Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Ponzi scheme

Multiple crisis in Lebanon: Afterward of the mass upheaval

A country in such a multiple crisis is no longer a country at all: It’s a collection of futile individuals, considering themselves bigger than institutions, acting like cynical clowns on TV shows, each of whom is looking for personal cover and passing the buck from one to the other.

Few saw the warning signs and now we are in the middle of the tragedy.

The few coming months will be very complicated but what about the afterward of the few coming months, what about the post-disaster era?

If we don’t reimagine another future, if we don’t rethink the meaning of economic, political, ecological, financial and social practices in the wake of the crisis and beyond,

if we don’t reconsider existing values and endorse new ones,

if we don’t agree together and look to implement a new project for Lebanon, i

f we don’t unite (against the sectarian “leaders” and the Ponzi scheme financial system), then we will be doomed to relive the pre-mass upheaval (7iraal) situation.

Can’t go on with business as usual, this pre-disaster with the ones who fabricated the disaster, taking advantage of it and privatizing whole swathes of activities of general interest in an extremely brutalized and impoverished society at bargain prices.

Another economy is possible, another democracy is possible, another social contract is possible,

Another “vivre-ensemble” is possible, another leadership is possible, another governance is possible, and alternative values must be endorsed.

The value of life over the value of money; the citizenship over clientelism; the sovereignty of the state over the joint-violence of illegal arms and money;

The ethical banking over bank predation; the rights of depositors over the profitability of banks;

the responsible regulation by governments over the non-rule short-term financial speculation, led by greed rather than long-term profit-making, that took the overall Lebanese economy to the brink of catastrophe.

Meanwhile, an independent crisis management team is needed to damage control and we must go on with the revolt.

The process that guided Lebanon into this Ponzi scheme system

Work in Progress : Illusion bancaire

Comment le Liban s’est-il mis dans ce pétrin ?

La réponse est simple : lentement d’abord puis d’un seul coup.

Une révolte fiscale des contribuables contre une taxe WhatsApp imbécile fut l’étincelle qui a enclenché le processus de confiscation de l’épargne des déposants.

Sauf qu’ici les contribuables et les déposants sont les mêmes, les dépôts servent de gages au paiement des impôts. Entre les deux, une banque intrinsèquement insolvable qui jette l’argent dans un trou sans fond qu’on appelle l’État.

La banque transforme les dépôts en actifs pourris de l’Etat parce que c’est un placement sans risque et qui est extrêmement rentable, car on croit que l’Etat ne peut pas faire faillite.

C’est un tour de magie époustouflant : Les profits réels des illusionnistes sont mis en sécurité à l’étranger tandis que l’argent de tous les autres et prisonnier dans des comptes virtuels et risque de disparaitre à tout moment.

JUST AN ILLUSION

Mais pas de panique, n’instrumentaliser pas la peur, la peur c’est du domaine exclusif de la force publique, rassurez-vous, tout va bien se passer, tout va bien se passer pour les banques, tout bien se passer pour les politiciens, mais pour tous les autres, c’est un marché de dupes où les dupés sont connus d’avance.

C’est le monde à l’envers où l’argent de la corruption circule librement à travers les frontières alors que les comptes des épargnants sont gelés, où on croit que la destruction de l’économie réelle va permettre de sauver les banques, où ce sont les banques qui financent la banque centrale et non pas l’inverse.

66 jours déjà, chaque jour on avance un peu plus dans la zone de non-retour. 66 jours et le spectacle continue.

Il est loin le temps où un Premier ministre démissionnaire s’engageait sérieusement dans une feuille de réformes sérieuse à réduire les impôts et à augmenter les dépenses pour arriver à un budget en équilibre.

Depuis ce moment, on est passé par toutes les phases, le déni, la confusion dans laquelle le pouvoir se révoltait contre sa propre incapacité à exercer le pouvoir, le chantage pour arriver à la confrontation, à la violence des armes qui se joint à la violence de l’absence d’argent.

SHOW MUST GO ON
Dans ce spectacle, ceux qui percent sont ceux qui poussent leur personnage jusqu’à la caricature, place au technocrate fait maison dont le CV est un recueil d’exploits plus épais que l’histoire du Liban.

Reste la question principale : qui va payer le prix de ce casse ?

La réponse à cette question va au-delà des chiffres, de la manipulation des chiffres, des slogans creux et des noms des candidats ministrables.

Elle concerne un choix fondamental que nous devons prendre, au niveau personnel et collectivement, celui du choix de la société dans laquelle nous voulons vivre et du pouvoir qui en est l’émanation, c’est une question de priorités, de valeurs, de vision, c’est une question qui touche nos propres limites, jusqu’à où sommes-nous capables d’aller ?

Sommes-nous capables de transformer la colère en un projet de société et l’incarner dans un mouvement politique antisystème ? Ce qu’on acceptera aujourd’hui va décider de ce que nous serons demain.

Tidbits and notes. Part 435

The ancient city-state of Athens could Not swallow the concept of free expressions in public. Athens political structure was mainly controlled by the oligarchy and the rich conservatives. And the famous “philosophers” like Socrates, Anaxagoras and Protagoras charged extravagant stipends from all these adventurer aristocrats, seeking political status through fomenting successive wars to keep the empire cowed and the subjugated city-sates paying their due taxes. All these “philosophers” ended up exiled or punished with death for their ideas.

“Moi, je denonce les idees des autres ignorants. Le chien a une ame: il peut distinguer les humains amicaux et ceux hostillent a son existence” Diogene

Every period has its main litmus test of patriotism and progressive positions, especially for public figures of intellectuals and politicians. “What is your stand on the Palestinian cause” was the main litmus test for decades. It has come back after Trump pronouncement on Jerusalem

If Hezbollah support to reconvene Saad Hariri as PM, then my suspicion will increase that Hezbollah is in acute economic and financial difficulties: this party would be ready to enjoy the Haririyat’s Ponzi scheme for a while longer. To gain time? But Lebanon is set for a long and harsh period. The sooner we get out of our fantasies the better society will come to term with the reality of our defective policies.

I learned that the tent in 3azariyyi was discussing the feasibility of finding a peace treaty with Israel “tatbee3 ma3 Israel“. Is that a timely purpose of the mass upheaval (7iraak)? Stick to the fundamental emergencies and don’t meddle in foreign policies right now.

A week before the mass upheaval (al 7iraak) started in October 17, Jobran Basil (Lebanon foreign minister and leader of Tayyar )declared that turning the table on our defunct political and economic system could become an inevitable outcome. Question: If the President was the first in delivering his speech before Saad PM, the next day of the 7iraak, and told us the economic plan is to be changed to a productive system and opening the trade borders with Syria and Iraq, how this 7iraak would have unfolded?

A US federal judge blocked a Los Angeles law requiring businesses seeking city contracts to disclose any ties to the NRA.

The donations to the Vatican: Uses about 90% of the funds on its administrative budget.

EU is the first economic power in the world and the UK wants out?

Most hotel chains don’t own their  properties, but rather provides capital and training to hotel owners who re-brand to its specs. It then takes a portion of their revenue. Agarwal’s company in India is valued at $10 billion, surpassing Marriott by room count.

In a world where media is global, social, ubiquitous and cheap, in a world of media where the former audience are now increasingly full participants, in that world, media is less and less often about crafting a single message to be consumed by individuals. It is more and more often a way of creating an environment for convening and supporting groups.

1993: Internet pioneer Rick Gates suggests that a free, open-source encyclopedia could exist on the internet (he called it “Interpedia”).

How the Lebanese are feeling in their daily life, since the upheaval started on October 17?

Personally, I don’t see how Lebanon will undergo a productive change in its economic unless a full political engagement with Syria is resolved. Syria is our only trade route outside our borders and it is through Syria that we can trade with the promising Iraqi market.

And then our business laws must be modernized and facilitated by eliminating many red tapes used by our militia/mafia “leaders” who controlled our political system since 1992 and heaped on Lebanon a State Ponzi scheme for 3 decades.

الوضع الاقتصادي الى أين :

بتمشي بشوارع المدن والقرى بتشوف كل الناس معصبة ومضايقة وعيونن حزينة جدا وكل تفاعلن العملي عم يكون فيه الكثير من اليأس..

كل الناس عم تحكي نفس اللغة ونفس الأسلوب .. بتفوت عالمصارف بتشوف جوا موظف منو مسؤول ولا الو علاقة بقرارات الإدارة عم يتعرض للإهانات من مودع لأنو بدو مصاري …

التجار مخروب بيتها وما قادرة تستمر ، الموظفين مخروب بيتن بسبب فرق الدولار وأكثر الموظفين بالقطاع الخاص ما عم يقبضو اكثر من نصف راتب اللي يمكن ما بكفيهن بنزين وتلفونات واشياء بسيطة …

شو اللي عم يصير ؟ هون هوي السؤال …
هل حقيقة البلد انتهى والمصارف رايحة عالافلاس ؟؟
هل حقيقة نحنا بطل عنا ولا حل ؟

قراءاتي بالموضوع الاقتصادي بتقول انو لا … في مشكلة كبيرة اكيد بس مش لدرجة انو البلد رايح عالافلاس والمصارف ما معها أموال المودعين ومع احترامي الشديد لبعض العم يقولو هيك بس ما بعتقد اتطلعوا بشكل جيد عالحقيقة..

١- أموال المصارف موجود بنسبة كبيرة سيولة وفي جزء موجود بالاستثمارات بلبنان وخارجو.
٢- في ناس عم تقارن مع بنك انترا بالثمانينات والحقيقة انو بنك انترا كان في قرار سياسي بإفلاسو وللعلم انو بنك انترا كان يفتح ٢٤ ساعة باليوم وكان يسحب العميل كل اللي بدو ياه وهيدا جزء من اللي ساعد يضربو للبنك وللعلم انو بنك انترا لحد اليوم بعد عندو كتير املاك بلبنان وخارج لبنان…
٣- لبنان مركز تجاري ومخابراتي لكتير من دول العالم وما حدا منهن الو مصلحة انو لبنان ينهار .. يمكن ألن مصلحة انو يخنقو تا يحققو مكاسب بس مش يقتلو …

٤- مصرف لبنان وهندساتو المالية عملت مشاكل كتير وكرمال هيك إذا انتبهنا مصرف لبنان عم يجبر المصارف انها تخفض فوائدها حتى تشجع الاستثمار بشكل مباشر للمودعين وخاصة انو الحركة رح تكون بنكية داخلية مش كاش وهيدا الشي لمصلحة البلد ولمصلحة الاقتصاد بتشغيل يد عاملة وتحقيق أرباح منطقية.

٥- فرنسا وروسيا وبعض الدول الأخرى رفضت رفض قطعي انهيار الاقتصاد اللبناني.
٦- ما ننسى انو صار عنا غاز وهيدا الشي صح عملنا مشاكل بمكان ما للدول اللي الها مصالح وبدها تسيطر عا هيدا القطاع بس كمان بنفس الوقت هيدا بيمنع التدهور الاقتصادي من جهة ثانية وخاصة إذا كان في إدارة سياسية صح بهيدي المرحلة.

٧- مجرد وجود حكومة بالمرحلة القادمة هيدا رح يكون عامل ثقة للداخل وللخارج ورح نشوف استقرار اقتصادي بعد فترة مش كتير طويلة بغض النظر عن شكل الحكومة او مين رئيسها مع انو وجود الرئيس الحريري بشكل ضمانة أقوى خارجيًا .

الانتفاضة كل اللي عملتو من اول ما بلشنا لليوم ما خصها بالوضع الحاصل هيي يمكن سرعت المشكلة شوي بس هيي مش سبب فيها .

ورب ضارة نافعة. وانا رأيي انو التركيز الإعلامي على انو البلد منهار ورايح للمجاعة وغير هيك مقصود، وفي من وراه اهداف سياسية.

بالنتيجة انا ما عم قول ما في مشكلة ولا عم قول انو الوضع تمام بس عم قول انو الوضع مش بالخطورة اللي البعض بيحكي فيها. انا ما دخلت هون بلعبة الأرقام لأنو ما في حدا عندو شي رسمي وكل الأرقام اللي بتسمعوها هيي تحليل او ارقام وهمية .
ا

لمرحلة القادمة حساسة وضاغطة بس ما في انهيار ولا رح يصير … هيدا لبنان حبيب الكل يا اصدقاء والكل ألن مصالح فيه عا جميع المستويات…
الحل الحقيقي لبعدين : اقتصاد منتج مع الاقتصاد الريعي وتجربة تركيا لازم كتير نستفيد منها.
اكيد واكيد وقف الهدر والفساد واستعادة الأموال المنهوبة واستقلالية القضاء وغيرن ….

Repercussions of Lebanon financial and economic crisis: for how long we will suffer?

The author stated that Lebanon financial and economic crisis started in 2017, and I submit that it was known by the government since 2015.

This militia/mafia “leaders” establishment acted as if this crisis will go away and the Ponzi scheme can be maintained a while longer in order to rob the budget thoroughly and extend the number of their monopolies to every consumer goods, financial transactions, services and energy…

By 2019, and with the shrinking of jobs in the Arab Emirates and the difficulty of locating jobs in Europe and the USA, the Lebanese graduates were stuck in Lebanon: over 45% were left without any jobs or a open horizon. Actually, this anomie political structure relied heavily on the university graduate to always find a job overseas and keep transferring money to their parents.

The author is predicting the crisis will last for 2 years. That is an optimistic forecast that nothing material has so far been exhibited that the system is ripe and ready to undergo a drastic change in decisions and behavior.

It is to be noted that the Lebanese currency (linked to the dollars) was already overvalued since 2015 and many financial “engineering” by the Central Bank were made to keep the LL at 1505.

كيف ستؤثر الأزمة الاقتصادية على كل لبناني ؟

د. باسم حسان البواب

لقد بدأ اللبنانيون يشعرون بالضائقة الاقتصادية منذ عدة سنوات ولكن بوتيرة خفيفة جدا . اما الان بقد بدأ 
انهيار الاقتصاد الذي حذرت منه منذ عام ٢٠١٧.
ماذا سيحدث بالتفاصيل ، وكيف سيؤثر ذلك على كل فرد في المجتمع اللبناني باختصار شديد:

١- انهيار الليرة اللبنانية ٢٠٠٠-٢٥٠٠ أو اكثر .
٢- انهيار القوة الشرائية لدى المواطنين بنسبة لا تقل عن ٣٠٪؜.
٣-نسب بطالة غير مسبوقة قد تصل الى ٤٠ ٪؜ اي اكثر من ٥٠٠٠٠٠ لبناني عاطل عن العمل .

٤- زيادة كبيرة في الأسعار ومعدل تضخم لا سابق له يلامس ال٢٥ ٪؜
٥-افلاس واقفال عدة محلات ومؤسسات وشركات وصرف جماعي .
٦-عدم قدرة الدائنين على تسديد السندات المستحقة عليهم وإعادة جدولتها في المصارف.

٧-فقدان السيولة بالعملات الأجنبية كافة .
٨-انخفاض معدلات الفوائد بشكل جزري على الودائع وبنسبة اقل على القروض .

٩-الاضطرار الى الاستغناء عن عدة كماليات والصرف فقط على ضروريات الحياة .
١٠-هجرة كبيرة من اللبنانيين الى دول العالم للبحث عن الرزق.

هذه الأزمة سوف تكون مدتها ما بين ٦ اشهر في أفضل الأحوال الى ٢٤ شهرًا في أسوأ الأحوال لان الاقتصاد يستطيع تصحيح نفسه عاجلا أم آجلا

ولكن المهم هي الكلفة والخسارة التي سيتحملها الشعب اللبناني والتي ستتحول ان طالت ، من أزمة اقتصادية ومالية ونقدية الى أزمة اجتماعية وأمنية

Where Lebanon from here? Structural political change is obvious. What intermediary reforms?

Lebanon is a very tiny State (about 10,000 sq. km) with a reduced population of less than 5 million and 19 officially religious sects  having the sole monopoly of individual registry.

With the creation of the State of Israel in 1948 (by a majority of a single vote in the UN), Lebanon has but a single land trade route to the rest of the world through Syria.

Since the creation of Israel (our existential enemy) daily trade and communication of our people have been blocked.

Unless political close relationship is established with Syria, there is no possibility to encourage the productive sectors in industry and agriculture or even in financial sectors.

The current financial fiasco in Lebanon has proven the tight interaction between Syria currency and Lebanon overvalued currency (linked to the dollar since 1994).

The impact of Lebanon tenuous currency has directly affected the currency of Syria since most of their entrepreneurs deal with Lebanese banks for their imports.

Our highway robbers of militia/mafia “leaders” are controlled by their Godfather:

  1. Nabih Berry has been chairman of the Parliament since 1994 without discontinuity. He is every-time elected by the entire deputies, give or take a couple of deputy. The reason for this is that Nabih has supported every deputy to acquire a monopoly of a consume good, energy, financial transaction, services… Berry has transformed our Ponzi scheme system into an anomy system.
  2. Nabih Berry considers himself the sole interpreter of the Constitution, although we have no idea which constitution is to guide us: the initial constitution of 1943 or the constitution of the Taef ( Saudi Kingdom) in 1992
  3. Actually, the Constitution is basically scarecrow that nobody abide by and is repeatedly baffled on the basis of urgent trade-off among the sectarian parties. We do have officially 19 religious sects, each one maintaining the citizens’ private registry.
  4. What Berry and most of the deputies elected by the sectarian parties and enjoying astronomical privileges is to wipe out, by a general amnesty, all their highway robberies during the last 30 years, and escape facing justice. The mechanism is to create special Courts elected by the parliament deputies itself.
  5. As long as Berry is still in power, Lebanon will never experience any reforms or any kind of change in its political system

I denounce. J’accuse. Lebanon mass upheaval

Note: I believe this piece was written in French and the translation is to be desired. I did my best to edit the English version

I blame
I blame the political class of plundering the country
I blame the banks for funding the country’s plundering
I accuse the banks of using Lebanese savings to finance a state they knew was unable to pay off its debts

A State that needs to be more in debt to pay the amount of the principal due and interest (Ponzi scheme)

I blame the banks, the Central Bank and the political class of complicity in the last 3 decades
A complicity that is at the source of legalized corruption of the system (an anomie system where every deputy was accorded a monopoly)

Engineered Election laws, financial engineering, budget engineering
A complicity that is the cause of disaster
A complicity that is at the source of manipulation of numbers, financial and statistics

And all crimes committed in the name of maintaining civil peace and false growth fed by debt

A complicity that is at the base of the revolution
Militia/mafia “leaders” who used the revolution as an excuse to take the sorrel and get out:
They felt to their bones that their system is coming to an end
That they can no longer continue, as much as to blur the slopes, feed chaos, turn blind eyes.

What are your claims, what is your project, who are your representatives?
Meanwhile we continue to raid, make lots of money in blunt highway robberies of the budgets:

Manipulation of differences in exchange rates, money transfers by commission at 20 %, scammers…

Socialize the losses and reap the profit of falling apart private enterprises and monopolies
A country does not go bankrupt, it is the citizens who suffers and starve

I blame the banks of confiscating citizen’s savings as a guarantee for the refund of state debt (mainly the high interests  rate of the sovereign debt) and paying the civil servants (many who have no work to do at their institution and don’t show up)

And direct tax that is not enough to pay the debts of the state (the government mainly rely on the multiple indirect taxes for every facility the state was suppose to extend to citizens)
I blame the political class and the banks of keeping the applicants hostage in order to negotiate a new deal
At the expense of state assets, a real guarantee instead of bank deposit

Ancient assets taken by political class and banks (seafront, garbage sites, quarries…)
And new asset sources for future income
A new deal that will change the future of citizens for dozens of years
A future of slaves, an irreversibly downgraded social fabric, a change toward acute poverty

But the money that was whisked away to foreign destination should come back, voluntarily or by coercive manner,s
To redeem customers’ accounts in banks and state debt obligations to the working people

Virtual economy instead of real economy,

To maintain the fixity of the Lebanese pound (linked to the dollars and overvalued since 2015)
And this shameful denial trend that began in 1992

And the loss of confidence, in the political class and in the banks
And then what?

People want solutions
The solution is to look towards the future
To save what can be saved
Preserve State assets and save citizen s’ deposit

Start by creating a commission for the protection and protection of citizen s’ deposit
Who will have the power to trace the bank transfers of politicians and financial mafia,

Starting with the most recent evaders
Who will have the mission to audit the financial statements of the central bank
Control, supervise and influence public action

Creating new structures to resume bank operations with the state
Propose to applicants to receive shares of these new structures or debt titles

Public resources belong to citizens
Public Resources Revenue must first pay back citizen s’ deposit and finance investments

Those responsible for disaster need to report and pay
Allowing the transition to a human economy that respects nature

An economy creating real wealth and job opportunities (industry, agriculture, real services…)
Restructuring, debt release, resignation of officials, early elections, reset then return to normal in the political and banking fields
Sometimes it is enough to change the course of things.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

May 2020
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