Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Shebaa Farms

I have a position: I am voting today (June 7, 2009)

It is 4 a.m. and in four hours I am going to vote; I will be giving a ride to my parents, both are way over 80 years; we will vote as the urns open and we will resume our day, flushed with hope that a new bright dawn is breaking out.

It has been a tough month, fraught with international meddling in our internal politics. It has been disgusting listening to the frequent US reminders that the Obama Administration will deny Lebanon aids if the Lebanese fails the wishes of Hillary Clinton to maintaining the status quo. I didn’t hear Hillary warning the Israelis that Netanyahu and Israel ultra right wings are roadblock to peace in the region. I am voting against Hillary for humiliating the Lebanese.

It has been nauseating witnessing the Saudi Arabia monarchy pouring over $300 millions to buy off the vote of 10,000 citizens who might make a difference in the majority of the Parliament by a couple more of deputies.  I am voting against the monarchic, obscurantist, and Wahhabi extremist oligarchic system.

The Lebanese citizens have been subjugated by foreign threats of “black listing” Lebanon as a State “supporting terrorism” and, accordingly, enforcing economic and financial embargo because the opposition is proud of the acquired regained dignity for standing tall against Israel’s blackmailing military maneuvers and frequent incursions into our land.  I am voting against foreign interference in our regained independence as a Nation.

The Lebanese have been subdued by a few internal confessional and “colonial minded” political parties, which own most of the media, that Lebanon is squandering its independence, autonomy of decision, and its future “promised” aids to balloon to over $60 billions, a debt that each new-born has to pay $14,000 to satisfy a defunct service economy within a crumbling capitalist monetary policy. I am voting for the cancellation of foreign debts tendered on political grounds.

Behind all that smoke screen I am confident that Lebanon will be governed by a unified block that will strengthen our autonomy and defend the Constitution.  Lebanon regained partial dignity after Israel’s withdrawal from part of our land in May 2000 without any pre-conditions. Lebanon regained another partial dignity by the withdrawal of the Syrian troops in April 2005. Lebanon will regain its total dignity by the coming to power of the block unified under the motto “A unified Lebanon, at peace with Syria and intent of safeguarding the rights of the Palestinians to return to their homeland, can resist and win over the isolationist weak-minded forces, constantly seeking foreign interventions to maintain our social, religious, and political caste system.”   The opposition forces will not cow and will stand tall against the humiliating dictates that refuse change and reforms in Lebanon.

Behind all that smoke screen that “political security and social stability will attract investment for the re-construction of a viable Lebanon” we have learned that money never flowed into countries flapping in the wind but to strong and unified States.

Behind all that smoke screen that “Israel will finally stop all plans to invade Lebanon or hold on to the Shebaa Farms and the Hills of Kfarshouba” we intend that the water of Lebanon will no longer flow into the sea so that Israel put claim on wasted resources; that a clean environment will be the policy of the land, tiny but worth preserving for giant spirits recovering from centuries of indignities.

The struggle is long and fraught with dangers for a secular and free Lebanon. I can deal with climbing summits; I cannot backtrack into obscure precipices. Today I am at peace. I can see a future worth fighting for; I can feel a dignity that can move mountains; I can reach out for every Lebanese to re-establishing communication among closed communities and vent out the stagnate air.  A powerful sun is infiltrating foul enclosed spirits decaying for three decades; I am confident that cleansed mold will have tough time sticking.  Sweet revolution, it is a good day to advance and face the glorious sun of change and reform.

The Third Republic of Lebanon: The Tayyar of Michel Aoun (June 1, 2009)

 

            The formal and extensive visits of Michel Aoun to Iran and then to Syria had three purposes.  First, it was symbolic of “breaking bread and sharing salt” which meant that confidence is established and hidden agendas will be stated clearly among friends. The second purpose was to focus attention on the ethnic and religious minorities so that Iran and Syria would exercise more leverage to preserving the persecuted minorities in Iraq. The third purpose was to exposing the draft program of the Third Republic that need to be instituted in Lebanon in order to relieve Iran and Syria from constant worries on the potential political and strategic orientation of Lebanon; thus, relying on Iran and Syria to exercise their influence toward stabilizing an environment of security and peace within Lebanon.

            General and Deputy Aoun had absorbed the various failures of other Christian Lebanese leaders for establishing a lasting stable political system that would save Lebanon of recurring civil wars.  A unified Christian front in Lebanon is not enough to bringing peace and security; this fact Michel Aoun experienced when he was appointed Prime Minister in 1988 and ended in his exile to France.  The most striking recent experiment was the tenure of ex-President Emile Lahoud.

            Lahoud intended to eradicate corruption in the State while maintaining strategic relations with Syria and supporting the Lebanese resistance in the south against Israel’s occupation.  Lahoud failed in his attempts for reforms of the social and political system because he had no civilian political movement and had no previous communication with the deputies in the Parliament.  Lahoud managed to press forward on the corruption front in the first 3 years until Syria realized that the reforms were going too far and driving its Lebanese political supporters to frantic seizures. The incarcerated officials indicted with corruption and stealing the treasury were released from prison and Rafic Hariri returned as Prime Minister to resume his service and real estate economy based on heavy borrowing.

As Syria was under pressure in 2005 to withdraw its troops then it decided to extend the tenure of Lahoud another 3 years.  The UN resolution 1559 for Syria withdrawal, the Lebanese army to expand to the southern borders, and Hezbollah to turn over its heavy artillery to the army pointed to a dramatic clash which culminated in the assassination of Rafic Hariri.  External interventions bolstered the internal confessional forces to side track reforms and forced the Presidency into a defensive corner; thus, not only clipping any remnant of official power but eliminating the role of the Presidency and the Christian necessity for a stable Lebanon among its religious affiliations.

 

What is the Third Republic and what is its strategy? First, the new Republic will bolster the rights, duties, and responsibilities of the President of the Republic and reduce the exclusive privileges of the Prime Minister to administering several “black boxes” such as emergency funds, development and construction council, repatriation of Lebanese refugees’ box, and disaster box that should be returned to the relevant ministries.  These reforms do not require any amendments to the Taef Constitution.

 

Second, the Third Republic wants to desist on reducing the economy of Lebanon to the service sector that it can no longer compete with newer and powerful centers in the region like Dubai, Cyprus, Jordan, and Egypt.  The economy has to revert to basics and develop on industrial and agricultural production, exploiting our water resources, managing better our electrical power generation, and expanding and modernizing our communication facilities. Health for all and education for all at affordable costs are priorities.

 

Third, the reduction of our heavy borrowing policy that reached over 60 billions dollars with the purpose of settling the Palestinians in Lebanon in return of canceling this mighty debt will be tackled in earnest.  I lean to the possibility that if negotiations with the lending parties are not successful then the new government will decree the cancellation of any lending that was politically motivated.  I doubt that reactions would extend beyond the rhetorical recriminations because the case is strong that Lebanon had no collateral economical generation potentials for these generous lending.  As a consequence, the Third Republic will put an end to any international policies attempts to reside the Palestinians in Lebanon.

 

Fourth, the Third Republic will relieve Hezbollah from the constant pressures of international plans targeted at coercing the disarmament of the resistance by coordinate activities with non-patriotic governments that are wiling to cohabitate with the enemy Israel.  This united front will force Israel to desist from any further incursions into Lebanon.

 

Fifth, the Third Republic will move ahead with an alternative election law based on proportionality and revisiting laws that deny equality between genders and secular national civil status laws.

 

Sixth, the Third Republic will demand joint negotiations with Syria relative peace agreements with Israel after recapturing the Shebaa Farms and the Hills of Kfarshouba.

 

The first step in the strategy was for the Christians to regain confidence and stand up to their responsibilities and acknowledging that Israel is the enemy.  This was done.  The second step was an alliance with Hezbollah which defeated many plans to resurrect the specter of the civil war.  The third step was direct contacts with States as representing the largest Christian Parliamentary bloc and opening channels of communications and entente.  The fourth step is wining the majority seats in the Parliament.

 

Lebanon Parliament was expanded in 1992 to include 128 deputies; 64 Christians and 64 Moslems.  The election in June 7 is calling on 3, 260,000 voters to participate and most probably more than 50% will effectively vote. Among the eligible voters of over 21 years of age 888,000 are Moslem Shiaas (27 deputies in total), 874,000 Moslem Sunnis (27 deputies), 698,000 Christian Maronites (34 deputies), 243,000 Christian Greek Orthodox (concentrated in the districts of Ashrafieh and Koura), 186, 000 Moslem Druze (8 deputies concentrated in the districts of Chouf, Aley, and Hasbaya), 163, 000 Greek Catholics, and dozen of other Christian minorities and Armenians (concentrated in Ashrafieh, Burj Hammoud, and Anjar).  The Moslem Alawis of about 27,000 are entitled to 2 deputies.

            In the previous election of 2005, the Tayyar of Michel Aoun without the support of any alliances managed to secure 20 Christian deputies representing 70% of the Christian voters but the Lebanese political system denied this large bloc any governmental representation for 4 years until the Dawha agreement.  The law of this election that correspond to the law of 1960 divides Lebanon into 26 districts called “Kada2” and most of the Christians candidates do not have to rely on Moslem voters for their election.  With the alliance of the “Marada Party” of Suleiman Frangieh in Zghorta, Betroun, and Koura the Tayyar can secure additional 8 deputies.  With the alliance of the Hezbollah the Tayyar can add 3 deputies in the district of B3abda and two more in Jezzine. Thus, if the Tayyar of Michel Aoun sustains the previous election victory then he should expect no less than 27 deputies and over 40 Christian deputies allied to the Tayyar or one third of the Parliament. If we add to this Christian bloc the deputies of Hezbollah and AMAL (over 24 deputies) and the Syrian National Social Party (about 4 deputies) and the Druze and Sunni deputies then the opposition will clearly win the majority of the Parliament.  Thus the Prime Minister will be selected from the opposition and most of the key ministerial posts would revert to the opposition along with a reshuffling of the main first order administrative officials.

 

            The Tayyar is taking the shape of a popular revolution intended to defeating the privileges of the feudal, caste, confessional, and monopolist system. It has no alternative but to follow the legitimate democratic route under this complex social diversity.

 

            As I mentioned in another post, if the Christians do not emerge in this election with a unified and powerful centralized bloc then the chances are that a system based on splitting power among Shiaa, Sunni, and Christians (muthalateh) would be inevitable, even at the expense of a short civil war.  Most probably the civil war would start between Shiaas and Sunnis but will quickly degenerate to fighting between Christians and Sunnis because the Shiaas have already their cantons. This alternative system would be legitimate demographically and the Christian would contend with third of the administration and political power offices.

 

Note 1: My spirit went to statesman General Aoun who said once the Syrian troops crossed the borders in April 2005 “Syria is now out of Lebanon.  I have no qualms with Syria anymore. This is the time to open a new page in our relations”.  The Tayyar has a TV channel and a blog; it has established a radio channe a couple of days ago; but I am under the impression that, excluding the members of the Tayyar, the supporters are on the one way communication receiving end. The brochure of the program of the Tayyar has no phone numbers, no email addresses and no central mailing address. I once sent a hand written letter to Deputy Ibrahim Kanaan and it had to go through two intermediaries of the Tayyar; obviously, I never received a reply. 

 

Note 2: I am suggesting to the Tayyar to install central mediating centers in each district so that deputies would handle the various complaints from their respective constituencies, sort of “wassit al kada2”.

Bi-weekly report (#8) on Lebanon (January 15, 2009)

 

            A couple of rockets were fired yesterday from Shebaa on northern Israel and another five rockets last week on Naharia; Israel responded in kind.  No group claimed the attack, simply because no groups in Lebanon did it.  These two salves of rockets were CIA initiated because Shebaa is completely under Israeli control and last week salve was fired in areas under the total control of the UN troops.  If we know that the UN contingents are constituted of 22 States and each contingent has its own intelligence services and connected to their Embassies then it is doubtful that the UN is ignorant of who fired the rockets.  The UN peace keeping forces know who fired the rockets and they should be investigating the elements connected to the CIA.

            Why the CIA would fire rockets in northern Israel?  My contention is that there are two plausible reasons; first, Bush Junior would like very much Israel to try again to weaken Hezbollah before he exits power but Israel is no longer in such mood: even tiny Gaza with no exits for supplies has resisted for 20 days and is still launching rockets on the neighboring Zionist colonies.  The second more plausible reason is to open the airwaves of the multimedia for the regurgitation of the midget politicians in the March 14 coalition.  These insipid and odorless defeatist politicians had nothing to say during the horrors of Gaza; they certainly would like Hamas to be defeated, and some of them would love to have over one million Palestinians dead (they performed hand to hand genocide in the Palestinian camps of Sabra and Shatila in 1982); they would not dare join the US and Israeli positions because the internal situation in Lebanon is too volatile for stupid commentaries.  Thus, the two salves of rockets permitted the feather weight politicians to reiterate that the government is the sole authority for ordering military activities.  Well, they had their 15 minutes of babblings and they are thanking the US for that opportunity.  Personally, I think that although the Israeli government didn’t take these rockets seriously, the Zionist colonists in northern Israel must have recalled their plights on July 2006 and urged their government to put an end to the attacks in Gaza.

            General Aoun lambasted the “potential” politicians who are pretending to form a “moderate” or “medial” or “independent” group for the next Parliamentary election.  Deputy Aoun said “How can you be moderate between ending the embezzlement of the finances and allowing a few stealing to go on?  How can you be moderate between stabilizing the political climate with Syria and permitting a few unreliable activities of animosity against Syria?”

            The Ex-President of the Palestinians in the West Bank, Mahmoud Abbass, dared proclaim that “Egypt, the USA, and Israel assured him that the military operation in Gaza should not last one week to exterminate Hamas”. How stupid can a politician be?  Anyone with the word “Abbass” attached to his name should quickly change it; otherwise people will regard him as stupid:  Abbass connote Stupid and Traitor to his people.

            Qatar managed to hold a formal meeting of the Arab foreign ministers; only Moubarak of Egypt, the Wahhabi monarch of Saudi Arabia, and the dictator of Tunisia refused the invitation. Lovely, at least this Arab summit, without the heavy weight traitors amidst them, has a chance to raise the flag of human dignity and boldly face the genocidal plans on the Palestinians by the Bush Junior Administration and the European Union leaders.  Now that the masks have been totally dropped by Moubarak of Egypt and the Wahhabi monarch of Saudi Arabia, it is hard to envision Seniora PM of Lebanon and Saad (of the Hariri clan) resuming their patriotic declarations and their claim of honest brokers for the stability and peace of Lebanon..  I like to remind Seniora and Saad and Samir that even Dracula Condo Rice felt terribly ashamed when Bush Junior ordered her not to vote for the UN resolution 1820 for a complete cease fire in Gaza; she simply didn’t cast a vote!

            Hilary Clinton insists on not negotiating with democratically elected Hamas in Gaza. What Barak Obama meant by change?  How Obama is to change anything if the cat ate his tongue and the Zionist devil bought his soul?

            The Horror!  This Silence of the powerful; this Silence of the “good guys” in the “Land of the Free” watching a genocide in progress.  The Horror! The Silence of an Obama leading a Silent majority while over 500 babies died and 3,000 seriously injured under debris and by phosphorous burning bombs and the genocide of famine, lack of potable water, and of medicines going strong for 20 days..

Are Free-Trade Zones in the Middle East being worked out? (December 1, 2008)

I like to envision the creations of 11 free-trade zones in the Middle East, among the States of Turkey, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, and Cyprus.  Why free-trade zones?

Most of the recognized States by the United Nations in the Middle East were not naturally and normally constituted, and the borders are artificially delimited: The States  were divided up by the mandatory European nations of Britain, France and the active participation of the USA, after the Ottoman (Turkish) Empire lost the war in the WWI by siding with Germany.

Consequently, there are many ethnic, emotional, economic, linguistic, and historical intermingling and rivalries among these States.  Since military confrontations are out of the question, and since daily trade and social relations are binding certain bordering zones then, creative alternatives should be studied to form viable trade zones that otherwise would be left unmanaged and precariously volatile.

First, between the States of Turkey and Syria there are many legitimate claims that should be resolved on their borders.  There is the possibility of several free-trade zones such as (Cilicia, Iskandaron, and Lazkieh (Latakieh)) and the Kurdish common zone of Hassakeh and Diar Baker and Van.

Second, between Turkey and Iraq there is an ideal free-trade zone in their common Kurdish region around Mosul.

Third, between Iraq and Iran two zones can be contemplated (the common Kurdish region, and the region around the Persian/Arabic Gulf).

Fourth, between Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait the Basra region could alleviate recurring conflicts.

Fifth, between Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, where their frontiers intersect artificially, a free-trade zone would encourage commerce in that desolate area.

Sixth, between Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon there are shared bordered around the Golan Heights.

Seventh, between Syria and Lebanon there are potential two zones (the northern Lebanese frontiers of Akkar, and the south-eastern Bekaa Valley with Shebaa Farms).

Eight, between Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, and Cyprus a free-trade zone in Cyprus would iron out differences and encourage maritime commerce.

What are the processes for initiating these free-trade zones?

After a period of three years of ironing out details and instituting regulations with special passports or identity cards for the inhabitants of the zones, then all the zones between two states can be merged.

It is only normal that contiguous zones common to three States could eventually be merged and a belt of uninterrupted contiguous zones would form the natural borders of the Middle East.

As was done in Europe, let commerce and industry form the basis for these zones, which should generate rational cooperative decisions for our future.

The concept of a free-zone is to creating a magnate cities, self-autonomous city, with laws and regulations agreed upon among the States.

Ultimately, an economic union could emerge, based on a set of procedures and processes that works, which form a firm ground to negotiating common interests, and disseminating common laws and regulations valid in the various lands.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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