Adonis Diaries

Population explosion? Will demographic reach a steady-state level? Part 2.

The strong passions generated by the term “overpopulation” is cyclical:  There are periods when politics and religion reach a consensus on that subject and the trend in population changes significantly.  For example, when religious clergies start emphasizing chastity and the superior virtue of virginity and abstinence, coupled with political laws discouraging high rate of birth by dangling financial incentives and tax breaks for smaller families, the population in centralized political systems decrease appreciably; such as in China, Japan, Germany…

The reverse is true as the two powers of religion and political system recollected the motto “Increase and multiply” with financial incentives to supporting larger families, particularly in emerging economical States.  In both cases, the quota on the number of legal immigrants fluctuate accordingly.

For example, between the 3rd and fifth century, Catholic Rome was the main initiator for birth control so that the neighboring countries to Rome don’t feel this catalyst of invading and ransacking the Roman Empire.  Consequently, remarriage was prohibited and the focus was on abstinence and asceticism.

When mankind was in the stage of “hunter-gatherer”, it is estimated that a clan of 50 members required a “vital area” of up to 25 square-kilometer per person, depending on the fertility of the land.  Clans would then split into smaller groups to exploring other areas for exploitation.  I am pretty confident that elephants and lions need far smaller”vital area” since mankind has this endemic lust for hoarding many unnecessary stuffs.

Since antiquity, philosophers were more concerned on the cultural quality of “overpopulation” in City-States for the inability of efficient control on the moral values consented by the elite classes.  Plato wrote in the Republic “When there are many citizens in the city, the citizens get out of control”.  It was the same concept upheld by Aristotle. Thus, the modern worries of lack of food production and supply to feed the growing population on earth has started in the 18th century.

For example, Thomas Robert Malthus wrote in 1798 his “Essay on the principle of population”.  He stated: “I think that I can frankly posit two postulates: First, food is necessary for the existence of mankind; and second, the reciprocal passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain as it is today. I say that the multiplication power of people increases geometrically, far greater than the arithmetic increase of food supply.  The unbalance of these two multiplication powers have to be equalized to maintain nature law.”  The trends are fundamentally accurate, if no external factors come into play to changing the coefficient factors in the equations.

For example, the UN is estimating that population will level at 9 billion in 2050, and simply reach a steady-state of 10 billion by 2150.  In the meantime, since 1960 (population of 3 billion), mankind added one billion every 13 years.  It is estimated that earth had a single billion in 1800 and barely increased to 1.6 billion in 1900.  The overpopulation concept acquired a new heated level of discussion in 1980, and many States started serious policies of changing population trends.

Many deduced that Malthus was proposing eugenics (killing) policies in order for the food production and supply to be sufficient among the surviving people.Actually, it the political systems that are enacting law to legitimize implicit eugenics for limiting birth increases and selecting the sex of the new born, such as in China and India and many other States.

Seven billion people is already one too many and a heavy burden, not simply to feed, and feed properly, but mainly on the quality of life.  Mankind is learning that they all should have equal opportunities and rights as the elite classes and they want to acquire these human rights and human development indicators on many levels.

For example, should a single vegetative individual of the rich classes be expected to live an extra decade at the expense of millions in poorer countries?  Should only boys be selected to live as it is regularly performed in India and China?

Currently, you have all these people predicting that technologies applied in food production can feed the currently over 7 billion people and will provide for the 9 billion expected in the next three decades.

True, earth is crowded with 7 billion, but in fact, only two billion are living adequately, while 5 billion are barely surviving, and proportionally eating far less than any other animal species. The surviving 5 billion people are reduced to subsiding on a couple low quality energy ingredients for their daily intake.

True, food production can increase to feed the 7 billion, but why only cows and “clean energy” substitutes are preventing the 5 billion to eat adequately?

In effect, Malthus nature law is effectively being applied:  The barely surviving 5 billion people are pressured to believe in religious dogma of accepting their precarious “fate” as nature or divine selection among eligible classes to govern and rule.

Occasionally, people revolted and violently to these stupid dogma and changed political structure for fairer distribution of food or wealth. In general, the power-to-be managed to quell these “self-righteous” uprising that were against divine prescriptions!

Things are changing:  Belief systems are changing.  People are very aware of the indignities heaped upon them by elite programs and policies, and are confident of their potentials as equal in intelligence, and in human rights and opportunities.

Food shortages, high food prices, and lack of jobs opportunities are catalysts in these current revolts in the Arab World States, but the main cause is the greater awareness, in this quick transmission of information, that dignity as equal has been trampled, and that grievous injustices have been  applied on the common people.

The common people comprehend that the UN “human development indicators” means:  It is not acceptable that many classes within a society witness high rate of maternal mortality in giving birth, high rate of infantile mortality, high rate of juvenile (less than 5 year-old) mortality, high rate of adolescent (less than 20 of age) mortality, high rate of inability to read and write…

It is unacceptable that India with double the yearly income of Bangladesh witness a lesser performance than Bangladesh in Human Development Indicators:  It is unacceptable that India maintain the social and political structure of the “untouchable” classes as ordered by the Hindu religious clerics.

Every new born among the 7 billion has the odd of 7 to 10 to be raised in a poor country, with very low rates in human development indicators.