Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Saad Hariri PM

A Tunisian graduate citizen, Mohammad Bou Azizi, out of work (thousands other graduates out of work for 5 years) set fire on his body and catalyzed a popular revolution against a “President for life” named Ben Ali, who expected to rule more than 23 years.  The Tunisian President tried to mock the people: He first promised jobs for all university graduates within a year; then he promised not to run for the Presidency in 2014, then he fired the minister of the interior, then he fired the military chief-of Staff for refusing to shoot on the demonstrators, then he asked his second wife to flee with 1.5 tons of gold; but he forgot to promise that his oligarchy will not extend their power in 2014 and beyond.   Ben Ali fled the country to Saudi Arabia, a week after the mass upheaval.  The association of lawyers strongly backed the people; a pilot, Mohammad Kilani, refused the boarding of the Ben Ali family and relatives seeking exile and were arrested.

In Lebanon, the opposition parties in the coalition of “Union government” finally decided to fire Saad Hariri PM as he was meeting with President Obama in the White House.  It was a strong message that western political pressures are no longer remedies to local troubles.  An opposition leader, Michel Aoun said: “Saad behaved as if he were a King, the PM for life and didn’t need permission from the government to travel non-stop around the world and discarding rules, regulations, laws, and the concerns of the Lebanese citizens”. 

In Tunisia, the former Mohammad Ghannouchi PM re-constituted a provisional “National Union” government for preparing the next election within three months; he liberated the political prisoners, and has promised to legalize the Islamists and communist parties.  The Tunisian people is still highly restless: The people is saying: “No to a government with four previous rotten ministers holding the key positions.  We want a new Constitution, a new election law, a new parliament and a new government.”  Four ministers resigned and a newer government must be in the making:  The foreign minister was recalled promptly while meeting in Egypt for an Arabic summit of some kind.

In Lebanon, President Suleiman was to start the rounds of political parties nomination for another PM on Monday Jan. 17; and then he postponed the decision for the next Monday.  Why?  The leaders of Turkey, Syria, and Qatar were meeting in Damascus to “ironing out” a resolution according to the deal agreed upon by Syria and Saudi Arabia since September.  Syria has refused the suggestion of French President for a council of heads formed of France, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria to finding a resolution to Lebanon’s crisis:  Syria is not about to let Lebanon (on its backyard) be controlled by an international take carer. To make things worse, Bellemare of the International Court on Lebanon, presented his act of accusations to Fransen.  The streets are witnessing peaceful demonstrations so far in reaction to the politically timed International Court accusations.

Tunisia is making most “dictators for life” in the Arab World feeling their heads, as next in line to falling such as Mubarak of Egypt, Kadhafi of Libya, the King of Jordan, Bouteflika of Algeria, and Abdallah Saleh of Yemen, Omar Bashir of Sudan… For example, Saleh of Yemen dropped the proposition in the Constitution for President to life;  Kuwait has released 4 billions of dollars for free food and subsidies to the Kuwaiti citizens, Bashir of Sudan incarcerated Al Turabi (former PM) for fear of setting off mass demonstrations…  So far, the Arab World has witnessed 13 individuals setting fire on their bodies from Mauritania, Algeria, Egypt, and Sudan; many were terribly unlucky and suffering horribly from third degree burns. 

Lebanon is making most foreign powers such as the EU and the USA fearing of losing a sustainable stronghold in Lebanon and taking Lebanon hostage for many years to come through the UN resolutions and the International Court for Lebanon that has been dragging its feet for 5 years.   The Syrian and Saudi deal is for declaring nul and void the institution of International Court for Lebanon by an illegitimate government in 2005 during former Seniora PM; the recalling of Lebanese judges, and stopping Lebanon’s funding of the court that amounted to $40 million each year.  By Sunday evening, there was some kind of a deal but Saad failed to go public and pronounce his agreement.  As Bellemare preempted the deal by presenting his “act of accusation” the Lebanese chairman of the Parliament declared that “what was agreed upon before the act of accusation is no longer valid and pretty much redundant”, meaning “Saad, you may kiss your chances “good-bye” for being selected PM”.  Fact is, Saad Hariri is primarily a Saudi citizen; what he knows of Lebanon was done during his vacation periods; his boss is the Saudi monarch and his superboss is the US Administration.

Lebanon is a week away from a qualitative jump into a new motto “Lebanon strength is not in its weakness; it is by increasing its strength retaliating against Israel’s preemptive attacks and uniting the people, the army, and the resistance against foreign military and political pressures”. 

Lebanon is a week away from taking the high road to equitable democracy:  The citizen is no longer subjected to behaving as chattel to local feudal leader (being bought, sold and transferred) at the whim of the local leader; no longer pressured to vote for his sectarian affiliation, ready to taking to the streets for retaining his acquired rights and claiming long-awaited laws (agreed upon) but taking too long to be enacted by the Parliament.

Lebanon is a week away from feeling stronger than in any previous periods; a Lebanon rich in its diversity, and in harmony with its own people in Syria, Jordan, and Palestine.

Note: Actually, the Hariri clan and their party the “Mustakbal” (Future) ruled Lebanon since 1992, almost with no interruption, and considered Lebanon as their background garden and the citizens as chattel meant to increase the financial hold of the Hariri oligarchy and extending their financial and economic domination with no restriction.  The Hariri clan constituted a shadow government to bypassing the legal and legitimate government.

Note 2: Now the Western world and the regional powers “in the pocket” of the US Administrations (such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Yemen, the Golf Emirates, and formerly Tunisia) instantly rose as a multinational institution to “seriously studying” the Lebanese case and how to circumvent the new shift in power.

Note 3: Fact is, 65% of the Lebanese side with the “opposition movement” and are aware that the previous oligarchy is not serious pondering on their daily needs, long awaiting reforms in the legal system, the election law, the strategic plans for resisting Israel’s frequent invasions of the territory, the obsolete education system, the archaic political and social structure, the health, economic development, taming the increase in foreign debts, enhancing the quality and quantity of potable water, the affordability and availability of electrical power, and opening work opportunities for graduates and workers…

The Lebanese citizens, and much less the foreign workers and immigrants, had no rights under any constitutions; the finance treasury was off any kinds regulations, control, and questioning by deputies or any minister:  11 billion dollars are not accounted for in the last 4 years alone, and over 2 billion in foreign loans were spent somehow and never registered officially in the finance ministry and how they were spent…

You may read a post I published 13 months ago and realize that nothing changed

Iran and Syria:  A difficult 30 years alliance; (Apr. 20, 2010)

            Almost every day, news media analyze the alliance between Syria and Iran.  Since the Iranian nuclear program was launched, the western media and the so-called “moderate” Sunni Arab dictators and monarchs’ media would like to witness any kinds of rift in the alliance, sort of an illusion made to sound a reality anytime soon: they would also like to relieve Israel of a “psychological” nuisance that Islamic countries can also own nuclear capability if they set their mind to it. 

            Actually, there are no lack of brain power and money for Egypt, Syria, or Saudi Arabia to fulfill this project if the Arab League was up to its name.  The USA and Europe are actively working to destabilizing Iran and threatening harsher economical embargo so that Iran desist “manipulating” the dangerous products, even for civilian use such as hospital and generating electricity.  So far, Iran is within the boundaries of Atomic Energy Agency guidelines; that is why the UN is unable to threaten strong arm interventions.

            Syria’s Baath Party tried to re-unite with Iraq’s Baath branch and then have strategic alliance between the two States in 1979 but Saddam Hussein foiled the attempt of Syria Hafez Assad.  Iran of the Shah was the strongest ally to the US and Israel; Saddam Hussein went along with the Shah’s policies in partitioning the water passageway (Shat al Arab) and the Kurdistan problems.  When Khomeini revolution succeeded then Syria allied with the new Islamic regime and still is, even during the devastating 8 years war between Iraq and Iran.

            In the Near East (for example, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, and Syria), Iran needs the alliance with Syria more than any other States because Syria can put the squeeze on the US and Israel if conditions deteriorates.  In global politics, especially securing veto powers of China and Russia in the UN, Syria badly need the heavy weight of Iran to circumvent any economical embargoes or blockades on Syria and also for securing military credits and hardware.  In the last two decades, Syria wooed Turkey and managed to establish one of the closest alliances in the region.  As long as Turkey lacks the requisite caliber to weight on Russia and China in the UN as Iran can, then Syria has no option but to put more eggs in Iran’s basket.

            Syria has assimilated the idiom: “Never put all your eggs in one basket” and is not about to change this strategic policy. This article focuses on the deal between Iran and Syria on Lebanon. Iran grasped early on that the fundamental strategy of Syria is: “Syria military strategy is one with Lebanon”.  Thus, Hezbollah may resume its political leaning toward Iran but in no situation should Hezbollah undertake any military activities without prior consent of Syria and complete coordination with Syria.  The other deal is that the other Chiaa political faction of AMAL should share equally, if not a bit more than Hezbollah, in the parliament, government, municipality, and civil administrations. AMAL is headed by Nabih Berry, over 30 years as head of the Lebanese Parliament, and was created by late Iranian Imam Moussa Sadr in 1972 who was assassinated in Libya in 1983. AMAL is the main political party totally at the beck of Syria instructions; thus, when any Lebanese file or problem is turned exclusively to Nabih Berry for consideration then it means that the resolution is in the hands of Syria.

            Currently, the most urgent demand of Syria on Lebanon’s government is to let go of the International Court investigating the assassination of late Rafic Harri PM in 2005. Syria knows that this Court was created as a political weapon by the US to pressure Syria into political concessions. After 5 years of heavy political pressures on Syria, now the Court is turning the weapon on Hezbollah.  Syria knows that targeting Hezbollah is implicitly targeting Syria. The international political usage of this Court has to end and very soon or Lebanon will suffer great instability if Saad Hariri PM keeps his uncertain position and refuses to step down.  Most probably, another Prime Minister ready to bring the International Court to Lebanon’s jurisdiction would be selected. Fact is, France declined to resume financing the Court; a signal that France no longer sees any benefit of the Court to its current policies in the Near East.




March 2023

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