Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Olmert

Extracted from my diary, and written on November 24, 2006

Posted on October 23, 2008

It is a sunny and clear day. I think that it is important to first review the study prepared by Mark Perry and Alistair Crook for the British Forum of Confrontations on the July war between Israel and the Lebanese Resistance of Hezbollah.

(Actually, the main objective of Israel was to completely destroy all Lebanon infrastructure, bridges, “refineries”, highways, and Dahiyat in south Beirut. That’s what Israel did)

The bogus study came to the conclusion that Hezbollah won the war and was successful in penetrating the Israeli strategy, its cycle of decision making in the chain of command, intelligence gathering, and military maneuvering.

Though Hassan Nasrallah, (General Secretary of Hezbollah), warned Israel in many public speeches that Hezbollah is about to capture Israeli soldiers in exchange of the release of the Lebanese prisoners, still Israel was taken by complete surprise at the bold attack: mainly Israel supposed that this maneuver will not take place during summer when the “Arab” States from the Gulf and the Muslim Lebanese Shia emigrants flock to Lebanon for vacation.

The Hezbollah operation was easily carried out, and the later videos demonstrated that fact.

The incompetence of the Israeli commander, who failed to follow the military procedures, resulted in two tanks being destroyed in a minefield and many Israeli soldiers died. This unwarranted Israeli military error forced Olmert PM to escalate the confrontation into a full-fledged war, ahead of schedule set by the USA Bush Jr. for late autumn.

Though the vicious surprised escalation by Israel took Hezbollah by surprise it managed within minutes to mobilize its forces and the rocket officers.  The study estimated that Hezbollah has 600 rocket depots hidden 40 meters deep in mountains south of the Litany River.

The Hezbollah political officers had no knowledge of the locations of the depots for security reasons, even a field commander knew about the location of only three depots within his field of operation.

All the varied Israeli sources of military intelligence failed to accurately locate the rocket sites, as well as locating the leaders of Hezbollah, since Not a single one was killed; even Abu Jaafar, the southern military commander of Hezbollah did not die as Israel proclaimed on June 28.

Israel was flabbergasted by the total adherence of the Hezbollah militants by the war truth, 33 days later, a fact that confirmed the effective communication among Hezbollah bases after the methodical Israeli aerial bombardments for over 30 days and nights.

Hezbollah was also very successful in counter thwarting the Israeli espionage operations in Lebanon: it captured 16 spies before the war, many more during the war, and leaked erroneous information to the Israelis about the rocket sites which resulted in civilian casualties and worldwide uproar for the Qana massacre.

(The same town that witnessed the massacre of 110 civilians massed in the UN compound in 1996)

Israel lost as many soldiers and officers as Hezbollah did, or about 180.

The Hezbollah Nasr brigade in the south, strong of 3,000 fighters, did not need to be replenished neither in fighters or supplies during the whole period of the war.

The cause of continuous wavering of the Israeli military command to start the land invasion was due mainly to the disastrous previous small skirmishes that proved that the Hezbollah fighters were steadfast in holding on to their towns and villages and will not retreat.

When Israel called up the reserves sooner than expected on June 21, the US military strategist surmised that the Israeli army is in great trouble and is no longer doing well as hoped.

On June 21, Ehud Olmert PM urgently demanded from the US ammunition supplies which confirmed that Israel’s air depots have been depleted within the first week of its air strikes, and that Israel is in deep trouble.

The environs of the towns of Maroun El Ras and Bent Jbeil, by the border, did not fall in the hands of Israel for the duration of the war, even after Israel called up an additional 15,000 soldiers and the Golani brigade to dislodge the tenacious fighters.

The Merkava tank was defenseless against the second generation of anti tank missiles used by Hezbollah and which were fabricated in 1973.

At the same time, the “Khyber One” rockets which targeted the airbase in Afula, deep inside Israel, could not be intercepted.

Finally, the US hurriedly worked out a UN truth, at the instigation of Israel on August 10, because the Zionist soldiers, deep in south Lebanon, feared encirclement, total defeat, and surrender.

The consequences of this defeat, as stated by the study, were disastrous to both Israeli image of an undefeated State and the US foreign policies.

First, when US diplomats and politicians tried to be in touch with Jordan, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia after the war they realized that nobody in these pro American States dared respond to their calls;

Second, the US realized that its air superiority in a war against Iran is susceptible to be a failure in order to snatch any quick victory;

Third, the popularity of Hassan Nasrallah has become overwhelming in all the Arab and Muslim World, a fact that pursuing the accusations of terrorism will ridicule the US administration and sap any remnants of its credibility;

Fourth, the strategy adopted by Hezbollah discredited the complete political affiliation of the Arab regimes with the US policies in order to gain a few irrelevant advantages;

Fifth, the US is already unable to contemplate a coalition of the Arab and Muslim States in anticipation of an invasion of Iran, simply because these States can no longer afford to look as US stooges toward their people;

Sixth, any attempt by Israel to disable the Iranian nuclear plants will instigate a retaliation toward Israel nuclear plants and further weakening of the American presence in the Arab Gulf States as well as the fall of many pro American Arab States in a domino fashion. (A few days ago, an air-air missile fell by Israel Nuclear site of Dimona, and the Dome of patriotes failed to intercept it.)

Seventh, Israel is going to need, at least 15 years, to rebuild its military and intelligence capabilities in order to regain the image of undefeated army. Israel lost all its spying bunkers (labelled security services in Beirut) in 2008 by a 3-day cleaning up by Hezbollah.

Eight, the position of Iran in Iraq has drastically increased and the Shiaa might soon start an offensive against the US and British troops, their previous allies;

Ninth, the position of Syria in Lebanon has strengthened which is a defeat to the French program since it would be impossible from now on to form a government in Lebanon that antagonizes Syria.

The previous consequences of the study are conjectures so far.

Let us review what happened since after the July war.

First, George W. Bush administration was defeated grandly in the House and the Senate.

This administration has voiced readiness to consider alternative solutions to the Iraqi quagmire.  This administration will view world politics from a different perspective, except in the Greater Middle East. 

It seems that the Bush government is expressing its bitterness in our region. The Bush administration is the cause that the unity governments in Palestine and Lebanon are being postponed weeks after weeks at the detriment of our security and economic development.

Second, Britain has already decided to hand over the civil administration in Basra by the end of the year and has plans to retreat from Iraq altogether: Britain and the European States are vigorously seeking open and direct negotiations with Iran and Syria for a political resolution in Iraq

Third, Pakistan has reached a truth in the provinces bordering Afghanistan and is no longer willing to pursue the US maddening demands to fighting terrorism.

Fourth, Bush is facing serious hurdles meeting with “Arab” leaders. The Iraqi Prime Minister Maleki is not sincerely willing to meet Bush for the time being after Moqtada Sadr threatened to quit the government and the Chamber of deputies if he did, because the recent onslaught of the US forces in Sadr City in Baghdad.

Fifth, Saudi Kingdom is diversifying its military hardware by purchasing for over $1, 5 billions from Britain and Europe. Vice President Cheney visited Saudi Arabia to pressure it to purchase military hardware from the US.

Sixth, the US is about to transfer its major military bases from Qatar to another Gulf State after Qatar was actively flaunting the US plans in the region and openly voicing its concerns in the UN.

Seven, China has publicly announced that it will continue to aid Pakistan with its nuclear programs; China is implicitly behind the Iranian peaceful nuclear program and that is why the US is feeling impotent in setting up an economic effective embargo or contemplating any military alternative.

Eight, a recent survey by a European agency showed that Israel is considered the worst racist and apartheid State.

Nine, the US and Israel are trying hopelessly to start a civil war in Lebanon by effectively assassinating the Maronite Minister Pierre Gemayel Jr. Jordan King Abdullah is warning of imminent civil wars in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq. Bush is coming to Amman to meet Iraq Maliki PM and, most probably, to put the final touches to the execution of the civil war in Lebanon.

Ten, the foreign visitors to Lebanon are flocking to the south to witness the complete destruction of 30 towns and villages; they are carrying back video, pictures and interviews with the southern residents after shedding bitter tears at the view of these cataclysmic scenes. Hopefully a renewed awareness in the US and Europe of the main task of this mercenary State of Israel will expand.

Eleven, the parliamentary election in Bahrain, 70% of the population being of Shia sect, allowed the Shia and leftist movement to win big.

Twelve, Israel Olmert PM has finally agreed to a truth with Hamas in order to put a stop to the “Al Qassam” rockets directed to the kibbutz Sderot closest to Gaza.

Thirteen, Iranian Prime Minister has promised to help the US in Iraq if the US forces vacate completely this country.

Note: With the advent of Donald Trump, many “Arabic” States, especially those pseudo-State in the Gulf have officially recognized Israel.

Why Israel went to war in 2006? (October 18, 2008)

I have been reading “Israel in state of chock” by Frederic Pons and many other manuscripts on the subject. Even the Winograd report and the other two reports didn’t dare state directly or clearly why Israel went to war in July 12, 2006; maybe the full reports did but were not released to the general public.

The way I see the big picture of the main reason Israel went to war against Hezbollah in July 2006 is that this war was not based on any strategic gain neither politically nor militarily at the time; there are indications that the Bush Administration and Chief of Staff Haloutz were readying a full scale war around September.  The crux of the matter was that many ministers in the Olmert Administrations were seriously implicated judiciary for financial and moral wrong doings and they hoped that a striking military victory, in this golden opportunity offered to them, would restore their political credibility or at least restrain the legal procedures raised in their cases.

For example, Ehud Olmert was already facing investigation for financial conflict of interest, the Justice Minister Haim Ramon was indicted of sexual harassment, the President Moshe Katsav was investigated for cases of rape, the minister of finance Avraham Hirschon accepted dubious transfer of funds destined to the syndicate Histadrout and the Chief of Staff Halouz wanted to make profit by selling his judiciously invested stock shares before the announcement of war. To exacerbate matters, the Defense minister Amir Peretz was totally ignorant in military affairs and didn’t do his military service too and Haloutz and his inner circle of officers had already a detailed plan for air strikes in coordination with the US air command; Haloutz wanted “his war” and to prove the superiority of his strategy relying solely on air power; and mostly to make lots of profit with his closest allies in the military industrial complex for the replenishment of the military arsenal. Thus, the restricted war group of seven ministers didn’t include ministers of expertise in military matters such as Shaul Mofaz or Benjamin Ben Eliezer or the minister of the interior that could contribute in their opinions and would ultimately be most directly implicated in war and its aftermath such as the minister of Foreign Affairs Tzipi Livni.

The military in Israel was not “prepared” or ready for war simply because society and the younger generations had other more urgent difficulties to worry about.  More than 25% of the eligible individuals to be drafted for their 3 years term avoided the call for military service, especially the most educated and living in large cities and the ultra-orthodox Israelites.  The reservists had made it a habit to skip their 40-day service per year because of lax regulations on account that the army wanted to save on its budget.  The so-called Home Front was totally neglected and no resources were allocated to social services or to improve conditions for any long term war situation. More than 2 million Israelites fled the areas targeted by katyousha rockets and the elderly and poor fresh immigrants from Ethiopia and Belarusian were left out without any government support for 33 days.

Israel used to hammer the concept that the “Arabs” do not read Israel’s newspapers; otherwise its “democratic” free press would have divulged the intentions of Israel against the Arab States.  Nowadays, it seems that the former generations in Israel failed to read the manuscripts of their Founding Fathers; if they did they would have discovered that Hertzel, Wiseman, Sassoon and others had made deals with the colonial powers of Britain and France to settle the Jews in Palestine and in return to play cops and keep the Near East States, after their independence, divided and preventing this important geo-political region from uniting.

Britain wanted to save on any tax impositions on her commerce with India and to keep the flow of goods cheap at any circumstances.  The colonial powers had this strategy from the 17th century. The USA was glad of this arrangement to keep the flow of oil at a ridiculously low price.  Israel participated in the Suez invasion of 1956 along side Britain and France to satisfy its part of the deal and because France has offered Israel its first nuclear reactor.  Israel has over 300 nuclear head bombs; why so many and for what purpose if it is not to be launched far away from its tiny borders?

If the former generations in Israel were voracious readers they would have packed and left this dangerous area long time ago. The mothers and fathers of the fallen Israeli soldiers and civilians would not have to mourn their deaths in over five offensive wars for a chimerical objective.  I think that the times have changed and only those mercenaries happy to resume their favorite hobby of soldiers and sergeants would remain in Israel within this decade. It is hoped that the new Israeli generation is reading at the sources and would not wait any longer for this masquerade of their military industrial complex to abuse of their naïve fundamental religious beliefs.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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