Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Syrian insurgents

News from Lebanon this week:

No different from boring California weather.

Actually, Lebanon “enjoys” 7 months of completely dry weather from May to October.

Politically,this week was pretty awful

This week in Lebanon:

1. We engaged in a small war on terrorism in the town of Ersal, which was occupied by ISIS advancing from the Syrian mountains (and the Lebanese army won),

Actually, the “Syrian insurgents” were allowed to vacate the town after killing dozens of citizens and soldiers and taking hostage over 40 soldiers with them.

What kind of negotiations are being undertaken and by whom to release the soldiers is a taboo story and we are in total darkness for how long the kidnapped soldiers will be held.

2. Still “No selection by Parliament for a President to the republic” and this immature and futile process has been dragging on for 2 months

3. No new election law that this Parliament promised in exchange for extending its tenure 2 more years against citizens refusal.

4. No resolution for the Syrian refugee crisis increasing steadily and representing 40% of Lebanon “approximate” population


Continue reading the remaing most boring though important stuff

1. Armed “Vigilantes” Break into Syrian Homes

(Image via Lebanese Forces)

Gunmen belonging to the Amal party were spotted breaking into Syrian homes in Msaytbeh and Mar Elias in broad daylight this week.

The gunmen, acting as self-dubbed vigilantes, are allegedly aiming to “help” the Lebanese Armed Forces by seeking out “terrorists”… their own way.

2. Saad Hariri Returns to Lebanon in Surprise Visit

After being in self-imposed exile for 3 years, Saad Hariri returned to Lebanon on Friday. The former prime minister told the press that he’ll be looking over the $1 billion in Saudi aid to the Lebanese army, and as for his personal safety, Hariri said: “May Allah protect everyone”.

Actually, Saad came to make sure if any Parliamentary election will be due this November, and if the answer was positive to spend the billion on his election campaign.

(Saad stayed less than 3 days in Beirut and returned to Jedda, and we never heard of him again, or his new location).

Apparently, the deputies have decided to extend their tenure another 2 more years, doubling the constitutional 4-year term.

As for the other $3 billion Saudi aid that the French were supposed to arm the army with, it totally evaporated into thin air and in many deep pockets: The army was horribly short on basic ammunition during the siege of Ersal.

3. Education Minister: Everyone To Pass Final Exams

(Image via Annahar)

The Lebanese education system has finally hit rock bottom. The last time the government let everyone pass their final exams was during the civil war that started in April 1975 and ravaged Lebanon till 1991.

But Education Minister Elias Bou Saab says he will let all students who took the exam receive a certificate.

The minister said his decision came after the UCC’s continued boycott to grade the exams until Parliament passes a new salary scale for teachers.

Bou Saab said he would suspend his decision for 48 hours upon the request of UCC representatives.

This massive 100% success rate of “Graduating” students from high schools will still sit for entrance exams in most public and private universities.

Note that the minister is one of the promotions who “passed” without exam correction in 1985?

4. ISIS Expelled From Arsal

(Image via Annahar)

After five worrisome days of joint military actions that involved the LAF and Hezbollah, Arsal is free of ISIS terror.

The damages left however are remarkable, and need immediate attention by the government.

Many Syrian refugees have been ordered to leave Lebanon putting in question what actually happened in Arsal, and why.

5. Syria Rejects Return of 1,700 Refugees from Lebanon

(Image via Annahar)

In a somewhat ironic development, after the Lebanese government decided to ship back 1,700 refugees to Syria, Syria rejected their passage through the border due to suspected ties between the refugees and the Resistance.

Insipid President (The Void) vacated Palace: Filled the vacant chair and left it vacant. Account in banks by the millions

Lebanon ridiculous shadow State.

This ex-president is Michel Suleiman, the President of the Void per excellence: no one cried when he vacated the Palace, accompanied by 10 new luxury cars of his own, free from taxes.

Suleiman dreamt of extending his tenure 2 more years, as the Parliament did last year and robbed the citizens from their democratic rights, as did the ex-president Lahoud, as did the late ex- president Hrawi…

The hopes of Suleiman were dashed since his passive practices and antagonistic positions on Hezbollah alienated the Shiaa and most of  Lebanese patriots. Three months ago, in desperation, Suleiman referred to Hezbollah as talking with a “wooden mouth” since the resistance insisted on the strategic line of “People, Army and Resistance

In order to demonstrate that he can still deliver on his promises (6 years overdue) if given two more years, Saudi Arabia and the US gave the green light to the Mustakbal (Future) movement of Saad Hariri to help constitute a government that was 395 days in waiting.

The government started with a flurry of decisions, like imposing a climate of security in the city of Tripoli and the regions bordering Syria in the Bekaa Valley and appointed a dozen high-level public servants.

The public service was denied the  appointment of key personnel for a decade and the services in Lebanon were almost non-existent.

The professors and teachers in the public universities were left in the void and the government replaced the University Council in appointing and controlling every decision concerning the universities.

During Suleiman warming of the Chair, no government was formed in less than 200 days, the recent government needed 395 days of gestation.

Suleiman delivered a farewell speech suggesting dozens of constitutional reforms and failed to deliver on his promises for decentralized administration, a project that was finished when he took office, and alienated many parties and organization to boost the economy that has been experiencing a drastic slump for the last 3 years.

He also promised a fair election law, something related to proportional representation, but never acted on it.

He failed in extending rights to women or appointing more women in top posts.

Suleiman failed to efficiently control the flood of Syrian refugees, more than 1.25 million and constituting a third of the population, and allowed the Syrian insurgents free flowing and crossing of the Lebanese borders.

In essence, in 6 years, Suleiman cannot be remembered of creating any institution or bolstering any existing institution.

Suleiman was army chief when the Lebanese political leaders met in Do7a (Qatar) to decide on a replacement “neutral” Maronite  president to “lead” the country for 6 years.

On May 7, Hezbollah counter-attacked the decisions of the government to clip its control on the airport security and land communication lines. The government retracted and Hezbollah succeeded in closing down a dozen of Israeli safe havens for their agents and security offices disguised as providing civil guards to businesses and personalities.

Consequently, with ex-President Lahoud, already out with a vacant Presidential chair, and a government out of function, Qatar angered Saudi Arabia by inviting the Lebanese leaders to meet in Doha and arranged for a compromise President. And Suleiman sat on the chair of the presidency.

In democratic countries, the leader of the largest parliamentary deputies is the one selected to lead. Not in Lebanon with 19 officially recognized religious castes.

Lebanon is a parliamentary system: Nothing is run without the parliament approval, even in the executive or judiciary. But the leader of the largest group is not necessarily the de facto leader: The consensus of the two third of the deputies is required.

As the uprising started in Syria, the propaganda claimed that the regime of Bashar Assad will not last two months. And Suleiman put all his eggs in tha basket of “after Bashar” and refrained from securing Lebanon’s borders from the infiltrations of the Syrian insurgents and refugees.

For two years, Lebanon was the main source for supplying the insurgents in Homs with weapons and medical supplies, and the Syrian insurgents established bases in Lebanon in the north and in the city of Tripoli.

The Lebanese army was not covered politically to established security in Tripoli, and Tripoli was plagued with 20 rounds of civil wars within a year.

And Lebanon experienced waves of suicide car explosion attacks for 4 months due to the open borders that the army was denied the responsibility to close and control

He filled a vacant chair and left the chair vacant: The Parliament failed to elect a new President to Lebanon.

And Lebanon has no President. And this event will keep recurring. As the frequency of Lebanon having no governments.

And no decision can be legitimate without the President review and signature.

Suleiman vacated the Palace with dozens of villas newly built for him and his family members, and $1.6 million in an account in Amsterdam Bank. All the expensive watches that he received in gifts were sold, many of are in the black market. All these financial information were exposed in the Lebanese daily Al Akhbar.

And Suleiman satisfied the policies of US in the Near East, and consequently he can rest assured that he will not be prosecuted for any kinds of embezzlement or any kinds of political harassment or denied visas or any headaches

In this total void, and the illegitimacy of the highest institutions to properly function, Israel is increasing its violations on the southern borders. Pretty soon, Hezbollah would set up a trap to the incursions of Israeli troops. And Israel will be faced with a hard decision on how to respond. And the Lebanese will be convinced that all the shouting of relying on the State is totally unfounded and premature.

Syria: Pragmatic discussions during and after the Assad regime (Part 2)

If interested in reading the first part

The Syrian insurgents and the regime are happily destroying Syria infrastructure and the institutions and isolating the major cities that constituted the backbone of Syrian urban development. Old historic souks and famous tourist attractions are going in flame.

Insurgents and regime should not invest much hope on the illusion that reconstruction funding (already estimated to $60 bn in less than two years of infighting) will be forthcoming. It will trickle for decades, and the people will experience the miseries of old-time, worse than the periods of locust and cholera…

1. The US is disengaging from the Middle-East region: no return on investment of money, energy and time…Already a drastic negative return and no serious potentials for improvement.

I am convinced that all the Israeli aggressive fuss about Iran nuclear program is the realization that the US no longer envision a return on the cost for getting heavily involved in the Middle-East: This troubled and uncontrollable Middle-East region is but headaches and the sinking of too much energy and financial expenses, for just negative return.

Mind you that oil and gas are commodities in the hands of underdeveloped States to be sold in the global market, and military occupation of oil fields in Iraq turned out to be a total fiasco…and not worth contemplating in the near future…

The Far-East Asian region is the strategic new “containment” policies for the US administrations. And the US decided to focus its energy and resources on the Far-East Asian markets, where the future of economic growth and development is being taking place…

And the US is very interested in the future oil and gas resources in the 6 Central Asia States. For example the 6+2 (Russia and the US) new economic group for investing in pipelines…

2. Saudi money is practically saved for the US usage. And this absolute monarchy requires the US agreement for any lavish financial aid that Saudi Arabia proposes.  Actually, Saudi Arabia sovereign fund (if it exist) is considered an US fund, to dip in whenever the US has urgent need for liquidity…Particularly for policies that Congress denies any funding, sort of circumventing the Constitutional restrictions for the sources of income.

It is forecasted that Saudi oil reserves will not be economical to exploit within two decades, and the US will drop this monarchy as a ripe fruit, totally useless for any to take over the government.

3. The European Union is going through a harsh period of financial restructuring, and whatever grant coming from this generous union will be minimal at best. France and England have long been minimal players in the Middle East since 1968 and their services are in demands for ripe issues that require fine-tuning due to their detailed understanding of this region.

4. Any Chinese investment will be agreed upon by the US (containment policy on China economic expansion in the Middle-East), and whatever investment coming from the Chinese will be mortgaging the Syrian public sectors… In any case, China looks for vast markets, and Syria is not a viable market, and its interest is for its proximity to Europe where China is exporting heavily…

The US is trying to secure a minimum containment of Russia incursion in the warmer seas in the Mediterranean basin, kind of “don’t go beyond Syria seas shores”. That is not a big problem to the US, since its interest with Russia are far greater for its cooperation in exploiting the oil and gas reserves in the Central Asia new States…and the investment in pipelines…

The insurgents and the regime in Syria have to come to term that any resolution will be the results of internal dialogue: The US will keep a safe distance from any direct engagement in this out-of-control region.

The insurgents and the regime have to begin serious discussions on how to contain the rabid apartheid State of Israel on the border and the occupied Golan Heights. And Israel is planning to vent its anger on the US tergiversing policies in the ME by bombing Syria chemical installations and chemical weapons, another side pressure to ease the US again in the ME games.

Israel is cornered and resuming foolish total apartheid policies that are meant to “transfer all the Palestinians” from Israel. To go Where? Jordan, the weak Syria, the unstable Lebanon, the ever famished Gaza…?

For decades, Israel has been biting on large chunks not commensurate to its status as a little State with minor resources to chew on, thanks to the unconditional backing of the US and western European States…

Israel has realized that the sword is no longer a viable mean to maintain any reasonable acceptance in the region, and Hezbollah has demonstrated this concept in the preemptive war of 2006.

And how Syria after the Assad reign is going to deal with Israel? What are the pragmatic plans and programs to discuss on the negotiation table? Egypt is already opposing Israel restrictions in the Sinai and adopting this “soft containment” strategy to resist Israel’s older expansionist policies…

The Syrian army has to remain intact and be reorganized to be trusted as guarantor of civilian constitutional rules.

Turkey is aligning tanks on the border with Syria in order to create a smokescreen for its growing internal problems and the decrease in the popularity of de facto dictator Erdogan PM. Ultimately, Turkey plan is to secure a mandated power over Syria, similar to the previous mandated power of Syria over Lebanon (1990-2005).  Turkey is relying of softening the opposition of Russia by relaxing pipeline deals crossing Syria and maintaining Russia naval post in Tarsus…

The secret service should not be curtailed or punished for 40 years of running the show: Syria is going to need every skilled and trained security personnel to ward off any resurgence of foreign meddling in Syria internal affairs…

Every Syrian citizen with mass murder on his hands, and especially the commanders and decision makers must confess or face trial.  Punishment for those who confessed must be to home town arrest conditions, never to cross the town limits: The inhabitants will keep a close lookout on movement. Any further serious unlawful behavior will bring back the entire file for trial.

Starting the execution spiral has no end and will acquire a life of its own.

All these “insurgents” who took advantage of troubled periods by kidnapping and blackmailing citizens must stand trials like common criminals, and no amnesty should cover their ill behaviors…

If the insurgents wish to gain any shred of credibility as national Syrians, they have to demonstrate it by deleting all the foreign mercenaries and jihadists from their ranks and files.  The national insurgents have got to take responsibility for violence against humanity and answer to the murder of prisoners…

Foreign mercenaries and foreign jihadists must be put on trial in Syria, with no exception as to the States they are originally from…

Bashar intend of finishing his term, ending in 2013, and he has plenty of leverage left to ease in a functioning transitional government.

The current voted “reformed” Constitution is not an improvement to the previous one that was shelved for 4 decades. There should be defining fair separation among the three powers, and the President power should be curtailed.

Note: Israel thinks that only the US deep involvement in this region will keep US yearly financial and economic support, updated weapons, subsidies, free grants, lavish donations…flowing into Israel to sustain the apartheid system. Otherwise, Israel will have no choice but to consider policies as part of this region, within its means, and deal with its goyim people…

The current problem in Israel and with its lobby in the US is that this time around the stake is huge: The strategy of the US in the ME has shifted to oppose Israel wishes for continued US active involvement. The only involvement the US envision is just to secure Israel “military safety”…

Consequently, Israel and its lobby in the US have been showing signs of disarray and confusion, due to the quick pace of events that are unfolding, and behaving too impatiently, and alienating the US administration with undiplomatic terms and extreme and radical positions that are no longer tenable in the world community.

Things are changing, and Israel has to start dealing seriously with the surrounding realities, a region the US has decided to get out and let the people remove the thorns on their own… Is it why Israel is glad that Syria is being totally destabilized?  So that any negotiations with Syria will be extremely biased to the more powerful on the field?




November 2022

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