Posts Tagged ‘Palestinian camp of Nahr el Bared’
Another car bombing in Beirut: Immediate political finger-pointing, and scores of civilian dead and injured
Posted by: adonis49 on: October 23, 2012
Another car bombing in Beirut, another immediate political finger-pointing, and scores of civilian dead and injured
A nephew of mine called from Beirut and asked me to turn the TV on and tell him the location of the blast: It sounded close to the Justice Palace where his direction was headed to. It turned out the explosion was in Achrafieh, on the hill overlooking the Palace.
The “Urgent Flash news” on LBC claimed the blast was in Sassine Square, but there was some traffic. Then the camera showed a cloud of black fumes emanating from the right corner of the Square, and a possibility that Starbuck was targeted. And I said to myself: “That is a probable target: Starbuck has been financing Israeli colonies in Palestine…”.
The news claimed that the blast was 400 m from the headquarter of March 14 coalition, headed by the Hariri clan of Al Moustakbal, but the distance is a way far to be the target. And the news said that one of the Kataeb (Phalange) Party was 30 m away…
We were in the dark, until over an hour later, it was confirmed that the main target was Wissan Hassan, director of internal intelligence gathering. Why this delay? They recognized Wissam from his jogging shoes?
A car exlpoded in a side street in Achrafieh.
The target was not Wissam, but the institution of internal intelligence center.
The target was not Hassan, but this political climate that put forward the director as the main hero for the internal “security”, and loaded all kinds of praise on the director for any “minor” exploit, just to taunt the other political coalition…And quickly promoting him General…
The target was this symbol of a policy that says: “Lebanon is neutral in the calamities befalling on the Syrian people and the State of Syria…”
The target was selected to bring us back to the same political environment when late and ex PM Rafic Hariri was assassinated in 2005, an event that witnessed the prompt withdrawal of the Syrian troops from Lebanon after 15 years of a mandated power over Lebanon, a mandate agreed upon by the US, France and Saudi during the late Syrian dictator Hafez Assad…
The March 14 coalition (the Hariri clan Moustakbal movement), funded by Saudi Arabia and under the direct guidance of the US, immediately pointed the finger at the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad…
The March 8 coalition is accusing Israel because Wissam Hassan was given credit for dismantling several Israeli intelligence networks in Lebanon, with the coordination and cooperation of Hezbollah, and the army intelligence bureau…
It is well known in Lebanon that Wissam Hassan was in constant contact with the Syrian regime, and visited Damascus on a bi-weekly routine to coordinate security problems.
Wissam changed focus with the political winds.
In the beginning, Al Hassan was part of Rafic Hariri security team. In 2005, Najib Mikati PM appointed Wissam as head of the internal intelligence branch, and also appointed Ashraf Rifi (another of Hariri employee),director of the internal forces…
After the assassination of Rafic Hariri, Hassan was given the job of gathering intelligence pieces in order to indict Hezbollah as the executioner of the Syrian regime dirty activities and turning the investigation toward Hezbollah as the main perpetrator, and purposely not considering all the other alternative criminals such as Israel, the US and France, the radical Islamists…
Four Generals in the various internal security institutions were jailed for 4 years, with no material convicting evidences, simply on political charges and for revenge…
Lately, Hassan rounded up the former minister Michel Samaha, on charges of carrying explosives from Syria in his car…
There are information relating this assassination to a more recent event.
A month ago, three top Al Qaeda leaders from the Jund El Sham have been whisked out of Roumieh jail: They got out surreptitiously from the main gate. Internal investigations have been pointing to Wissam Hassan as the main authority in circumventing the minister of the interior. Hassan has already displaced countless witnesses in many serious charges to outside Lebanon, particularly shipping them to France, Dubai or Qatar.
Jund El Sham radical Islamist had occupied the Palestinian camp of Nahr el Bared (close to Tripoli up north) and attacked the Lebanese army. It took over 6 months for the army to re-enter the camp, scoring hundreds in casualties, and totally destroying the camp and evacuating the refugees…
France, in cooperation with German secret services, is suspected of being the main power in charge of planning the dirty operations in Lebanon and Syria, as former mandated power. As one of these dirty operations coincides with the interest of Israel, then Israel is subcontracted to carrying out the explosions and assassinations… with plenty of benefits, politically and financially…
The US has cornered itself by listing many powerful organizations as “terrorists”, and consequently, most of the CIA agents in Lebanon have been uncovered by Hezbollah and left Lebanon. The US is currently relying on Germany and France agents to feed it with intelligence pieces…
Note: The “institution” headed by late General Wissam Hassan was illegally operating and functioning outside of the Parliament legitimacy: no laws were enacted for the expansion of its tasks and personnel…
Is Lebanon political system immune to radical non-violent revolts? Black Swan theory NOT applicable? Think again!
Posted by: adonis49 on: June 3, 2011
Is Lebanon political system immune to radical non-violent revolts?
Black Swan theory NOT applicable to Lebanon? Think again!
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (see note), the mathematician who wrote “The Black Swan: The power of the unpredictable” published an article in the French weekly Le Courrier International. Nassim stated that Lebanon’s political structure, as in Italy, is immune to drastic revolts similar to those taking place in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen…
Taleb contends that since governments in Lebanon take turn representing “opposition alliances”, as in Italy, the inherent and natural fluctuations in the system instability are resolved naturally.
Taleb said that dictator regimes fall badly because the system try hard to control minor legitimate discontents, and consequently, the system is fragile when any major revolt strikes unexpectedly.
(As a reminder, Black Swan is a term coined after discovering a black swan a couple of years ago. People firmly believed that all swans were white: A few might have observed a black swan, but refused to identify it as a swan. Maybe black swans are common sight in particular regions and people had no idea that black swans are considered rarity all over the world and might be purchased for their weight in gold to be raised in zoos!)
Either Taleb is using selective memory, or he is not that familiar with Lebanon’s political structure history after staying abroad for so long. I suspect that Taleb confused catalysts with causes in the case of Lebanon, a confusion he frequently warned against in analyzing the cases of the “Arab Spring” revolts and the financial crisis.
First, since independence in 1943, Lebanon experienced two failed internal coup d’etats, one in 1949 and another in 1961, and several uprising such as in 1950, 1958, and 1974… Last week, the Moustakbal party that led an alliance which governed Lebanon since 1991, has tried a failed coup d’etat to conserve its mobile communication interests: The general director of the internal forces, General Reefy, led a force of 400 armed men and occupied the second flat in the communication ministry. The director of the communication ministry, Youssof, a stauch member of the Moustakbal of Saad Hariri PM party, participated in that stupid undertaking.
Second, Lebanon witnessed two civil wars, one in 1958 and another one in 1975 that lasted 17 years. Since the end of the civil war in 1991, Lebanon experienced a major military coup d’etat in 2008 that started in the Palestinian camp of Nahr el Bared around Tripoli: The army needed 11 months to overcome the uprising of the Islamist salafists Jund al Sham.
Beirut experienced a quick military coup in 2007 by Hezbollah, as the government attempted to control land communication lines. The war of 2006 against Israel was actually a military coup perpetrated by the Lebanese government to control Hezbollah’s military might.
Third, Italy has true political parties with programs and policies. The election laws in Italy are among the fairest and most equitable in the western States. Frequent changes in governments didn’t prevent Italy to continue being among the leading economic powers in the world. Italy is very generous in investing in the poorer nations and its grants are relied upon in most States around the Mediterranean Sea basin. Italy has many contingents in the various UN peace-keeping forces…
Whereas Lebanon is practically a Non-State country since its independence, a pseudo State by any criteria. The 18 religious sects represent the main powers by law, and they exercise de-facto political influence. Civil status of every “citizen” is run and administered by the officially recognized religious sects that own more than 50% of the land.
Every religious sect is backed by over three confessional “political parties”. The two historically secular political parties, the communist and the Syrian National Social parties, were denied participation in the Parliament via tailored-made election laws and procedures. The Syrian National Social party was recently permitted to enter the parliament, carried on the shoulders of other main confessional parties.
Fourth, Lebanon lacks sustainable public institutions and any long-term programs and policies. The only benefit the citizen enjoys is a mere passport. The are no serious governance for the people to march against and demand reforms. Was Taleb aware of the actual conditions and situation in Lebanon for him to catagorize Lebanon as falling in line within the “stable” political systems and immune to radical revolts as Italy?
The hot season has started in the northern hemisphere, and the Spring Revolt might cool off a bit. In Lebanon, we missed the spring upheavals that swept the “Arab” world, but we planted the seed of a fresh drastic non-violent revolt for the next spring season.
The youth in Lebanon organized 5 marches in various cities in Lebanon demanding change in the confessional political structure. Next Spring, the revolt will still be non-violent, but the target and purpose of the revolt will not be a matter of a reform here and another there.
The traditonal “leaders” have demonstrated that they refuse to establish a functioning State for all “citizens”: Lebanon has been run by Non-State governments, or care-taker governments.
The Movement for Change must be ready for the dawn of the next spring season: It must start doing serious due dilligence.
First, specialized teams have to dig-up and dust-off the policies and programs stored in the basements of ministries. The goal of reviewing and revising already studied programs is: “A political system from the people to the people”.
Second, the Lebanese have to feel true citizens with equal rights under the law. The Lebanese have to enjoy fair and equitable election laws that allow common people to acceed to decision-making positions.
Third, Laws have to be revised for citizens, regardless of genders, race, or religious affiliation, to have fair opportunities to all political positions and job opportunities in the public and private institutions and enterprises.
Fourth, The Constitution has to be re-written to separate religion from civil power and responsibility…
Radical changes are possible: There are no other alternatives to patching up a rotten political and social structure; it is not feasible to move on with small incremental reforms under the power of the ferocious religious and financial oligarchies that have been dominating our lives and subjugating us to constant instability and indignities.
We have grown up to be mature and responsible adult “citizens”
Note 1: Nassim Taleb, a mathematician, was a trader and worked for 20 years as consultant to large investment banks in New York and London. He created Empirica LLC for trading. He is engineering professor at the polytechnic institute at the University of New York. Taleb published “Savage hazard” and “The Black Swan: The power of the unpredictable.”
Note 2: The deposed Saad Hariri PM is a Saudi citizen first, and has been located in Saudi Arabia for the past three months, taking care of private business, and is currently established in Paris….
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