Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Rural areas

Law of small numbers that looms large

Suppose you own 100 stores in cities and in rural areas.

You hire a consultant to study the problem of shoplifting in your stores. The rates of theft compared to volume of sales show that shoplifting is highest in rural areas.

It turned out that the lowest rates are also located in the stores in rural areas. What gives?

In small stores, even a single theft looms large and the rates vary greatly.

If you order the rates according to size of stores, most of the shoplifting are in the vast middle, while the small stores occupy the tails of the curve.

It is not the location of the stores that is the deciding factor but their size.

If you read this caption “Start-ups employ smarter employees” be on your guard.

Start ups have small number of employees and their average IQ fluctuate far more than those employed by large companies.

Daniel Kahneman reveals that even experienced scientists succumb to the Law of small numbers: They tend to forget the random distribution law in their initial assessments.

Read: The Art of Thinking Clear

 

It is proven that most offspring, a century ago, were the product of incests.  It is documented that Adolf Hitler was the product of incest: his father married his own daughter who was conceived by one of the father’s close relatives.  Rural areas, everywhere in the world, were the hotbeds of incestuous genes inheritance.  Only a few tribal clans in Africa had a tradition of marrying outside the tribe and maintained healthy generations.

It is mainly lack of communication with the outside world that generated myths and customs of promoting incest behaviors and family inbreeding.  This lack of communication was made difficult by primitive transport systems (along with high risks of venturing outside town limits, and the insufficient resources to marrying outside family premises in order to conserving wealth within the larger family).

If it was not for occasional wars outside the boundries of empires then, mankind would have degenerated and disappeared long time ago.  War carried in its files and ranks soldiers above average in health; the customs of taking women slaves and younger prisoners of both genders had one main consequence: improving genes for upgraded resistance to infections.  The other by-products benefits for invaders were the explicit catalysts that made mankind to survive up to now.

One of the main reasons that encouraged the racist ideology of “pure race” in Germany was that Germany and the other northern States were not invaded as frequently in ancient history of wars.  Actually, Germanic tribes were the invading hordes into the Roman Empire, England, and France.  Germanic tribes didn’t bring back slaves since they had no empires and they wanted to settle in more temperate climates; they did procreate different breeds wherever they entered. Germany before the 19th century had the lowest longevity rate and was the least populated in Europe commensurate with areas dimensions.

If it was not for the expansion of Islam in Spain from the 8th to the 14th centuries; the Crusade campaigns in the 11th and 12th centuries, and the expansion of the Othoman Empires in the 15th and 16th centuries then, the European populations would have been in a state of degeneration.

Up to the 19th century, women had high ratio of stillbirths and children dying at early ages. The few births that survived had better immunity against the countless deadly diseases.  Why this sudden exponential increase in world population?  It is not because of better hygiene or higher standards of living.  Two main factors account for this increasing trend to reach 8 billions by 2015:  First, better medical techniques that increased the odd of giving birth (instead of 3 out of 10 surviving we are experiencing 7 out of ten, even in the third world). Second, the application of urban (modern) regulations to marriage permits that excluded co-sanguine alliances and testing for blood compatibilty.  The other two secondary factors are: Immunization and qualitative transport systems that allowed communication outside town limits and mass transfer to urban centers.

What about contraceptive drugs and techniques?  We need to keep in mind that rural life and customs are predominant in most countries; rural region set the trend in matters of demography.  Maybe urban centers will embrace about 50% of world population within a decade but the poorest districts in cities (bidonviles, favella) are worse than rural areas in controlling and managing demography.   All kinds of States restrictions and regulations to limit the trend in increased population will not make a dent: Population control is tightly connected and highly correlate with higher standard of living and work opportunities for both genders. 

You may read a compatible post of mine: https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2009/08/23/the-priest-the-warrior-and-the-peasant/

Note:  Wars waged after the 19th century had no advantages whatsoever.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

October 2021
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