Adonis Diaries

Demography explains hope in future: How Empires decline?

In general, history stories are recounted Hollywood-style, packed with actions, heroes, traitors, smart generals, and farsighted leaders and monarchs.  Empires decline due to steady decrease in demography rate.

The Moslem Ibn Khaldoun, in 15^th century North Africa and considered to be the first sociologist and ethnographer, wrote that as people lose hope for a better future to their descendants, they decrease the procreation rate; conversely, in periods of high hope, population increases.”

If you revisite history stories, you can link, with high positive correlation, between periods of luxury and fast and increase in procreation. It is basically a mass perception of predicting the short-term evolution for survival.

For example, France was the most populous nation in Europe in the 18^th century, until people started reducing procreation, which affected the process of holding on to colonies.  The Napoleonic wars exacerbated this perception of instability and insecurity. It was useless giving birth so that children are sent to wars for no return in profit or hope of a better future.

You might offer a counterpoint: “How come after 70 years of slow and steady holocaust process, inflicted by the Zionist movement (Israel State) on the Palestinian people, this strategy did not slow the increased procreation of the Palestinians?”  My conjecture is that most Palestinians live in camps: Camp life would be too depressing if devoid of kids playing, laughing, and cheering up the camp.  The more kids are playing around the more hope is sustained.

Camp life creates community supports and discrepancies among classes are not noticeable to prevent sharing the little that families have, and to caring for kids of neighboring families.

Another example relates to demography in South Lebanon.

Even during the French mandate to Lebanon (1919-1943) the Zionist movement planned and schemed to extend the northern borders of the future State of Israel (recognized in 1948) to the Litany River.  The successive Lebanese governments, since Lebanon Independence in 1943, ruled as if South Lebanon was of no concern to them: no funds and no budgets were allocated to infrastructures, schools, hospitals or any kinds of development.

Then, in 1969, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and headed by Yasser Arafat, and with the support of Egypt Gamal Abdel Nasser forced Lebanon to allocate a portion of South Lebanon (Al Arkoub) an autonomous status to the PLO.  Israel was pleased with this new situation and bombed the villages in the south on pretense of reacting to the presence of the PLO.

The “inhabitants” in south Lebanon started to vacate their villages and flocked to the suburbs of Beirut (Al Dahiah). With the civil war that started in 1975, the PLO was ruling as the de facto State in South Lebanon. Regular mass immigrations to Africa and elsewhere set in. South Lebanon was in the steady process of depleting of its inhabitants, which should have satisfied Israel’s great dream.

Then, Israel decided on the worst strategic blunder ever: Israel of Begin PM and Sharon invaded Lebanon in 1982, the Israeli army entered Beirut, and the military wings of the PLO were chased out to Tunisia, and thus freeing south Lebanon from the hold of the PLO.  Israel resumed its blunder and decided to occupy south Lebanon for 25 years.

That is how a purely Lebanese Resistance to occupation, constituted from many political parties started in full fledge. The regime of Khomeini in Iran extended new religious zeal, an ideology, organization, training and arms to a Shiia splintered faction of AMAL named Hezbollah.  The tide had turned.  Israel was forced to vacate south Lebanon unilaterally in 2000.  The Lebanese returned to their villages with greater hope in the future.

Israel tried another attempt in 2006 to chase out Lebanese from the south during an intensive and savage 33 days war.  Israel covered the land with over 3 millions cluster bombs imported from Tony Blair of England.  The purpose was to scare people off from returning to the south.

The day the UN declared cease-fire, people returned the same day to the south and didn’t wait from the government declaring the trip safe.  Makeshift bridges were erected (Israel had bombed out all bridges and highways) and where cars and trucks could not cross then walking was as good.

Currently, the border villages in Lebanon are witnessing boom in tourism and tourist facilities, yards away from Israeli tanks and border patrols.  The tide has turned. Israel may launch another savage and devastating pre-emptive war in Lebanon, but the game is over: hope in south Lebanon is high for a better future while Israel is experiencing the worst period in lost hope for a stable Israeli State.

Israeli is reverting to its ghetto mentality and holding on to biblical archaic myths and laws.

Note: TheSChiaa population in Lebanon is over 60%, and increasing at a higher rate than the other 17 other religious sects.