Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘obscurantist Wahhabi Saudi Arabia

Is the humongous human disastrous calamity in Syria behind the frenetic activities for a peaceful political transition…?

The Congo is a continent in size and has double the population of Syria.

The Congo has been plagued with 3 decades of genocide, civil wars, border militia infiltration from adjacent unstable 9 countries…

The Congo suffered famine, kid-soldiers, all kinds of atrocities and mass killing…

In these 3 decades, the Congo witnessed 5 million who took refuge in bordering countries and another 5 million transferred within the country, and the UN has 20,000 troops to keep the peace…

It took only 2 years for the Syrians to experience a higher magnitude of the Congo calamities, surpassing it, and the adjacent States are too small to accommodate these massive influx of refugees.

And yet, Syria is by far more modern than Congo:

1. The Syrians were enjoying free public education, free medical care…

2. The Syrians were self-sufficient in foodstuff and produced 80% of their basic medication…

3. The Syrians were lately self-sufficient in energy, clothing manufactured product…

4. The Syrians had the best highway network, linking all the main cities and villages…

5. The Syrians enjoyed 4 decades of dictatorship system that brought security, stability and relative peace within Syria…

Lebanon 13-year civil war didn’t affect the neighboring States that much. It took only 2 years for the Syrians to let its neighboring States feel the heat and ugliness of civil wars.

Lebanon with 4 million is crumbling under the influx of 2 million Syrian refugees:

1. The Syrian women are giving birth in Lebanon in number exceeding that of the Lebanese women

2. The school system in Lebanon can accommodate only 300,000 students, and there are 400,000 Syrian children in Lebanon requiring education

3. And Lebanon has no government and the Parliament has extended its tenure for 2 more years on lame excuses, and the judicial system is not functioning properly…

Jordan is a poor country by any standard and is succumbing to the same influx of Syrian refugees, kind of a third of its total population

And all these refugees are living in make-shift tents and relying on the UN to feed them on a daily basis…

And another winter is coming, and polio and other diseases are spreading like a wild fire and vaccination of kids are lacking…

Why the multinationals selected Syria to be the example for all small nations who decide to be self-sufficient in energy and foodstuff?

The first ready-made answer is “Syria is a strategic State“. Wrong!

Africa is strategic: It has the vast lands for cultivation, all the raw materials, the water resources, the cheap labor force…

Singapore and Malaysia are strategic: More than 80% of the world trade passes by the straights in these two countries. The trade crossing Syria is insignificant, and Syria is a small country and lacking raw materials…

The second ready-made answer is “Syria is floating on oil and gas…

This is correct, but oil and gas have been transformed into market commodities. Any producing country wants to sell its oil and gas, and will sell it to whoever is willing to buy…   Israel is benefiting from this long delay in extracting gas and oil: Since Israel has already started exploiting its offshore oil fields, this delay will increase Israel market share in Europe from the production of the Eastern Mediterranean energy fields.

Unless an Armageddon War is being planned, and all resources to be denied the “enemy” and strategic lines of supply closed…

The third ready-made answer is “All the main oil and gas pipelines in the Middle-East must cross Syria to be profitable, and Syria refused that Turkey be selected as the main export port for oil and gas to Europe...”

That sound a reasonable excuse for the multinationals and Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf Emirates with over-sized Ego that consider money to buy everything… and react violently to buffeted monarchical ego. (Read link in note 2)

Another fourth ready-made answer is: “Unstable Syria will be more lenient in negotiating oil and gas deals with multinationals. And Syria will get whatever it gets for the reconstruction process...” This is a false and lame excuse: This Syrians will not succumb to such blackmails, and the western nations will be coughing up plenty of financial aids, until any stable government in Syria is ready to deal and deliver…

Still, the four previous reasons cannot be the main root-cause for a calamity of that magnitude: They are catalysts to convince short-term profit mongers in the global decision makers to disturb political systems and plague the people…

The fifth ready-made answer is an illusion that is taking roots in the feeble minded: “The western powers want the last semi-secular bastion in the Middle-East, after the various “Arab Spring” upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt to fall to Islamic extremists and pinpoint a “credible” global enemy to its citizens, as during the Communist Iron Wall… “

And why the western nations want the Middle-East to be ruled by extremist Islam? Is that the best way to convince their citizens that a third world war is imminent, and the various western parliaments will open the purses for printing money in order to relieve the short-term financial difficulties?

It has been demonstrated again and again that global wars ends with many empires falling and crumbling, and the economy of the winners to improve in the short-term, but never in the medium and longer-terms…

Do you think that China would vanish in a global war?

Do you think that Russia would vanish in a global war?

Do you think that the USA would vanish in a global war?

Do you think that India would vanish in a global war?

Do you think that Brazil would vanish in a global war?

All these vast and populous countries won’t vanish in a global war…

So which States will be eradicated, dismembered, subjugated to mandated powers?

The main root causes for the Syrian catastrophe may be:

1. One good reason that is barely posited upfront is the availability of water resources that most country in this region lack and will certainly be lacking in the coming decade. (Read link in note 3)

2. An extension to Iran economic embargo by exhausting Iran’s economy and finances in recurring wars, such as in Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain. Cutting the path for Iran to get firmly established in a stable and secure Syria, as it is established in a convulsive Iraq, and an unstable Lebanon might relieve Saudi Arabia and Israel momentarily, but the deep problems in these two States are endemic and are not related to Iran.

Basically, It is Israel and Saudi Arabia who are raising so much dusts over Iran nuclear program, and the US is trying to temporize with these two irrelevant States with capacity of only giving the US humongous headaches due to their well-financed lobbies.

3. Every one of these reasons has Israel looming from behind the scene: Israel want Syria to emulate policies matching the readiness of the adjacent “Arabic” States of Egypt and Jordan to negotiate a lopsided peace treaty that is biased toward Israel, and water and gas pipelines reaching and crossing Israel are in the forefront of Israel’s demands.

Are the elite classes in the western Nations still viewing the people in the Middle-East and Africa as colonial States and should be totally relying on them for their survival?

That a million dead here and a million slaughtered there in the former colonies are not matters of concern to mankind civilization?

This turmoil was to last  barely six months and things went out of hands.

And every one engaged in that morass lost, and lost heavily financially, morally and in world credibility as reasonable governments.

Many regimes will fall before a transitional government is settled in Syria.

Already, the Emir of Qatar handed over the reign to a son. Egypt of Morsi fell. The Moslem Brotherhood in Tunisia is battling for dear life.

And Turkey has lost all credibility as a moderate and developed nation in human rights, democratic processes and human development indicators… Turkey is one of the biggest loser: Shaky and flimsy democracy that is no longer tenable to cope with extensive Extremist Islam on its borders and a Kurdish movement increased confidence and means to check Turkish military preemptive attacks…

Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf Emirates are grappling with this last hurrah to be on the world scene.

Russia wanted also a weakened regime in Syria, but this calamity disturbed the name of the game. Russia has jumped at this opportunity  to re-establish its global role on “The Hot”, a condition that impresses the minds and is very convincing on its determination to regain its global position as a superpower. Russia could have resolved the situation in 2011 if it wished to limit the damages.

If the US fails to grab this golden opportunity to settle peacefully the Iranian nuclear program, the US will be losing on all score boards in the Syrian catastrophe. Iran will have no choice but to firmly link with China and Russia on their global strategy.

The US should know by now that apartheid Israel and obscurantist Wahhabi Saudi Arabia have no choices but to rely on the US for their survival. These two irrelevant and “rogue” States can bark their head off and pretend to show whatever rotten teeth they have, they are plainly a huge liability on the US moral and democratic credibility in the coming decade.

Note 1: Three decades ago, Norway had no expertise in oil and gas exploration, extraction and even processing. And it managed to do it without major oil multinational disruption of Norway decision to doing it on its own and setting precedents in drawing laws for the distribution of this new found wealth and allocating portion to a “Sovereign National Reserve Fund” for the generation to come… Why Norway was not destabilized?

Actually, it was an Iraqi oil expert, a resident of Norway, who lead the Norwegian oil team to becoming a success story

Note 2:  Gas pipelines https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2013/11/05/one-truth-behind-the-war-in-syria-qatarius-natural-gas-pipeline/

Note 3: Water resources  https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2013/10/08/longer-term-cause-for-destabilizing-the-near-east-region-pipelines-for-water-resources/

 

  

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How many ways to get engaged in Syria’s problems?

The latest news is the arrival to Syria of a few dozen “on the field” Arab observers:  The ultimate purpose of the observers is still not clear, on the ground that any resolution of the situation in Syria has been frozen for a couple of months, until Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Russia, France, and Israel… get their plans together of “what the next regime should look like, to the benefit in stability of every major regional State…”

The quick coming to power of the Moslem Brotherhood and the strong show of force of the extremist Salafist Moslems in the voting booth are giving serious worries to every State, even the most obscurantist Wahhabi Saudi Arabia monarchy

Do you feel like getting engaged in current Syria turmoil?

Why should you? If the only news you are getting are from one side of the equation?

Are you ready to invest time to understanding both sides in the upheaval, or you think that you are not into a “legal situation” and one killing of an “unarmed” civilian is fair enough to destitute an entire political regime?

Would 4,000 deaths be considered a valid cut-off number to start the process of comprehending “what’s going on in Syria”?

There are many groups of western hackers supporting the internal “revolutionaries” in exporting their photos, videos, stories in a way to bypass the Syrian “sophisticated” counter-digital insurgencies

That is very commendable. Do the hackers ask the insurgents or opposition groups: “what are your political program after the demise of the regime?  Have you been engaging in dialogue and discussion with the “neutral” communities, the minority communities, the “silent majority” who prefer Law and Order above any kinds of reforms, biased election laws, skewed democratic processes…”

The strategic importance of Syria in this volatile region, the unity of its large army, and the many effective ways that Syria can disturb the political state of affairs in the entire Middle East are not to be taken lightly.

International military action without an agreement with Russia, and full coordination with Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq is nearly impossible to bear any fruit, except more social disturbances and political instabilities in every regional State.

Do strategic values supersede any inaction on the ground?

And would that means staying cool and witnessing the “senseless slaughter” of thousands of civilians?

A new term has been put forward: “civilian diplomacy”, channel the power of citizens around the world to pressure State governments from sending arms to both parties and blocking infiltration of foreign elements to Syria…

There are a variety of civil disobedience alternatives in order to built a unifying pragmatic programs for before and after the fall of the regime.

Many people wrote on social platforms on the ways to support the opposition movement. For example:

1. Support forums for civil resistance planning and evaluation: Any strategic plan for a transition government should ideally be drafted by Syrians living inside Syria.  Such a plan could be generated through an iterative process involving inside and outside activists. There are NGOs already working with Syrian exile members to help them think through civil resistance options.  Tight coordination with Local Coordination Committees (LCCs)/activist youth on the inside (via secure communications), and their feedback in the evaluate and execution processes has to be worked out first thing first.

2. Encourage the internal opposition movements to consider unity “shock tactics”: Christians and Alawi religious sects and minorities may not like the regime, but they prefer an unsatisfactory status quo to an uncertain and potentially hostile future. They need reassurances that go beyond words. Potentially powerful symbolic actions include:

One: a Friday “protest” whose theme is unity and involves repairing Christian churches and picking up trash in mixed communities;

Two: candlelight vigils in Damascus and Aleppo organized by a cross-confessional group of Syrian women to commemorate all victims of the uprising;

Three: strong, well-publicized denunciations of violence targeting minorities by influential Sunni leaders.  So far, the external transitional government, and appointed externally,has not demonstrated any willingness to condemn atrocious activities by its members that are not within the human rights programs and behaviors…

Four: letters hand-delivered to Christian leaders requesting their participation in the Arab League monitoring mission.

3. Encourage inside opposition to strengthen parallel structures and institutions: In an environment where street protests and labor strikes are risky, the opposition should be encouraged to continue to strengthen autonomous local institutions. It is difficult for the regime to target large numbers of people who stop supporting state-run schools and clinics and instead set up their own parallel systems – but the message of non-cooperation with the regime would be clear.  The diaspora and business community should be involved in supporting private clinics and charities to help build local autonomy, possibly under the LCCs’ organizational umbrella.

4. Connect/train Syrian opposition in crowd-sourcing technology: Crowd-sourcing technology can help the Syrian opposition plan and execute protests, monitor security force movements, collect and document evidence of human rights abuses and atrocities…

There are teams that follow and help apply all the technology tools (Martus, Mobile Accord, Frontline SMS, Ushahidi, Cognitive Edge) that could provide the Syrian opposition a very useful parallel communication structure.

5. Help the nonviolent opposition publicize successes: Syrians need to see that civil resistance is working to discourage them from giving up, taking up arms, or waiting for outside military intervention.  Every regime concession (e.g. release of prisoners, allowing in monitors, etc.) and concrete sign of regime isolation needs to be credited to the courageous nonviolent resistance.  Embassies should publicly credit the nonviolent opposition for successes and help them publicize victories over the TV, radio and other channels of communication.

6. Encourage the opposition to negotiate unified programs in any kind of elections:  It is unclear how the regime will approach upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, but the opposition should at least have a plan for whether and how to participate in elections. Boycotting might seem like the obvious thing to do unless the opposition could take advantage of any political space opened up by elections.

Although it is likely that Assad would rig the elections, this course of action is fraught with risk, particularly if the opposition is prepared to show the fraud and mobilize around it.  Training Syrian youth in election monitoring and parallel vote tabulation (ideally by an Arab NGO) could be very helpful down the road.

7. Help the opposition think through strikes and boycotts: There are dozens of different types of strikes, boycotts, and “go slow” tactics available to nonviolent activists. These dispersed actions could allow more Syrians to participate in the opposition while minimizing the risk of regime repression. Syrian activists and sympathetic businessmen should be encouraged to first analyze which businesses (in Syria and outside) would be most vulnerable to consumer boycotts, which industries would be most susceptible to worker strikes or collective “underperformance”, and then develop a plan to target those businesses and industries.

The oil sector, pro-regime businesses, and companies whose workers are unhappy with pay or working conditions would be obvious candidates.  Syrian exile communities could be encouraged to develop campaigns targeting pro-regime businesses on the outside using well-publicized boycotts, sit-ins, and pickets.

8. Encourage diaspora and business community to develop a solidarity/strike fund: Striking Syrians need to know that there is funding available to support themselves and their families, particularly in the event that they lose their jobs or other sources of income. Bank accounts could be set up in Lebanon, Dubai, Turkey or elsewhere for that purpose (and other Embassies in Damascus could help distribute quick response funds to needy families). This is currently being done piece meal, but greater coordination would help the nonviolent protestors.

9. Tap into celebrities and famous Syrian diaspora: There are a number of famous Syrians (actors, singers, comics, etc.) in the exile community whose popularity transcends sect, ethnicity or confession. These are the figures whose star power could help spread support for the opposition, make special appeals to minorities, and focus media attention on the nonviolent resistance. We should encourage the Syrian opposition to tap into this potentially huge resource.

Ideally, famous Alawi and Christian Syrians who sympathize with the opposition should lead outreach efforts to prominent Christian leaders.

10. Encourage the opposition to embrace tactical negotiations: By demonstrating openness to negotiations, the opposition reinforces its image as a force of moderation rather than a bunch of extremists. The perception of moderation, in the case of Syria, could help sell the opposition to minority members and fence-sitters.

More importantly, being open to informal negotiations with members of the regime’s remaining pillars (security forces, bureaucracy, business elite), whose loyalties might be wavering, allows the opposition to communicate their intentions related to a post-Assad Syria – i.e. that these individuals have a future in it.

The opposition risks losing the street if their representatives in the negotiating table is not acceptable by the vast majority of opponents, especially internal groups.  The representatives must be able to explain the purpose and parameters of the negotiations to the resisting population and maintain transparency. Most importantly, opposition movements who choose to negotiate should never lose the ability to mobilize the masses and target the regime with nonviolent sanctions.

11. Dealing with the armed opposition: It is unlikely that the “Free Syrian Army” and other armed groups will disappear. The nonviolent opposition should maintain informal but regular communication with the armed groups.

Ideally, defectors will be kept busy in neighboring countries and limit their armed attacks inside the country. Also, defectors could be involved in nonviolent forms of sabotage that obstruct the regime’s killing machine but do not result in injuries or deaths.  To the extent possible, defectors should be exposed to civil resistance materials, training, and also face trials for activities outside human rights limits.

12. A special legal department must be appointed to condemn all activities and speeches by the opposition members who emulate the regime speeches and actions against freedom of opinion, discussion, and human rights behaviors…


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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