy from ordinary Sunnis who are alienated by Mr. Maliki’s sectarian policies.
“Our problem is with Maliki, and we will take him down and anyone that stands next to him,” said Abu Abid al-Rahman, a Naqshbandia leader in northern Iraq, in an interview.
He added: “We want to control the land all the way to Baghdad to take down Maliki’s government and to end the Iranian influence in Iraq. What is happening in Iraq today is a result of Maliki’s sectarian policy in Iraq.”
The Iraq-ISIS Conflict in Maps, Photos and Video
Since seizing Mosul on June 10, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has been attacking towns along the main highway heading south, coming closer and closer to the capital. Related Maps and Multimedia »Related article »
KeyTowns attackedBomb attacks
Miles from
Central Baghdad
Several clashes occurred at the outskirts of Samarra, where Shiite militiamen have been sent to protect the Al-Askari Shrine.
The Iraqi army retook control of Ishaqi and Muqdadiya on June 14. In Muqdadiya, a Shiite militia assisted the government forces.
Militants took control of several neighborhoods in Baquba on June 16 but were repulsed by security officers after a three-hour gun battle. Later, 44 Sunni prisoners were killed in a government-controlled police station.
At least five bomb attacks occurred in Baghdad, mainly in Shiite areas, in the week after the rebel group took Mosul. The bodies of four young men were found shot on June 17 in a neighborhood controlled by Shiite militiamen.
Falluja and many towns in the western province of Anbar have been under ISIS control for about six months.
Having occupied crucial sections of Syria over the past year and more recently seizing vast areas of Iraq, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria controls territory greater than many countries and now rivals Al Qaeda as the world’s most powerful jihadist group.Related Maps and Multimedia »Related article »
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the Sunni militant group that last week staged a stunning operation to seize Iraq’s second largest city, has been fueling sectarian violence in the region for years.Related Maps and Multimedia »Related article »
Sources: Global Terrorism Database, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (attack data); Congressional Research Service; Council on Foreign Relations; Long War Journal; Institute for the Study of War
100
80
60
Attacks That Could Be Attributed to ISIS
40
20
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Mosul
Kirkuk
Baghdad
IRAQ
Basra
2004
51 attacks
2005
58 attacks
2006
5 attacks
2007
56 attacks
2008
62 attacks
2009
78 attacks
2010
86 attacks
2011
34 attacks
2012
603 attacks
2013
419 attacks
100
80
Attacks That Could
Be Attributed to ISIS
60
40
20
’04
’05
’06
’07
’08
’09
’10
’11
’12
’13
Mosul
Baghdad
IRAQ
Basra
2004
51 attacks
2005
58 attacks
2006
5 attacks
2007
56 attacks
2008
62 attacks
2009
78 attacks
2010
86 attacks
2011
34 attacks
2012
603 attacks
2013
419 attacks
2004-05 The group emerges as “Al Qaeda in Iraq” following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Its goal is to provoke a civil war.
2006-07 The group’s February 2006 bombing of one of Iraq’s most revered Shiite shrines ignites sectarian violence across the country. After merging with several other Sunni insurgent groups, it changes its name to the Islamic State in Iraq.
2008-10 I.S.I. claims responsibility for more than 200 attacks, many in densely-populated areas around Baghdad.
2011-12 The group is relatively quiet for most of 2011, but re-emerges after American troops withdraw from Iraq.
2013 Seeing new opportunities for growth, I.S.I. enters Syria’s civil war and changes its name to reflect a new aim of establishing an Islamic religious state spanning Iraq and Syria. Its success in Syria bleeds over the border to Iraq.
2004-05 The group emerges as “Al Qaeda in Iraq” following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Its goal is to provoke a civil war.
2006-07 The group’s February 2006 bombing of one of Iraq’s most revered Shiite shrines ignites sectarian violence across the country. After merging with several other Sunni insurgent groups, it changes its name to the Islamic State in Iraq.
2008-10 I.S.I. claims responsibility for more than 200 attacks, many in densely-populated areas around Baghdad.
2011-12 The group is relatively quiet for most of 2011, but re-emerges after American troops withdraw from Iraq.
2013 Seeing new opportunities for growth, I.S.I. enters Syria’s civil war and changes its name to reflect a new aim of establishing an Islamic religious state spanning Iraq and Syria. Its success in Syria bleeds over the border to Iraq.
2004-05 The group emerges as “Al Qaeda in Iraq” following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Its goal is to provoke a civil war.
2006-07 The group’s February 2006 bombing of one of Iraq’s most revered Shiite shrines ignites sectarian violence across the country. After merging with several other Sunni insurgent groups, it changes its name to the Islamic State in Iraq.
2008-10 I.S.I. claims responsibility for more than 200 attacks, many in densely-populated areas around Baghdad.
2011-12 The group is relatively quiet for most of 2011, but re-emerges after American troops withdraw from Iraq.
2013 Seeing new opportunities for growth, I.S.I. enters Syria’s civil war and changes its name to reflect a new aim of establishing an Islamic religious state spanning Iraq and Syria. Its success in Syria bleeds over the border to Iraq.
2004-05 The group emerges as “Al Qaeda in Iraq” following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Its goal is to provoke a civil war.
2006-07 The group’s February 2006 bombing of one of Iraq’s most revered Shiite shrines ignites sectarian violence across the country. After merging with several other Sunni insurgent groups, it changes its name to the Islamic State in Iraq.
2008-10 I.S.I. claims responsibility for more than 200 attacks, many in densely-populated areas around Baghdad.
2011-12 The group is relatively quiet for most of 2011, but re-emerges after American troops withdraw from Iraq.
2013 Seeing new opportunities for growth, I.S.I. enters Syria’s civil war and changes its name to reflect a new aim of establishing an Islamic religious state spanning Iraq and Syria. Its success in Syria bleeds over the border to Iraq.
Note: Before 2011, less information was available on who was responsible for attacks, so the number of ISIS attacks from 2004 to 2010 may be under-counted.
Sources: Global Terrorism Database, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (attack data); Congressional Research Service; Council on Foreign Relations; Long War Journal; Institute for the Study of War
After sweeping across the porous border from Syria to overrun Mosul, insurgents aligned with the jihadist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria continued to press south down the main north-south highway toward Baghdad.Related Maps and Multimedia »Related article »
Mosul
Area of
detail
Tikrit
June 13
June 10
Mosul captured
Baghdad
Iraq
Jalawla
Kirkuk
Sadiyah
June 11
Tikrit
captured
Basra
June 12
Dhuluiya captured
June 11-12
Samarra
Tigris R.
About 110 miles
Recent
clashes
30
June 11
Parts of Baiji
captured
20
30
Baghdad
Ishaki Dujail
June 14
Taji
Lake Tharthar
Falluja
Ramadi
Euphrates R.
After capturing Mosul, Tikrit and parts of a refinery in Baiji earlier last week, insurgents attacked Samarra, where Shiite militias helped pro-government forces. On Friday, they seized Jalawla and Sadiyah but were forced back by government troops backed by Kurdish forces. There were new clashes in Ishaki and Dujail on Saturday.
June 10
Mosul
captured
Area of
detail
Mosul
Tikrit
Iraq
Baghdad
Basra
About
110
miles
Kirkuk
Tigris R.
Recent clashes
June 11
Parts of Baiji
captured
30
June 11
Tikrit captured
June 13
Jalawla
30
June 11-12
Samarra attacked
June 12
Dhuluiya
captured
Sadiyah
20
June 14
Ishaki
Lake
Tharthar
Dujail
Taji
Euphrates R.
Ramadi
Baghdad
Falluja
June 10
Mosul
captured
June 11-12
Samarra
attacked
June 12
Dhuluiya
captured
June 13
Jalawla and
Sadiyah
attacked
June 14
Ishaki and
Dujail
attacked
June 11
Parts of
Baiji captured
June 11
Tikrit
captured
Kirkuk
Tigris R.
20
30
About 110 miles
30
Baghdad
Recent
clashes
Taji
Falluja
Lake Tharthar
Mosul
Area of
detail
Tikrit
Ramadi
Euphrates R.
Baghdad
Iraq
Najaf
Basra
Insurgents swept across the Syrian border and captured Mosul, Tikrit and parts of the oil refinery in Baiji early last week. On Thursday, they deployed north and east of Samarra, while Shiite militias reinforced pro-government forces in the city. Insurgents also pressed south and took Dhuluiya. On Friday, they temporarily seized two towns, Jalawla and Sadiyah, but were forced to withdraw by government troops, backed by Kurdish forces. There were fresh clashes in Dujail, Ishaki and Dhuluiya on Saturday.
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has vowed to establish a caliphate — a unified Islamic government ruled by a caliph, someone considered to be a successor to Muhammad’s political authority — stretching from western Syria across Iraq to the eastern border with Iran. This map shows the boundaries envisioned by the ISIS.
Then: American forces took control of Mosul in April 2003. What followed was a period of relative peace until mid-2004 when periodic insurgent attacks flared, resulting in a large-scale battle in November. The death toll reached dozens, including a number of Iraqi soldiers who were publicly beheaded.Related Article »
Now: In perhaps the most stunning recent development, Sunni militants drove Iraqi military forces out of Mosul on June 10, forcing a half-million residents to flee the city. Iraqi soldiers reportedly dropped their weapons and donned civilian clothing to escape ISIS insurgents.
Moises Saman for The New York Times
Then: Falluja played a pivotal role in the American invasion of Iraq. It was the site of a number of large-scale battles with insurgents. In April 2003, it became a hot bed for controversy when American soldiers opened fire on civilians after claiming they had been shot at.
Incessant fighting left the city decimated, leveling a majority of its infrastructure and leaving about half its original population.Related Article »
Now: Sunni militants seized Falluja’s primary municipal buildings on Jan. 3. The takeover came as an early and significant victory for the group, initiating a slew of attacks south of the city.
Max Becherer for The New York Times
Tikrit
TikritIraq
Then: The home of Saddam Hussein, Tikrit became the target of an early American military operation during the Iraq war. Securing it proved cumbersome, however, as insurgents mounted continued attacks on the city for years afterward.
On Dec. 14, 2003, Hussein was found hiding in an eight-foot deep hole, just south of Tikrit.Related Article »
Now: Tikrit fell to ISIS insurgents on June 11, clearing a path for them to march on to Baiji, home to one of Iraq’s foremost oil-refining operations. After taking the city in less than a day, militants continued the fight just south, in Samarra.
Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
Samarra
SamarraIraq
Then: Samarra is home to the Askariya shrine, which was bombed in 2006, prompting an extended period of sectarian violence across the country.Related Article »
Now: After an initial attack on June 5, ISIS insurgents have now positioned themselves just miles away from Samarra. It is unclear whether they are capable of capturing the city in the coming days, but the Shiite shrine makes it a volatile target.
Ayman Oghanna for The New York Times
A look at the goals of of the three main groups in Iraq — Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish — as the country threatens to split apart along sectarian lines.Related Maps and Multimedia »
The insurgents, originating in Syria, moved through Iraq’s Sunni-dominated north and west, occupying cities and towns surrendered by Iraqi soldiers and police. They have largely avoided the Kurd-dominated northeast, but have threatened to march on to Baghdad and into the Shiite-dominated areas of the south.
Related Maps and Multimedia »The United Nations estimates that at least 500,000 Iraqis were displaced by the takeover of Mosul. Food supplies are low and there is limited fresh water and little electricity. An additional 430,000 people were displaced by fighting In Anbar Province, which insurgents have controlled for more than six months.Related Maps and Multimedia »
Safin Hamed/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
An Iraqi family, one of thousands who have fled Mosul for the autonomous Kurdish region, walks past tents at a temporary camp.
Background on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the Islamist group that appears to be in control of the second largest city in Iraq.Related Maps and Multimedia »
Rekan al-Kurwi, a tribal leader in Diyala Province, where both groups have been operating, said: “ISIS are extremists and strangers. The Naqshbandias are not strangers. We know most of them. In some areas that ISIS has taken they are killing our people, they are imposing their Islamic laws on us. We do not want that, and the Naqshbandias are not doing this. They have a good strategy in cooperating with the people.”
Last year, Iraq experienced a mini-version of the Sunni uprising it faces today. In that case, the Naqshbandias seemed to be in the lead, directing groups of fighters who briefly seized some territories after Iraqi security forces opened fire on a Sunni protest camp in Hawija, a village near Kirkuk that is a Naqshbandia stronghold, killing dozens.
In many ways that fight, after the Hawija raid, presaged what is happening now. It galvanized Sunni opposition to the government, which is being exploited by the alliance between the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria group and the Baathists, who are positioning themselves as secular guardians of Sunni Arab nationalism.
Continue reading the main story 237Comments
While they may be allies today in the interest of fighting a common enemy — the Shiite-dominated government of Mr. Maliki — the two sides are unlikely to coexist if they should attain power in some areas. The Baathists, being more secular and more nationalist, have no interest in living under the harsh Islamic law that ISIS has already started to put in place in Mosul.
“We are fighting now with ISIS, but we are protecting Iraq from their religious ideas,” said Abu Tulayha al-Obaidi, a Naqshbandia fighter in northern Iraq, who said the group gets most of its weapons from smugglers coming from Syria, Turkey and Iraq’s Kurdish region in the north. “We will not kill innocent people, or soldiers who put down their weapons. We are like the new brain of ISIS.”
Already, there have been reports that the two sides have skirmished inside Mosul, but the Naqshbandias denied that. Mr. Knights said: “For the moment they need each other. But they are going to fight each other eventually.”
Sources: Institute for the Study of War; Long War Journal
KeyTowns attackedBomb attacks
ABOUT 140 MILES
TO MOSUL
Miles from
Central Baghdad
ABOUT 80 MILES
TO KIRKUK
Several clashes occurred at the outskirts of Samarra, where Shiite militiamen have been sent to protect the Al-Askari Shrine.
70
Adhaim
June 15
Samarra
JUNE 11, 13, 17
60
Al-Mutasim
JUNE 14
Dhuluiya
JUNE 12
50
Ishaqi
Muqdadiya
The Iraqi army retook control of Ishaqi and Muqdadiya on June 14. In Muqdadiya, a Shiite militia assisted the government forces.
40
Dujail
JUNE 14
30
Militants took control of several neighborhoods in Baquba on June 16 but were repulsed by security officers after a three-hour gun battle. Later, 44 Sunni prisoners were killed in a government-controlled police station.
Baquba
June 16, 17
Tarmiyah
JUNE 11
20
Falluja and many towns in the western province of Anbar have been under ISIS control for about six months.
Tigris
River
10
At least five bomb attacks occurred in Baghdad, mainly in Shiite areas, in the week after the rebel group took Mosul. The bodies of four young men were found shot on June 17 in a neighborhood controlled by Shiite militiamen.
Towns attacked 
Bomb attacks
Moises Saman for The New York Times
Max Becherer for The New York Times
Tikrit Iraq
Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
Samarra Iraq
Ayman Oghanna for The New York Times
Adonis Diaries 