Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Single Cause fallacy

Notes and tidbits posted on FB and Twitter. Part 149

Note: I take notes of books I read and comment on events and edit sentences that fit my style. I pay attention to researched documentaries and serious links I receive. The page is long and growing like crazy, and the sections I post contains a month-old events that are worth refreshing your memory.

Human factors design of products or services should alleviating the repetitive musculo-skeletal disorders by reducing efforts, vibration, and proper handling of tools and equipment, designing for proper postures, minimizing static positions.

A designer should keep in mind that any testing and evaluation study should factor in the condition that a worker or an employee is operating 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, and for many years.

This Scapegoat tendency of Single Cause fallacy that alters the veracity of many studies and decisions.

Our problem is that we lack identity; we lack a sense of belonging not to a land, but rather to humanity. You became utterly convinced that you cannot change, and that seeing people die is part of life or of a bigger political game, a natural sacrifice for the fight of power and money.

Discredited certitude? Unregulated capitalism (liberal capitalism) is plainly discredited; communism was discredited way before 1989; the doctrine of the Christian religion was discredited since the French Revolution in 1787 ; Islam was discredited less than a century after the Prophet’s death,  but can religion be eradicated from the spirit of the masses?

History demonstrated that glorious periods in civilization around the world are usually focused in a country, a city, a university, or a center. And for a short time of peaceful coexistence.

Glorious periods are also focused on a hobby (a lifetime love affair) such as in architecture, painting, sculpting, music, literature, sciences, math, philosophy, singing, dancing, acting, movie, and so on.

There are calls to start filtering and controlling this mass of information on the net for untenable reasons that are meant to hide the real frightening reality that is weakening the hold of central powers and multinational institutions on the kinds of knowledge we should be learning.

Women can shatter males Autistic sexual perception of love…

Having “faith” is used by adolescents to shirk the effort of using their brain when faced with despair and the complex world of comprehending new realities. Thus, adolescents have always been susceptible to extreme positions and have been used as logs to burn in the incinerator of martyrdom.

Man has survived because he was too ignorant to know how to realize his wishes (desires). Now that he can realize his wishes, he must then either change them or perish“.

It has become so hard to behave as the usual Male after ISIS grabbed the flag of manhood

It was against the background of genocide in the name of “European civilization” that Africans in the Diaspora who had been shipped from Africa and enslaved in the West Indies and in the Americas realized that the solution to Africa’s people both at home and abroad was Pan-Africanism.

Cherry picking tendency and Feature-Positive Effect

And the deceitful checklist

The Absence of a feature is much harder to detect than its presence: We do place greater emphasis on what exist than on what is absent.

What exist means a lot more than what is missing.

For example, we fail to appreciate the absence of wars or when we arrived safely as we reach home.

For example, articles, particularly scientific articles that “confirm” a hypothesis are overwhelmingly readily published than those that “disprove” the hypothesis as false.

Actually, no Nobel prize was awarded to scientists who proved a hypothesis was false!

Although both confirmation and falsification of a hypothesis are scientifically valuable and valid in the same rank of importance.

Actually, disproving a hypothesis is the basis for any paradigm shift in every disciple.

Otherwise, our knowledge will be stuck in the Medieval Age.

It is well known that it is our belief system that is the real hindrance to progress and change.

How can you change paradigms if not by proving wrong what is already accepted as “true”?

All disciplines brag of their outcomes.

And the professionals are well-equipped to tell us what worth it did to mankind.

And yet, the professionals always fail to tell us what they didn’t achieve, or had gone wrong, just to show us how indispensable their methods are.

This is the Pure Cherry picking tendency.

For example, drug researchers and producers of antibiotics are celebrated while the huge success of anti-smoking activist campaigns is ignored.

Administrative departments in public and private institutions never communicate what they could not achieve for the institution.

Have you ever wondered “what happened to the left-over cherries?” These far more frequent failed projects and missed goals?

Have ever attempted to double-check targets instead of computing to the nearest cent cost/benefit accounts?

Mostly, the original goal fade while tending to what is tangible and easy to compute and collecting data.

Mostly, what we do is shoot an arrow and then draw a bull’s eye around our target.

Read: The Art of Thinking Clear

For example

This Scapegoat tendency of Single Cause fallacy

Tolstoy humored the gravity cause of the fallen apple. He enumerated two dozen possibilities of why an apple does fall “And no thing is the cause”

“People are Not the masters of their own destinies” as Aristotle proclaimed. There exists a complex network of influencing factors.

People are the masters of what Fortune and coincidences made them to take advantage of, making the best of what come to them and what they came to be.

Genetic predisposition, upbringing, education, levels of hormones, brain structure, attractive features, stature, social status… all contributed to what you are and were capable of achieving.

For example, unprofitable companies don’t get corporate loans in order to improve.

Though, the more loans the company is extended the wider the rate of returns, the bigger cash cushion, and the better they can stay afloat and much longer than the companies who are refused loans. And the financial world claim that the profitable and best managed companies are those considered best equipped to receive loans.

The company that went bankrupt do not show up in any study sample group of how these “debt-ridden” companies may fail.

Suppose that due to ill side effects you decide to take an “important” pill irregularly.

This group of  “irregular taking” patient is categorized as “irregular intake” group in evaluation studies of a drug.

The subjects who vanished from the sample (the “irregular intake”) are the ones who should have made the difference in evaluation studies  according to proper procedures and protocols.

The well-intentioned group who carried out the prescription according to procedures and protocols as a minority of all the patients who suffered from side effects. But the evaluation wants to hide the side-effects part of a drug.

Everything in nature and human interactions are intrinsically connected and trying had to discover a single cause is an abnormal behavior.

The Via Negativa concept is “We know things through what it is Not” and yet, we consistently focus on what is only significant.

Warren Buffet said: “I learned to avoid difficult business problems

Read: The Art of Thinking Clear


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

August 2020
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