Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘planning fallacy

What’s your Worldview and how it was formed?

Worldview is not a matter of logic, rational thinking, reflection… and it is not merely a bunch of emotions, feelings, guts, heuristics, mental short cuts…

Worldview is all the above, a complex, convoluted make up of irrational positions, opinions, ready-made reactions…

Worldview is mostly the results and outcomes of emotional reactions.

Consider your willpower to be a battery: If before reacting your willpower is depleted then you have to rely on your acquired habits, talents and skills to counter your innate behaviors that were constituted through social in-group behaviors.

Your worldview is a unique model that you tailored-made throughout your life, experiences, conditions, situations… in order to survive the thousands of daily problems, frustrations and barriers.

Your worldview is constituted of all the planning you undertook, the do-it lists, the step-by-step thinking on your projects, the failed attempts and alliances.

And if you are lucky, you might realize that the “planning fallacy”  never follows the learning curve that you swear for from experience in other activities.

We are not natural-born planners. Why?

1. Wishful thinking cannot be overcome: it is part of our survival technique and strategy too.

2. We tend to overlook external influences and all those rare events that bust our well-thought out detailed plans

3. We fail to revisit the past projects and plans, those that were a success story and those that failed to materialize.

4. We miss to read the outliers in the events that intervened in the failure process and those that came handy unexpectedly.

Have you tried a pre-mortem session speech to your team?
A year from now, we are supposed to finish this project. Imagine this project turned out to be a disaster. Take 15 minutes to write about your imagined disaster”

Am I biased? What are your cognitive models?

There is an interesting story behind these questions; the effort of answering as many as you can will generate satisfaction.

We function and decide along cognitive models of what we think we know of facts and reality.

1) You had an excellent grade on one of the courses.  What is the main reason?

You are very intelligent; you studied hard; the course was pretty easy; the teacher was good in explaining the subject matter; the school environment is conducive to learning; the teaching method was appropriate to your temperament; your close community is supportive to learning.

2) You believe that your girl friend’s mental capabilities are below your mental potential.  Is it because:

She asks many detailed questions that you consider should be taken for granted; she has this habit of going frequently on tangents instead of focusing on the main subject of the conversation; she is convinced that girls’ trump card is elegance and style; she is never satisfied how she looks;  she is always one hour late for the date;  she just starts dressing up and bathing on the date schedule and thus unable to plan ahead;  she is not logical or rational in her thinking…

I don’t believe my girlfriend is less smarter than me but I don’t know why;

I have facts that my girlfriend is smarter than me.

3) You are convinced of the “evolution” theory of mankind.  Why? Because:

I read the original book of Darwin and he convinced me; I read commentaries of scientists that I value their judgement and I got convinced; I observed mechanism of evolution; I read scientific peer-reviewed studies on that topic; I am a scientist working in that field; I don’t believe in The BOOK or religious Books describing creation of mankind and species; I don’t see any other alternatives but evolution;

I don’t believe in evolution but I don’t know why;

I believe in evolution but I am not convinced.

4)  Small commercial airplanes are far more dangerous for traveling short distances (300 miles) than cars. I agree because:

the only consequences in crashes is certain death; I have no control over planes; weather conditions affect the maneuvering of airplanes far more than cars; there is a heavy density of birds at low altitudes; there is no co-pilots in small commercial planes;

I disagree.

5)  Your schoolmate closest friend had a much better grade than you on one of the courses.  What is the main reason?

Is he more intelligent than you?  He studied harder; the teacher is biased to him and favor your friend;  your friend’s parents have strong connection with the administration; he is more relaxed in the school environment; his close community is more supportive to learning.

6)  People of developing countries are evidently less smart and not endowed with mental capabilities as people in developed nations.  Because:

their brain size is smaller; they failed so far to reaching a social stage of development that is compatible with modern social standards; they are still in the tribal stage; they allow foreigners to exploit their resources; their leaders are willing to sell anything for bribes; civil wars are rampant in developing countries; political structures are unstable; democracy is lacking; Christianity is not predominant;

I disagree based on the above premises or observations but I believe the initial statesman;

The statesman is wrongly formulated and biased but it cannot be disproved;

The statement is not “politically correct” and thus it is wrong;

I have no opinion and care less;

I have facts to the contrary to the statesman.

7)  In general, women are less capable of running big businesses or holding important political positions.  The reasons are:

Women are rarely found in high positions; physical handicaps during pregnancy are not conducive to persistent work in becoming expert; women are emotionally less strong than men in critical events;  women get bogged down in details; the temperament of women is less focused on business targets;

This is wrong statement;

The question is biased in its formulation;

Women are more capable than men in running big businesses and controlling personnel.

8)  You have got a pretty lousy grade.  The main reason is:

You have no inclination for the subject matter; you had urgent problems to taking care of; the teacher lacked the vocation; the classroom is crowded; the schedule for the course didn’t match the top performance period in your circadian body cycle.

A few subjective cognitive models we use to deciding without enough facts are the following:

One:  We rely on simple heuristic strategies to avoiding complex computational judgement.  This model is called “Attribute substitution

Two:  We tend not to acknowledge our biases in judgement and think that we are better than average in feeling the correct attitude; thus, we have “Bias blind spots“.

Three:  We tend to attribute to our strong imaginative power pieces of memory that we have registered and had forgotten.  The phenomena of False memory syndrome, Recovery memory therapies through hypnosis…and plagiarism are within the category of Cryptomnesia models.

Four: We tend to extend positive outcomes as relevant to our internal capabilities and potentials while negative outcomes are attributed to external factors.  This “self-serving bias” is reversed when judging another person’s outcomes (grade results for example).

Five:  We tend to ask more money for items we own than we are willing to pay for as market value.  This “endowment effect” is related to our aversion to loss and sticking to the status quo biases.

Six: We search for bad actions and behavior of the victims based on our model of “Just-World phenomenon“.  Somehow, the victim must have been bad to get this outcome.

Seven:  “I can quit addiction at any time I decide to” is within the “Restraint bias” model and illusion of control when we will anything.

Eight:  We tend to under-estimate task duration that is unknown to us.  We use the “planning fallacy” model.

Nine: We estimate based on our most vivid memories.  This is the “Availability heuristic” cognitive model.

Ten:  We search for facts that support our hypothesis instead of the way around.  We use the “Confirmation bias” model.

Send me more questions and option answers that generate examples of our subjective cognitive models


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

December 2020
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