Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘polio

Vaccines Don’t Mean We’ll See the Last of Covid, Experts Warn

Past immunization campaigns suggest the disease may never be fully eradicated

Why this prediction that the Covid virus will never be eradicated? Because there will always be a large proportion of susceptible population in the community who are Not vaccinated..

By John Lauerman and James Paton. December 20, 2020

In record speed, vaccines are here, and more are on their way. 

Less than a year since the coronavirus began ravaging the world, the first shots are raising hopes for wiping the Covid-19 pandemic from the face of the earth.

Today’s programs in the U.S. and the U.K. are precursors to immunization campaigns intended to reach the planet’s entire population — all 8 billion people in every corner of the globe.

Is there reason for optimism? 

Vaccines are the best way to eliminate infectious disease: Smallpox has been eradicated and polio is on the brink, with just two countries where transmission persists. (How about the countries succumbing to sanctions from receiving vaccines, basic medication and basic food? Like Yemen, Libya, Syria, Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank…?)

But global vaccine campaigns take time — usually decades — suggesting that even with the latest technologies, money and power behind the unprecedented global drive to knock out Covid-19, the disease is unlikely to be eliminated any time soon.

“I would be surprised to see an actual eradication of this virus now that it’s all over the world, I’d be shocked, given how contagious it is.” said Walter Orenstein, associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center in Atlanta and former head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s immunization program. “I’d be shocked, given how contagious it is.”

Snags in supply and distribution have already arisen in the opening days of the U.S. campaign, and the U.K., the first Western country to begin immunizing, vaccinated just 138,000 people in its first week. Meanwhile, Europe has yet to start inoculations, and probably won’t do so until after Christmas.

Concerns are growing over how long it will take to immunize vast swaths of the world beyond a group of wealthy countries that have snapped up early supplies.

A global program called Covax, which aims to deploy Covid vaccines around the globe, has secured deals with developers including Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca Plc.

But some of those supplies are expected to come from an experimental inoculation from Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline Plc that’s been delayed and may not be ready until late next year.

“It’s really, really complicated to make sure we get those vaccines produced and distributed in an equitable way globally, for both moral and economic reasons,” Mark Suzman, chief executive officer of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, told reporters on a Dec. 9 call.

Suzman pointed to research showing that broad access to vaccines could deliver significant economic benefits to all countries and save many lives.

Since wealthy nations will likely have more than enough doses to vaccinate their entire populations, they should consider the reallocation of some supplies to those most in need, he said.

Smallpox Vaccination - NYC outbreak 1947
People line up for smallpox vaccinations outside a hospital in the Bronx after an outbreak in New York City in 1947.Photographer: Bettmann/Getty Images

Mass vaccination has been one of the most successful public health interventions in the world and has played an important part raising U.S. life expectancy by more than 50% over the last century.

About a third of U.S. deaths in 1900 occurred in children under age 5, many of them from diseases like smallpox, measles and whooping cough that are now preventable by immunization.

Some new vaccines have also gained quick and widespread use, like shots that prevent pneumococcal infections that can cause severe illness in children and adults. Introduction of the shingles vaccination has offered prevention of the painful disease to millions of people over the past two decades.

A veteran of the World Health Organization effort to eradicate smallpox, Orenstein would often immunize himself in front of entire villages to assuage safety fears.

The agency resolved to try to eradicate the disease in 1959 when it still afflicted many developing countries, but the effort didn’t kick into high gear until 1967 when more funds and personnel were committed by the WHO and its members.

The smallpox effort initially targeted entire populations, but that turned out to be impractical, recalled William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University infectious-disease specialist who has advised the government on vaccination. The turnaround came when the strategy switched to identifying cases and then vaccinating everyone in proximity, sometimes hundreds of households.

This approach of creating a vaccination ring around cases was only possible, however, because smallpox can be a disfiguring disease, making it easy to identify, and spreads relatively slowly.

“It has this reputation of spreading rapidly but it actually spreads rather slowly,” Schaffner said. “You also need rather close contact for transmission to occur.”

Those features allowed vaccination teams to identify patients just as they were becoming infectious and close off all opportunities for transmission. Even so, it took two decades for the worldwide effort to contain the last outbreak in 1977.

A better comparison to Covid might be polio, an intestinal virus that sometimes causes permanent, severe disease. Polio is similar to Covid in that only a minority of infected people — about one in 100 — become extremely ill.

Sabin Sunday
Children and parents line up outside the Children’s Hospital to receive polio vaccines in Cincinnati, Ohio, on April 24, 1960.Photographer: Cincinnati Museum Center/Getty Images

That’s created one of the problems anticipated in widespread Covid vaccination: People who don’t believe they’re vulnerable to the disease may not want to be vaccinated, even though it may benefit others by keeping hospital intensive-care units free and possibly preventing transmission of the disease.

An important difference with polio, however, is that it can cause severe disease in young children, leaving them with lifelong paralysis, Orenstein said. That’s unlike Covid, which mainly strikes the elderly and chronically ill. That’s left some portions of the public indifferent.

“We’re getting more than a death a minute — on some days two deaths a minute,” he said. “It’s very disturbing to see the lack of concern in other people.”

Yet even with the specter of children paralyzed from polio and a vaccine available for some 65 years, global elimination of that disease still hasn’t been reached.

Two countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan, continue to have spread because of insufficient vaccination rates,  according to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

The latest Covid updates Make sense of the headlines and the outbreak’s global response with the Coronavirus Daily.EmailBloomberg may send me offers and promotions.

To defeat Covid, “we’ve got to convince people to take the vaccine,” said Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. government infectious-disease specialist, in an interview.

If you have a highly effective vaccine and only 50% of the people take it, you’re not going to have the impact that you’d need to essentially bring a pandemic down to such a low level that it’s no longer threatening society. And that’s the goal of a vaccine, the same way we did with measles, the same way we did with polio, the same way the world did with smallpox.”

Most standard immunizations provide protection for years to decades.  We still don’t know how long Covid vaccines will last, Fauci pointed out.

And it isn’t clear whether they prevent transmission along with protection against symptoms, although studies may soon shed light on that.

The logistics and supply-chain challenge the world faces today is “more complicated than usual because for the first time in history we’ll be introducing multiple vaccines against the same target at the same time,Rajeev Venkayya, president of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co.’s vaccines business, said in an interview.

That means countries will need databases to track the rollout and ensure people are getting the doses at the right times, as well as systems to monitor potential side effects and share the information with the public, he said.

Early on, countries plan to prioritize the most vulnerable people as well as health-care workers and other critical staff, which will reduce deaths and suffering considerably, said Venkayya, former special assistant for biodefense to U.S. President George W. Bush.

“But transmission won’t go down dramatically in the beginning. It’s going to take time to get to a sufficient level of vaccine-driven population immunity before we begin to dampen transmission.”

Potentially by the middle of next year countries such as the U.K. and U.S. will be able to see a “real dampening of transmission,” he said. “That timeline is going to be delayed in many other parts of the world that don’t have this kind of early access to vaccines.”

Unvaccinated populations always threaten to reintroduce disease into areas where herd immunity appears to have taken over.

Just last year, the annual number of worldwide, reported measles case rose more than six-fold to about 870,000, the most since 1996, as immunization rates flagged. 

The world is likely to see the same level of viral persistence from the coronavirus, said Klaus Stohr, a former Novartis AG vaccine executive and WHO official who championed efforts to prepare for pandemics.

“The prediction is pretty clear: The virus will never be eradicated. Why? Because there will always be a large proportion of susceptible population in the community.” said Klaus Stohr

— With assistance by Jason Gale

https://buy.tinypass.com/checkout/template/show?displayMode=inline&containerSelector=.transporter-item.current+.softwall%5Bdata-position%3D%274%27%5D&templateId=OTVTICPH3V8Z&offerId=fakeOfferId&showCloseButton=false&trackingId=%7Bjcx%7DH4sIAAAAAAAAAI2Q0U_CMBDG_5c-U9K13dbxhgoywEgUh_JWumNURje7DkiM_7vbIhoTH7yXy93vvi-57x1JnaIBiifjm2ocGztFPVTKDBINp7gllFCCPYqphz2OicCEN6PAq2JqrdzIxR1T8cgyzLY8oBFEAH7Iw1DxME0DKiXwcKvSrWyM4VyC1WAUdNaj52h2Nb0l8yga_6KjM6ja6cJ0Z54gIX8rSLXHpCnq9n6gxKuyLFObQEvqsUL90g_Vt7jaFaclHMpcOpi9RMFjuF7Fi4c59RvFTlYXhgbO1tBD7mvuxPfLZBlfLyYsEWv0wxJptTSuPTF1nveQkodS6sxUl8VRV7rj6Ij_DNBn-Kk-FNSw0Ozn_FDt4D8B6rLNgwd9T_h91jS_faOuwA4zMK6BaReFczkaeAERARNC-B-fNNmROucBAAA&experienceId=EX9KBJG0L99F&tbc=%7Bjzx%7Dt_3qvTkEkvt3AGEeiiNNgLScsJ7tkdNlsQLQ8XhqxcxydNWD5a_4dLb6jMTVQFjxxWcf9MrPneOPTL8kpX-E0yMSene3-kcl4G_pl3xTCxcB6KvsD1j50n0HGtHDN7McjylU0Z664w9lha1BgkmqDg&iframeId=offer-0-D14em&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2020-12-20%2Fvaccines-don-t-mean-we-ll-see-the-last-of-covid-experts-warn%3Fcmpid%3Dsocialflow-facebook-business%26utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_campaign%3Dsocialflow-organic%26utm_content%3Dbusiness%26fbclid%3DIwAR3ofRi2hJ0dndMmVu2V9WzANVdsIZninTny2rc8LW7AI4Eos_Hw8m6FlZA&parentDualScreenLeft=14&parentDualScreenTop=10&parentWidth=1303&parentHeight=613&parentOuterHeight=692&aid=IHFDsFInrJ&contentSection=content-article&pageViewId=2020-12-21-14-08-04-128-WoJrrabaPM3cIEr3-3f4629e9ee57477c47dd62aae47fcdfa&visitId=v-2020-12-21-14-08-04-153-Uumo2n37nkL4mshe-3f4629e9ee57477c47dd62aae47fcdfa&userProvider=publisher_user_ref&userToken=&customCookies=%7B%7D&hasLoginRequiredCallback=false&width=620&_qh=26713e2063https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-dash/

Am I writing to enjoy reading?

And “How I learned to read” by Agnes Desarthe

The initial process of a toddler to crying, weeping, throwing tantrum and shouting monosyllables… is meant to attract attention in order to relay a disenchantment, a complaint, a doleance, a grievance….

As the toddler learns a few words, the set of crying becomes a boring method to the kid and the people around: no one is paying attention or responses are no longer that fast and empathizing…

Mother tells me that when I was about 5 year-old, I used to cry my heart out, hiding under the bed, as I heard my parents and grown ups deciding to go to a movie, and I being excluded.  Occasionally, they had to cancel their projects. Mother tells me that my crying was not of the wet kind.

Once, in an open-air movie “theater” in Africa, I saw an airplane flying in the film, and I wanted the airplane. I kept pointing my finger toward the airplane, and never desisted till they dragged me out of the theater.

It is a fluke of the living that I survived in Africa: There was no inoculation and vaccination of any diseases at the time, and didn’t catch any until I lived in Lebanon. Mother tells me that she carried me to visit a relative of father in Sikasso (Mali), and the physician met her at the door and summoned her to take me back home: The daughter of the relative had just suffered polio

Have you ever heard a kid saying: “I am happy, satisfied, contended…?”

Most probably you heard the kid shouting: “I am hungry, thirsty, angry…”  The kid learned to talk in order to express his grievances and doleances.

The range of grievances in quality and a quantity increases with mastering the language.

All those invented new jargons by gang youth are symptoms of their inability to articulate their new grievances and sorrows to a community that does not share their life-styles

We learn to speak so that we can transmit our grievances in the language that a community understand, otherwise, our expressions turn physically violent due to our impotency to express ourselves “civilly”.

And writing is the best means of expressing our list of doleances, as we feel a lack of quick verbal intelligence for effective communication of our miseries, or inability to associate with people and feel comfortable in gathering…

Writing becomes a means to enjoy reading, and reading more seriously and assiduously: How else can we communicate intelligently our emotions and grievances through words?

I am certain that I would enjoy fuller the previous books that I read.

It is by the writing process that I started to comprehend the emotional reality, and appreciate the emotional world in the books.

Writing was my best means to bypass the world of rational thinking and discovering the wide set of emotional intelligence.

In my case, I read a lot since I was 12 and for 4 decades, until I began to write anything outside school homework.

I guess that I was too dumb socially, shy and inarticulate to feel comfortable discussing anything in gatherings.

And I was inarticulate for lack of exercising articulation due to tacit feeling of not having reasonable cause for valid complaints: I felt neutral and had no inclination to get engaged in any activity or project…

I must have been shoving under the rug of my consciousness all the unsuspected emotional discrepancies and grievances.

The perception by others of being arrogant in my silence and mutism, as if I knew more than the assembly and refused to share what I knew or felt, isolate me even further from being invited…

Actually, my mutism reflected my ignorance of what was going on in relationships among the group, and I could not participate in the conversation…

Where to start with the zillion of questions that are needed in order to untangle the web of relationships and interrelationship, and to begin the fitting process of engaging and appreciating the concerns of people around me?

It’s a daunting task if you lack conscious emotional intelligence and are unable to believe that all the expressed emotions are real and genuine…

Writing got me engaged in becoming an accomplice and a collaborator to authors I like.

I agree with the saying: “If you are interested in a topic, write about it…” It doesn’t lend to saying that what you wrote is correct: good or bad, at least you reached a position on the topic. 

Most probably, since you were interested in a topic, you must have read about it, and the more you write, the more you read on the topic. It is a refreshing feeling to feel that you nailed down one of the zillion of mysteries…

I realized that before writing I barely seriously asked “Why” of anything and tried to resolve it.

As for the “How”, your best bet is to “doing it”. The more bruises and injuries you suffer “doing it”, the more you appreciate the value of the “How”

Note: May I suggest to have a notebook and a pen handy when you read a book? You will realize that you are communicating much better with the book and yourself as you take notes of what impresses your emotions and imagination… And the environment of reading acquires a festive feeling and joy. And if you got the habit of writing, you’ll write a couple of articles just by reading and perusing a few book strewn around you…

How living organisms were created?

From “A short history of nearly everything” by Bill Bryson

When it was created, Earth had no oxygen in its environment.

Cyanobacteria or algae break down water by absorbing the hydrogen and release the oxygen waste,which is actually a very toxic element to every anaerobic organism.

Our white blood cells actually use oxygen to kill invading bacteria.  This process of releasing oxygen is called photosynthesis, undoubtedly the most important single metabolic innovation in the history of life on the planet.

It took two billion years for our environment to accumulate 20% of oxygen, since oxygen was absorbed to oxidize every conceivable mineral on Earth, rust the mineral, and sink it in the bottom of oceans.

Life started when special bacteria used oxygen to summon up enough energy to work and photosynthesize.

Mitochondria, tiny organism, manipulates oxygen in a way that liberates energy from foodstuffs . They are very hungry organisms that a billion of them are packed in a grain of sand.

Mitochondria maintain their own DNA, RNA, and ribosome and behave as if they think things might not work out between us.

They look like bacteria, divide like bacteria and sometimes respond to antibiotics in the same way bacteria do; they live in cells but do not speak the same genetic language.

The truly nucleated cells are called eukaryotes and we ended up with two kinds of them: those that expel oxygen, like plants, and those that take in oxygen, like us.

Single-celled eukaryote contains 400 million bits of genetic information in its DNA, enough to fill 80 books of 500 pages.  It took a billion years for eukaryotes to learn to assemble into complex multi-cellular beings.

Microbes or bacteria form an intrinsic unit with our body and our survival.  They are in the trillions, grazing on our fleshy plains and breaking down our foodstuff and our waste into useful elements for our survival.

They synthesize vitamins in our guts, convert food into sugar and polysaccharides and go to war on alien microbes; they pluck nitrogen from the air and convert it into useful nucleotides and amino acids for us, a process that is extremely difficult to manufacture industrially.

Microbes continue to regenerate the air that we breathe with oxygen.  Microbes are very prolific and can split and generate 280 billion offspring within a day.

In every million divisions, a microbe may produce a mutant with a slight characteristic that can resist antibodies.

The most troubling is that microbes are endowed with the ability to evolve rapidly and acquire the genes of the mutants and become a single invincible super-organism; any adaptive change that occurs in one area of the bacterial province can spread to any other.

Microbes are generally harmless unless, by accident, they move from a specialized location in the body to another location such as the blood stream, for example, or are attacked by viruses, or our white blood cells go on a rampage.

Microbes can live almost anywhere; some were found in nuclear power generators feeding on uranium, some in the deep seas, some in sulfuric environment, some in extreme climate, and some can survive in enclosed bottles for hundred of years, as long as there is anything to feed on.

Viruses or phages can infect bacteria. A virus are not alive, they are nucleic acid, inert and harmless in isolation and visible by the electron microscope. Viruses barely have ten genes; even the smallest bacteria require several thousand genes..  But introduce them into a suitable host and they burst into life.

Viruses prosper by hijacking the genetic material of a living cell and reproduce in a fanatical manner.  About 5,000 types of virus are known and they afflict us with the flu, smallpox, rabies, yellow fever, Ebola, polio and AIDS.

Viruses burst upon the world in some new and startling form and then vanish as quickly as they came after killing millions of individuals in a short period.

There are billions of species. Tropical rainforests that represent only 6% of the Earth surface harbor more than half of its animal life and two third of its flowering plants.

A quarter of all prescribed medicines are derived from just 40 plants and 16% coming from microbes.

The discovery of new flowery plants might provide humanity with chemical compounds that have passed the “ultimate screening program” over billions of years of evolution.

The tenth of the weight of a six year-old pillow is made up of mites, living or dead, and mite dung; washing at low temperature just get the lice cleaner!

“A short history of nearly everything” by Bill Bryson, (part 2)

How living organisms were created?

 Earth had no oxygen in its environment when it was created.  Cyanobacteria or algae break down water by absorbing the hydrogen and released the oxygen waste which is actually a very toxic element to every anaerobic organism; our white blood cells actually use oxygen to kill invading bacteria.  This process of releasing oxygen is called photosynthesis, undoubtedly the most important single metabolic innovation in the history of life on the planet. 

It took two billion years for our environment to accumulate 20% of oxygen because oxygen was absorbed to oxidize every conceivable mineral on Earth and rust it and sink it in the bottom of oceans. 

Life started when special bacteria used oxygen to summon up enough energy to work and photosynthesize. Mitochondria manipulate oxygen in a way that liberates energy from foodstuffs and they are very hungry tiny organisms that a billion of them are packed in a grain of sand.  Mitochondria maintain their own DNA, RNA and ribosome and behave as if they think things might not work out between us.  They look like bacteria, divide like bacteria and sometimes respond to antibiotics in the same way bacteria do; they live in cells but do not speak the same genetic language.  

The truly nucleated cells are called eukaryotes and we ended up with two kinds of them: those that expel oxygen, like plants, and those that take in oxygen, like us.  Single-celled eukaryote contains 400 million bits of genetic information in its DNA, enough to fill 80 books of 500 pages.  It took a billion years for eukaryotes to learn to assemble into complex multi-cellular beings.

Microbes or bacteria form an intrinsic unit with our body and our survival.  They are in the trillions grazing on our fleshy plains and breaking down our foodstuff and our waste into useful elements for our survival; they synthesize vitamins in our guts, convert food into sugar and polysaccharides and go to war on alien microbes; they pluck nitrogen from the air and convert it into useful nucleotides and amino acids for us, a process that is extremely difficult to manufacture industrially. 

Microbes continue to regenerate the air that we breathe with oxygen.  Microbes are very prolific and can split and generate 280 billion offspring within a day; once every million divisions they produce a mutant with a slight characteristic that can resist antibodies.  The most troubling is that microbes are endowed with the ability to evolve rapidly and acquire the genes of the mutants and become a single invincible super-organism; any adaptive change that occurs in one area of the bacterial province can spread to any other. 

Microbes are generally harmless unless, by accident, they move from a specialized location in the body to another location such as the blood stream, for example, or are attacked by viruses, or our white blood cells go on a rampage.  Microbes can live almost anywhere; some were found in nuclear power generators feeding on uranium, some in the deep seas, some in sulfuric environment, some in extreme climate, and some can survive in enclosed bottles for hundred of years as long as there is anything to feed on.

Viruses or phages can infect bacteria. A virus are not alive, they are nucleic acid, inert and harmless in isolation and visible by the electron microscope; it barely have ten genes; even the smallest bacteria require several thousand genes..  But introduce them into a suitable host and they burst into life.

Viruses prosper by hijacking the genetic material of a living cell and reproduce in a fanatical manner.  About 5,000 types of virus are known and they afflict us with the flu, smallpox, rabies, yellow fever, Ebola, polio and AIDS.  Viruses burst upon the world in some new and startling form and then vanish as quickly as they came after killing millions of individuals in a short period.

There are billions of species and tropical rainforests that represent only 6% of the Earth surface harbor more than half of its animal life and two third of its flowering plants. A quarter of all prescribed medicines are derived from just 40 plants and 16% coming from microbes.  The discovery of new flowery plants might provide humanity with chemical compounds that have passed the “ultimate screening program” over billions of years of evolution.

The tenth of the weight of a six years pillow is made up of mites, living or dead, and mite dung; low temperature washing just get the lice cleaner!

 Water is everywhere. A potato is 80% water, a cow 74%, a bacterium 75%, a tomato at 95%, and human 65%.  Most liquid when chilled contract 10% but water only 1%, but just before freezing it expands.  When solid water is 10% more voluminous, an utterly bizarre property which allow ice to float, otherwise ice would sink and oceans would freeze from the bottom. 

Without surface ice to hold heat in, the water warmth would radiate away and thus creating more ice and soon oceans would freeze.  Water is defying the rules of chemistry and law of physics.  The hydrogen atoms cling fiercely to their oxygen host, but also make casual bonds with other water molecules, thus changing partners billions of times a second and thus, water molecules stick together and can be siphoned without breaking but not so tightly so that you may dive into a pool.  Surface water molecules are attracted more powerfully to the like molecule beneath and beside them than to the air molecule above so that it creates a sort of membrane that supports insects.

All but the smallest fraction of the water on Earth is poisonous to us because of the salts within it.  Uncannily, the proportions of the various salts in our body are similar to those in sea water; we cry sea water, and we sweat sea water but we cannot tolerate sea water as an input! Salt in the body provoke a crisis because from every cell, water molecules rush off to dilute and carry off the sudden intake of salt.  The oceans have achieved their present volume of 1.3 billion cubic kilometer of water and it is a closed system. 

The Pacific holds 52% of the 97% of all the water on Earth.  The remaining 3% of fresh water exist as ice sheet; Antarctica holds 90% of the planet’s ice, standing on over 2 miles of ice.  If Antarctica is to completely melt the ocean would rise about 70 meters.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

March 2021
M T W T F S S
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031  

Blog Stats

  • 1,462,247 hits

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.adonisbouh@gmail.com

Join 803 other followers

%d bloggers like this: