Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Sudan

More Copper Reserves for China (April 30, 2009)

 

            The price of copper was forecasted to fall 20% this year in this economic recession but it increased 50% instead:  China is willing to pay around $5,000 the ton of copper instead of buying more US Treasury Bonds.  China has purchased 375,000 tons of copper in March and increasing each month. The Chinese Central Bank governor Xiaochuan view the US financial famine to a black hole since the US is about to print more dollars to paying the Chinese State, thus practically devaluing the US currency and reselling the Chinese more hot air.  The Chinese are not about to re-value the Yuan before the US and the European Union restore credibility and confidence in the financial system.

            Among the many industrial usage of copper is the manufacture of hybrid engines in cars that China is putting in its market.  Italy has been promoting hybrid cars for a while and many more gas stations are filling methane gas.  Methane does not emit carbon dioxide.  The driver would start and accelerate on regular gas and then shift into methane combustion.  As a matter of fact, the Green Peace advocates regards the European Union policy of selling carbon dioxides permits to the heavier polluters is not reducing the CO2 in the atmosphere.  For example, Germany has reduced its polluting energy consumption by 15% by relying on Aeolians, solar panels, and biomass; thus, Germany would sell 15% reduction in pollution to Poland and Slovenia that are still relying on coal.

I read in a post the following information: 62% of the World’s copper is used for the production of small denomination coins such as the penny. 84% of small denomination coins are classed by the World’s Governments as missing – it is presumed that members of the public have stashed the coins as savings. On average, each person in the World has stashed $22.34 worth of copper in small denomination coins.

            Goldman Sachs predicts that the GNP of China will surpass Japan by 2010 and the USA before 2030.  India will surpass Japan by 2030 and become third after the USA.  Brazil will be fifth after Japan in 2030.

            China is using its two trillion dollars surplus to accumulating reserves in aluminum, zinc, nickel, titanium, indium and rhodium so that it may resume its industrial acceleration once the current crisis is stabilized. This policy of purchasing minerals instead of US Treasury Bonds is compatible with China recommendation of creating an international banknote indexed on the prices of a basket of raw materials as was proposed by John Maynard Keynes at Bretton Woods in 1944; the “bancor” of Keynes was based then on 30 raw materials.

I suggest in a previous post “The Third World War is Tolling” the folowing: 

“First, the developed States have to agree on another tangible standard (like gold) for currencies.  Gold would not do because the US has abolished it in 1967 because all the gold in the world could not sustain the huge amount of paper dollars circulating or intended to circulate around the world.  The alternative is a basket of depleting minerals that are essentials for manufacturing and production.  The processed minerals do not have to be rare but very essentials for development.  The US can agree to this idea since it has huge reserves in many important minerals.

Second, all the States that can account for at least 3% of all curency circulation should join an “International Money Printing Council” with tight control and monitoring creteria.  Any combined States with over 40% of cash money shares in the global market should have a veto power.

Failing a convincing and sustainable agreement for monetary stability the Third World War is altready in the planning stage as the easiest and quickest way out of that morass.  Only in major wars do printed money with no tangible backing has mythical values.  No, the next region for the war scene is not Iran: no European or US soldiers want to fight in this “cursed region”.  It won’t be Afghanistan: if Afghanistan was worth it then Bush Junior would not have invaded Iraq before stabilizing Afghanistan.  It won’t be North Korea: it is bordering China.  The batlefield will not be in any area bordering Russia.  It won’t be the Congo River zone: no Western soldiers is about to step in this infested and contagious disease plagued region with AIDS consuming 30% of the population. The next world war is in Sudan, this continent/State rich in oil and all kinds of minerals”.

Actually, Sudan is the focus of investment for China in the last two decades.

The Century of Islam, (March 11, 2009)

 

The 20th century was the communist century, particularly of the Soviet Union and China, as the nemesis for the liberal and capitalist world. 

The 21st century was predicted to be the century of Liberal Capitalist America after the fall of the Berlin Wall: “Liberal capitalism” was advancing globalization and the free flow of capitals to national markets by international financial companies. The prediction of the end of “History” and the implementation of US-type of “democracy”quickly ended with the worst financial crisis of all time (2008), and the emergence of many players in world economics and politics. 

 

 After the September 9, 2001 Twin Towers attack, supposedly planned by al Qaeda, the Bush Jr. Administration spewed his venom for a decade on Islam, as the major enemy to democracy and a stable world order.

This century is showing the definite characteristics that it is of Islam. 

The superpowers have targeted Islam to be the main nemesis for stable world order: 

The superpowers need to create a focused enemy for its people.

Before I broach on current events and realities, a little history is in point.  Islam was the world civilization for over 9 centuries.  Three centuries of Eastern Arab Empire that was first located in Damascus and then in Baghdad.  The Arab/Islam Empire shifted its center of gravity in the next two centuries to the west or the Maghreb Empire, and particularly in Spain or Andalusia.  

Two centuries of Islamic domination were marshaled by the Ottoman Moslem Empire in Turkey in the 16th and 17th centuries; another two centuries of the Moslem Mogul Empire in India, and one century of the Islamic Safavid Empire in Iran in the 18th century. 

These civilizations waned after Portugal and Spain circumnavigated the Oceans to bypass Egypt for direct trade with India and Far East Asia. In fact, the various Crusaders campaigns failed because they could not conquer Egypt, where the major trade routes intersected before reaching Europe, the main target and purpose of the crusaders financial backers.  Christian Europe owes it to the Moslem Empires to be saved from the multitudes of invasions originated in Mongolia and Central Asia by the Mogul and Tatar hordes.

 

After the Indonesian dictator Suharto died, his successor Bahr el Din Habibi invested over one billion dollars to develop a small civilian airplane.  The “Financial Times” mocked the new President for investing on airplanes that can be purchased with much higher quality and performance. The West was purposely belittling what they perceived as the new challenges coming from the largest Moslem Nation in matter of knowledge and technology. Habibi meant to build new generations of Moslems that can manufacture instead of being simple consumers.  Habibi said “Money comes and goes. Human brains can be purchased but how can we secure loyalty to a nation and to citizens?”

            The Ottoman Empire was later weakened by relying too heavily on its mercenaries the “Inkisharia” (soldiers raised from foreign slaves), the Arab Empire was destroyed from the interior by relying on foreign mercenaries.

            Pakistan had to build the first Moslem atomic bomb in order to challenge India’s bomb.  As Zhu Fikar Ali Bhutto said “we will have to build the atomic bomb even if we end up eating grass”. Actually, Bhutto was overthrown and put to death because he challenged the West for building the bomb.

            Iran is facing constant pressure from the West for manufacturing its own arms, munitions, missiles, atomic power generators, and space satellites.

            India has more Moslems than Pakistan, Indonesia, and Egypt combined.  The middle classes of Indian Moslems and Chinese Moslems are nearly as large as the total USA population.

            Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Nigeria are almost continents of their own in size and populations and they are acting and behaving as self-sufficient nations. 

The West has to start trading knowledge and technologies without any pre-conditions if it seeks peace, security, stability, and prosperity.  War is a losing option for both parties and no one can hope to emerge winner anyway

I have mentioned in several articles that the five nations in the UN with veto power are negotiating to partition Sudan for its huge raw materials, oil reserves, and water resources.  This adventure is doomed to fail unless they negotiate a fair deal with the people in Sudan and the most populous Moslem nations in Africa such as Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya in Africa.

Note 1: The “Arab Spring” revolts against dictators and absolute monarchies have set the tone for democratic systems in the Arabic States.  The major underlying factor for this mass indignity is the realization that western governments encouraged dictator and absolute monarchy regimes for an entire century in order to maintaining the “Moslem” people subjugated and unable to grow and develop. 

Note 2: Sudan had a referendum for partition, but it does not seem that problems will vanish any time soon in Sudan:  The exploitation of oil and mineral resources will resume unabated, and turmoil in north and south Sudan will be enhanced even further.

Bi-Weekly report (#14) on the Middle East and Lebanon (March 7, 2009)

 

            Three major activities are running concurrently. First, there is a flurry of diplomatic trips initiated by the US Administration to Japan, Korea, China, Russia, Syria, Egypt, Pakistan, and the Middle East. Second, there is this UN persistence to bringing Sudan’s President Hassan Al Basheer to face trial for crimes against humanity. Third, we notice a serious quest by the “Arab Moderate” States, like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to patch up political difference with Syria and the Palestinian resistance forces..

  

You might think that the new US Administration is intent on containing a flammable world and establishing peace and stability through diplomatic means. It might be partially true on the face of it.  The long term purpose is preparing a major war in order to partitions Sudan into colonial zones of influence to exploit fully this vast State.

            Sudan is practically a virgin continent in superficies, raw materials, oil, water, cultivable land, under populated, and “poorly mismanaged” for the greed of the superpowers.  The plan to partition Sudan has been worked out many decades ago and all these civil wars and strife that the Sudanese have been subjugated to were mainly foreign instigation and meddling to setting the ground for an excuse to partition it.

            In order for the US, China, France, Britain, and Russia to be successful in their enterprise they have first to agree on the zones of influence in Sudan and manage the various “hot zones” that are dispersing their efforts, militarily and financially. The main critical area to cool down is Pakistan/India and thus, Pakistan is to be strengthened in order to regain control of all the regions, bordering east Afghanistan, which Taliban and Moslem extremists are now administering.  The US General in Afghanistan claimed recently that only 10% of Afghanistan is the hotbed of 80% of “terrorist activities” against the US coalition forces. Thus, once Pakistan is able to control its border frontiers with Afghanistan then the military adventure can be won.

            The second “hot zone” is settling the Israeli/Palestinian two-state initiative, on a “temporary” piece of land for the Palestinians, which has been sidetracked by the Bush Junior administration for over 7 years.

            The third “hot zone” is finalizing a peace treaty between Syria and Israel with many occupied areas managed as “eco systems”.

            The fourth “hot zone” is how to manage the “expansionist policies” of Iran in the Arab Peninsula, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

            The fifth “hot zone” is how to vacate Iraq with the least amount of casualties and establishing a political system that would be consistent with US policies and purposes in that region.

 

How the superpowers are going to “cool down” the hot spots before partitioning Sudan?  The first step is to bring Pakistan and India into a common purpose for stabilizing their regions. The second step is to force the Arab States, under the Arab League, to put a farcical front of unity; thus Sudan President difficulties should be a foretaste of the destiny of any Arab leaders that dares to defy the superpower plans in Sudan.  Obviously, Al Basheer is not to be brought to trial, the Arab League is working as a unified front on that matter because the UN is not that serious about it in the first place, at least for the time being. A unified “Arab League” would politically pressure Iran into a manageable negotiating attitude by isolating Syria, its main ally in the Middle East, and encouraging Turkey into playing a focused role in that region.  Senator John Kerry has stated recently that the US understands that Syria is not going to dissociate from Iran but that should not be an obstacle to negociating seriously with Syria regarding its occupied land by Israel.

            What about Lebanon? Well, Lebanon is having a fun time preparing for a farcical election just to keep busy and manage Hezbollah politically; Britain has opened direct lines of communications with Hezbollah.

            What about Israel?  Well, Israel has never been but an advanced outpost for the US in particular and Europe in general.  All these internal election gimmicks in Israel are fundamentally excuses to sidetrack policies that the US did not mean to be executed.

The Third World War is loudly tolling (February 27, 2009)

Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar published in February 23, 2009 on “Information Clearing House“ a valuable review on the current economic situation.  It is unfortunately one of so many technical or what I call mechanical explanations of the troubles but no substantive resolutions attached to it.  I will try first to abrige that article and then offer a few solutions.

“In early February, the International Monetary Fund’s chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the world’s advanced economies — the U.S., Western Europe and Japan — are “already in depression”. The UK, Italy, Spain, Korea, Taiwan are in depression. All these States and many more have watched their GDP shrinking sharply. Japan, Ukraine, Ireland, and Iceland have experience shrinking in the two digits. An important fact to remember is that this depression is synchronised and this synchronicity has been made possible by the globalization and accompanying deregulation; the very things that were making workers poorer and the rich, richer. China’s growth rate is estimated to be around 1 percent.

Middle Eastern countries have also been severely affected by the financial crisis. Oil prices that were around 120 dollars last year have come down to around 35dollars this year. Every country has slashed its expenditure with the accompanying slowing growth. For example recently UAE was forced to halt construction projects worth $582 billion or fully 45% of all projects. Dubai’s economy is in free fall, newspapers have reported that more than 3,000 cars sit abandoned in the parking lot at the Dubai Airport, left by fleeing, debt-ridden foreigners (who could in fact be imprisoned if they failed to pay their bills)”. Iranians, Saudis, Iraqis, Kuwaitis and others have also been forced to slow down or freeze many projects. One must not forget that many of these countries’ petro-dollars are re-circulated back into the US and European economies. Those funds are drying-up fast.

Turkey sitting between the Europe and Middle East is also suffering. Turkey has the largest GDP in the Islamic world. Turkey’s GDP was 750 billion in 2008, the GDP of Saudi Arabia was 600 billion dollar for the same period. A once dynamic economy is now negotiating with IMF for help.

The Federal Reserves’ forecast for 2009 shows a contraction of 0.5 to 1.3 percent of the GDP with official unemployment rising to 8.5 or 8.8 percent. Here one should note that this official unemployment rate does not present a true picture, since all those who give-up registering with the unemployment office or are barely working (part-time workers, etc) are not counted as unemployed.

The missing engine of growth

There are four factors that power an economy: consumers, investors, government, and a favourable trade balance. Some economies such as China rely on favourable trade balance and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for their growth. For example according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, from 1990 to 2007, China received $748.4 billion in FDI. At the same time, since its economic liberalization, China has recorded consistent trade surpluses with the world. For example China has registered trade surpluses of $102 billion for 2005 to $295. billion for 2008. China currently has accumulated nearly two trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves.

In contrast to the China, the United States has relied on consumers and the government for its growth. U.S. consumers constitute only about 4.5% of the global world population, yet they bought more than $10 trillion worth of goods and services last year. In contrast the Chinese and Indian consumers combined which account for 40% of the global population bought only $3 trillion worth. The U.S. consumer spending shot up to nearly 77% of the economy.

Japan is once again entering another deflationary period. In deflationary periods, consumers spend less and try to save more. The fear of losing one’s job, the psychology of ever decreasing prices, and general feeling of doom act against free spending by the consumers. The Japanese consumption was only 55% of the GDP as much as the Euro zone. So the Japanese and EU consumers cannot help either.

The US consumers have to get used to lower spending levels for at least a decade, if not for good. American’s standard of living is undergoing a “permanent change” – and not for the better as a result of:

• An $8 trillion negative wealth effect from declining home values.

• A $10 trillion negative wealth effect from weakened capital markets.

• A $14 trillion consumer debt load amid “exploding unemployment”, leading to “exploding bankruptcies.”

“The average American used to be able to borrow to buy a home, send their kids to a good school [and] buy a car,” Davidowitz says. “A lot of that is gone.

The diminishing wealth

For people in general, shares act both as saving and investment. The average person buys share in hope of getting better return than the banks. It is also easy to get in and out of the market. The advancements in information and communication technologies, the costs of buying and selling have fallen steadily in the last decade. So now anyone with a computer can buy and sell shares. This ease of entry enticed an ever increasing number of ordinary people to enter the stock markets.

Now the people have been hit by three disasters. First they lost a lot of money in the housing market. Then they were hit with the collapse of the stock markets. Trillions of Dollars, Yens, Euros and Yuans have been wiped-out in a relatively a short time. Then many have lost their jobs and many are uncertain about the future job security. All these have had a tremendous impact on the consumers, forcing many to heavily reduce their consumption, which in turn have begun to affect businesses which in-turn are shedding workers to compensate for the loss of sales and revenues. This is a classical deflationary circle that feed on itself.

The governments’ response to this threat has been to stimulate the economy by pumping large sums of money into the economy. A decade ago, a hundred billion dollar was an astronomical sum. Today we don’t even bother to look at it twice. Today we talk of Trillions. A few hundred billions here and a few hundred billions there soon add up to a few nice trillions; especially the trillions that we don’t have.

Now we face a classical problem: the increasing budget deficits. Exactly when the economy is contracting and tax receipts are falling, the government expenditure is rising rapidly. In addition, the governments are buying bad debts and trying to spend more on whatever they can in order to arrest the increasing unemployment and stimulate the economy. These large sums have to come from somewhere. They can be borrowed or money can simply be printed. The problem is that some governments are opting for both.

So how can the US continue its deficit spending? By issuing treasury bonds and other security certificates of course. Both public and foreign governments buy these securities which are guaranteed by the US government. Foreign central banks alone held $1.76 trillion dollars in US treasuries. The combined holdings of Treasuries and agency securities by foreign central banks at the Fed totalled $2.573 trillion, up $11.223 billion”.

The coming inflation

So far the foreign governments and businesses have been willing to buy US debt, but with the current economic downturn things are beginning to change. In the last 5 years China has spent as much as one-seventh of its entire economic output buying mostly American debt. However, with the sharp slowdown in its economy, China is finding it difficult to keep buying. China has also come-up with its own $600 billion stimulus plan. This along with the falling trade surplus and the falling tax receipt will make it exceedingly unlikely that China can keep financing part of the US government’s deficit spending. The same applies to other countries as well.

As the economic downturn continues we can see two things: the interest on US treasuries increase substantially to make it attractive and or printing money. Printing money is not so farfetched as many would like to believe. Already countries that cannot find willing lenders are resorting to this. The Bank of England voted unanimously earlier this month to seek consent from the government to start the process of quantitative easing (means printing money) by buying gilts and other securities. With interest rates at 1%, printing money is likely to increase inflation.

It is especially appealing for the US government to print money since inflation means a real value reduction in debts. With mounting trade and budget deficit and decreasing tax receipts and the shrinking of the number of willing lenders, US government may not have any choice but to print money.

All governments are reducing their interest rates to historic lows and at the same time spending a lot of money that they don’t have. It will take at least two more years for the economy to stabilise (meaning an arrest in decline rather than outright growth). Once that point is reached we will begin to see the effects of the loose monetary policy: a tremendous rise in inflation which can be accompanied by low economic growth or in other words stagflation.

The current economic crises have left many countries’ local banks with foreign currency loans that they find difficult to repay in that currency. This and the possibility of defaults have made these countries a good target for speculators. If such an attack starts, many countries will automatically have to devalue their currencies (even more than they already have) or try to defend their currencies. In either case this may trigger yet another crisis that may actually destroy a good portion of many economies around the world.

Even if we assume that no more nasty surprises will appear in the next two years and the economies stabilise, we are left with the reduced levels of consumption around the world, especially in major economies. So there will be a dearth of market for the goods and services produced by others. In absence of the US, the question will be: which country or countries are able to increase demand to such a degree as to trigger a recovery; that most likely will be accompanied with high inflation?”

Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar (Bakhtiarspace-articles@yahoo.no) is sugesting a second “Bretten Woods” agreement where we can address the existing problems and restructure the world’s economic system, otherwise we will face protectionism, low economic growth, and even trade wars. Dr. Bakhtiar failed to offer a blue print on what to agree on.

I suggest the folowing: 

First, the developed States have to agree on another tangible standard (like gold) for currencies.  Gold would not do because the US has abolished it in 1967 because all the gold in the world could not sustain the huge amount of paper dollars circulating or intended to circulate around the world.  The alternative is a basket of depleting minerals that are essentials for manufacturing and production.  The processed minerals do not have to be rare but very essentials for development.  The US can agree to this idea since it has huge reserves in many important minerals.

Second, all the States that can account for at least 3% of all curency circulation should join an “International Money Printing Council” with tight control and monitoring creteria.  Any combined States with over 40% of cash money shares in the global market should have a veto power.

Failing a convincing and sustainable agreement for monetary stability the Third World War is altready in the planning stage as the easiest and quickest way out of that morass.  Only in major wars do printed money with no tangible backing has mythical values.  No, the next region for the war scene is not Iran: no European or US soldiers want to fight in this “cursed region”.  It won’t be Afghanistan: if Afghanistan was worth it then Bush Junior would not have invaded Iraq before stabilizing Afghanistan.  It won’t be North Korea: it is bordering China.  The batlefield will not be in any area bordering Russia.  It won’t be the Congo River zone: no Western soldiers is about to step in this infested and contagious disease plagued region with AIDS consuming 30% of the population.

The next world war is in Sudan. Sudan is a continent by itself and rich in all kinds of raw materials, oil, and water and land to sustain the world agricultural needs.  No, the superpowers will not directly fight one another. The war will last to the last Sudanese and any lame African soldiers that participate in the war. Egypt might get a tiny share of the spoil of the new colonial powers simply because it was impotent to secure its backyard.  Egypt and the Arab States are feeling the heat and scrambling; it is kind of too late.

Season of Migration to the North, by Tayeb Saleh (August 10, 2006)

Tayyeb Salih is a Sudanese writer and his book was translated into English by Denys Johnson-Davis.

It is a small novel but powerful, intense, and gripping.  The narrator is a fresh graduate from Britain, earned a PhD in English literature, and returned home after 7 years of absence.  I shall refer to him as the educated man.

The author meets the hero of this story Mustafa Said who has settled his village during his leave.  Mustafa is a Sudanese genius whose brain is like a knife for assimilating all kind of topics and sciences, whose memory is like a sponge in retaining whatever he read, but whose emotions and feelings are as cold as ice.  He grew up to be a robust and very handsome man, his face had Arabic features but his hair was African.

Mustafa lost his father, a rich camel merchant, when a toddler and his stern-faced mother left him to live an independent life, barely emotionally caring for him.  When Mustafa left his mother in order to join an English Middle School in Cairo on a grant she did not raise any fuss and simply told him: “Had your father lived he would have liked your decision. This is your life and you are free to do with it as you wish”.

No tears and no kisses accompanied the farewell.  When Mustafa landed in Cairo, he was taken over by the English Robinsons who were childless.  Mrs. Robinson used to tell him: “Mr. Saeed, you’re a person devoid of a sense of fun. Can’t you forget your intellect?

Mustafa’s mother seemed to have on her face like a thick mask, as though her face was the surface of the sea in order to hide her emotions.  Although the novel never mentioned how Mustafa’s father died, I am under the impression from Mustafa’s sexual drives and cold feelings that his mother, a slave by origin, might have killed his father out of jealousy in a neat fashion that removed any suspicions, and then wrapped herself up within a cocoon of cold sensitivities and distanced herself from any social life.

It might be conjectured that she eliminated him because he and his tribe helped free the English Governor Slatin Pasha escape when he was the prisoner of the Khalifa El-Taaishi.

Mustafa left to London around 1910 and turned to be the jock of all trades in accumulating knowledge from economics, to poetry, to engineering, to drawing, and anything that he set his mind into.

He spent his life in London teaching at universities and wooing the English young girls and married women, pursuing them and offering them expensive gifts until they were reduced to slaves, completely in love with his beautiful dark complexion and mesmerized by his innumerable lies about the life in Sudan, Africa and the desert.

Jean Morris set her eyes on him and drove him mad with love and hatred for three years before she asked him to marry her.  When he pursued her she would avoid him and when Mustafa avoided her she would track him down and rekindle his desires.  Jean managed to drive Mustafa’s girlfriends to commit suicide because they believed that they could not compete with Jean for Mustafa’s strong emotions toward her.

One night, during the period when Mustafa avoided her for two weeks, Jean barged into his apartment, heaped filthy curses upon Anna, Mustafa’s girl friend, and drove her out crying.  Jean took off all her clothes and stood naked by the door.  Mustafa approached her and she commanded him saying: “Give me this expensive Wedgwood vase and you can have me“.  She took the priceless vase and smashed it on the ground.  Then, she asked for his rare Arab manuscript and shredded it to pieces.

Jean pointed to his silken Isphahan prayer-rug.  The rug was a gift from his adoptive mother Mrs. Robinson when he was in Cairo and it was the most valuable thing he owned.  And Jean proceeded to throw the rug in the fire-place.  As Mustafa wrapped his arms around her waist Jean jabbed him between his thighs by her knees and left.

After 3 years of chasing each other Jean told him: “I am tired of your pursuing me and of my running before you. Marry me.”  The got married and she would not let him approach her in bed.  She tried hard to raise his suspicions about her extra marital affairs and flirt shamelessly with every Tom in town but I believe that she didn’t care much about sex, at least not with men.  They went through periods of murderous emotional wars for every time he would hit her she would respond by slapping him back and digging her nails into his face.

On a February dark evening, the temperature 10 degrees below zero, when pipes were frozen and the whole city was a field of ice, Mustafa walked from the station to his house carrying his overcoat over his arm, his blood boiling and transpiring profusely.  He found Jean stark naked on the bed, her thighs wide ajar, waiting for him.

His glances over each part of her body overwhelmed her.  Mustafa raised his dagger and she kissed the blade.  He put the blade-edge between her breast and she twined her legs round his back.  He slowly pressed the dagger deeper and deeper in her flesh while she was saying: “Darling, I thought you would never do this.  I almost gave up hope of you.  Come with me. Don’t let me go alone. I love you, my darling.”  He believed her while she was dying.

Mustafa was sentenced to 7 years prison term.  When he was released before the breaking of the Second World War, he wandered about all Europe before returning to Sudan and settling down in remote village by the Nile.  He married Hosna, a local girl, bigot two sons, farmed his land, raised cattle, and shared responsibilities in the communal projects and committees.

One year, the Nile had a strong flood, the like of it happens once every 20 years, and many in the village died.  Mustafa was considered dead too because his body was not found.  Mustafa is a fine swimmer and I believe that the call of the season of migration to the European north was more powerful than settling down.

A couple of weeks before the flood, he left a sealed envelop to his wife to be delivered to an acquaintance of his in the village, a young PhD graduate in English literature from London.  The letter asked the educated man to be the guardian of his family and to care for it.  A rich old man from the village of seventy who was madly in love with her and who was much married and much divorced asked the narrator to convince Hosna to marry him.

Hosna refused to remarry and told the educated man, who was married and from a tribe that don’t take more than one wife, that she would kill her husband and then kill herself if one is forced upon her.

While the educated man was back in Khartoum, as a civil servant in the education ministry, Hosna was forced by her father to marry the old man.  Hosna had asked the father of the educated man to ask his son to marry her, just because she wanted to live as an independent woman and would not be of any trouble as his second wife.

The father of the narrator resented that woman who took the liberty to taking her affairs in her own hands and denied her request.  The educated man received an urgent cable.  When he arrived Hosna had killed her husband and then killed herself after the old man tried to rape her and had bitten off one of her nipples.

Many of Mustafa’s classmates and the younger generation who lived in Britain recollected that he was an outstanding person, who was the first Sudanese to marry an English woman, to get the British citizenship, to teach at English universities and be given the nickname of “The black English”.

A few of them went as far as affirming that he was an English secret agent, the darling of the English left movement during the pre-war period, and that he belonged to the Fabian school of economics which did not rely on statistics and facts but on general principles of justice, equality, and socialism.

The narrator used the key given to him by Mustafa to open the iron door of the special room of Mustafa that nobody entered or could enter.  It was a modern spacious room with a queen size bed, an up-to-date bathroom, paintings and large mirrors over the walls; just a carbon copy of the design of Mustafa’s apartment in London.  Shelves of thousands of English books from all kind of literature and science were filling the room from floor to ceiling.  Mustafa was in the process of writing several books and did draw the figures of many of the village people.

The novel broached on the effects of colonialism on the Sudan. The British opened roads and rivers to ship armies and weapons first, then they enticed some young Sudanese children to learn the English language, basic reading and writing skills and arithmetic in order to fill minor clerical posts in the government.

They in fact showed favor to nonentities to occupy the highest positions in the colonial period.  When Mahmoud Wad Ahmed, a Sudanese patriotic leader was defeated and brought in shackles to the British High Governor of colonial Sudan, the British General Kitchener said to Muhammad: “Why have you come to my country to lay waste and plunder?”

A dialogue between the educated Sudanese Mansour and Richard the English teacher might be a typical example that is related to the colonial effects on the developing countries:

Mansour: “You transmitted to us the disease of your capitalist economy.  What did you give us in exchange but a handful of capitalist companies that drew our blood and still do?

Richard: “All this is to show that you cannot manage to live without us.  You used to complain about colonialism and when we left, you then create the legend of neo-colonialism. It seems that our presence, in an open or undercover form, is as indispensable to you as air and water.


Why the invasion of Iraq? Because of China! (May 3, 2007)

I am sick and tired reading whole books about the two dozens probable causes for the invasion of the US to Iraq.   Most of these causes sound as by-products or side consequences that belittle the over one million dead and as many Iraqis injured.  It is hubris to maintain that the whole US administration is a bunch of Christian Conservatives with religious agenda and that every one in the administration and policy makers was fouled about the real objective of this invasion. It hubris to believing that the intelligence of the CIA and other European and Russian sources of surveillance of the non availability of arms of mass destruction to Saddam Hussein were not confirmed. 

Some Arab leaders went as far as claiming that George W. Bush was forced to divulge the real aim as drawing the Al Qaeda terrorists into Iraq instead of the USA soil, as if Afghanistan was not the ideal place to draw, encircle and fight Al Qaeda.  The invasion of Iraq was in fact the center policy, though non public, of the Bush team for the Republican candidates’ selection campaign: this invasion was planned and executed because of the economical expansion of China, period. 

China was the only giant capable to effectively check the world hegemony of the USA even before the fall of the Berlin Wall.  China is becoming fast the biggest importer of oil and has been investing heavily in Africa, in oil fields of Sudan, Nigeria and the Congo.  China’s balance of payment with the US is positive in the hundred of billions of dollars and the biggest importer of technologies and the largest exporter of the affordable items of every kind.  

The US wanted to physically control the largest oil reserve in the world so that it could pressure China to continue buying the US bonds and infuse the US treasury with unlimited amount of liquidity, in an economy suffering from chronic deficit by the trillions of dollars.  The US wanted to continue the control of the oil market price, raising it when China export more to the US and lowering it when China encourages importation of US goods and services.

It is the same old control of market prices that the colonizing powers exercised for centuries.  In 1923, the USA forced Great Britain to repay the guaranteed loaned to the Balkan countries during WWI; Great Britain obliged and the USA realized that this Empire was actually repaying money generated from the private US citizens.  How?  It turned out that Great Britain was the sole exporter of rubber from its colonies in India and Malawi and it kept increasing the prices of caoutchouk (rubber) and the Ford Motor company had to pay the price and the US citizens had to buy cars at a higher price for the increased cost of tire production .  This was the primary cause that the US multinationals forced Congress to change the laws of land ownership in the US colony of the Philippines so that these multinationals might grow caoutchouk trees on vast areas.

The invasion of Iraq was bipartisan with the tacit agreement of the Democratic Party and the major US news media.  The main G8 economical powers knew exactly the main purpose of that invasion but it is taboo to hang the dirty clothes in front of the third world to see, even for their own citizens: France, Germany and Russia had heavy commercial interests with China and made sure that the UN would not give a green light for that enterprise.  The US and Britain undertook it on their own; Blair had to lie to his citizens through his teeth because he could not let the US down at the expense of irking China.

What was to be a slam dunk affair turned sour after three years in the Iraqi morass; the US people coughed up already a trillion dollars with no tangible returns except a few billions dollars contracts for rebuilding Iraqi infrastructure by a few US and British companies such as Halliburton.  The Iraqi oil fields were to increase its production to over 3 million barrels a day but it is barely exporting half a million as of 2006; the US was to keep troops in Iraq but this is becoming very doubtful. It appears that the US has to settle for a Federated Iraq instead of a central government at its direct order and, at least, the US might enjoy total control of the oil production in the Kurdish enclave of Mossoul and Kirkuk.  The southern Shiaas who were becoming Iraqi nationalists are reverting to an Iranian control of influence as it has been historically. 

Israel was the only winner so far in that masquerade of weakening a central Iraqi government but could not achieve total victory because the 2006 July War against Hezbollah and Lebanon resulted in a debacle and a resurgence of the resistance spirit among the Islamic and Arab peoples.  The Olmert PM government is teetering and Israel political structure based on militarism is undergoing a serious revision.  The USA has realized that Israel is no longer a viable heavy stick it can rely on to scare off the resistance to further expansion, oppression, and apartheid policies.

The strategy of the US to have physical control of the oil fields in Iraq could be understood in a global world hegemony policy but the tactics were flawed, ill conceived and immature. How could you expect 140,000 invading soldiers, totally ignorant of the language and the culture of the Arabs and Moslems and who have been bombarded for four decades of heavily skewed propaganda describing Arabs as illiterate, pre-historic and terrorists, to behave as a civilized army?  This invading army entered Iraq as if coming to an exotic territory, already terrified and terrifying a whole population by brute and nervous heavy handedness, shooting at civilians, torturing randomly, flaunting the Geneva Convention code of conducts in occupied territories; behaviors that were frequently described as psychotic reactions to an unwelcome land. 

What was to be a slam dunk US invasion turned out a slam dunk opportunity to the Chinese government because China signed lately an important energy agreement with Russia; a 3,000 kilometer oil pipeline is underway and 500 kilometers are already achieved.  China has also infiltrated Africa with heavy investment in energy and rare minerals fields and the US is now highly eager to replace the European Union for high tech export items to China in order to lure increased bond liquidity in its coffer and reduce its commercial balance of payment with the vast country experiencing the strongest rate of development in this decade.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

July 2021
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