Adonis Diaries

“Allah has nothing to do” with “Arabs” crisis, and neither is the Koran

First, Allah has nothing to do with the current crisis and uprising in the Arab Spring mass disobedience movements.

Second, the Koran has nothing to do with the extremist and salafist Islamic factions  and movements. (To be developed in the follow up article)

There are basic factors that drive progress in societies and the recurring violent crisis resulting from changes in the anthropological shift.

1. The rate of literacy (learning to read and write) and what is called alphabetization of society is the prime factor in the drive for change. Once the rate has reached 50% among the population, a mass revolution is not far from emerging against the status quo

Once that many people can read tracts, pamphlet and daily papers in their own language, it becomes inevitable to start demanding reforms.

That’s what happened in 17th century England, 18th France and 20th century Russia.

That’s what happened in Iran, a decade before the Islamic revolution.

That’s what happened in Tunisia and Egypt.

Mind you that the Near Eastern societies or Levant (of Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine) had exceeded the 50% literacy rate in the 30’s, particularly in the cities,and witnessed frequent mass disobedience movements against the mandated powers of France and England and against the feudal classes.

Mind you also that the First Palestinian Intifada of 1935 was started because England refused any election, not even on the municipal level, on the pretext that the Jews constituted less than 20% of the population.

This mass disobedience lasted 3 years and England was forced to dispatch 100,000 troops to quell this virulent and steadfast revolution. As WWII was about to start, and in order not to bog down in Palestine such a large number of troops, England began to train Zionist Jews in Palestine on acts of terrorism and sabotage of bridges and communication lines.

It is in 1938 that Ben Gurion started his extensive and detailed plan of mass terror activities against the Palestinians once Israel declares its Independence. The plan was carried out in its minute details, especially evacuating the Palestinians from cities and villages bordering the shore line to deny the Palestinians any support from the sea.

2. The second factor is the rate of fecundity. If the rate is way above 3 per family, it is an indication that the majority of females in a society is still illiterate. The women play the role of “manufacturing” kids in high numbers so that 50% of them might survive the age of 5.  That was the trend in almost every society around the world in the 19th century.

Once the fecundity rate drops to 2, women and mothers are seeking higher quality of life to their offspring and investing in their education and well-being.

The qualitative shift to higher concern for offspring is correlated with the lower quantitative level of fecundity.

Mind you that a drop under 2 means that the society is losing hope in a better future for their offspring and the demographics starts its aging process.

For example, the median age in Tunisia is 29, in Egypt 24, in France 40 and in Germany 44.  You should not expect an older median population to take to the street and demonstrate with the same endurance and zeal as with the younger population.

I conjecture that the atrocious WWI was the result of high illiteracy rate among women in the rural areas and the peasants constituted a large reserve of illiterate soldiers who were easily enrolled in the army under fraudulent “facts” and evidences.

3. The third factor is an anthropological substrate: What were the family values, particularly the inheritance system between the genders, the trend to considering sons and daughter at a par in mental capability, responsibility and competence.

4. An important characteristics in the anthropological structure is the rate of endogamous marriages: marriages among close relatives and cousins. This characteristic bolster the patrilinear structure where the status of a family is linked to the status of the father.

In these kinds of community, the tribal and clannish bonding override the other community benefits and concerns.

In Tunisia and Egypt, endogamous marriages rate were around 35%, which restrained the acceleration of the upheavals. This high rate is prevalent in almost every Arabic Islamic State.

In Egypt, there is a steady decline of endogamous marriages and reaching about 25%.

In the 20th century, the modern western and industrialized societies enacted laws to encourage exogamy and forced the churches to adopt these civil laws that prohibit marriages to the second and third degrees in family close relationship.

5. The fifth factor is inevitably the lack of work opportunities for the youth who got university degrees and are left to loaf around. The high unemployment rate in the Arabic States is an endemic problem.

Progress is measured by the kinds of jobs that motivate people to work. And the right to work is primordial in the youth mind in order to plan out their future and viability of remaining in their homeland.

Question: Are Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Emirate States and the other two monarchies of Morocco and Jordan about to witness any mass upheavals?

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates rely on oil revenues: The citizens don’t pay taxes and “No taxes, no representation” 

The Gulf Emirates, as is the case of Libya, are scarcely populated and the oil revenues can take care of allowing stipends to be distributed to the “citizen/chattel”.

What happened in Libya was the result of the people in the eastern part (Benghazi) being punished by Gadhafi and totally ignored for 2 decades. Nothing has changed in Libya: the citizens are demanding oil stipend money to be distributed “equitably”

Saudi Arabia  is in deep trouble, a reserve of fanatic extremist neglected population who were unleashed for over 3 decades in foreign Islamic lands, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria…

Oil stipend is lavishly spent on the 5,000 members of the Royal extended family and the rate of unemployment and barely surviving people are extremely high.

Morocco will end up a Constitutional monarchy, unless civil war breaks out since the Al Qaeda-type followers are spreading like wild fire in northern Africa

Jordan has always been backed by foreign powers and can easily be put on fire if this monarchy fails to compromise on a Constitutional monarchy.

Note 1: The first part was inspired by the interview of Daniel Schneidermann with Emmanuel Todd on Arret sur images and published in a book: “Allah has nothing to do“, and “Le rendez-vous des civilizations” (The meeting of civilizations) by Todd and Youssef Courbage

Note 2: Historian Emmanuel Le Roy-Ladurie analyses the trend using long-term statistical dada