Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Sarkis Naoum

And President Morsi of Egypt: Dusting off his pragmatic streak…

What if 42% of Egyptians go to bed hungry? What if the concept of happiness is a modern idea: That every citizen is entitled to eat and enjoy health care…as any elite citizen? How the Moslem Brotherhood movement in power can satisfy the basic need of a growing population? The next revolution is to be pragmatic and diverge from abstract pronouncements…

President Morsi (Mursi?), the constitutionally elected, has been sending strong signals and messages of how he plans to lead Egypt, pragmatically and on feasibility programs.

1. Mursi retired the leading military chiefs and set the stage for affirming the meaning of a constitutional election by the people…Mursi wants to be the sole responsible for the security, military decisions and political agenda of Egypt after the “revolution”…

2. Mursi agreed, temporarily, not to meddle directly with prior military privileges: The military is in charge of one-third of Egypt budget for economic projects and programs…

3. Mursi first official visit abroad was to China: Egypt is no longer to be viewed as the exclusive partner to the US…Although bthe US will remain the main financial and military backer to this Moslem Brotherhood regime…

4. Mursi is diversifying Egypt financial sources, and not taking much umbrage of how radical Islams interpret interest on money lending… The IMF is extending $4,5 billion, Qatar $2 billion and planning to invest $18 bn in the next 5 years on infrastructure (electricity, factory, tourism…)

5. Mursi appointed an ambassador to Israel in order to renegotiate the obsolete and one-sided biased “peace treaty” signed by Sadat in the 80’s…

6. Mursi is cracking down on radical Islamist movements in the Sinai, using what is necessary in military troops and weapons…, in order to put down, early on, the “illegitimate activities” of organization taking orders from foreign powers…

7. Mursi attended the “Non Allied States” (to any superpower) in Iran and is willing to cooperate with Iran in order to weaving an acceptable transfer of power in Syria…Egypt used to be one of the corner States of this organization during Nasser, alongside India and Yugoslavia…

8. Confirmed the Egyptian position on Syria: The current regime has to go…

Note 1: Mohamad Morsi got only 25% of the electoral votes in the first round, while the liberal candidates Sabahi (21%) and Aboul Forouh (17.5%) reaped 40 % of the total. Morsi has to deal with these results if his political program has to succeed…

Note 2: Post inspired from an article by Sarkis Naoum in the daily Al Nahar

Part 3. Civil war not Ended yet? This time around…No more Blemish
You may read this link to comprehending the context of the problem:

Two campaigns were carried out on social platforms to get the Lebanese engaged against the waves of internal instability that are reminiscent of the mechanisms of previous civil wars.

The first campaign, followed by marches in England, was under the banner “Silence means consent. Shout: NO TO CIVIL WAR, NO TO SECTARIANISM”.  The petition to sign said:

“We are Lebanese citizens who want a peaceful, stable and secular Lebanon. We are not connected to any political party or sectarian group.

In light of the worrying recent events in Lebanon, we believe that time has come for the “silent majority” in Lebanon to speak up and shout: “NO TO CIVIL WAR, NO TO SECTARIANISM”.

Joanna Choukeir Hojeily was with Cedric Choukeir.

We call for:

• An “arm free” Lebanon

• A new law prohibiting the purchase or use of arms by civilians under any circumstances

• Civil peace to be guaranteed and reinforced by the government, the army and the security forces

• Unbiased and “non-sectarian” media coverage of the events as they unfold

• The prosecution of every individual who has directly or indirectly participated in the clashes and violent events of this past week in Lebanon

• Political leaders to seriously and actively stop arming their partisans and work towards containing the tension

• The civil society in Lebanon to take urgent action by lobbying, raising awareness, actively engaging in conflict prevention and starting peace initiatives targeting “at risk neighbourhoods

• Friends and family members of individuals involved in the violence to deter their loved ones from taking part in future clashes

Remember, silence means consent… so speak up!

The second campaignLebanon must have a War Free Zone…”
The two campaigns demonstrate the excellent intention of the majority of Lebanese to avoid another civil war and their serious engagement to confront the dark forces.
That is not enough: The professional dark forces are receiving the strong signal that the peaceful and secular communities in Lebanon are not aware of the mechanisms for starting a civil war and how to effectively prevent a planned civil war.
The slogan asking for a War Free Zone for the secular Lebanese is hilarious: As if the UN job is to allocate a region within Lebanon for those Lebanese who want to stay clear from the consequences of a civil war, instead of immigrating to better pastures…
The professional dark forces are trained using a textbook on “How to Start and sustain a civil war”. The key tactic in fomenting a civil war is to ease the youth into “shameful” activities, unaware of the gravity in the participating in these activities, and cow the youth into silence, during the war, and years after the war has ended.
Many die, feeling pretty reluctant into divulging how they participated in the slaughterhood and crimes against humanity.
My dad told me how at the beginning of the civil war in 1975, the local militia (the Kataeb, Phalanges) forced him and many other local middle-age men to carry old and non functional rifles, just to walk the streets at night in order to recognize “foreign elements” not from the village…My dad and his team used to hide when a car or a truck, loaded with loot from the port of Beirut, showed up: They preferred not to recognize the people and to be recognized…
Many youth, frankly opposed to the local militia ideology, were hoarded into military training camps: The peer pressure was enough to sending these youth into participating actively in the civil war.  The blemish projected by family members and friends for getting military training  was another factor into keeping the silence…
As the youth is immersed into this madhouse of ugly activities of humiliating people, getting used to drugs, and the feeling of illusory power…things get out of hand.
After the war, many militia fighters got nostalgic: They were no longer “cared for” and the feeling that everything was available and handy had vanished, and they had to fend for their daily survival…
It is about time that the “anti-war” in Lebanon start doing their due diligence in amassing materials on how civil wars start, are carried out, and who are those dark professionals returning to Lebanon, and naming names, and quickly getting mobilized against the slightest sectarian and feudal innuendo…
Best of all, get communities to meet, face to face, and let this human connection shred the myths of the sectarian leaders and clerics they weaved against” illusory enemies” to maintain their hold of the chattel…
 The US is sending the strong signal that it intends on pressuring Lebanon into policies that are against the Lebanese interest, otherwise, another round of civil disturbances is on the burners… For example:
1. Maura Connelly, US ambassador to Lebanon, was seen having lunch in Zahleh with engineer Richard Jraissati, former “Lebanese Forces” foreign contacts during the civil war. Is the US blatantly sending the strong message that the planning for another round of civil war in Lebanon has reached the preparation stage?
2. The “Bagman” Jeffrey Feltman, former US ambassador to Lebanon and soon to be transferred to the UN as assistant to foreign affairs policies position , visits frequently Lebanon. The visits precede by a few days the “US warns its citizens not to travel to Lebanon”. Feltman programs the destabilization of a country he was supposed to protect and insure its stability.
Feltman accompanies the visits of Zionist US Senators and Congressmen, like Joseph Lieberman who pay visits to North Lebanon in order to establish a Free Zone for the Syrian armed insurgents to start a civil war in Syria from a safe zone in Lebanon…
3. I am just finishing reading the column of Sarkis Naoum in the daily Al Nahar, who is conducting interviews with US politicians and policy makers. Naoum wrote that the US is studying and analizing every single piece of intelligence on Lebanese banking transactions with the Syrian regime, its business leaders, and with Iran and Hezbollah…If this is not a hot preparation to fomenting a civil war, what is it?
The worst part is that our Prime Minister Mikati divulged to the US representative a list of Syrian businessmen…Why? Mikati wanted to know if these businessmen (he is dealing with) are on a black list! The US is glad to investigate more names it didn’t have…
While the Lebanese are very worried of the resurgence of te civil war that never ended, Seth Sherwood posted on May 13 “The Urbanist’s Beirut: Contemporary art, notorious nightclubs, and Frenchified cafés…”
La Plage Beach Club on the Corniche Beirut.

(Photo: Paul Blackmore)

“While much of the Arab world has been blown apart by social upheaval, mass violence, and political turmoil, Beirut has been kicking back quietly on its Mediterranean perch, happy and astonished to be a spectator for once. (Even the New York Times recently hailed it a ­“haven amid turmoil.”)

By day, buzzing scooters and battered old Mercedes taxis honk their way along palm-lined boulevards, unimpeded by demonstrations. By night, their occupants stroll on the seaside Corniche, smoke water pipes in cafés, and indulge in the Lebanese capital’s legendary nightlife. But of course all is not rosy.

Neighboring Syria remains a battleground, to say the least. While there is a vibrant gay subculture, homosexual activity is technically illegal, and travelers with Israeli stamps in their passports can still be arrested and detained.

Tensions among rival ­politico-religious factions, some heavily armed, simmer under the surface. But a relative calm in recent years has prompted a development boom. Indeed, the razing of historical buildings to create luxury shopping malls has led some to decry the “Dubai-ification” of downtown Beirut. 

And a parallel blossoming in art, fashion, and gastronomy, propelling the famously bullet-riddled city to emerge as the Arab world’s creative center…”

For today, Lebanon needs urgently to prosecute the last phase of the unfinished civil war: Lebanon wants a Victor in order to establish a modern State.
For today, Lebanon needs urgently to prosecute the last phase of the unfinished civil war: After 65 years of a pseudo independence and pseudo State, and the impossibility of regular and gradual reforms for our political/social system, there will be a definite victor, this time around.
This time around the Lebanese want to securing a central State, engaged on the side of the people, the citizens.

“You are not fooling the world. Lebanese, desist fooling yourselves!” by Sarkis Naoum

When you listen to the Lebanese politicians, diplomats, jurists, legal professionals on the Constitution and government procedures, and most sectarian leaders (religious and civil)… you have the impression that Lebanon sociopolitical system should be the ideal alternative to the Arab States who were successful in demoting previous dictators and oligarchies, such as in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Iraq, and soon Syria…

What all these “sources of advisors” mean by “the Lebanese experience in a democratic, parliamentary, and constitutional system” are pure lies: Lebanon never enjoyed such utopia characteristics since its independence and then recognition by the UN in 1946 as a State.

You hear a lot that Lebanon before the long and protracted civil war (1975-1990) was a heaven of security and stability and prosperity…peaceful coexistence, smooth application of the laws…Platon Republic that finally was established…

No State is fool enough to give the nod to these lucubrations:  States involved in Lebanon politics know far more about Lebanon reality and the facts that shame us in every aspects of human rights and conduct of politics (internally and externally) than we want to admit of our vast arrays of endemic shortcomings and sociopolitical structural weaknesses

No State is fooled that Lebanon civil war was initiated and planned by foreign powers or that we are “angels” who had to suffer foreign interventions and sick interests, or that tiny Lebanon was basically the location for geopolitical wars waged on its soil…

Sure, foreign regional and international powers came to the rescue of factions within Lebanon and extended financial and military support that served their interests, but the civil war was mainly the doing among our fractured and disintegrating “informal” sociopolitical system that was no longer sustainable and accepted by new generations…In Lebanon, only temporary deals and concensus have long lives, unlike the clauses in the Constitution…

As you listen to the Lebanese on their state of affairs after 1990, you get the impression that the Lebanese learned something from the lessons of the gruesome civil war, that they will no longer fall into traps laid by foreign interests…You want to believe that Lebanon has “recaptured” their senses of multicultural, freedom of expressions, democracy, respect for human rights, anti-discrimination laws based on genders, religious beliefs, …

No one is fooled: Nothing is as far from realities of these chimeric proclamations…You want to believe the religious clerics that Lebanon is the proper bed of reciprocated love among the various factions…You constantly hear that Lebanon is the land of cooperation among its 18 officially recognized sects that enjoy the privileges of defining your individual status, as if a State is a commercial corporation and should be run as such…

It is important that the liberal movements in Arab States cease to disseminate the Lebanese falsehoods of the ideal political structure for a secure, stable, and sustainable system…Lebanon never enjoyed a durable period for any kinds of security and development…

Any State that adopts the Lebanese system is doomed to suffer insecurity and repeated civil wars…and witness the disintegration of its social fabrics into self-autonomous multi-religious-sectarian political system that blocks sustainable development and harmony among the citizens…

Lebanese, cease disseminating your chimeric wishes, values that you don’t know what they means and never experienced, cease fooling yourselves on how is Lebanon and how it should be, and what impressive achievements you could transfer to people who started civic revolutions…

Note 1:  This post was mainly inspired from an editorial by Sarkis Naoum in the Lebanese daily Al Nahar

Note 2: You may read

Political or civil mass disobedience movements? Case studies of Occupy Wall Street, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia…

Are secular and national concepts anathema to Arab/Islamic spirit?

Except in Egypt, it appears that most upheavals are fundamentally violent civil mass disobedience, (not true any longer in Egypt), with no clarity or viable pragmatic alternatives of why reforms and change are needed, and what alternative reforms should substitute the existing dictatorial system…

In Egypt, we had a political mass disobedience and the western nations are adopting the Egyptian non-violent strategy.  Mubarak is gone, but the regime is still alive, and the Egyptians might resort to civil disobedience if no reforms takes place very soon.

Many US officials and policy-makers blame former Egypt dictator Mubarak for fomenting many religious sectarian riots between the Sunni Moslems and the Christian Copts (10% of the population) during his long reign.

The tactic was to keep the Copts allied to his corrupt system in fear of the “Moslem Brotherhood” fanatics.

Actually, Mubarak didn’t have to go to so much trouble fomenting sectarian riots: All he had to do is sit tight and fail to intervene ahead of time since his widespread internal secret services had infiltrated all movements.

Mubarak was asked several times to review the terribly biased religious laws that deliver permits within a week to build a Mosque and requiring the Christians to wait 5 years for a permit to emerge.

The other sensible law was to separate building Mosque and Church by 200 meters. It turned out that by the time Copts got their permit “stamped”, the Moslem had built within the 200 meters of the potential allocated plot…

After Mubarak was evicted, nothing changed in the skewered religious treatments.

In early March, a church was burned in Halwan.

On May 7, three churches were burned in Embaba, resulting in 15 deaths and over 200 injured civilians.

On June 24, the fanatics among the “Moslem Brotherhood” movement attacked a church in Aswan.

On Oct. 5, the Copts demonstrated and the army dispersed the march violently.

On Oct. 9, the Copts reacted and tried another mass protest in Cairo that ended with 25 killed and 320 injured.  Two tanks ran over protesters and Moslems threw Molotov cocktail bombs on the Copt marchers.

The Egyptian military lied through its teeth:

First, not a single soldier was killed as it claimed; and

Ssecond, the official media harangued the Egyptians to descend in the street to support the military!  Mubarak would not stooped that low to confirm his authority.

The goal of the current military is to maintaining their hold on power, directly or indirectly.  The reasons for this mania are:

First, preserving all the previous advantages and benefits, and whatever review is to be for more power.

Second, sending the same signal, as during Mubarak, to the world community that only the army is in a position to maintaining security and unity.  Consequently, the military is ready to using heavy handed methods as the Mubarak regime to demonstrating its brute power…

The greatness of the Egyptian revolt is that it is still non-violent and the masses get to the streets at every critical junction:  They are ever ready to warn anyone in “power” that the revolt is never going to be over, until the common people have a say in the decision making process…

The other solid factor in the success of the Egyptian revolution is that the “elite class” is far less violent than their counterparts in almost all other Arabic/Islamic countries, and particularly in the Near East such as Syria, Iraq, Lebanon…and even in the western culture.

It is mainly a historical tendency and current heavy dense population in Egyptian cities…that remind street leaders of the consequences of inflaming the masses by violent means and rhetoric.

In a nutshell, historically, the Egyptian natives of the Nile Valley hardly opposed any occupation troops with arms.

In Syria, all war-like empires invaded the land, but never any occupation force managed to administer or centrally hold any power, not even the Romans or the Arabic/Islamic Empires.

Ask the French mandate power how it quickly withdrew from Syria: In revenge, France ceased valuable northern Syrian lands to Turkey in 1936 (the Alexandretta city and the strategic region of Adana).

Historically, Syria was mostly governed by intermediary tribes or coalition of tribes… The Emir of a city relied on youth hoodlums to tame virulent tribes, and this is what the Syrian regime is exactly currently applying. Those “shababs” of local militias paid by the regime will have the same destiny, if history repeats itself in Syria.

For example, in Syria, the son of Aleppo Mufti was assassinated by fanatic opposition extremists.  Not a single “insurgent: faction or opposition movement condemned this unnecessary assassination: They even declined to mention the event in public and discuss it.

A “deep terrifying silence” is hovering over the horror wrong-doing, according to Lebanese journalist Jihad el Zine. How could we expect a better alternative social/political system in Syria if what is happening in horror stories during this uprising is not discussed and stands taken?  How could we expect any peaceful transition to the Bashar el Assad clan regime?

How could we condemn a violent regime if the culture in society is not prepared and trained to act non-violently? Period.

This deep scary silence was witnessed in Lebanon after the Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon in 2005.  Scores of hard-working Syrian workers were assassinated in various districts in Lebanon, and not a single voice from the elite class or civic movements reacted to these barbarities. Actually, not a public official dared to lament the “revenge” behavior on Syrian civilians…

The brutal civil war in Libya has demonstrated the violent revenge reactions of the people.

Iraq is still suffering from suicide car bombing in crowded streets (random violence tactics) after the US occupation in 2003. What is happening in Yemen? Can anyone follow the story or the world community has given up on Yemen, as it had given up on Lebanon during 17 years of civil war?

There is this stupid excuse that current Sunni Moslem Brotherhood” movements are “moderate”.  Moderate in what?

Is saying that the women will not be subjugated to the same servile standards as in Saudi Arabia, the most obscurantist Wahhabi sect, a good enough proposal to enhancing freedom of opinion, liberty, and equal rights?

Can anyone point to a single Islamic movement, a majority religious sect in any country, coming to power and ever being defeated in any “democratic” election?

Do anyone believe that the “Moslem Brotherhood”  currently in power in Turkey can ever be defeated in election from now on?

Note 1: The topic on the Egyptian Copts’ tenuous situation was inspired by an editorial of Sarkis Naoum in the Lebanese daily Al Nahar.  Naoum visits the US frequently to interview officials, current and former, and policy-makers and foreign research institutes.

Note 2:  What is the new “democratic” alternative of the US in the Greater Middle East?

Note 3Tactics of scary random violence

US Administration tacit green light: Power in the Middle-East shared by military and Moslem Brotherhood movements

Why the US Administration and policy-makers reached a comprehensive strategy to allowing the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) political parties and movements to share power with the military in the Middle-East States?  Tunisia is the forerunner with the MB obtaining 45% of the votes.  Egypt and Libya are to follow suit.

This policy is not new: More than a decade ago, the US decided that the Turkish Moslem Brotherhood (MB) Party, lead by Erdogan PM, and representing the Moslem Sunni sect, is the preferred alternative to exclusive military rule.  The Turkish MB government has stuck steadfastly with the long-term US strategy in the region.  A successful case that the US believe could be executed and practiced in the other Arab/Islamic States…

The tacit rational of the US Administrations are:

First, sharing of power of the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood with the military would facilitate a social deal with the Christian Cop minority (10% of the population), by making the MB movement directly responsible for any religious persecution;

Second, this sharing of power would rob the military government an essential tool of using Islamic factions in order to pressure minority sects in supporting government corruption policies…

Third, this sharing of power would facilitate confronting “terrorist” factions, which have taken an Islamic face and undertone…

Fourth, this cooperation in vastly Sunni majority States will oppose the growing Chiaa power in the region, spearheaded by Iran.  The US Administration has adopted the slogan that Iran is the Evil power that is frustrating its global strategy in the Greater Middle-East region. Iran decided to become self sufficient in military hardware production…

Fifth, the US wish this new alternative political system would behave differently, even though continuing with the same ideology of exclusion, discrimination, and considering the Chariaa (religious laws) as the source of civic legislation..

What the US and European States want in return for this sharing of power?

First, keeping oil flowing at reduced market price value. This practice has never ceased to be the case. The regimes were asked to forget how to make good use of produced oil, except for export necessities…

Second, keep market open for imported goods. It has always been the case: the regimes were not meant to figure out a way of manufacturing any goods worth exporting…

Third, Keep exporting the agricultural product and raw materials…at the expense of the famished population…

Fourth, fully controlling any “terrorist” activities outside State borders.  The regimes have been fulling cooperating with the CIA and other European secret service agencies, in all kinds of matters, including how to control internal protesters and opposition forces…

Fifth, keep purchasing arms from them, at the exclusion of Russia…This was the case of Qadhafi who got insane and decided last year to buy arms exclusively from Russia

Why the US Administration  and European States have reached this understanding? Fundamentally, they have given up on this region for any kind of liberal democratic institutions and political structure.  Consequently, let the people govern themselves the way they did for centuries, as long as they stay away within the US and European borders and don’t export their problems to the western States…

Do anyone believe that, once a religious Islamic political party, within a majority of the population of its sect (Sunni or Chiaa), will ever lose a “democratic” election? The Turkish MB are increasing their margin at every election, and the case of Chiaa Iran is blatant. What kind of democracy are we talking about in these cases?

I think that I am expressing the implicit opinion of the secular forces, and all the minority religious sects, whether Christian, Moslem, or otherwise. The western society and political elite have given up on the people of the Arab/Islamic countries, particularly in the Near-East region.  The next target is Syria, but this is another story.

All the States neighboring Syria know that a civil war in Syria will seriously affect the stability of their regimes (dictatorial, absolute monarchy, or otherwise…)  The neighboring States to Syria, including Turkey and Israel, know that the assurances of the US, European Union, the pseudo States in the Arabic/Iranian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia are crap:  They have no leverage in taming any mass upheavals, and worse, the spreading of civil wars within their own countries:  Arms are abundant, and the borders are long…

Note 1: You may read the precursor of the practical understanding between US and Turkish Moslem Brotherhood

Note 2: This post was partially inspired by the editorial of Sarkis Naoum in the Lebanese daily Al Nahar.

What’s going in Hama (Syria)? Western States selective memories: Stability is NOT synonymous with continuity of political systems!

What’s going in the fourth largest city Hama (700,000 citizens) in Syria?  News were too overestimating the number of demonstrators at 500,000 marchers! Nevertheless, it is an indication that Hama is against the Assad regime, stock and lock.  Hama is probably the most strategic city in Syria for internal logistics, located smack in the center of Syria.

The French daily Liberation reported from a nurse working in the hospital in Hama: “On July 3rd, the hospital received 35 civilians killed by live ammunitions.  The people in Hama are in a state of rage.  They used to demonstrate peacefully after closing shops and on Friday.  Right now, they refuse to leave their city and let the brutal Syrian security forces enter easily.  The citizens are burning tires and setting up barricades.”

Robert Fisk wrote in the British The Independence: “The cycle in Syria is closing on.  On February 1982, the regime of Hafez Assad opened fire with tanks on the civilians in Hama for many days and killed over 10,000 at least.  This time around, the revolt is not concentrated on Islamists.  The people have rekindled the indignities (zul) they suffered three decades ago.”  A hundred families have fled Hama, as long as fleeing is not the trend, as in Jisr al Shaghour.

Last month, the Syrian regime decided not to encircle or enter Hama:  Hama streets were left to the peaceful insurgents.  A couple of days ago, Bashar al Assad decided to send over 100 tanks to surround Hama and its suburbs, and resumed searching every house… Lately, the US ambassador and the French ambassador decided to visit Hama, on the eve of Friday prayers.  Are they trying to send the strong message:  Syria regime, “No pasaran into Hama”!

Sarkis Naoum, the editorialist in the Lebanese daily al Nahar, wrote: “There is no real survival for the ethnic minorities in the Middle-East, as there is no stability for the brutal majority rules”. (This is a most important topic to be discussed at length)

It is time to comprehend that stability is Not synonymous with continuity, and vice versa.  For example, Lebanon political structure has been instituted to be a Non-State for over 70 years, and still going “strong”, but Lebanon barely witnessed any kind of stability for any length of time.  Military coups and civil wars are score, if we count the unofficially recognized coup and civil wars.

The dictators and absolute monarchs and their oligarchies were happy noticing the heads of the Western leaders nodding approval that the continuity of their regimes is synonymous to stability of the western interests.  The western leaders knew better, but it is so convenient to dealing with dictators “who deliver” on biased non-discussed contracts, by any representative of the people and at the expense of the wealth of a developing country.

Israel is serious about launching its nth preemptive war, early this September for several reasons:

First, Israel knows that war (the only activity that Israel did better than anything else before the 2006 war) is the best diplomatic means to delaying the establishment of a Palestinian State:  A war before the UN vote will delay the issue and Israel will gain more time for proving that a Palestinian State is a geo-political non-feasibility…

Second, Israel will try again, using a different military strategy to weakening the military might of Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is the most scary enemy to Israel because no system can destroy short and medium-range missiles, landing by the hundreds on cities, towns, airfields, and military infrastructure and production complexes…

Third, Israel will coax Syria to respond and take the initiative to demolishing the regime security forces centers and headquarter of Bashar al Assad.  Consequently, facilitating regime change and weakening the strategic links of Iran in that region.

Fourth, Israel is about to get the green light for that preemptive war from the US and Turkey.  This triumvirate has reached an agreement that the Moslem Brotherhood parties sharing power in Egypt and Syria is good to business and stability.

Iran wishes that Israel will refrain from coaxing the Syrian regime into a war, simply because any war with Syria will change the name of the game with its strategic ally.  Iran wants to agree with the US, China, and Russia that the most plausible alternative in the short-term is a resumption of benign insurgencies, and the Syrian regime not going overboard with its repressions.  I believe Israel beg to foolishly differ:  Israel military infrastructure and production is the strongest catalyst for engaging in preemptive wars:  It is good for business and for the military budget in periods of internal crisis.

Lebanon will endure harsh periods whether Bashar regime succeed or fail.  Especially, if a civil war sweeps Syria:  Lebanon social structure is so drastically divisive.  Would the new Lebanese government take seriously the imminent next preemptive war and vigorously coordinate the defensive strategy among the resistance, the army, and the people?

Frankly, what may delay the preemptive war in early September is a strong stand by Egypt (State and people) and a change of regime in Syria.  I believe, this time around, a preemptive war launched by Israel will be catastrophic to this Zionist State, economically, politically, and militarily.  Definite political and social changes will get roots in the Middle-East.  “An Arab Autumn Revolt” will spread its fire and seeds for freedom and democratic systems.

Note: It is plausible that Israel might advance its D-Day as Syria tanks enter Hama:  Thus, fomenting a civil war that was not forthcoming.




March 2023

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