Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Rafic Hariri

Lebanon uprising (Intifada): Are we just slaves to our caste system?

Since October 17, the Lebanese took to the streets in every city demanding a change in our political/financial system. This sectarian system has degraded since Lebanon “fictitious” independence in 1943: we ended up with 19 officially recognized religious sects. each sect having the monopoly to its co-coreligionist civil registry from birth to death.

Since 1994, the civil war militia leaders of (1975-91) took power and control of Lebanon political system. Nabih Berry, chairman of the Parliament for 22 successive years, became the Godfather of these militia/mafia leaders. Every deputy in the parliament was attributed a monopoly in consumer goods, energy, financial transactions, services… and the head of the parliamentary block receive a substantial part of the profit and they appoint the civil servants in the State institutions. (This is the definition of Anomy political/economic system)

In 1994, Rafic Hariri was dispatched by Saudi Kingdom to become Lebanon PM and he set up the financial Ponzi scheme. Rafic would borrow loans and accumulated Lebanon sovereign debt from just $3bn to over $100 bn. The assumption was that the USA would wipe out all our debt as soon as Lebanon sign a peace treaty with Israel.

Actually, in order to force his being appointed PM, through his financial partners and the chief of the Central Bank Riad Salami, he devalued the Lebanese pound (LP) to 3,000 for the dollar and then re-instated the change to 1,500 to the $ and pigged it to the the dollar ever since.

Note: A re-edit of “Democracy or servitude in Lebanon’s caste system? (October 17, 2007)”

I recently read a 125-pages study by Safia Antoun Saadeh that was researched through a Fulbright grant.

Safia visited Harvard University as a scholar for the academic year 1992-93.  This study is so far the most condensed and comprehensive study of Lebanon social and political structure.

The study was most instructive and it clearly defined our social and political system that explains our problems and recurring civil wars and may forecast our difficulties in the coming months.

In a nut shell, our society has been gradually and consistently developing a political structure, based on a caste system (a closed religious sect) through the Ottoman legacy and has been strengthened since our independence in 1943.

The definition of a Caste is that it is a closed system restricted in five elements;

First, communities are ranked from high to low

Second, it is formed of endogamous groups where marriages is restricted within the caste and intermarriage among caste is socially sanctioned,

Third, membership is determined by birth and is inherited and ascribed,

Fourth, the group at the top may be the largest numerically, and

Fifth, mobility is restricted and an individual can move up within the caste and the caste, as a whole, attempts to move up; thus, the frequent rivalry among castes competing to take precedence in the hierarchical ranking.

All these elements actually coincide mostly with the Lebanese social and political structure and, however we understand the concepts of tribalism, feudalism, sectarianism, clan or classes, we end up realizing that they are incomplete models for our structure and are not satisfactory to explaining and forecasting our predicaments.

The contents of “The social structure of Lebanon” by Safia Sadeh starts with the definitions of tribal, sectarian, feudal, and communities, then on the Ottoman legacy in matters of occupation stratification and religious affiliation, then the period of transition in the 19th century, then the social stratification in Greater Lebanon, then society and social structure, then the fate of the State up to the Taef accord in 1991 and finally the conclusion.

(Greater Lebanon of just over 10,000 is an assemblage or attachment to Mount Lebanon by the French colonial power of the southern region, the Bekaa Valley and the Northern regions of Tripoli and Akkar)

As the sociology scholar Tonnies stated: “When many use the same language, they must be agreed about the use of names.  This is necessary in science, for science consists in exactly true statements. Every science must therefore start with definitions

I will define the terms of tribe, sectarian, clan, feudal, community, or class as an appendix; and although they are fundamental in elucidating our social structure, this article will overrun the requirements for publishing and I need to go to the point directly. I did though go into the details in my review for this study

The majority of the Lebanese are unable to trace their lineage as tribes and the exogamy rule has not been applied and clans have been integrated within the caste system.

The term sect, taken literally, no longer applies to the current Lebanese situation since we don’t have a theocratic state.  Translating sectarianism by “al ta2ifiyyah” is misleading.  There used to be sects in our ancient history when the Nestorians opposed the Byzantine institutional church or when the Shiis, Ismailis, and Druze opposed the Sunni institutional theocratic state.

The “Arab East” (Arabic Peninsula, the Gulf States and southern Iraq) did not develop a feudal system in any of its historical periods; the lords could not acquire big stretches of land that were passed to the first-born following the law of primogeniture by which the whole real estate of intestate passes solely to the eldest son.

First, the Koranic law stipulates the division of inheritance and second, during the Ottoman hegemony lands (Iqta3) were retrieved from the favorite officers at death.

Syria and Lebanon witnessed the beginnings of private ownership on a large scale after the middle of the 19th century, due to the Ottoman reforms.  The only group which was allowed to inherit land under Islamic rule was the religious order and later named (waqf) when citizens gave their lands to the Religious Order to avoid taxes or trouble.

When the Ottoman theocratic Empire undertook a few reforms that permitted the ownership of private properties and allowed that stratification might move along class lines then a class of feudal lords emerged and new secular schools were established and a Constitution was proclaimed in the Ottoman Empire that enabled landlords and notables to be deputies.

Usually, the Maronite Christian Order supported the peasant rebellions against the feudal lords to maintain its caste supremacy in Lebanon.

For a time, the lords of different religions would unite to oppose peasant revolts but eventually the caste system vanquished that trend and the lords rallied to their respective castes. Feudal lords would become the upper class within each caste.  Each caste had now its own religious courts, its own members in the representative Council and within the government offices.

In present Lebanon, I believe that a few families acquired huge pieces of land and sold whole villages to head the list of candidates to the Parliament within a caste system; for example, the Solh, Salam, Jumblat, Skaf, Eddeh and so forth.  A few of these landlords sold whole villages to the Zionist Organization.

It is unavoidable to defining a class because of the socialist and Marxist theories.

Class is an open system where individuals are ranked instead of communities and intermarriage is not restricted, and membership is based mostly on economic status and the hierarchy takes the shape of a pyramid, with only an elite or small group at the top but mobility is feasible to moving up through finance and professionalism.  Thus, a class is not just the opposite of caste as a closed system; for example, middle classes in countries are formed of individuals from all castes and have received education and intermingled, and intermarried and feel reasonably acquainted with their status and prospects.

Whenever a middle class is weakened then theocracy and undemocratic political systems take over the ruling of society.  The lower class of the poor and disinherited has never been a leader in any political change.

How did Lebanon end up with a caste system?

Stratification in the Ottoman Empire from the middle of the 16th century and up till the beginning of the 20th was set along occupation in its minutest details and then assigned ranks to the different religious community.

The hierarchical ranking of occupations started with men of the sword (Emirs), men of the pen (Ulama or Mollas), merchants and food producers, then artisans, then peasants, and others. The Ottoman theocracy prohibited mobility and ascribed occupations; for example, the son of a peasant was forced to become a peasant and artisans could not move from one guild to another even within the same occupation.

The cities were divided into quarters (haara) representing specific guild corporations (taa2efah) and each quarter was self-contained having its mosque, bath, market and gate to be closed at sunset.

These independent “tawa2ef” had no communication with each other and were directly linked to the central government through an appointed spokesman or “shaykh”; the hara had the right to arm itself and consequently, this historical custom to find arms in each house.

Each guild was imposed a limited number of shops and competition was not existent and even changes in design or fashion or shape were prohibited.  Each guild was linked to a Sufi order spreading fatalism or nasib or kismet (fate).

The Ulama restricted religious appointments solely to their children and thus became the wealthiest and most powerful caste because they were allowed to own lands and they didn’t pay taxes. The Ulama interpreted and set up the laws for the Empire.

The Moslem or (jama3a) relegated the Christians and Jews to a lower status (zhemmah) and were to pay the poll-tax (jizyah) and the land-tax (kharaj) and other restrictions.  The other non-Moslem sects were severely and relentlessly persecuted such as the Shiites, Ismaelite, and Druses.

The weakening of the central authority and the aggressive tensions within the guilds between Muslem and Christians and the increased Indian influence (in religion and caste system structure) led to the merging of the two stratification of occupation and religious orders (millet) and thus the present caste system in Lebanon along religious orders.

The Muslims from India were very influential and overwhelming because the Ottoman Empire cut off trade relations with Europe for a long period and because the Ottoman rulers were originated from Central Asia and the various Sufi movements were Indians by source and indoctrination.

The Christian millet demanded that each Christian sect acquires a separate and independent status and the Porte in Istanbul granted that request which led to the recognition of 17 millets; currently we recognize 18 millets in our political structure to include the alawit caste.

Thus, the identity of the individual is based on his religious community in Lebanon; furthermore, citizens vote in districts (kada2) of their base community and not where they actual reside or work and expatriates have not acquired the right to vote overseas.

Consequently, when the European colonialists were given mandate in the Near East the antagonism was not directed at their economic and financial hegemony but primarily directed on the religious dimension; thus, the Christians of the East paid the heaviest toll as the result of such a perception.

The National Pact of 1943, after the independence of Lebanon, divided the spoil among the two main castes, the Christian Maronite and the Muslim Sunni, which were dominant in the cities and controlled the economy of the country; thus, practically ignoring the rights of the other 15 or so castes until civil wars erupted every 20 years to remind the central government that the State is built on caste structure.

The fact is, just after our independence, and in order to keep the demography of the castes in balance the Christians granted citizenship to Armenians and Christian Palestinians but denied it to the Muslim Kurds and Palestinians. Even a plea by Hoss PM to President Sarkis for a single seat in the Parliament representing a secular candidate was rejected.

Essentially, our civil wars were the result of castes, as a whole, trying to move upward to become at a par with the dominant castes in numbers; for example, the Sunny caste in 1958 demanding equal power along the Maronite and seeking the help of the Egyptian Abdul-Nasser; then in 1975 the Sunny caste siding with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in the hope of dominating the Maronite.  In the second half of the civil war, between 1984 and 1989, the Shiites attempted to move upward as a caste.

The internal mobility within caste led to serious changes; for example the political parties of Hezbolla and Amal unseated the traditional Shiite feudal families such as the As3ad, the Hamadeh, the Khalil, and the Osseiran; the Lebanese Forces unseated the like traditional families of Eddeh, Chamoun, and tried to eliminate the Frangieh in the north.

It appears that the Gemayyel family is on the way out after President Amine lost recently the election against a practically unknown candidate; the Armenian caste, which traditionally allied with the Phalanges party, parted company.  The Hariri party (or clan) of Al Mustakbal unseated most of the Sunny traditional leaders in Beirut, and with debatable successes in Tripoli, and Sidon.

The current dilemma is that the Sunny caste is trying to hold to its supremacy against the strongly rising Shii3a caste which is more organized, with self-independent institutions and a military wing that checked the Israeli invasion in June 2006 for 31 days.

The Shi3a caste is homogeneous and managed to unseat feudalism and regroup in just two parties that coordinate their activities and projects.

The Sunny caste would like very much to initiate a third civil war but was turned down by the Maronite caste because it would be the major loser at the end.

Michel Aoun averted the inevitable civil war, sought after by the Sunny caste and headed by the Hariri clan, by ratifying an agreement with Hezbollah; thus, the Maronite caste being divided then no civil war is feasible.

The second card that the Sunny caste is ready to play is to settle the Sunny Palestinian refugees and eventually to surreptitiously granting them the Lebanese citizenship.

Consequently, the Sunny caste is hoping to recapture the numerical imbalance with the Shi3a caste if they succeed in this plan with the support of the USA and the European nations.

The most striking development taking place is that the Maronite caste is in the process of getting freer from a caste structure because the Patriarch and his council of Bishops are no longer implicitly the main political power within the caste; this whole hoopla of referring to Bkerki as the source of their union is just within the explicit caste structure game, but the Maronite Order is losing its hold on the caste at this junction.

Ironically, the Christian Greek Orthodox caste is taking advantage of this situation and doing its best to move upward. The Greek orthodox caste has been basically urban and city dwellers for centuries but never formed a militia, nor did they have powerful feudal lords; their professional elites mostly joined secular political parties.

However, they established a University and the Majlis al-Millah decided to discuss and take concerted action on the current political issues and ordered their three ministers in the government not to abdicate.

I think that the Armenian caste is on the move up after defeating the government’s candidate, President Amine Gemayel, in the Metn election. I believe that the Armenian caste wanted revenge because the Hariri clan sidelines it during the last two elections in Beirut.

The assassinated Rafic Hariri PM game was to divide and weaken the adjoining castes in Beirut in order to have absolute hegemony of the Sunny caste in the Capital which he considered himself the sole leader; and thus he didn’t include the Armenian caste candidates on his electoral lists and preferred to select individual Armenians with no support from their caste.

This system of caste translates integrally into State bureaucracy.  In 1955, competitive examinations for civil service positions was replaced by a pass or fail qualification so that the best applicants would not know that the position was taken by a lesser qualified candidate just to fill the castes quotas.

The most damaging consequences is that the hired civil servant considers that he owns his position to the head of the caste and is not subjected to his superiors in the bureaucratic hierarchy. Thus, every firing of incompetent civil servant is viewed as directed at the caste as a whole!

Once a position is filed then the functionary has to fulfill all the requirements and demands of his caste before catering to the other tasks.  In 1992, after the Taef constitution, a bizarre Maronite Minister of Education hired 300 Maronite employees from his home town and in one sweep; the caste system resolved the problem by allowing each ministry to appoint a similar number of his own caste!

It is known that the Defense Minister Michel Al Murr was not bashful when he refused to enlist Shiites who reached the age of 18 in the compulsory training simply because they would tilt the balance of 50/50 between Christians and Moslems!

The most damaging institution that has prevented any modernization and led to the strengthening of the caste system is the judiciary of the personal status laws.

Each millet or in our case caste follows its own laws concerning birth, death, marriage, divorce, adoption, and inheritance.  Each religious caste has developed its own courts whose verdict the state is obliged to execute.  The castes have become independent legal entities.

The Lebanese state cannot implement reforms in these laws to place them in tune with a modernized society, nor do the religious institutions change the law as the later is considered sacred.  Two failed attempts were made, one in 1936 and the other in 1951, to force the different religious organizations to submit their status laws so that the government can examine them.  In 1952, the Lawyers’ syndicate announced an open strike for civil marriage to be initiated and a civil secular code to replace the various personal status laws.  The strike had to be ended after three months.

The various religious agencies holding both economic and legal power became formidable political institutions that oversee the interest of its members.  Remnants of the Ottoman system the Sunni “mufti” gets his salary from the Lebanese government and all judicial decisions by the Sunnis are published in the “Official Newsletter” issued by the government.

Moreover, this caste system reach an agreement whereby no Christian can inherit from a Muslim, and vice-versa, and thus a non-converted mother cannot bequeath her inheritance to her own children!  Our caste system allows our women to marry foreigners of the same religion but forbid marrying a Lebanese of a different religion.  Historically, a Muslim woman was prohibited from marrying into another religious group but the Christian caste could permit it until the unbalance in the demography restricted it and made it very difficult.

Both internal and external social controls are used in deterring the individual from breaking a specific prescribed behavior. One major factor in the establishment of a caste is the rule of non-exchange of women.

Consequently, the religious orders in Lebanon have acquired the status of caste because the jurisprudence in matter of personal status laws has been relinquished to them by the central government.  Conversion is made extremely difficult among orders by mutual agreement, except for political reasons and within the Christians castes to fill the quota in government offices.

Intermarriages among castes are not common and civil marriages had to be done in Cyprus or elsewhere for the government to accept the marriage according to an existing civil status law enacted during the mandate period.  Generally, males have a much easier allowance to inter marry outside the religious caste.

We, the Lebanese, are denied equality under the law of the land because it does not exists; we are like turtles carrying our baggage over our back and have to be subjected to the traditions of our respective religious castes, a system that is far reaching and follows us wherever we reside.

We are denied freedom to change religion, to change electoral district, to change our names, to work anywhere we chose to and to associate with whatever groups that matches our modern values. We are denied a democratic process based on peaceful transitions from allegiance to caste to allegiance to a rational State that abhors theocracy in any form or shape and release the citizen from his bondage to work toward a modern way of life over all the Lebanese territory.

The way I forecast the next political steps stems from my understanding that:

First, the Sunny caste is the most conservative among the caste and will be the last one to forego its privileges and this system;

Second, the Shiaa caste is the most homogeneous, most numerical, and self sufficient but wary of the combined efforts of the western nations and Israel to destabilize its supremacy and needs reassurances from the Christian castes not subject it to further harassment and displacement; and

Third there might be a tendency for the Christian castes to unite within a process of modernizing the system as the only viable alternative for survival in the future; and

Fourth the realization that, except for the Sunny caste, it would be beneficial for all the concerned parties to unseat Walid Jumblat as the sole feudal lord within the Druze caste.

The Christian Maronite sect in Lebanon has reverted to a closed religion and adopted the caste system since the independence of Lebanon in 1943.  The Maronite sect has agreed on a tacit pact with the non-Christian castes not to allow non-Christian members from the other castes in Lebanon to become Maronite.

I can testify that even Lebanese living overseas were not permitted to change religion: the Maronite Order made it clear that the process of changing religion is not feasible.  This Christian sect has sold its soul to preserve its supremacy as a caste in local politics and ended up losing its supremacy in 1989 at the Taef Conference in Saudi Arabia. (It has been allied to the Zionist movement as it landed in Palestine)

Although the office of President of the Republic, conferred to the Maronite, is no longer that powerful after the Taef Constitution; the current maneuvering is intended to come to an agreement as to the next stages of transforming this caste system and giving the Lebanese citizens a new doze of anesthesia until the plans and logistics for a new round of civil war are completed.

Unfortunately, the secular forces are not coordinating their activities commensurate to the dangerous climate that is being fomented.  The dynamic middle class in Lebanon has fled, for no return, and the existing one is too dispersed, weak and almost totally swallowed by the caste system.

The changes might seem insurmountable, but nothing is impossible with the will for survival.  A grass root movement of all the religious groups and led by the current middle class and syndicates, supported by the dual citizens of Lebanese origin, has to educate the disinherited citizens and to rally the secular forces and parties and to promote a program for a change in our archaic system into modernism.

This movement needs to destroy the barriers against interrelationship to implement the following program:

First, removing the power from the religious hierarchical orders by the following successive steps:

starting by forcing the different religious organizations to submit their status laws so that the government can examine them; then initiating a program to institute civil marriage law and a civil secular code to replace the various personal status laws; and then taxing heavily the religious “waqf” as lucrative financial and economic entities.

Second, a voting system that institutes for two parliaments: the Popular Parliament where a single deputy is selected by the majority of votes for each restricted district (no lists of candidates, please) and the National Parliament by the proportional method and the candidates are selected by the political parties and where women are to acquire a quota of half the numbers in the National Parliament after the second election.  The total of the two parliaments should not exceed 122 deputies.

Third, a decentralization of the government where the re-drawn Mouhafazaat, with access to the sea, might enjoy much wider responsibilities with the appropriate budget to cater for the social and economic well being of their citizens.  Encouraging competition among the Mouhafazats is a must and their corresponding budgets to be commensurate to their profitable investments and efficiency in saving money.

I decided to include the definitions of clan, tribe, sect, feudalism, and community so that the reader might judge on the correct description of Lebanon’s social and political structure.

A Clan or settled Tribe must first be based explicitly on a non linear rule of descent, it then must have a residential unity, and third, it must exhibit actual social integration.  The clan is independent and has a homogeneous system; it is a self-sufficient unit and is not ranked into higher and lower.

The majority of the Lebanese are unable to trace their lineage and the exogamy rule has not been applied and clans have been integrated within the caste system. Thus the tribal theory is inadequate in explaining the complex political, social, and economic picture of Lebanon.

Sects, by definition, welcome a voluntary membership by conversion, as individuals are free to adhere to a specific religious sect once they believe in its tenets. A sect has come to denote a religious conflict society which arises in opposition to an institutional church. The term sect, taken literally, no longer applies to the current Lebanese situation since we don’t have a theocratic state.  Translating sectarianism by “al taa2ifiyah” is misleading.  There used to be sects in our ancient history when the Nestorian opposed the Byzantine institutional church or when the Shiis, Ismailis, and Druze opposed the Sunni institutional state.

Feudalism means that lords have acquired big stretches of land that were passed to the first-born following the law of primogeniture by which the whole real estate of intestate passes solely to the eldest son.  The lords were opposed to the peasants who owned no land.

The Arab East did not develop such a system in any of its historical periods. First, the Koranic law stipulates the division of inheritance and second, during the Ottoman hegemony lands (Iqta3) were retrieved from the favorite officers at death.  Syria and Lebanon witnessed the beginnings of private ownership on a large scale after the middle of the 19th century, due to the Ottoman reforms.

The only group which was allowed to inherit land under Islamic rule was the religious order and later named (waqf) when citizens gave their lands to the order to avoid taxes or trouble.

Thus, historically at least, the feudal theory cannot hold in Lebanon structure. Though, in present Lebanon, I believe that a few families acquired huge pieces of land and sold whole villages to head the list of candidates to the Parliament within a caste system; for example, the Solh, Salam, Jumblat, Skaf, Eddeh and so forth.

Community revolve around three elements that are intimately interconnected: the element of descent which focuses on blood and kinship ties and where “family” life is the general basis or life; then the element of soil exemplified by the village community, and finally the element of occupation centered into guilds, corporations and offices.

Strangers may be accepted and protected as serving members but not easily as agents and representatives of the community. Usually, village communities have not been ranked historically on a scale of higher to lower.  Lebanon did not enter fully the era of communities and furthermore in our villages, communities are ranked leading to a quasi-caste situation.

Class is an open system where individuals are ranked instead of communities and intermarriage is not restricted, and membership is based mostly on economic status and the hierarchy takes the shape of a pyramid, with only an elite or small group at the top but mobility is feasible to moving up through finance and professionalism.

A Saudi Kingdom refugee in France (Saad Hariri) re-landed in Lebanon after being ousted in 2011 as PM

Actually Saad was handed the post of political inheritor (Haririyyeh) of his father Rafic Hariri who was assassinated by USA/Israel in 2004, by Bandar bin Sultan.

Note: re-edited of the post of 2014. “A billionaire refugee in France…”

Officially, the one $billion that the Saudi monarch Abdullah extended to Lebanon was meant to be spent on aiding the Lebanese army to confront all the “terrorists activities” spreading in Lebanon.

Tacitly, ex PM Saad Hariri is to be the money distributor of this huge sum and he returned to Lebanon after 3 years of vacations (as he was ousted) in order to personally supervise the spending of the money.

All this money is basically meant to be spend on the election campaign since the Parliament feels too ashamed to extend its tenure again and again on flimsy excuses of “insecurity conditions”. (Yes, Nabih Berry, head of the Parliament for 22 successive years,  and the Godfather of the militia/mafia “leaders“, refused to hold Parliamentary elections)

He had no political experience and knew nothing of Lebanon social structure: He needed 6 months to learn how to form a government and he spent most of his tenure abroad on multiple vacations, doing personal business deals.

A few months ago, Saudi Kingdom extended 3 $billion to France on the ground of providing the Lebanese army the necessary weapons to confront terrorist factions and the capability to maintain security and the shaky status quo of Lebanon political outdated system.

So far, the 3 $billion have evaporated into deep pockets in both Lebanon and France: financial transparency is not a cornerstone in our system.

Probably, France extended part of that that money to the extremist jihadist factions on our border with Syria.

The Nusra and ISIS have occupied our sprawling town of Ersal for 5 days and committed atrocities and killed scores of our soldiers and kidnapped about 40 soldiers.

Rafic Hariri set up the Ponzi scheme for Lebanon since 1994 by continually borrowing money, accumulating Lebanon sovereign debt from $3 bn to $100 bn and doing his best of destroying any productive activities in industries and agriculture. The basis of Rafic reasoning is that USA will erase Lebanon debt as soon as Lebanon sign a “peace treaty” with Israel.

Jamil Berry posted on FB: 

Mon Opinion

La période que traverse actuellement le Liban est extrêmement brumeuse, et de plus en plus illisible. Laissons nos religions aux vestiaires et réfléchissons.

Qu’avons nous comme données récentes ? Trois milliards Saoudiens évaporés? (Aide à l’armée?)

Hariri qui est rentré sous les caméras au Liban. Avec dans ses valises un milliard … Pour ? Tripoli qui s’agite à nouveau?
Ersaal avec ses vrais martyrs de notre armée Libanaise?

Et ses assaillants salafistes qui trouvent malgré tout des Janus parmi la classe politique libanaise pour minimiser, diluer, et démentir s’ils pouvaient ; nos martyrs.

Il se prépare quelque chose d’extrêmement grave je pense taillé à la seule mesure de la survie de l’état d’Israël.

Israel est plus que jamais conscient du droit du peuple Palestinien à son Etat, appuyé en cela par les rues arabes.

Israel est conscient de l’hostilité croissante des peuples des pays limitrophes face à l’injustice dont il fait preuve surtout avec un Embargo sévère et mortifère contre Gaza, et le morcellement incessant de la Palestine par les implantations juives victimes d’une Shoa économique générée par la crise dans laquelle se débattent leurs pays d’origine ( crise qui ne touche pas que les juifs , sauf que israel se propose comme issue en agitant l’étendard de l’anti sémitisme ambiant)

Rajouter à cela que de gisements immenses de gaz et de pétrole son découverts aux larges du Liban et de Palestine

Le Liban entre désormais dans le club des pays frappés par la malédiction du sous-sol. (Huge reserves of gas and oil known and confirmed even during the French mandated colonial power in 1935) 

Un exemple : l’Algérie a un sous sol infiniment riche , la Tunisie pas . Cette dernière connaitra rapidement accalmie et prospérité, la première se débattra toujours.

D’un point de vue purement sécuritaire, Israel a été contraint de rendre le Liban sud a ses Libanais (et sans condition en May 25, 2000) malgré son eau dont il a besoin. ( le prix devenait prohibitif pour israel. Trop de morts , vu le virus Ezbolla (Hezbollah) qui y sévissait)

L’Irak, La Lybie, La Syrie , étaient des menaces sécuritaires pour israel. Ces pays ont été scientifiquement et méthodiquement mis à terre en 3 temps chacun ( observez les 3 temps d’un dromadaire quand il veut se mettre à terre ) sans pour autant cesser de tambouriner qu’il faut que la résistance libanaise dépose ses armes.

Entretenir la faiblesse des pays arabes et les anémier pour les cent ans à venir, passera désormais d’après les stratèges du pentagone et d israel réunis par la semence d’une guerre Suchi ( Sunnites / Chiites) et elle commence à donner ses fruits mortifères. Les printemps se suivent mais ne se ressemblent pas.

Le Liban ”is different ” . Devenu très anglophone, très peu francophone, la France (sa mère adoptive ) en grande difficulté économique ne viendra plus vraiment à son secours car :

1/ Il s’est tourné vers les USA
2/ la France est un pays matérialiste, Laïc. Défendre la chrétienté, lui est vraiment passé de mode.

La guerre sunnite / chiite a déjà commencé dans la région, et je suis intimement convaincu que ces stratèges de l’apocalypse nous diront bientôt qu’il ne faut pas mettre tous les salafistes dans le même sac

Il y aura les bons salafistes: ceux qui se battront contre le Ezbollah , et les mauvais salafistes ceux qui se battront contre l’armée libanaise (sic!)

Plus que jamais au Liban, les politiciens Libanais ne commandent plus sur rien et n’ont de l’autorité que dans la mesure où ils ne l’exercent pas.

Bientôt , même une chatte au Liban, ne reconnaîtra plus ses chatons.

Ah les Chrétiens … J’allais vous oublier : je ne vous pense pas les vrais visés dans l’apocalypse annoncée, vous serez soit des victiles collatérales, soit des victiles de diversion. Dans les deux cas, vous aurez vos ” couloirs humanitaires ”

Déjà que le Liban est couloir en soi . Couloirs dans un couloir : rien de mieux pour couler notre pays.

( Jamil BERRY )

What Baha2 Hariri, Saad Hariri’s eldest brother, confessed of the tight connections among Saudi secret services, Bandar bin Sultan and Walid Jumblat…
Lebanon National Debt: A rough computation?

Note: this article was published in 2013 and nothing changed but the amount of debt that ballooned from barely $9 bn in 1993 to $90 bn (or 130% of Lebanon GDP. Same as in Greece). A third of the budget goes to repaying the interset on the debt

As clear as water….thank you George Sabat !
The story of the Lebanese National debt is simple to tell to the uninitiated citizen who cannot understand how a small country like Lebanon could have built a $60 billion (reached 90 this year of 2018) debt in the short space of 20 years.
It starts with an initial budget deficit of some $2 billion of Lebanese Budget in 1993 to which one ought to add the entire civil war reconstruction cost that amounted to some $7 billion as declared officially and detailed by the Authorities in their famous book: “Rebuilding Lebanon”.
From this initial debt of some $9 billion that has never been repaid, one ought to add the accumulated compound interest at the end of every year.
Of course the table shown below is not the authentic one that appears in the Government Accounts but, for the uninitiated, it explains clearly enough how this Debt has grown from an initial amount of nine billion US dollars in 1993 to reach today over sixty billion US dollars.
The Authorities will never explain to you such matters so simply.
They will use a lot of complicated and obscure terms and definitions to keep you in the dark over a matter which is, after all, frighteningly simple.
The people of Lebanon, represented by their government (that is you and me and four and a half million other Lebanese citizens) borrowed in 1993 some two billion US dollars, then another seven billion US dollars to pay for the reconstruction.
The rest, or some $53.5 billion is the amount of interest paid to bankers and foreign depositors over the past twenty years. That’s all folks.
Note 1: The late Rafic Hariri PM clan (known as the Future movement, Al Moustakbal) pread the word to its close friends to deposit their wealth at 18% interest rate and each one of them reaped millions in 3 years.
Most of the borrowed money were distributed to the militia/mafia leaders who kept running the country after the war. No political party won the war, but the militia leaders stayed in power and were absolved of all the killing and mischief against humanity they committed during the war
Note 2: After the assassination of Rafic Hariri in 2004, his wealth amounted to $14 bn  (from barely $2 bn when he first became Prime Minister with the total support of the Syrian regime of Hafez and then his son Bashar Assad) and his family members paid just a single million as taxes to the government run by his protegee’ Fouad Seniora PM
Note 3: It is common knowledge that Rafic gave his first wife to the Saudi Monarch Fahd to marry.
Note 4: Lebanon has since been begging borrowed money for no economic reasons, and the loaners didn’t mind to raise Lebanon national debt to $90 bn (130% of its GDP). Obviously, those loans are meant to take Lebanon hostage for later deals related to regional situation and giving the Palestinian refugees the nationality.
Note 5: More than a third of the population are in the public sector and most of them don’t even show up to work and receive another third of the budget.

Old Cosmopolitan Beirut: Before Saudi and Gulf Emirates Real Estates Developers landed

How the Hariri clan (Starting with late Rafic Hariri PM) destroyed Beirut heritage

A string of illegal robbery of Prime Real Estates properties

Those rich emirs wanted a comfortable stay in Beirut that feel very capitalist and a view on the sea.

So their representative in Lebanon, late Rafic Hariri PM, bribed and forced illegal laws to capture Downtown Beirut for pennies and instituted the Solidaire company.

Not only Hariri and his partners in the triumvirate (Nabih Berry and Walid Jumblat) occupied the Downtown but they dumped the sea and created many acres of new prime land.

The proprietors of prime land were given shares. The land is worth over $10 billion, but the shares never increased a dime over the last 30 years. The term of the company was to end 10 years ago, but it was extended another 10 years by the same triumvirate.

Currently, Beirut Downtown is as dead as the desert in Saudi Arabia.

The citizens were chased out from the premises by making the shops and the items too expensive for paying a visit to this cosmopolitan Capital.

Before 1975, Beirut was the hub for all the Lebanese who could find the best quality merchandize at affordable prices in its old souks.

The souks have been razed and demolished to erect skyscrapers that are empty.

Even the Emirs failed to visit Lebanon. Worse, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates are warning their people Not to spend their vacation in Beirut.

Joseph Dergham's photo.
'Beirut Martyrs Square in 1965'
'Beirut Martyrs Square in 2015'

Maroun Ingeatostop destroying your heritage!

Beirut Martyrs Square in 1965 :

Green spaces, Trams, Bus & Taxi Stops, Traditional houses, Tonzim modoni…

All this was illegally destroyed by a well known private company

And replaced by illegal parkings, buildings and water front.

The Zeitouny Bay, Dalieh, Raouche, Ras Beirut, Downtown, the ancient famous souks…

Restore Beirut to whom it belongs!

Youssef Mohammad Al Moussawi's photo.


This implicit new Constitution in Lebanon

Militia Leaders with veto power

Many believe that when tensions and conflicts in a political system include mechanisms for a political mediation to vent out violent resentments, then adopting violent means is no longer necessary.

In working democratic systems, people marching for a demand is a good enough opportunity for the system to listen carefully to the request of the people.

The people who felt this urge to get out to the streets and demonstrate must have kept their latent violent feeling under check for too long, and it is a good policy to tend to the voices of the demonstrators. A hundred demonstrators suffice for the mediation process to get activated and serious negotiation taking place.

The marching phenomena in Lebanon is evidence that one or several main leaders are critical of current politics and are sending the proper message to the government.

When Lebanon cease marching and demonstrating, it is an indication that the leaders are negotiating and trying to reach a consensus. Thus, demonstrating in Lebanon gives the cue that a few main leaders are not satisfied with their quota in the loot for public funds.

The main problem in Lebanon is that the institutional framework that was developed over 70 years, with endless patching up sections added to it, most of it implicit or verbal, is a process of consensus among the main ethnic-religious schisms and feudal tribes who are considered to constitute the fabric of this patched up society.

The constitution was frequently a scapegoat or smokescreen to pass policies against the interest of the common people. The constitution is implicitly admitted to be broken at wish and temporary laws replacing the constitution until the original constitution is forgotten and no longer taken seriously.

Essentially, the current implicit “reformed constitution” is to give veto power to about 5 leaders on “critical matters” that keep changing.

Each religious sect has appointed civil political leaders to represent its interest, in addition to the religious clerics. When a major religious sect ends up with more than one powerful civil leaders (militia), then a civil war is expected within the sect until a resolution is found.

For example, in the Christian religious sects many leaders battled for prominence, and they all failed after the war ended. Aoun found political asylum in France and Jeaja was put in prison for 11 years.

After the Syrian troops vacated Lebanon in 2005, Aoun returned and Jeaja was set free for political purpose in order to counter the Aoun ascendance.

The current battle for leadership is among Gen, Michel Aoun (Tayyar movement), Samir Ja3ja (Lebanese Forces), Suleiman Frangieh in the northern part, and to a lesser extent the Phalange party represented by Amine Gemayyel.

The Shiaa Muslim sect battled between Amal militia represented by current Parliament head Nabih Berry and Hezbollah.

Berry was Syria Man and still is and has become the broker of politicians. Amal and Hezbollah reached a consensus on dividing the roles and currently form the most cohesive and powerful section in Lebanon’s politics, in number, in firepower and organization.

The Sunni Muslim sect battled among many leaders and the assassination of scores of them until late Rafic Hariri purchased the sole leadership with Saudi funding.

After the assassination of Rafic in 2005, the Sunnis tried to affiliate and bring back old leaders and assemble around their local leaders.  Currently, Saad Hariri  (son of Rafic and the chief of Future movement or Mustakbal, mostly in absentia, navigating between Paris and Saudi Arabia) is being imposed upon the Sunnis as their leader with the same Saudi funding and political pressures.

The Druze  sect managed to get more political clout that their number represents because they allied behind a single leader Walid Jumblat who inherited the leadership from his late assassinated father Kamal Jumblat.

The current 5 leaders were generated during the lengthy civil war (1975-89) and several of them inherited their fathers’ leadership.

Basically, the current veto power holders are: Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblat , Michel Aoun , Samir Ja3ja, and Nabih Berry (voicing the desires and positions of Hezbollah).

These leaders split the spoil of public funds and distribute the loot among their subordinate. Kind of Lebanon decided in the last decade not to submit an official budget for the Parliament to vote on. Every month, the main political leaders get their cuts handed over through the ministries in the government that they secured through months of haggling before a government is formed.

The Parliamentary system failed to elect a new President to the Republic for 11 months now.

The former president Michel Suleiman had appointed 3 ministers in the current government as his quota in the spoil, though he has no deputies and has no political party. Ironically, he is still meeting regularly with these ministers, flaunting all decent constitutional customs.

The former President was elected with Syria blessing. When Syria got in trouble, he shifted allegiance to the Saudi Arabia block of regional alliances in order to receive his share of the loot.

It is understandable in this mercantile State: The more powerful Iranian regional block has not the financial means or international clout to cover the President financial exigencies and to travel the world as an acceptable and honored president.

And why no President is about to be elected?

We have no legitimate parliament. and the government is working under a consensus that all the ministers have to agree on any decree, even the most trivial of decisions.

And security received a universal tacit approval that no major disturbances are to take place in the time being. For executing this tacit security deal, the political parties got the orders to meet and start the negotiation processes, two at a time.

A so the nemesis of Hezbollah and the Future are meeting at Nabih Berry palace. And the historic enemies of Aoun and Jeaja are also meeting. And nobody believe that any of these duo negotiations will approach and discuss the main critical divergences.

Protracted negotiations just to give the impression that a resolution could become possible once the green light has been received: kind of putting the final editing touch to the deals before the order is dispatched.

Hapless, tiny and impoverished Lebanon happened to have this red line crossing its land: The regional powers divide between the Saudi Arabia block and Iran block. And these two regional blocks are waiting for the USA and Russia to reach a negotiated settlement over Ukraine, and particularly, the fate of Mariopol, a tiny port city in the Ukraine.

Even the signing of nuclear deal with Iran, which has been finalized, is postponed until the USA and Russia agree on a resolution.

And the hapless Lebanese are being caught between bears, wolves, eagles and jackasses.

Note: Turkey got out of its cocoon during the Arab Spring revolutions and got involved heavily in supporting the various national Moslem Brotherhood movements. The Arab States and Iran managed to return Turkey back to its cocoon and clip its wings as it was getting immersed in the Arab World.

In reaction and retaliation, Turkey of Erdogan directly supported all the extremist Sunni terrorist movements such as ISIS and the Nusra Front in Syria and Iraq. Turkey is the main entry point for all the extremists willing to join the terrorists in Syria and Iraq, and Turkey has dispatched 10,000 of its citizen to join the fray.

Turkey wants its piece of the cake in the regional power tug of war before relinquishing its support to the terrorist movements.


Israel Filka Site: Fouad Seniora, Lebanon former PM, an Israeli Spy…?
Hezbollah Secretary General, Hassan Nasr Allah gave an extensive interview to the channel Al Mayadeen, a day before the car bombing of Bir Al Abed that harvested 26 killed and over 270 injured.
In that interview, corresponding to the anniversary of the cease fire of Israel preemptive war on Lebanon in 2006, and which lasted 33 day, Nasr Allah explained:
“On the 30th day of the war, Israel dropped all its preconditions in order to reach a UN resolution for a cease fire. The US and Israel dropped their conditions for the demilitarization of Hezbollah, the assembling of a 15,000 UN peace corps before retreating, or the return of the 400,000 Lebanese refugees to their villages and towns in the south… The return of the two kidnapped Israeli soldiers were to be dealt with in later swap negotiations for prisoners….
The problem was that the UN was waiting for the response of the Lebanese government agreement to the resolution for it to take effect.
Fouad Muhammad Seniora was the PM and he delayed the response for two days: He was an even more of a hardliner than Israel and US combined, and wanted that Hezbollah hands over its weapons to the Lebanese army, even knives, before he agrees to Resolution 1701.
What happened in the following two days?
1. Israel air bombed haphazardly the area of Dahiya, demolishing buildings in order to inflict maximum casualties among the civilians.
2. Israel demanded cluster bombs, and British Tony Blair PM obliged by shipping the bombs from a Scottish military depot. Israel spread 4 million tiny bombs in the south with the objective of delaying the return of the Lebanese to the south
Most Lebanese strongly suspected, if not convinced that Seniora was a US agent, but Israel Filka Site dropped this bombshell on August 2013: “Seniora has been an Israeli spy since 1974, and participated in the assassination of his boss Rafic Hariri PM in 2005…”
فؤاد السنيورة
The spy Fouad Seniora.
Israel Filka Site revealed that Israel Military censured an article by Aaron Goldbird (former Mossad agent) in the daily Haaretz that mentioned Lebanon former Fouad Seniora PM to be an Israeli spy since 1974.
Israel Filka Site pointed out in its report Bleu Farcom the following:
1. Commander Goldbird worked for the Mossad from 1970 to 1989 and was the “handler” of Seniora and met with him three time during Lebanon civil war.
2. After Goldbird retirement, Israel General Prosecutor ordered him never to leave Israel.
3. The story of how Seniora was enlisted in the Mossad was released to the Israeli dailies by Gelaad Levine, Goldbird’s lawyer.
4. Goldbird was responsible for training and following up on the foreign agents in Lebanon and he receive a file called Nour
5. Goldbird traveled to Beirut under a faked French  passport (#84/33455) and rented a furnished apartment in the resort town of Aley.
6. Goldbird called Nour, who was Fouad Mohammad Seniora from Saida, and trained him on communication facilities, safe connection, techniques for gathering pieces of intelligence, and confusing the investigators… All these training were conducted in 1974
7.  Goldbird met Seniora again in Tel Aviv in late 1976, Seniora arrived via Greece
8.  He met with Seniora again in Paris
9. And a third time in 1977 using a faked Jordanian passport.
10. Every time Seniora met with Goldbird, he would carry Lebanese sweet in the name of his family, claiming to be handmade by himself
11. Goldbird was dumbfounded as he watched Seniora on TV acting as Prime Minister to Lebanon.
12. Seniora offered Israel very important pieces of intelligence before and after he became Prime minister.
13. During Israel preemptive war on Lebanon in 2006, Seniora was Prime Minister and aided Israel far more than anyone could, particularly during his many meetings with the US administration personalities, journalists and his steadfast position against Hezbollah military power…
14. Professor Eliahu Penysson claims that it was Seniora who gave the assassins of his master Rafic Hariri the route that Hariri would be taking from the parliament
15. Seniora rewarded Hariri’s personal security man Wissam Hassan, who failed to show up the day of the assassination, by appointing him chief of the internal intelligence section, which was heavily funded and closely supported by the US, France, England and many Arab governments.
Note 1: The day the cease fire officially took effect, the Lebanese refugees returned on the same day and lived in tents for months and worked their lands. They did not wait for anyone to give them permission to return and crossed rivers and makeshift bridges on feet.  The cluster bombs are still killing and injuring Lebanese civilians since 2006, and the de-mining project is not over yet, for lack of funding.
Note 2: Seniora worked closely with Israel and allowed Israel to establish dozen of “safe houses” and weapon depots in Beirut till 2008.  He ordered that Hezbollah relinquish connecting fixed land lines that cannot be easily be monitored. Hezbollah overran all these safe houses, called private security services and Seniora was ousted as PM.
Note 3: The Algerian daily Al Shouruk published that Seniora code name was Nour with a file # 345548 and it was Seniora who forwarded to the Israeli the schedule and route of Rafic Hariri movements when Hariri was assassinated by a violent car explosion on February 1975. Seniora visited Israel via Greece and met his Israeli agents in the USA and Europe…
 هام وخاص بصحيفة الشروق الجزائريّة نتمنى نشره يا جماهير المقاومة الكرام : فؤاد محمد السنيورة , عميل الموساد الاسرائيلي منذ عام 1974 , نشرت صحيفة الشروق الجزائرية تقريراً مهماً وخطيراً , وجاء في التقرير أن الضابط الاسرائيلي أهارون غولدبرغ , جند العميل الاسرائيلي , المدعو ” نـور ” في الملف رقم 345548 , وكان ذلك في العام 1974 , ويشير الملف الى الاسم الحقيقي للعميل الموسادي نور , وهو : فؤاد محمد السنيورة , رئيس وزراء لبنان الأسبق ,ويشير التقرير بوض…وح , الى ان العميل نور هو من كشف للاسرائيليين , عن تحركات الشهيد رفيق الحريري من البرلمان الى منزله , ويتهمه التقرير بالضلوع في عملية اغتيال الشهيد الحريري , وعملية اغتيال الضابط اللبناني في فرع المعلومات , وسام عيد , وقريبا ستكتشف الصحيفة أيضا ان السنيورة , له علاقة مباشرة باغتيال وسام الحسن ,ويضيف التقرير عن اجتماعات كثيرة وعديدة , تمت بين الاسرائيليين والسنيورة , في دول اوروبية وأمريكية , حتى ان التقرير يشير الى دخول السنيورة الى اسرائيل عن طريق اليونان ,هذا هو فؤاد محمد السنيورة , ” العميل الاسرائيلي نور “فؤاد السنيورة , الذي كانت دموعه في حرب تموز نتيجة الفشل , لعدم تمكن العميل نور , من اغتيال سماحة السيد نصرالله , أو لفشله بكشف مكان اقامة السيد نصرالله في الحرب مما سبب له الكثير من الضغوطات سياسيّا وعسكريّا بعد الكم الكبير لخسائر جيش العدو الاسرائيلي في الجنوب اللبناني براً وبحراً وجواً .See More

Note 4:  I Translated the Filka Report from Arabic

• عمل المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد بجهاز الموساد الإسرائيلي خلال الفترة 1970- 1989, تمكن المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد عبر طرق ثلاث من القيام بتجنيد فؤاد السنيورة الذي يتولى حالياً منصب رئيس الوزراء اللبناني.
• بعد تسريح المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد، فرض النائب العام الإسرائيلي عليه شرط عدم الخروج من إسرائيل.
• رواية تجنيد فؤاد السنيورة لدى الموساد الإسرائيلي تم تسريبها للصحافة عبر جلعاد لافيني، محامي الدفاع عن المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد.
– تفاصيل تجنيد الموساد للسنيورة: أبرز تسريبات المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد، صرح المحامي جلعاد لافيني، بأن موكله المقدم غولد بيرد ضابط الموساد السابق، كان خلال فترة عمله مسؤولاً عن تدريب ومتابعة العاملين في جهاز المخابرات الخارجي الإسرائيلي (الموساد) في لبنان، وقد تسلم آنذاك ملفاً يحمل اسم (نور)، ورقماً خاصاً به، وذلك من أجل القيام بالمتابعة والتدريب.
انتقل المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد إلى العاصمة اللبنانية بيروت عبر مطار باريس بجواز سفر فرنسي مزور (84/33455) وبعد وصوله إلى بيروت حجز لنفسه شقة مفروشة في منتزه عاليه بجبل لبنان، بعد ذلك اتصل بالعميل (نور) والذي اتضح أن اسمه الحقيقي هو فؤاد محمد السنيورة من مدينة صيدا.
وأشرف المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد على تدريب العميل (نور) على وسائل الاتصال والمراسلة الآمنة، وتقنية الجمع الاستخباري للمعلومات، وتضليل المحققين وكان ذلك في عام 1974م.
بعد ذلك، أشار المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد بأنه قابل العميل (نور) عدة مرات:
– المرة الأولى في إسرائيل عندما نقله الموساد الإسرائيلي سراً من اليونان إلى تل أبيب وكان ذلك في أواخر عام 1976.
– المرة الثانية في باريس.
– المرة الثالثة واستخدم فيها جواز سفر أردني مزور وكانت في عام 1977.
اللقاءات الثلاثة بين المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد كانت تهدف إلى:
• تقديم المزيد من التدريب
• متابعة تطور العميل (نور)
وأفاد المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد، بأنه شاهد فؤاد محمد السنيورة على شاشة التلفزيون، وعرف فوراً أن العميل (نور) قد استطاع أن يتغلغل بنجاح ويصل إلى منصب رئيس الوزراء اللبناني.
وقال المقدم أهارون ، بأنه يتذكر عندما كان (نور) يحضر إليه على الدوام، حاملاً بيده هدايا الحلوى اللبنانية الشهيرة باسم “عائلته” وكان يؤكد لمعلمه المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد بأن هذه الحلوى من صنع يده.
هدد المقدم أهارون غولد بيرد الحكومة الإسرائيلية قائلاً بأنه حالياً “لن يستمر –في كشف المزيد- وسيتوقف عند حدود كشف رئيس الوزراء اللبناني الحالي فؤاد محمد السنيورة الذي يعمل مجنداً لصالح دولة إسرائيل منذ عشرات السنوات.
كذلك أشار المقدم أهارون بأن المجند فؤاد محمد السنيورة , والذي أشرف على تدريبه، قد قدم خدمات لصالح إسرائيل بما يفوق قدرة أي مجند إسرائيلي على تقديمها، ويتمثل أبرز هذه الخدمات في الآتي:
• ما فعله علناً خلال حرب لبنان الثانية
[1]• ما فعله بعد الحرب من لقاءات شبه علنية في واشنطن وبيروت مع صحفيين وضباط ودبلوماسيين ووزراء إسرائيليين
[2] • ما فعله من وقوفه ضد حزب الله وقائده السيد حسن نصر الله وعموماً، بالنسبة لقرائنا الذين يريدون متابعة المزيد حول ملف “مجند الموساد (نور) 0 نقلا عن صحيفة الشروق اليومي الجزائرية
وقد نشر موقع “فيلكا إسرائيل” تقريراً أعده البروفيسور إيلياهو بنيسمون , المعروف بمعاداته للكيان الصهيوني ودعمه للفلسطينيين , بنيسمون نقل هو الآخر عن غولد برغ تورط السنيورة في مقتل رئيس الحكومة اللبنانية رفيق الحريري , مشيراً بالقول:
كانت نقطة أساسية من جهود كشف قضية مقتل الحريري تقوم على محاولة معرفة من هو الشخص المقرب منه و مشيراً إلى السنيورة , الذي أعلم القتلة بخط سير موكبه , ومن هو الذي أعطى القتلة إشارة توجه من البرلمان إلى منزله ساعة الاغتيال ؟؟ , بعض الملاحظين اتهم مسؤول أمنه السابق الذي لم يغب عن الموكب إلا يوم الاغتيال , والمعروف باسم وسام الحسن و والذي كوفئ من قبل فؤاد السنيورة على تقصيره في حماية سيده رفيق الحريري بأن عينه مسؤولاً عن أكبر جهاز أمن في لبنان , وهو فرع المعلومات الذي دعمته وقوته ومولته ودربته أمريكا وفرنسا وبريطانيا وعدة دول عربية.

Is Lebanon ripe for another civil war round? Politically yes, militarily not yet…

You may first read

The strongest indicator for a coming civil war, in a confessional political structure, is when every religious sect is divided on its leading political representatives. A civil war is the preferred mechanism to unite the clergy and various warlords around a unique leader to represent the religious sect…

The previous civil war (1975-91) was mainly internal wars within each religious sect for political hegemony over the entire sect, representing its confessional rights and speaking in its name.

The internal war in Lebanon started as a mass civil disobedience against a political system that refused to reform…Before it transformed into a major and lengthy civil war…

The previous civil war ended when almost all religious sects resolving their internal political struggles and were ready to talk with the other religious sects as a unified front.

Only the Christian Maronite sect was still politically divided on its leadership and kept resuming the armed confrontation while the other sects were “reforming the Constitutions” in Taef (Saudi Arabia) and dividing up the political power, appointing the public servants in the administration, and budget…

After the Taef agreement, the Moslem Shia sect elected Nabih Berri (Chairman of the Chamber of Deputies) to be their political representative within this confessional structure, though Hezbollah had secured the military power behind the sect and the unifying force for the sect.

Berri was the main Syrian representative (agent and still is) in Lebanon, while Hezbollah the representative of Iran’s ideological reflection.

Rafic Hariri, was the Sunni leader and the representative of Saudi Arabia political ideological and interests in Lebanon.

During the Syrian mandate of Lebanon up to 2005, Rafic was forbidden to visit Tripoli and the norther part of Lebanon, predominantly Sunnis. After Rafic assassination and the withdrawal of the Syrian troops, the Mustakbal movement (the Hariri clan party) managed to gain an aura in the north, not commensurate to the promises it failed to deliver during election periods…

The Maronite had no exclusive powerful political leader, and was represented by the assigned and unknown President of the Republic Hrawi (put forward by Syria Hafez Assad). The General of the army and Prime Minister Michel Aoun was forced into exile to France for 15 years. Samir Geaja (head of the militia Lebanese Forces) was sent to jail for 11 years…

Samir Geaja was the only militia warlord to be incarcerated. All the other warlords enjoyed appointments as ministers and deputies after the war…and were allocated secret “money boxes” to be spent on their associates and fattening their stashed away finances…

Geaja can be considered the worst political and military warlord failure for the duration of the war: He never won a war and failed to reap any political advantage…

The emerging front triumvirate of Berri, Hariri, and the President of the Republic divided up the treasury of the State and allocated the budget into personal Financial Boxes to spend on their respective regions…and a sizable portion of the budget and commercial dealing diverted to the coffers of the Syrian regime and their oligarchs

The Druze leader Walid Jumblat was allocated the “Displaced Box” of the Christians who fled the Shouf district during the war and who never returned, not yet…

Nabih Berri was allocated the “South Box” in order to reconstruct the southern districts…

Rafic Hariri was allocated the “Calamity Box” to spend on the reconstruction of Beirut and Saida.  This Box circumvented half a dozen ministries and took over every project meant to upgrade Lebanon infrastructure.  For example:

The airport received the name of Rafic Hariri. The main public hospital got the name of Rafic Hariri, the center of Beirut was reconstructed under the Solidere company owned by Rafic Hariri, the trash collection and disposal was run by a company owned by Rafic Hariri “Suklene”, the two mobile phone companies were owned by Rafic Hariri and Nagib Mikati (current prime minister)….

The successive Presidents of the Republic, seemingly representing the interest of the Christians and the Maronite in particular, have been mostly impotent in turning the tide into “fairer” representation of the Christians in the public administration…and the two main Maronite parties “The Lebanese Forces” of Samir Geaja and the “Tayyar of reform and change” of Michel Aoun were unable to reaching a unifying consensus…

Lebanon is ripe politically for another civil war round:

1. Nabih Berri, the main Syria Man, is scrambling to keep a political presence after the Assad regime of Syria. All the activities of Berri is to prove that he is the master mediator among the factions to maintaining the archaic system of Lebanon. Berri knows that without Syria’s support he cannot hope for more than being elected a simple deputy in 2013…

Mikati PM is the front of the Syrian regime, and basically obeying to Berri decisions on critical issues…Consequently, Berri has reduced this government to total impotency and the ridicule of the people because he needs to please all the confessional powers…

2. Hezbollah is re-organizing in order to maintain its status as the main Iranian stronghold in the region and will inevitably be forced to taking the front scene as the political representative of the Shia sect…

3. The Sunni sect that is mainly represented by the Mustakbal movement (The Future) of the Hariri clan is losing credibility because:

First, this movement is still working to privatize the public institutions in order to own them for cheap,

Second, this movement sided with the US and Israel when Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006 against the resistance of Hezbollah,

Third, this movement proved not to care about its election promises to the poorer districts, and failed the expectations of the Sunni people again and again…Their investments were placed in Beirut, and mostly in Real Estates…and ruined the electricity and water infrastructures

Many other Sunni “leaders” are emerging to contest the hegemony of the Mustakbal, and partially succeeding in restricted localities…

The Maronites are still divided.

The main political power of the Tayyar of Michel Aoun has over 30 deputies out of 120, and 10 ministers out of 30. And the Tayyar has been the target of all the confessional parties in order to fail its programs and projects in the government and in the Parliament…

Even the Greek Orthodox Christian sect is divided and unable to reach any consensus on the political figures to representing its interest as a unified front…

Politically, Lebanon is ripe for another round of civil war, and the troubles in Syria in the last 16 months are the main catalysts for this dangerous divisions in the Lebanese confessional fabric.

Militarily, Lebanon is stable.

The army and Hezbollah are the main military powers and can foil any armed uprising.

For this reason, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the US have been fomenting “discourses” meant to weaken the credibility of the army as the unifying institution for all the Lebanese.

The Tayyar (movement of Michel Aoun) reacted vigorously and is taking to the street demanding firm actions by the government against any actions and speeches defaming the army and weakening the moral of the officers and soldiers…

Hezbollah is confident of his representation of the Shia in the districts and regions of Shia majority, but is being aware that engaging in a second civil war in order to catapult the Shia as the main power broker in Lebanon will sap its reduced resources, divert its focus on Israel threats, and encourage Israel (the US) to wage a 7th preemptive war on Lebanon…

Germany and Israel executed the assassination of Rafic Hariri

A Russian daily described, a couple of days ago, another version of the assassination of Rafic Hariri.  The story says that Germany had invented, 5 years before the assassination of Hariri, a lethal small missile (about 10 cm long) with slightly enriched plutonium that was used by an Israeli drone that dropped it on the location of the murder with a waiting van packed with explosives.

The devastating one-directional efficiency of the weapon contradicted the theory of a van exploding with any amount of explosives.  The pure gold watch of Hariri melted while part of his body was not burned.  All the parked cars were carbonized instantly and this phenomenon could not be accounted by any known high explosive devices.

Germany sent over immediately to Lebanon two German investigators to cover up the indices and evidences in the crime scene and to directing the accusation toward Syria.  One of them is the infamous Mehlis who was discarded from the International Tribunal team just after the four Lebanese highest security officials were incarcerated for four years without charges.

The US and France gave the order to assassinate Hariri, with utmost prejudice, as the best and most effective way to forcing the Syrian army to retreating quickly from Lebanon.  Plans and programs for discrediting Syria and the Lebanese government were prepared way in advance, in details and applied right after the assassination.

Lebanon is one of the the main hotbeds of all the superpower secret agencies: the ambassadors assigned to Lebanon are the highest paid for that reason.  The amount of intelligence collected by the superpowers are far more precise and accurate than all the Lebanese institutions could master.

None of the superpower intelligence agencies cooperated with the International Tribunal for information and intelligence sharing. The International Tribunal for Lebanon specifically re-iterated the non cooperation of the US, France,England, Germany, and Israel.

After 5 years of useless work with no substantial evidences to indicting any serious party, and after a dozen judges and investigators resigned their fruitless jobs in this tribunal, Belmare is getting ready, pressured by the US, to issuing a preliminary indictment on four members of Hezbollah.

The US and Israel leaked their identical versions of the story to German and French dailies (Der Spiegel and Le Figaro), and the public Canadian TV channel showed a movie in two parts putting together the US version  Belmare insists that the leaks didn’t emanate from the Tribunal and that it is not politicized.

Truth is, Wikileaks has divulged documents proving that Belmare met with Michelle Sisson, US Ambassador to Lebanon, several times before deciding on any issue:  Belmare is a professional public servant who does need to be ordered by high level officials in the US: an ambassador would suffice.

Hezbollah has been launching preemptive media blitzkrieg for the last 6 months warning of the consequences of pointing the fingers toward members of the party. Hezbollah has presented video pictures showing Israeli drones taking pictures at the crime of the scene from different angles and for many times before the assassination.

The world community dealing with communication has acknowledged that Israel has hijacked all Lebanon communication lines and is capable of infiltrating any information.

Hezbollah position and most of the opposition Lebanese political parties and over 70% of the citizens are convinced that the Tribunal is used as a political weapon to keeping Lebanon under UN mandated power.  Hezbollah is urging the political factions and the government to taking this volatile issue into their hands and warding off foreign meddling in our internal affairs.

So far, the leading oligarchic leaders are unable to resist the US  and Western power pressures and letting the Lebanese suffer another potential civil war.

With the total US backing and support, Israel in putting the last touch to another major incursion into Lebanon, the seventh.  The timing of the preliminary indictment is waiting for the green light from the US.  If the political structure in Lebanon is unable to demonstrating self-autonomy in this critical period then, Lebanon shaky independence will be shelved for an indeterminate period and Lebanon would be classified as a State under UN mandated power.

The oligarchic leaders in Lebanon wouldn’t care one way or another:  They consider that they have rented a prime Real Estate property along with its slaves (Lebanese citizens) for a period of 99 years to exploit to the hilt.

The opposition coalition, backed by 70% of the population with over 45% under poverty line, beg to differ.  The next civil war will be quick and with a definite victor this time around.

The oligarchic leaders will not reap any advantages from any upheaval this time around:  They will be rounded up by the people who has been humiliated and abused for over 60 years and put to trial as traitors to the people.

Note:  You may read my previous articles on that subject

This month, we have been witnessing in Lebanon a resurgence in the debates relative to the International Court pertaining to the assassination of Rafiq Hariri.  Since its constitution in 2005 and funding, mainly by the Lebanese government, Lebanon gets in turmoil, every six months or less, concerning leakage of intelligence in the Court proceedings.  So far, over a dozen Court investigators and judges have resigned to “greener pastures”.  It sounds that these experts in the International Court have realized that they are working on a dud case.

In one of its many reports the International Court devulged that the USA, France, Saudi Arabia, and Israel refused to cooperate with intelligence.  In addition to Syria, Egypt, and Iran the previous four States have the most extensive intelligence networks in Lebanon. Principally, the main States such as the USA, France, Germany, Russia, and Israel have not cooperated with the necessary information in this case and the Court ended up with knowledge of the mechanism of the assassination but no proof relative to the initiators (decision makers) of the assassination and the planners.

It is well-known that Embassadors to Lebanon are the highest paid diplomats on earth:  The rational is that Lebanon is the main turnpike for intelligence gathering in the Middle East for the superpower States and the regional Arab States in addition to Iran, and lately, Turkey.

Before the assassination of Hariri, every intelligence agency knew that a serious operation on Hariri is planned and a few superpower States knew exactly the timing and they were all ready with their media coverage and detailed operational maneuvers after the assassination.  If Hezbollah was monitoring the events then, it is in his rights since Bush Jr and Israel wanted to eradicate this resistance force by all means.  The US, Israel, and the so-called “moderate” Arab States (of monarchs and dictators) have failed three times so far to weaken the military force of Hezbollah:  Once, after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri and the subsequent five years of consistent pressures by the Lebanese government of Seniora PM on Hezbollah to desist for military power then, after the failed July war 2006 by Israel that lasted 33 days, and the third time in trying to dismantling Hezbollah’s hard-wired communication and the subsequent closing down of Israeli agencies in Beirut in 2008.

The latest troubles are leaks from Israel that the International Court is about to indict members of Hezbollah by September; added to military threats by Israel of a major war on Lebanon by the begining of autumn.  This month, the Secretary general of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasr Allah has delivered three public speeches and two are in the pipelines.  Nasr Allah is claiming that the Court has been politized from its inception and the unique purpose of this Court is to put pressures on Hezbollah until it “joins” the world community as just a moderate political force in Lebanon.

Fact is, only the mechanism has been explained:  An Iraqi detonated the van containing one thousand kilo of explosive:  He was under the impression that he is assassinating Iraqi President Allawi.  The van was observed to be parked in one of Syria’s military vehicle maintenance facilities.  All the four false witnesses are from Syria and they were inducted with false information to sidetrack the Court. Only six months ago, the Court questioned six members of Hezbollah as witnesses on the ground that they were monitoring the whereabout of Hariri before the assassination.

One mean article stated that this defensive preemptive series of Nasr Allah’s speeches are aimed at Syria for not divulging secrets that only Syria has on Hezbollah’s activities.  Implicitly, there is cooperation among the superpowers to lure Syria into a vast compromise in return for the return of the Golan Heights by Israel, occupied since 1967.

The internal security of Lebanon is based on the political unity of its major factions against attempts to re-ignite another civil war.  Only the cooperation of the Lebanese army and Hezbollah can assure this security since the political system of Lebanon has proven that it is archaic since its independence in 1943.

The monarch of Saudi Arabia, the President of Syria, and the Emire of Qatar are converging this week-end on Beirut.  The indications are that the stability of Lebanon is far more advantageous than a totally uncertain gamble of weakening Hezbollah militarily with another US/Israeli premptive war on Lebanon.

How to educate a prime idiot in less than six months? (Nov. 3, 2009)

The idiot Saad Hariri, designated to form a government in Lebanon, needs more time to be educated politically on the complex Lebanese political and social system.  Since 2005, after the assassination of Rafic Hariri, the Hariri clan was busy finding a successor to Rafic.  The eldest son declined a political career and opted for the thriving business part of the clan.  Saad was the second choice; he was totally apolitical and ignorant about Lebanon (he is Saudi by birth and citizenship) and had to be educated on Lebanon’s realities and social structures.

Since 2005, Saad has been a student in Lebanese politics and failed to graduate yet. He allowed Seniora PM to guide and manage the clan interests in Lebanon’s politics.  Seniora PM grabbed all sectors that generate money, which belonged to various ministries, under an umbrella of sectors attached to the Prime Minister.

Saad was given a failing cards two months after he was appointed to form a government in the June 2009 parliamentary election; he couldn’t even form a government though he had received 92 votes out of 124 deputies to facilitate his job.  Saad was asked again to form a government with only 72 votes the next time around.  So far, five months were not enough for Saad to grasp what to do next after being selected to form a government.  You might think that the task is obvious: just forming a stupid government.

No, idiot Saad wants to know how the government is to function after it is formed before he deigns to preside it.  Saad wants to know before hand how every problem is to be resolved without the need of 30 heads of ministers dialoguing and discussing problems plaguing Lebanon for over 6 months: Lebanon is currently a State running without a government and just taking care of daily routines with no decision power for serious events that are bound to wreck havoc on the Lebanese.

Saad wants to resolve the Hezbollah’s military dominance before forming a government, even though a Round Table of all the sectarian political parties was established two years ago to discuss this problem.  Saad would not relinquish the Treasury that has been controlled by his clan since 1993.  Sad is taking all his time forming a government simply because the Taef Constitution didn’t allocate a time restriction on forming governments.

The President of Lebanon, Michel Suleiman, would like us to believe that he is totally impotent to resolving this insane deadlock. So far, the President of the Republic is emulating US Barak Obama: all rhetoric and no actions.

How much longer Saad Harriri needs to be educate on Lebanese systems before another sectarian stupid government is to be born?




April 2023

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