Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘pre-emptive war

What were Lebanon economic and social cost for Lebanon in Israel pre-emptive war in 2006?

هلق صحيح بحرب تموز تضررت ٣٤٥ ضيعة، تدمر ٣٠٥٣٩ بيت، تهجر ١.٥ مليون لبناني، هاجر ٢٠٠ ألف غيرن، تدمر ١٥% من المدارس، تدمرت ١٦ مستشفى، تلف ٩٢٦٧٢٠ ألف شجرة، توقف ١٢٠ إلف موظف عن العمل لمدة ٣٣ يوم، تدمر ٩١ جسر، تضرر ٦٢٠ كيلومتر من الطرقات، قتل ٢٠٠٠ لبناني، أصيب ١٠ الاف غيرهن، و خسر الإقتصاد اللبناني ١٥ مليار

Extracted from my diary, and written on November 24, 2006

Posted on October 23, 2008

It is a sunny and clear day. I think that it is important to first review the study prepared by Mark Perry and Alistair Crook for the British Forum of Confrontations on the July war between Israel and the Lebanese Resistance of Hezbollah.

(Actually, the main objective of Israel was to completely destroy all Lebanon infrastructure, bridges, “refineries”, highways, and Dahiyat in south Beirut. That’s what Israel did)

The bogus study came to the conclusion that Hezbollah won the war and was successful in penetrating the Israeli strategy, its cycle of decision making in the chain of command, intelligence gathering, and military maneuvering.

Though Hassan Nasrallah, (General Secretary of Hezbollah), warned Israel in many public speeches that Hezbollah is about to capture Israeli soldiers in exchange of the release of the Lebanese prisoners, still Israel was taken by complete surprise at the bold attack: mainly Israel supposed that this maneuver will not take place during summer when the “Arab” States from the Gulf and the Muslim Lebanese Shia emigrants flock to Lebanon for vacation.

The Hezbollah operation was easily carried out, and the later videos demonstrated that fact.

The incompetence of the Israeli commander, who failed to follow the military procedures, resulted in two tanks being destroyed in a minefield and many Israeli soldiers died. This unwarranted Israeli military error forced Olmert PM to escalate the confrontation into a full-fledged war, ahead of schedule set by the USA Bush Jr. for late autumn.

Though the vicious surprised escalation by Israel took Hezbollah by surprise it managed within minutes to mobilize its forces and the rocket officers.  The study estimated that Hezbollah has 600 rocket depots hidden 40 meters deep in mountains south of the Litany River.

The Hezbollah political officers had no knowledge of the locations of the depots for security reasons, even a field commander knew about the location of only three depots within his field of operation.

All the varied Israeli sources of military intelligence failed to accurately locate the rocket sites, as well as locating the leaders of Hezbollah, since Not a single one was killed; even Abu Jaafar, the southern military commander of Hezbollah did not die as Israel proclaimed on June 28.

Israel was flabbergasted by the total adherence of the Hezbollah militants by the war truth, 33 days later, a fact that confirmed the effective communication among Hezbollah bases after the methodical Israeli aerial bombardments for over 30 days and nights.

Hezbollah was also very successful in counter thwarting the Israeli espionage operations in Lebanon: it captured 16 spies before the war, many more during the war, and leaked erroneous information to the Israelis about the rocket sites which resulted in civilian casualties and worldwide uproar for the Qana massacre.

(The same town that witnessed the massacre of 110 civilians massed in the UN compound in 1996)

Israel lost as many soldiers and officers as Hezbollah did, or about 180.

The Hezbollah Nasr brigade in the south, strong of 3,000 fighters, did not need to be replenished neither in fighters or supplies during the whole period of the war.

The cause of continuous wavering of the Israeli military command to start the land invasion was due mainly to the disastrous previous small skirmishes that proved that the Hezbollah fighters were steadfast in holding on to their towns and villages and will not retreat.

When Israel called up the reserves sooner than expected on June 21, the US military strategist surmised that the Israeli army is in great trouble and is no longer doing well as hoped.

On June 21, Ehud Olmert PM urgently demanded from the US ammunition supplies which confirmed that Israel’s air depots have been depleted within the first week of its air strikes, and that Israel is in deep trouble.

The environs of the towns of Maroun El Ras and Bent Jbeil, by the border, did not fall in the hands of Israel for the duration of the war, even after Israel called up an additional 15,000 soldiers and the Golani brigade to dislodge the tenacious fighters.

The Merkava tank was defenseless against the second generation of anti tank missiles used by Hezbollah and which were fabricated in 1973.

At the same time, the “Khyber One” rockets which targeted the airbase in Afula, deep inside Israel, could not be intercepted.

Finally, the US hurriedly worked out a UN truth, at the instigation of Israel on August 10, because the Zionist soldiers, deep in south Lebanon, feared encirclement, total defeat, and surrender.

The consequences of this defeat, as stated by the study, were disastrous to both Israeli image of an undefeated State and the US foreign policies.

First, when US diplomats and politicians tried to be in touch with Jordan, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia after the war they realized that nobody in these pro American States dared respond to their calls;

Second, the US realized that its air superiority in a war against Iran is susceptible to be a failure in order to snatch any quick victory;

Third, the popularity of Hassan Nasrallah has become overwhelming in all the Arab and Muslim World, a fact that pursuing the accusations of terrorism will ridicule the US administration and sap any remnants of its credibility;

Fourth, the strategy adopted by Hezbollah discredited the complete political affiliation of the Arab regimes with the US policies in order to gain a few irrelevant advantages;

Fifth, the US is already unable to contemplate a coalition of the Arab and Muslim States in anticipation of an invasion of Iran, simply because these States can no longer afford to look as US stooges toward their people;

Sixth, any attempt by Israel to disable the Iranian nuclear plants will instigate a retaliation toward Israel nuclear plants and further weakening of the American presence in the Arab Gulf States as well as the fall of many pro American Arab States in a domino fashion. (A few days ago, an air-air missile fell by Israel Nuclear site of Dimona, and the Dome of patriotes failed to intercept it.)

Seventh, Israel is going to need, at least 15 years, to rebuild its military and intelligence capabilities in order to regain the image of undefeated army. Israel lost all its spying bunkers (labelled security services in Beirut) in 2008 by a 3-day cleaning up by Hezbollah.

Eight, the position of Iran in Iraq has drastically increased and the Shiaa might soon start an offensive against the US and British troops, their previous allies;

Ninth, the position of Syria in Lebanon has strengthened which is a defeat to the French program since it would be impossible from now on to form a government in Lebanon that antagonizes Syria.

The previous consequences of the study are conjectures so far.

Let us review what happened since after the July war.

First, George W. Bush administration was defeated grandly in the House and the Senate.

This administration has voiced readiness to consider alternative solutions to the Iraqi quagmire.  This administration will view world politics from a different perspective, except in the Greater Middle East. 

It seems that the Bush government is expressing its bitterness in our region. The Bush administration is the cause that the unity governments in Palestine and Lebanon are being postponed weeks after weeks at the detriment of our security and economic development.

Second, Britain has already decided to hand over the civil administration in Basra by the end of the year and has plans to retreat from Iraq altogether: Britain and the European States are vigorously seeking open and direct negotiations with Iran and Syria for a political resolution in Iraq

Third, Pakistan has reached a truth in the provinces bordering Afghanistan and is no longer willing to pursue the US maddening demands to fighting terrorism.

Fourth, Bush is facing serious hurdles meeting with “Arab” leaders. The Iraqi Prime Minister Maleki is not sincerely willing to meet Bush for the time being after Moqtada Sadr threatened to quit the government and the Chamber of deputies if he did, because the recent onslaught of the US forces in Sadr City in Baghdad.

Fifth, Saudi Kingdom is diversifying its military hardware by purchasing for over $1, 5 billions from Britain and Europe. Vice President Cheney visited Saudi Arabia to pressure it to purchase military hardware from the US.

Sixth, the US is about to transfer its major military bases from Qatar to another Gulf State after Qatar was actively flaunting the US plans in the region and openly voicing its concerns in the UN.

Seven, China has publicly announced that it will continue to aid Pakistan with its nuclear programs; China is implicitly behind the Iranian peaceful nuclear program and that is why the US is feeling impotent in setting up an economic effective embargo or contemplating any military alternative.

Eight, a recent survey by a European agency showed that Israel is considered the worst racist and apartheid State.

Nine, the US and Israel are trying hopelessly to start a civil war in Lebanon by effectively assassinating the Maronite Minister Pierre Gemayel Jr. Jordan King Abdullah is warning of imminent civil wars in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq. Bush is coming to Amman to meet Iraq Maliki PM and, most probably, to put the final touches to the execution of the civil war in Lebanon.

Ten, the foreign visitors to Lebanon are flocking to the south to witness the complete destruction of 30 towns and villages; they are carrying back video, pictures and interviews with the southern residents after shedding bitter tears at the view of these cataclysmic scenes. Hopefully a renewed awareness in the US and Europe of the main task of this mercenary State of Israel will expand.

Eleven, the parliamentary election in Bahrain, 70% of the population being of Shia sect, allowed the Shia and leftist movement to win big.

Twelve, Israel Olmert PM has finally agreed to a truth with Hamas in order to put a stop to the “Al Qassam” rockets directed to the kibbutz Sderot closest to Gaza.

Thirteen, Iranian Prime Minister has promised to help the US in Iraq if the US forces vacate completely this country.

Note: With the advent of Donald Trump, many “Arabic” States, especially those pseudo-State in the Gulf have officially recognized Israel.

Diary of a war in 2006 

Posted on October 21, 2008

My niece Joanna returned home around 11 p.m. and I will tell her a piece of my thoughts since she considers herself a sensible and an intelligent creature.  

 She has to drive at least 40 minutes on a deserted road and with one million refugees, people hungry and out of jobs and in dire need of gas, the possibilities for unusual behaviors might be understandable in this frustrating time.

Israel did a major incursion toward the town of Marjehyoun with a long file of tanks early this morning; two of its top commanders were killed.  By 10:30 the Israeli armed forces were retreating from the town.  There are indications that Israel is no longer serious about reaching the Litany River but it is attempting a few scary tactics for the last minutes political gains at the UN.  There are also indications that the Lebanese government has no other choices but to hold on to its program agreed at by consensus.

Israel targeted the Lebanese TV antenna in Amchit, near Byblos, and the old lighthouse near Koraytem, Al Manara, in Beirut and we should expect rockets raining on Tel Aviv if Nasr Allah decides to confirm his promises according to Hezbollah’s rules of the war.

Around noon, there was breaking news of an attempted attack on the London airport of Heathrow.  Britain and the USA are under Red Alert or the danger of imminent “terrorist” attacks.  No liquids of any kind are permitted on flights within the respective countries. The US minister of the interior is connecting these attacks to the “Al Qaeda” of Bin Laden.  Israel PM   Olmert has suspended the major land incursion pending the so called diplomatic outcomes.

In the afternoon, I dressed up and drove my mother to the funeral of one of our local poet Khalil Rasheed Fakhoury who composed the anthem of our internal security forces.  My plan was to offer my condolence to the bereaved family members of the poet but I could not find a place to park along the road for half a mile.  So I turned back, deposited my mom by the church and then resumed my trip to the gym.

While at the gym I have been hearing the Israeli jets flying over Beirut and suspected that they might target the suburbs of Shiyah and Burj Barajni as their flyers were warning the citizens.  This time the jets did not hurl their bombs on the suburb of Beirut but they targeted many more bridges and roads in the south and the Bekaa Valley.

Hezbollah launched more than 150 rockets on northern Israel and targeted Haifa as well.  Israel continued to evacuate the town of Kiryat Shemouna.

I came back home late after 9:45 p.m. on account that Joanna has the habit of not abiding by any closing time. I found my mother furious.  She claimed that I said that I will be back soon, which I didn’t, and she had to wait at my aunt Montaha’s home. 

Montaha was getting sleepy and my mom had to visit a neighbor’s of Montaha to give her a lift.  After super I intended to join my nephews and Michael (don’t recall who is this Michael) for a game of poker but the electricity went off, public and private.  I lighted a few candles and went to bed.  It appears that the public electricity came back soon while asleep and my nephews played different games and some of them went to bed at 6.

Note: A couple of days before the certain cease fire by the UN, Israel committed 2 major crimes against humanity.

First, Israel spread over a million cluster bombs in the south (received from Scotland on order of Britain PM Blair. Lebanon and teams of the UN peacekeeping contingents are still demining this large region in 2020 that harvested dozens of citizens and maimed scores of them.

Second, totally destroyed a half-mile radius of very dense Dahiyat in Beirut, using depleted uranium

The assassination of Luqman Slim underlines that the scope for dissent in Lebanon is rapidly narrowing.(More like widening with the increase of calamities that are Not resolved by any institution)

The killing of Luqman Slim is another bad omen for Lebanon. Luqman was not just any activist. (Very few Lebanese have heard of him, mostly the embassies were dealing with him and funding his institution Umam)

He was a vocal critic of Hezbollah (for over 25 years and he visited Israel too), who chose to continue living in his family’s home in Haret Hreik in the southern suburbs of Beirut, an area controlled by those whom he criticized harshly. (And lived in security and safety)

I met Luqman in 2004 with the late journalist Samir Kassir and Samir’s wife Giselle Khoury. (Late Kassir was assassinated by the Druse civil war leader Walid Jumblatt, as a matter of female jealousy )

Luqman, with his wife Monika Borgmann, had invited us to watch a private screening of a movie they had produced on the Sabra and Shatila massacres of 1982.

The debate that ensued was as harrowing as it was enlightening. It was the first of many interactions over the subsequent two years around the memory of the civil war, questions of accountability, and commemoration of the victims, and their importance for Lebanon’s future. These debates dissipated after Samir’s assassination on June 2, 2005.

Luqman was also a harsh critic of Lebanon’s political class, of the repression of the uprising in Syria, of Iran’s regional involvement, and of much else. (What about US invasion of Iraq? Of Israel successive pre-emptive wars on Lebanon…)

But he was also more than that. With Monika, Luqman went on to establish the UMAM documentation and research center in his family home. UMAM aims to inform the future (generation?) by addressing past atrocities.

Since 2005, the center has been collecting information and establishing a database for all those killed, or who disappeared, during the fifteen-year Lebanese civil war. It has also made documentaries and organized discussions on some of the most painful episodes of that conflict.

Their work is critical if Lebanon is to come to terms with the war’s legacy and is essential in determining accountability for the crimes committed during that time. (The Lebanese parliament decided to absolve all the civil war leaders and those who committed crimes against humanity. And these “leaders” are still controlling and ruling Lebanon since 1992)

This work carried out by Luqman and Monika was vital in a country where the political leadership is largely made up of those who fought during the war. Lebanon’s conflict ended with the mantra of “no victor and no vanquished.”

In 1991, parliament passed an amnesty law covering most of the crimes committed during the conflict. Militia leaders moved from the streets into government to occupy the state and its institutions. The history of the civil war was never integrated into school curriculums. Knowledge of the war has largely been defined by individual points of view, not by a collective Lebanese effort to remember the war to better transcend it.

To understand the killing of Luqman one must also look at Lebanon’s broader context.

Since October 2019, when the Lebanese took to the streets to protest against the corruption of their political parties and leaders, the country has been facing an economic collapse that has impoverished more than half the population and decimated the middle class. (Bankrupt State at all levels, politically, economically and financially)

Rather than addressing the sources of discontent, the leadership has remained unwilling to implement the reforms needed to unlock international financial aid, for fear that this would undermine their influence over their constituencies.

Lockdown measures associated with Covid-19 have only hastened this economic breakdown. Without outside financial support Lebanon will continue to sink into the abyss.

Ironically, by protecting their system and continuing with a business-as-usual approach the political parties have also signed its death warrant. That may not be a bad thing, but in the meantime millions of Lebanese will suffer terribly.

The catastrophic (electromagnetic pulse bomb) explosion in the port of Beirut last August 4 further increased the anger of the Lebanese and their vocal criticism of the political leadership.

Six months later, no one has been held accountable for what happened and the official investigation is going nowhere. For many Lebanese there was no question as to who was responsible, when protestors hanged effigies of their political leaders on gallows set up at a demonstration in Martyrs’ Square last year.

Luqman’s killing underlines that the space for dissent is closing fast in Lebanon. Over the past year or so, the political leadership’s tolerance for criticism has been decreasing as more and more journalists and critics have been taken into custody by the authorities.

Yet Luqman’s killing went much further. It heralded a return to political assassinations as a means of silencing those in opposition.

The crime has sent shock waves across Lebanon and beyond, especially among opposition groups and, more so, among most of the 19 officially recognized religious sects.

For many this brought back memories of 2005 and the years that followed, when Samir Kassir, Gebran Tueni, (Communist secretary general Georges Hawi, Mohamad Chatah, Pierre Jr. Gemayel, and many security officials… Pierre Jr. Gemayel was assassinated by agents who were dispatched from the US embassy and returned to the embassy. And why was Pierre Jr. assassinated? Because he expressed his opinion during the government meeting of valuing Hezbollah resistance during the 33 days pre-emptive Israel/US in 2006)

One wonders whether Luqman Slim would have been killed had Kassir and Tueni killers been brought to justice. (Lebanon never brought to trial Israel, US, France, England… perpetrator of assassinations, Not even lesser States such as Jordan, Saudi Kingdom or the Emirate..)

That is why we should have serious doubts as to whether those who assassinated Luqman will themselves be brought to justice.

Consequence of Israel pre-emptive war on Lebanon in June 2006

Israel launched a pre-emptive war on Lebanon in 2006 that lasted 33 days. Monstrous infrastructure devastation ensued that cost Lebanon $15 bn.

2,000 Lebanese died and four fold were injured and handicapped. Israel lost thousands of its soldiers, on land and on sea, and a third of Israel population were incarcerated in shelters for the duration.

Supposedly, Israel was attacking Hezbollah, but every region in Lebanon was hit with fighter jets bombs and missiles. In the last day of the ceasefire, Israel dropped million of cluster bombs delivered to it from Scottish manufacturers and weapon reserved by order of Blair PM. 13 years later, many civilians are killed or handicapped from these cluster bombs.

1,5 million Lebanese civilians took refuge inside Lebanon or in Syria and 200,000 left to overseas  countries to start a new life.

over 30,500  houses were demolished and 350 towns terribly devastated.

16 main hospital knocked down and 15% of schools targeted.

120,000 public servants were out of work in 33 days.

91 main bridges bombed and 650 km of road damaged

92,000 trees lost.

Once the cease fire was declared on July 15, almost all southern citizens returned immediately, using makeshift bridges to reach their towns and homes.

The Government had warn them Not to return on the excuse of fear of “Not exploded bombs”, but they did return and won the war: Israel wished the south be vacated by its inhabitants and this project failed miserably.

A few Gulf States tried to be forgiven by their support of Israel war and tried a reconstruction of Lebanese towns and bridges.

Since 2006, Israel population and army declined to go to war on Hezbollah: this horror fiasco is still in their psychic, as well of the experience of living in shelter.

I did write my diary of this war and how the Lebanese behaved.

The bloody scenes I’ll never forget from Gaza’s Return March

A year ago, Israeli forces gunned down 64 demonstrators during Gaza’s Great Return March. Palestinian journalist Hind Khoudary was there to see it all — the bloody stretchers, the wounded, and the dead.

By Hind Khoudary. May 15, 2019

Medics evacuate a Palestinian protester who was shot by Israeli snipers during protests inside the Gaza Strip, May 14, 2018. (Mohammed Zaanoun/Activestills.org)

Medics evacuate a Palestinian protester who was shot by Israeli snipers during protests inside the Gaza Strip, May 14, 2018. (Mohammed Zaanoun/Activestills.org)

 

GAZA CITY — F16s are flying on low velocity over the Gaza sky as I get flashbacks to May 14 of last year. I don’t know if I will ever be able forget all the scenes I witnessed on that ugly day. The images I witnessed are carved into my brain and heart until today, perhaps forever.

It was very early in the morning, everyone was predicting a backlash from the Palestinians after the U.S. opened its embassy in Jerusalem. I headed to the protest area early that day; women, men, and children waved Palestinian flags and chanted slogans against Trump.

I was working with two news outlets and as a fixer with internationals.

Even today I have no idea how I was able to cope with all of the workload. By 11 a.m. the internet was disconnected entirely. No signal.

Suddenly, all I heard were ambulances.

The wounded on crutches, live ammunition and tear gas canisters fired into the air. The next thing I knew, paramedics were washing blood from the stretchers, their uniforms turning red.

The situation grew more dangerous. My phone wouldn’t stop ringing — everyone was trying to call me to make sure I was okay. I said I was, but my trembling voice and the screaming in the background told a different story.

Running out of breath with the heavy flack jacket, we hid from live ammunition under the burning sun while suffocating from tear gas for hours. The scene was so bad that I couldn’t speak for two days.

I won’t ever forget the scene of the 30-year-old man shot in the middle of his head in front of my eyes, the little children crying from teargas as they searched for their parents, the Israeli soldiers stationed behind the fence arresting three boys and beating them up, the 80-year-old woman who participated in the march, demanding the right to return because she still believes she will go back to the town she was expelled from someday.

Bashir Faraj, 23, lost his right leg after he was hit by live bullets that completely fractured his bones and tissues. His leg was eventually amputated. I met Faraj a day after his injury, when he was screaming in the hospital bed with the external fixture on his right leg. He never thought he will lose his leg.

Faraj was only one of the hundreds of Palestinians my age that I interviewed who lost limbs — and their futures — that day. All in all, 64 people lost their lives that day, and thousands more, like Faraj, were wounded.

Palestinian protesters clash with Israeli troops during Nakba Day protests on the Israel-Gaza fence, east of Gaza City, May 15, 2019. (Hassan Jedi/Flash90)

Palestinian protesters clash with Israeli troops during Nakba Day protests on the Israel-Gaza fence, east of Gaza City, May 15, 2019. (Hassan Jedi/Flash90)

I have no idea if May 15 will be a new deadly day this year, if the Israeli forces will use lethal force against Palestinian protesters. But whether they do or not, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have the right to protest the harsh conditions they have been facing over the past 12 years under the blockade.

Unemployment, poverty, and depression are part of every home here.

Despite the fact that the Great Return March has been politically weaponized over the past months, the people of Gaza are still protesting because they still have hope that they can remove the blockade and improve the lives of the two million Palestinians living here.

Despite all the difficulties I witnessed as I covered the protest — the violence, the blood, and the injustice — I will continue to report and raise the voice of the voiceless people in the Gaza Strip, today, tomorrow, and forever.

Hind Khoudary is a reporter based in Gaza. 

Note: After every pre-emptive war on Gaza , Israel promise to expand the fishing zone, and then it drops its promises, as so many since its independence in 1948 by a single vote at the  reduced UN then.

 

US Reportedly Give Israel Green-light For Full-Scale War On Gaza

DAMASCUS, SYRIA (2:25 P.M)- According to News reports, the US have given Israel a green-light to launch a full scale military operation against Gaza.

Approximately 7 hours ago, a rocket was reportedly fired from the Gaza Strip, hitting a home in the North of Tel Aviv and injuring 7. Israel blamed Hamas for the rocket fire, however there has been no confirmation of who fired it.

Israeli PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, was on a trip to the United States and was due to deliver a speech to the Israeli Lobby group AIPAC on Tuesday. He has announced the cancellation of this speech and headed back to Israel, declaring that Israel will now strike the Gaza Strip.

Hamas have allegedly communicated, through Egyptian contacts, to Israel, that they will respond to Israeli aggression.

Israel have placed the Golani Brigade on standby, stationed the military surrounding Gaza and declared the surrounding settlement villages, close to the perimeter of Gaza, as closed military zones.

Israel have also informed Hamas, through Egypt, that “any retaliation to our attack on Gaza will result in a full scale war”.

Israel will commence its attack upon the Gaza Strip in the coming minutes/hours.

Note 1: I have the impression that both parties US/Israel and military factions in Gaza are trying hard Not to foment passions on social media. Apparently, US want a full-fledged occupation of Gaza, but Israel knows better Not to. So far no Red-Lines have been crossed outrageously. Probably, the warning of Hezbollah of Lebanon to get engaged was received seriously in Israel.  

Note 2:

This Monster called Zionist organisation was created, funded and facilitated by all the colonial powers who wanted the poorer Jewish classes to get out. The best strategy is to let the “leaders’, educated and rich Jews to convince these poor Jews to immigrate to Palestine. We cover all the expenses of your transfer: better die in misery in Palestine where you’ll be closer to your God and in your mystical land…

The richest Jews, like the Rothschild, bought cheap lands, mostly swamps, and made these poor Jews work for them as slaves. Most of initial waves died of malaria, cholera and diphtheria…

Tidbits and Notes. Part 254

Note: My previous large file titled “Tidbits and notes. Part 211” has vanished after I pressed Leave instead of Cancel. WordPress,com support system was of No help. If you know how I can retrieve the file, I’ll be very appreciative.

Dans ma jeunesse, j’etais trop timide et plutot passif: peut-etre que les conversations autour de moi etaient inexistantes ou plutot sans interet? Je ne savais pas comment jouer le jeu des petites conversations, a caliner ou complimenter. Plus tard, les gens crurent que j’etais un snob: J’hibernais dans ma peau d’enfance.

An invariant in Israel politics: When Israel claims it is negotiating a peace treaty or a cease fire, it means that it is ready to launch a pre-emptive war. Israel establishment and weapon industrial complex believes that it cannot sustain a long period of peace, and actually never tried it.

Le Chevalier? Representative of French President visited Israel and relayed to Lebanon that Israel is preparing a pre-emptive war on Lebanon? The test in Gaza is Not encouraging Israel for another try on Lebanon. However, the plan of USA/Israel is to start another round of civil war in Lebanon. And Lebanon is fooling itself that it learned the lesson, but it learned nothing much but sinking its head deeper in the sand. And without funding, the army will be unable to maintain its cohesion.

Stupid France still think that it can foment civil war in Syria and keep Lebanon intact from the flame roaring around it: The USA is Not that stupid and the plan for starting another civil war in Lebanon is very much going ahead.

The idea of creating Israel by England around 1907, with instigation of the US Evangelical sects, was when England realized that it needed a buffer zone to protect its interests in India through Egypt by eliminating any kind of unification of the Middle-Eastern people in the foreseeable future. 

An old man in the psych group said: “The assassin is serving a life sentence. And it is still Not a comfort for me” And what if this prisoner would be let free within 20 years? Instead of sorrow and anger, most probably fear will set in?

The world’s billionaires made more money in 2017 than in any year in recorded history. A UBS report says billionaires become 20% richer last year. (Mind you that their number is increasing crazily since China and India billionaires are closing the gap with the colonial powers of USA and Europe combined)

It is a Universal truth that mothers will Not “betray” their children to the police under any basis of ethics, moral or “this is the law”: They have enough loads in issues and activities to control and administer in the household that they don’t care to add a bigger problem.

If you want to lear how to express your opinions, read, take notes, reflect and write. If you want to learn the wide range of “shata2em” and “bahwaraat”, plug-in to “Arabic” and Trump-like social medias.

The EU turns its clocks back by one hour on Sunday. It may be the last time the bloc uses Daylight Saving Time, after citizens voted to abolish it earlier this year.

A lack of frequent, helpful feedback is among the top reasons people quit their jobs. Studies show that more communicative, honest cultures drive increased productivity, innovation, and employee satisfaction.
Is Feedback a social threat”? And like any threat, it’s accompanied by physiological and cognitive responses, including an increase in heart rate and blood pressure and feelings of anger, anxiety, and fear.
Making matters worse, humans are biased towards negativity—a tendency to over-index negative interactions relative to neutral or positive ones. These physiological responses can inhibit us from effectively processing any feedback that we perceive as threatening to our identities, happiness, and jobs. (Ed Batista)

 

I can figure out how the next pre-emptive war of Israel on Syria and Lebanon will unfold.

Since 2008, and for 33 days, Israel with the planning and total support of USA and Saudi Kingdom, launched an 8th pre-emptive war on Lebanon.  The plan decided for September was advanced in June 22 after Hezbollah managed to capture Israeli prisoners and kill 8 more in a hurried counter-attack by a tank commander.

Ever since, Israel is totally wary to contemplate another foolish and devastating military defeat, agreed by most world community observers. Israel had to beg Bush Jr to desist pressuring it to continue the fight and UN resolution 1701 was voted on for a cease fire.

The next day thousands of Lebanese refugees, fleeing war, returned to their homes. They discarded the warnings of the government and threw makeshift bridges to cross destroyed bridges and bombed highways. It took the Israelis 6 months to return to their homes.

Every year, Israel spend plenty of money in military maneuvers to convince Hezbollah that it is ready for another match of revenge. Most Israeli commentators agree that Israel internal readiness is Not prepared for any such kinds of long-protracted war and the army itself don’t want any such adventure: the soldiers are still in shock and receiving treatment for the surprises they were Not warned of them.

No, Israel, on its own volition will Not attempt another pre-emptive war, but since USA considers Israel as its land fighter carrier, the possibility that Israel will be dragged manu-military to engage in another war on Lebanon and Syria if USA decided to frighten Iran by a “Chock and Awe” massive bombing tactics.

There will be no short war and matter will deteriorate.

Pressured by US for military support in a critical pre-emptive war in the Persian Gulf, Israel will lukewarmly launch a massive airstrike in the neighboring States, hoping that it would be a short-term war for face saving initiative and a divergence tactic for the real US engagement on Iran.

Hezbollah reaction will be to target all Israel airfields and communication centers and ignite monster fires everywhere in Israel. The next missile strikes will target the electrical and energy grids.

If Iran decides to prolong the war, it will order Hezbollah to fall back on the plan of effective incursions inside Israel.

Then the third missile launch will focus on Israel military and logistic centers, civilian and military, in Israel central region, to disturb transportation and movement of troops.

The fourth missile strikes will target the essential ports and submarines concentrated in Eshkelon and in central Israel.

Hezbollah navy commandos will land on the seashore in central Israel, capture a few ports and towns around them. This attack will divide Israel into two parts and pressure Israel to decide where to focus its army.

If Israel transfer troops from the north by the Golan Heights, Syria army will launch a counter-offensive to re-conquer the Hights, all the way to the Houla city.

If Israel transfer troops from around Gaza, Hamas and Jihad Islamic militias will attempt to link with the West Bank.

From then on, all possibilities are open to be contemplated.

If the West Bank Palestinians managed to acquire and store weapons, strategic settlements around West Jerusalem will be first attacked and massive fleeing of Israeli to East Jerusalem and Tel Aviv will be underway.

Settlers would prefer to vacate the lands in West Jerusalem, hoping that a negotiated cease fire will allow them to return to a few settlements.

Hopefully, Hezbollah has a plan to move and capture Nablus up north, re-take a few strategic settlements around this city and start transferring weapons and foodstuff to Palestinians in that region for a protracted defensive resistance.

The cease fire will ensure that Israel Parliament rescind its law that Israel is Only for the Jews and that West Jerusalem is the Capital of the Palestinian Homeland State.

The defunct British mandated law of administrative detention will be cancelled.

Palestinian refugees will be allowed to return.

Note: This narrative is based on current situation. If the monarchy in Jordan is deposed in the blood, the longest border with Israel will become the coup-de grace for Israel existence. Palestinians in Jordan will infiltrate and occupy settlement along the Jordan river.

No land mines or massive bombing will prevent the stampede on existing settlements for the Return Home and witnessing the mass fleeing of Israelis.

Once The Palestinians in Jordan link up with the West Bank, a totally new scenario will be negotiated at the UN for a new status of Palestine and Israel.

Notes and comments on FB and Twitter. Part 37

La CIA accapara l’ appareil d’ Etat du Guatemala en 1962 et le pays fut sous le choc de la terreur: Un calme absolu remplaca un mois de démonstrations

Le term revolutionnaire m’ est devenu dérangeant: on l’ emploie trop facilement et trop frequement. Comme attribuer a l’ emploie le plus ancient du monde de revolutionnaire.

En science naturel on a le term paradigm shift qui veut dire changer une notion ou une method dans la profession. En matiére de retenir le pouvoir, il n’ y a pas de paradigm shift: on n’ a pas reussi a changer la method et les techniques pour une duré assez longue pour établir sa validité

Le Marquis: J’aurais juré que vous étiez incredule. Le medecin: Que ne donnerai-je pas pour l’être

C’est vrai: les chansons disent que l’amour pouvait tout et c’est indeniable quand l’amour frappe á la porte. Mais tu ferais mieux de ne pas le croire

Les dimensions normaux du corps humain sont rare a trouver: le cul est trop grand pour le corps, et vice versa. Et la même chose pour l’autre sex

Tout pays est consideré petit si moins de 100,000 Km2. Le Liban est insignificant en grandeur (10,000 km2) mais le plus dense (600 par km2)

The invincible economic progress of China was emulated from Germany educational system, based on early apprenticeship for quality design and products

Parcequ’elle se nourit des sens, l’incredulité est plus resistante que la foi

Chaque President en Amerique Central et en Afrique a ses nouveaux prisonniers et les nouveaux émigrés. Les prisonniers relachés des prison n’ont jamais été jugés.

Israel is still applying British administrative detention laws against the Palestinians. Le droit n’a pas accés á ces prisonniers. No better than US terrorists activities in Central America against civilians.

84% de la population au Guatemala en 1970 n’avait pas le droit de vote: Ils était illetrés. 4.5% pouvait élire un President (un colonel)

En Amerique central, les militaires du Pentagon ont des function limités en temps de paix: Ils preparent des putch, destituent un President, fichent les “communists” á être éliminé, augmentent le budget militaire… Rien de plus.

Israel ordered by a tribunal to empty 12,000 tons of ammoniac in Haifa within 30 days. Israeli public are worried of Hezbollah decision of targeting it if Israel launch another pre-emptive war on Lebanon as in 2006 

Syrian regime Not in a hurry: Tadmor has fallen, Deir-el Zour pretty soon. All it wants now is to clean all these pockets of resistance around the main cities of Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo.

Let Turkey and the USA take care of Rakka, a task they sincerely don’t want to be directly involved because they are Not trained for these kinds of wars. Only Syrian and Iraqi armies have acquired these skills and training.

The Taxis of Ain 3aar, who agreed on a single Lira, stop to give me sha2leh

La plaie de la fortune, pauvre mais reconnue, saigne toujours

Les livres que j’écrivais ne reposer sur aucune vérité poétique

Une famille qui n’a jamais été acteur ou victim, mais un temoin inutile qui avait souffert du tout.

Ce paradis terrestre de la desolation et de la nostalgie

J’ai été navire sans voiles et sans gouvernail: je ne pouvais naviger loin d’óu j’etais

Let’s have this experiment: censuring “incha2allah” from all movies and observe if the meaning of the story remains the same. Implicitly, most of the audience will add 4 times more “incha2allah than was censured: the vast majority of destiny-believers

Il m’aime, même laide, ce qui n’est pas rassurant. Quand jeune and fougeux?

Cet amour inconditionnel: Il ne me met pas en danger, il ne me magnifie pas, il est a ma disposition sans être un asservi

Quel age as tu mon garcon? 70 ans maman. Alors, tu mérites d’être orphelin a present

We can safety censure Incha2allah from our public discourse in our region: It won’t change much in our behaviour, but the illusion of probable change is important for our sanity

J’appartient á cette foule vieillisante, en route, main dans la main, avancant vers une destiné connue, qu’on veut oublier

Une femme crochéte tout au long de sa vie et laisse ses petites étendues de tissue, avec des motifs difficiles, qui ne servent a rien, ni a personne maintenant.

Un rien peut me faire douter de la cohesion des gens et du monde. Et si ce rien est nombreux et bien plus que rien?

Ceux qui croient au destin jugent les libre-arbitres. Et vice versa.

Le vent aride de la pauvrete me porte á divers embouchures, ayant la même âme du pauvre

Avant de bondir, le chat est le plus lent du monde

Quand les nuits se faisaient longues, la date de la fête “regarder le ciel”(mirar el ciel) était decidé et on devait être prêt pour la vérité

Sans la profusion des etoiles, on ne peut assimiler la force du vide

Apprendre a être une chamber noire ou tout le vaste univers passe par le trou miniscule de ta pupille.

La toux de vieux chien qui gache la jeunesse

Jaloux de mon intimité, ceux qui la percait s’attiraient des repliques cinglantes


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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