Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Tohme Y Adib

This pseudo Lebanese citizens are the plight of how the State was transformed into a pseudo-State

I should have said that… But I did said it in the last 30 years.

When the (militia/mafia leaders) got their hands on public resources and bribes for decades
I didn’t say anything
I was counting my bank interests (And this is true for 18 officially religious sects)

When they looted the electricity and cut the power
I didn’t say anything
I was plugging into a private generator (Parliament chief Berri is the lead Capone)

When they made their useless wars and destroyed the country
I didn’t say anything
I always found refuge abroad

When they drowned the streets of trash to share commissions
I didn’t say anything
Garbage was always those of other denominations (Problem Not yet resolved in the last decade)

When they confiscated my bank deposits to keep their money safe
I didn’t say anything
I was scared to destroy the banking sector (A ponzi scheme that lasted 30 years, no production and sustained deficit)

When my dollars turned out to be lollars (Lebanese based on $. Though No correlation whatsoever: the US $ can devalue to nothing, and the Lira will continue to devalue)
I didn’t say anything
I was being humiliated in front of the banks to beg for what was left of my savings

When they stocked ammonium nitrates next to my house (in the port of Beirut) ravaged what was left of my life
I didn’t say anything
I had nothing left to say

One moment my world was there; the next moment it disappeared forever
I didn’t know what to say, what to talk about
Death or hope? Or it’s equal…

What? Hope? There is no hope for us while they are here…

(This Silent Majority was the staunchest most vocal Silence ever.

The least any citizens to earn his citizenship is to voice his opinion loudly and with determination)

First out (transferred hard currencies), first in (with privileges): Lebanon

First out first in

Inducing Lebanese expats and wealthy “Arabs” to transfer real money to the Lebanese banks

Out of the real money, they multiplied virtual money and created the illusion of a model that can generate wealth out of scratch

When real money inflows started to slow down they started to transfer real money out of the system and to replace it by virtual money (mass printing of Lebanese currency)

In 2019, $18 billion were transferred abroad, and $6 billion in 2020 even after the mass protests

Virtual money will in turn evaporate because it has never existed, except out of a scam they called “lollard” (lol-dollars?)

With the disappearance of virtual money and the widespread of inequality, poverty and destitution, real money transferred abroad can buy everything

It will buy private property as well as public assets which will be lodged in a fund (Sort of a wish Sovereign Fund)

Plans are being debated:

Haircut, capital control, lollards for the people, free capital, real dollars, public resources for the privileged few

Foreign aid won’t be granted without reforms, impoverished population will be taken Eastward

No plan, no fund, no aid without equality and solidarity

Inequality is not only about arms, it is also about money

Those who exploited the system must pay first

Those who corrupted the system and made-up the $80 billion loss must pay first

Because the $80 billion loss is only a portion of their profits

Confiscation of accounts and haircut for all,

Contribution by the corrupted politicians and their cronies is the condition precedent for any plan, any recovery

No neutrality of the state on this issue, the US sanctions and settlement way can serve as a soft model, the MBS way as a hard one

People are now paying 70% penalty to free-up their wealth,.

It is only fair that those who stole public assets and private deposits contribute 30% of theirs as solidarity with their fellow citizens

Contributions by all who made up this mess should be a condition precedent to any plan for sustained pain and famine.

This is the only pragmatic solution to move forward

Note 1: Private Lebanese banks (there are No publicly owned banks), are the hunting dogs for our militia/mafia “leaders” Club. The banks “shareholders” have figured out that it cannot lose by lending the government at 18% interest rate (knowing well it is a Ponzi scheme), on the assumption that a State cannot go bankrupt.

The concept was that No government can go bankrupt: the State has always enough assets and “properties” to redeem its debt to the banks.

The banks are working also on the assumption that it is their “shareholders” (mostly the successive deputies) who want their money back, and Not the 80% of the small depositors who lost everything and are hungry and in despair.

Note 2: The Central Bank (Riad salami) and the successive ministers of Finance (Nabih Berry) main function was to “financially engineer” the State budget for the benefits of the Club of militia leaders. and the 18 officially recognized religious clergies

Again, what this militia/mafia clan want from Lebanon?

-What did they do with our saving? (the militia/mafia leaders, the Central Bank, the private banks, the religious sects clergies…)
– They spent it in the name of preserving the civil peace and fighting corruption.

– And now?
– Erasing its traces in silence, while we are watching their shows on TV, tweeting and posting on FB and WhatsApp.
$115 billions of total deposits in banks…

– That are worth no more than 30% of their value in real dollars, about $34 billions…
– And the plans, the IMF…

No need. They were only used to divert the attention. The only real plan was the ongoing erosion of deposits that have been trapped in the banking system. And it is pretty successful…
– What next?

– Moving to the next phase: expropriating and sharing the resources of a rogue state among bands of thugs…

– What is depressing is the return to normality for the victims of such a scam…It’s a weird feeling by an entire people of having been raped…
– And to remain obedient to its serial rapists for the rest of its life, the feeling is that bad…

– What to do?
– Exactly the opposite of what you are doing (or not doing) now…

Note 1: Greek former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said:  Lebanese must have the courage to nationalize the banks and restructure the Central Bank, issue a new currency and desist from seeking IMF money…”

Note 2: Finance Minister, Ghazi Wazni, the stooge to Nabih Berry (Head of Parliament in the last 25 years) opposed the Kroll Forensic financial company to do its job. The militia/mafia leaders, headed by Berry want just accounting firms so that no names are brought to justice.

Actually, the only people brought to justice are low level criminals at the sold of the militia leaders. These “criminals” are interrogated and released.

“Trust me. Tomorrow will be much better”: the motto of every government in Lebanon

Trust me

The government: “I know I cheated on you on all the line, I know you know that I cheated on you, but I won’t do it, after everything that’s happened. You can really trust me.

Yes, I know I wasted the money (loans) I got in Paris 1, Paris 2 and Paris 3 and distributed to the militia/mafia leaders coffers to maintain our civil war cease fire… (where we had no victors, but wasted 100,000 killed and twice that number in injured citizens and a million of displaced to other sectarian contons)

I know that it is you, the poorer taxpayers, who maintained this expensive, archaic and sectarian system, but today it’s so different.

Trust me.

Starting tomorrow morning everything will change.

I’m going to cut spending to limit state needs and eliminate the deficit in a period of not more than five years, really, I know I shouldn’t have adopted the wage grid without reforming the administration, but all this is from the past, a folded page.

This wage grid was adopted before the elections, and I didn’t know that the officials recruited employees without jobs in the public institutions without my knowledge, an increase that doesn’t match with our economic/financial capabilities

And we rigged the elections and manipulated the system, just like the budget numbers, but that won’t happen again.

I’m sorry for this little mistake, but starting tomorrow it won’t happen again.

I’ve changed, honestly, I’ve really changed, at least I want to, I really want to…

I promise to…

Can you give me the money promised at the Cedars Conference so that I can act on changing my behavior and deliver on my promises?

All I need is a miser $4 billion dollars, out of the $230 bn we have already totally wasted and vanished…

Banks will finance the balance.

This will allow them to convert state debt recognition into real rights over its skinned heritage.

As a loan guarantee, I would guarantee the actions of companies specially designed to work in the strategic areas. You will be able to sell the shares received as guarantee, in loan refund.

Honestly I changed, I behaved wrong and I’m so sorry.

I’m going to get slim on state resources, such as electricity, waste treatment, telecom, port, airport, cannabis and gas and oil production, but it’s in the name of equality in despoliation and the sharing of public resources.

But after that, I will, as I promised, before Thursday afternoon, in three weeks, I will become a completely new person and everything will be different and I will attract and retain the best candidates in the institutions of the State.

True, the last nominations were not a model of transparency and meritocracy, but it was in the name of brotherhood among the mafia Capones

I’m sorry, but this won’t happen again trust me. In a blink of the eye, I’m going to be a new person and I’m going to fight nepotism, law passes, and conflicts of interest in the state,

It’s very important to Trust me: there is No stable currency without trust.

We can’t keep living without trust, you agree, right?

I would, I really want to… I promise to… can you advance me the $11 billion promised to CEDAR, that would, I think, be enough to cover the balance of payment deficit and rebuild foreign reserves

This misery amount would prevent the State to sink into chaos.

You understand, chaos is not pleasant, it’s not only the escape of capital, but also that of men, and it would be a shame to add new migrants to the older years migrants.

This time I’m not going to turn away or waste money, it won’t happen again, you can trust me, I’m going to change and everything is going to be totally different next year.

I’m going to start the structural reforms that relate to the structure of the state, a most important move to change our highway robber behavior

And don’t tell me you’re going to ask to control how this money is going to be used, I can’t accept that in the name of national sovereignty…

What, weapons out of state ? Is this also a violation of sovereignty?

I would like… Next term… I promise… Trust me…

And what is this virtual wealth that Lebanese enjoyed? Didn’t think Lebanon has any of these multinational financial “Moral Entity”

And what are the hundreds of civil society groups doing?

Since 1993, and during late Rafic Hariri PM, Lebanon virtual wealth was built on selling debts that nourish real estate and government bonds bubbles, in the name of maintaining the peg in a failed state, and end up in the pockets of the political and financial elite under a veil of bank secrecy.

Lebanon was promoted as a Prime Real Estates to be looted, seashore and entire mountain tops sold for cheap.

Open air, open investment on public facilities and infrastructures. What happened in Russia during this infamous Yeltsin.

Lebanon was to emulate the economy in Dubai and investment was to pour in from Saudi Kingdom and the Gulf States.

Downtown Beirut were structured under a company called Solidere for 30 years, and renewed unlawfully for the Hariri clan.

And the government and Parliament received loans to be distributed to the militia/mafia leaders. Everyone of these leaders were reserved a war treasure coffer. A small part was for the leaders to “invest” in their electoral communities and assign their members in the government institutions.

Suddenly we woke up and realized that this was an illusion….

They are trying to unite?

After dozens of years of virtual wealth, the Lebanese people are rocking irreversibly into real poverty.
And what are the hundreds of civil society groups doing? They are trying to unite.

After dreaming of leaving our children a better life, we can only promise them an existential regression, like that of thousands of young Iranian (initiatives), gifted, over-educated, broken dreams, whose only horizon is a career Taxi driver or home help.

And what are the hundreds of civil society groups doing? They are trying to unite.
In the face of the insecurity of the times we live, people’s savings have been eliminated in return for the cancellation of public debt, with impunity, irresponsibility of those responsible for disaster and increasing inequality.

And what are the hundreds of civil society groups doing? They are trying to unite.
In the face of the delegation of the International Monetary Fund, a divided, inconsistent team with divergent ideas, and conflicting diaries, which promises the failure of negotiations even before they begin.

And what are the hundreds of civil society groups doing? They are trying to unite.
After years of collusion between double violence of money and that of weapons, we are fighting in the context of double violence, the lack of money and the omnipresence of weapons, which strengthens our failed state status to hold a monopoly on legal violence or to define and protect its borders.

And what are the hundreds of civil society groups doing? They are trying to unite.
And then what? Without external financing, self-financing. Money flawed, stolen, corrupt, transfer abroad in an immoral way, will buy everything, public goods and private goods, and the return to normal will raise the wall between those who rule and the ruled, whose existence is likely to settle properly in misery.

And what are the hundreds of civil society groups doing? They are trying to unite.
If the lack of sovereignty, lack of future, promised poverty, existential regression, impunity, inequality, the despoliation of private saving and public resources have so far failed to unite the groups of civil society, it’s that there’s a problem somewhere.

In what sense my bank deposit is Affected? Bankrupt Lebanon at all levels

Vos dépôts (bank accounts) ne seront pas touchés

Covid-19 :

Les uns affirment que « plus rien ne sera comme avant », les autres rétorquent que « rien ne va changer ».

On peut toujours débattre, mais pour eux rien ne change, ou si peu, et le Coronavirus est un cadeau du ciel. « Eux », ce sont certains banquiers et politiciens que le confinement a offert une occasion inespérée pour se refaire une santé.

Ces “Eux” vous promettent que « vos dépôts ne seront pas touchés ». Mais détrompez-vous, les promesses n’ engagent que ceux qui y croient.

En réalité, les dépôts qui existent « comptablement » encore ont déjà perdu officiellement la moitié de leur valeur (différence de change entre le taux officiel de 1515 livres pour un dollar et le taux officieux qui côtoie aujourd’hui les 3000 livres pour un dollar).

Et ne vous fiez pas aux apparences, ce qui se joue entre les banques commerciales, le pouvoir politique et la banque du Liban n’est qu’une scène de ménage arrangée, une pièce de théâtre, un « déjà-vu » pour détourner votre attention.

En réalité, les trois sont de connivence, avec un objectif commun, celui de vous détrousser pour se gaver encore plus quand les choses retrouvent leur cours normal.

Et jusqu’à aujourd’hui, tout marche pour eux comme sur des roulettes.

Avant la pandémie, la crise de liquidité bancaire, dont près des deux tiers des actifs sont consommés par un État boulimique et gaspilleur, s’est mue en crise de solvabilité quand il est devenu évident que cet Etat, tel qu’il est gouverné, est irréformable.

Irréformable veut dire pour eux que le miracle qui consiste à attirer de nouveaux flux d’argent (fresh money) pour payer les anciens ne fonctionne plus.

Alors ils ont mis main basse sur votre argent, liquidé leur portefeuille de prêts au secteur privé en donnant le coup de grâce à l’économie, et instauré un simulacre de contrôle de capitaux qui n’a servi en réalité qu’à arranger la fuite des capitaux de quelques privilégiés.

La pandémie du COVID-19 n’a fait que révéler l’extrême injustice du système : Alors que les déposants voient leur épargne et leur retraite s’évaporer au moment où ils ont en le plus besoin, les banques font ce que toute entreprise rêverait de faire pendant ce désastre : collecter le montant de ses prêts sans avoir à payer le montant de ses emprunts qui sont entrain de fondre à cause de l’hyperinflation.

En même temps, tirer des profits exceptionnels par la variation du taux des changes tout en coupant dans ses dépenses.

Et puis refiler aux déposants qui restent la patate chaude et se partager avec leurs potes politiques les ressources futures de l’État dans la perspective d’un redémarrage de l’économie mondiale post-Coronavirus.

Détrompez-moi et montrez-moi des signes de mesures sérieuses qui se préparent : un audit sur les dettes, les dépôts et les réserves, une levée du secret bancaire, un rapatriement de l’argent des banquiers et des initiés politiques transféré juste avant ou après octobre 2019, une identification des responsables plutôt qu’une recherche vaine de coupables, un soupçon d’indépendance…

Un plan pour l’édification d’un Etat, n’importe quel plan, un plan d’ensemble qui ne se réduit pas à un ensemble de mesures éparses qu’on tire et qu’on retire, et surtout des signes que l’on se soucie des gens, qu’on les voit, qu’on sent leur détresse et leur besoin de justice.

Le besoin de justice, (and fairness) qui est à la base de la confiance, est le sentiment qui structure une société.

Quand il est bafoué, ce n’est pas seulement le système financier qui s’effondre, mais la totalité de l’édifice.

Don’t cry for us Argentina: Financial Situation in Lebanon

I’m trying to understand the mess we’re currently in and I have a rough sketch of a story.

As I understand it, when the WhatsApp revolt sparked, Lebanon was already entangled in a twin-deficit problem: budget and foreign, with significant current account imbalance and dwindling foreign reserves.

Before the 17th of October, banks were already pushing for the conversion of loans in local currencies into US denominated loans:  they were restricting capital outflows and enticing new deposits in US dollars at abnormally high interest rates

At the same time, bank insiders were transferring their funds abroad and removing their cash in dollars from the banks.

When the protests erupted on October 17, banks suddenly closed for two weeks without good reason, triggering when they reopened a generalized bank run.

As a result, banks froze all accounts, suspended the convertibility of bank deposits and imposed an extensive and arbitrary capital control.

These measures led to the creation of two types of dollars: one, inside the banking system, being tied to the Lebanese Lira at a rate of one dollar equal to 1515 Lebanese Lira while the other, outside the banking system, floating and averaging today 2500 Lebanese Lira.

The discount value of inconvertible deposits is the cost depositors are willing to incur to get their money out of the banking system, in light of the impeding risks and the political ineptness and ranges now from 25% to 50%.

In his latest rigged TV interview, the governor of the BDL (Riad Salami) opened the door for the “Lirafication” of bank deposits, measure that will be plausibly followed by the devaluation of the lira.

The post-devaluation exchange rate will depend on the ability of the BDL to defend the local currency at a new level of exchange, i.e., the assessment of the amount of net foreign reserve it holds.

Such an exercise is close to an Enron-style audit with fake holdings, hidden losses and off-the-book accounting.

As the country descends irrevocably into anarchy, Lebanon seems to be abandoned by the international community and the economy is grounded to a virtual halt, a shut down, which led to the breakdown of the system.

This breakdown has been a slow-motion collapse that marched for exactly 29 years, inexorably towards its current catastrophic demise.

The date of its symbolic death goes back to October 13, 2019, when wildfire broke out across Lebanon.

At the cornerstone of the Lebanese economy, was its currency system, known as the “convertibility” policy, which kept the value of one dollar fixed equal to about 1507 lira and allowed Lebanese to use both currencies interchangeably.

It was the basis of a system of legalized corruption for so long and is partly responsible of the impressive meltdown.

In 2001, Argentina defaulted on its public debt while Lebanon was saved by the international community during the Conference of Paris I.

We should have learned at that time lessons from the Argentina experience, but unfortunately, we didn’t.

Multiple crisis in Lebanon: Afterward of the mass upheaval

A country in such a multiple crisis is no longer a country at all: It’s a collection of futile individuals, considering themselves bigger than institutions, acting like cynical clowns on TV shows, each of whom is looking for personal cover and passing the buck from one to the other.

Few saw the warning signs and now we are in the middle of the tragedy.

The few coming months will be very complicated but what about the afterward of the few coming months, what about the post-disaster era?

If we don’t reimagine another future, if we don’t rethink the meaning of economic, political, ecological, financial and social practices in the wake of the crisis and beyond,

if we don’t reconsider existing values and endorse new ones,

if we don’t agree together and look to implement a new project for Lebanon, i

f we don’t unite (against the sectarian “leaders” and the Ponzi scheme financial system), then we will be doomed to relive the pre-mass upheaval (7iraal) situation.

Can’t go on with business as usual, this pre-disaster with the ones who fabricated the disaster, taking advantage of it and privatizing whole swathes of activities of general interest in an extremely brutalized and impoverished society at bargain prices.

Another economy is possible, another democracy is possible, another social contract is possible,

Another “vivre-ensemble” is possible, another leadership is possible, another governance is possible, and alternative values must be endorsed.

The value of life over the value of money; the citizenship over clientelism; the sovereignty of the state over the joint-violence of illegal arms and money;

The ethical banking over bank predation; the rights of depositors over the profitability of banks;

the responsible regulation by governments over the non-rule short-term financial speculation, led by greed rather than long-term profit-making, that took the overall Lebanese economy to the brink of catastrophe.

Meanwhile, an independent crisis management team is needed to damage control and we must go on with the revolt.

Don’t laugh, it’s your money

Rigoles pas, c’est ton pognon

Tu crois sérieusement que le pouvoir va soudain ouvrir les yeux et s’auto-réfomer?

Non, mais sérieusement, tu crois que, pris de remords, il va se faire harakiri?

Qu’il va sérieusement enquêter sur l’argent illégalement transféré en Suisse alors que celui-ci est légal puisque le pouvoir a lui-même fourni la couverture légale des transferts.

Mais sérieusement, tu crois que ces gens cupides, arrogants, menteurs et narcissiques qui ont fait main basse sur le pays (durant 30 ans) vont renoncer à leurs privilèges et devenir du jour au lendemain -qui- une sorte de clones de l’abbé Pierre?

Tu crois sincèrement que ceux qui ont pris l’habitude de voler les pauvres pour donner aux riches vont soudain changer et décider de rendre l’argent pillé pour le redistribuer aux pauvres?

Qu’un haircut des actifs bancaires pourraient t’épargner un wipeout de tes dépôts?

Tu crois sérieusement que la confiance perdue pourrait être retrouvée soudain et que les banques seraient capables de reprendre le business as usual sans restructuration, refinancement, responsabilisation, acquisition étrangère et consolidation?

Tu crois sérieusement que le système devrait encore être sauvé par le bas alors que seul son effondrement par le haut pourrait te sauver?

Sincèrement, tu crois que tu n’as pas une part de responsabilité dans ce qui t’arrive et que je suis trop pessimiste?

Don’t laugh, it’s your money

How to get out of Lebanon crisis?

Comment sortir de la crise?

Il faut constituer une équipe gouvernementale réduite, transitoire, homogène et dynamique, formée de ministres honnêtes, indépendants, crédibles, courageux et éduqués et de lui donner des pouvoirs législatifs pour mettre en oeuvre un plan de sortie de crise.

Au lieu de se focaliser sur l’identité des ministres, le pouvoir devra signer et s’engager à soutenir une feuille de route axée sur les réformes à entreprendre qui s’articule autour de l’édification de l’État, la lutte contre la corruption et la transition systémique.

La nature de la mission -sauver le pays- décidera des caractéristiques du gouvernement :

D’abord, le gouvernement doit faire honnêtement le bilan des actifs détruits, toxiques et ceux qui n’ont jamais existé.

Il faut effectuer un audit des états financiers des banques, de la Banque du Liban et de l’État afin de connaître la situation réelle de l’économie et d’apurer les comptes.

Ensuite le gouvernement doit attribuer les pertes d’une façon sage, juste et équitable.

Qui va perdre quoi ?

Ce qui revient à se demander “qui va payer” le coût de la crise.

C’est une question éminemment politique, une question de choix de société, de valeurs, de priorités, de justice sociale, et de mesures à prendre pour préserver les ressources communes et un vivre-ensemble dans l’avenir. Si le gouvernement ne fait rien, alors on laissera les pauvres gens payer le prix de l’irresponsabilité des puissants.

Il y’a deux façons de sortir d’une crise, par la confrontation ou par la coopération.

La confrontation n’est pas une option. Il faut trouver des alliés partout, a l’intérieur et à l’extérieur, forger avec eux des alliances et des réseaux dans le but de sauver le Liban.

Il est essentiel de ne pas s’enfermer, d’être ouvert, tolérant, de ne pas croire qu’on détient seuls la vérité ou la vertu, mais sans aucun compromis sur les principes.

Ensuite, troisième point, Il faut agir vite, prendre des mesures urgentes pour arrêter l’hémorragie. Le gouvernement doit être capable de prendre des décisions pour gérer la crise : un chirurgien n’a pas à demander, à chaque phase de l’opération, son avis au malade qui s’en est remis à lui du soin de le guérir.

Et s’il met trop de temps à opérer, il peut faire mourir son patient de douleur. Il faut mettre en œuvre des mesures transitoires rapides, efficaces, capables d’endiguer la misère et la souffrance, de contenir la défiance pour l’empêcher de se transformer en haine et de redonner un espoir.

Les gens ont besoin d’espoir et surtout de circuits alternatifs pour survivre. Mais l’urgence ne doit pas occulter la nécessité d’avoir une certaine vision de l’avenir.

C’est là l’essentiel. De tout ce qui précède, j’aimerais qu’on retienne au moins ceci : on ne peut sortir d’une crise, de quelque nature qu’elle soit, qu’en agissant dans l’intérêt des générations suivantes.

Pour cela, il faut initier une triple transition, économique, énergétique et démocratique. Il faut prendre conscience que le système qui s’est effondré ne doit plus être sauvé et qu’il est nécessaire de le changer. Il est surtout urgent de recadrer, de restructurer et de refinancer le secteur bancaire, d’adopter de vigoureuses mesures de relance de l’économie réelle, de redéfinir le rôle de l’État et de la politique.

Pendant ce temps, il incombe aux gens de saisir le momentum pour agir, pour s’organiser, pour constituer des mouvements politiques capables de défier les partis du système lors des prochaines élections législatives afin de transformer la colère en un projet.

How to get out of the crisis?




February 2023

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