Adonis Diaries

The five superpowers are abusing of a massive smoke screen to vilifying Iran’s nuclear program as a serious threat to world peace.  Why Russia and China went along?  It seems that the US gave the two States sizeable political concessions.  What about France and England, the lesser two “superpowers” with veto rights at the UN, meant to be the biggest losers in that agreement?  The oil multinationals of France and England have succumbed to the US pressures and are out of Iran.

Let us go back to the latest Presidential election in Iran in June 2009.  The western media and State governments shouted fraud and kept up the music loud and sustained the media pressure for a month until it died down.

The opposition candidate, Hussein Moussavi, had for allies the urban upper and middle classes, the bazar merchants, and the urban clerics or mullahs:  The urban mullahs wanted to weaken the Rahbar (Supreme Guide) Kamenei in order to regain lost power and re-dip freely in the treasury.  President Ahmadinejad had for allies the countryside, the poor clerics in the countryside, the bassidjis (Revolution Guards), and the majority of the lower middle class (the patriots aghast with western powers’ pressures) residing in the poorer quarters in urban centers.  It is to be noted that urban centers dwellers are as populous as countryside people in Iran.  The army had no interest supporting the opposition since Iran was embarking on self-sufficiency in manufacturing the military hardware:  The army was in no mood of renegotiating the defense budget.

Fact is, Ahmadi won the election.  The small margin was not appreciated by the Rahbar Kamenei.  The crackdown on the Moussavi’s “green movement” at the eve of the result counting and the following weeks was mainly a preemptive show of force meaning: “We have won.  Do not count on us to negotiating sharing power”.  More precisely, the Rahbar Khamenei was sending the strong message: “You, mullahs and Ayatollahs of urban centers in Teheran, Shiraz, Mashhad, Tabriz, and Isfahan, you go to hell.  I am the Supreme Guide and I won’t be sharing power.”

The western powers got the Iranian message clear and loud: “This is not the proper time for Iran to bow down to foreign pressures,  Iran will be steadfast to its policy of putting Iran on the map among the great countries, having the means to demonstrating its independence, self-sufficiency, and self-autonomy to decision-making”

The “veto superpowers” decided to send a counter message: “We are the only ones to deciding who is to be a totally independent and self-sufficient State.” They voted on a stricter economic and military embargo.  The embargo is targeting the basseji (Revolutionary Guard) trade infrastructures that Ahmadi managed to institute as alternative competitor to the urban bazaars.  Anyway, the opposition lacks military organizations to counter the well-organized bassijis.

The embargo cannot hurt the lower middle class in Iran:  The government has opened up enough infrastructure projects to put this class to work.  The Revolutionary Guard has no alternative but to expand its businesses and to displacing the urban bazar merchants and wholesalers in the distribution of goods.  In medium-term, it is the middle class (the “green movement” opposition of this current government)  that will be crying “Uncle”.  But the US will feel helpless coming to their rescue:  The US will be striking deals with Ahmadi to getting out of Iraq and Afghanistan with the least cost possible.

My impression is that the blockade will not last effectively:  Russia and China have vast interests in Iran and are already worrying that the US is striking a deal with Iran at their expense.  Western Europe has most to lose in that conflict and will be sidetracked when the clouds clear-up:  France and England will scream “Uncle”.  But “Uncle Sam” is bankrupt and can no longer afford to extending another Marshal Plan to succor Europe.

The Iranian middle class of professionals and intellectuals have to get back to work; what they used to do in the US and overseas before they returned to Iran:  Working without shame and contributing to the effective nation’s production.  Working with and among the people is the foundation of individual dignity and means to efficient reforms:  The middle class in Iran has to stop playing coy.

Note:  Already Iran has secured an exit port to the Mediterranean Sea in Lebanon.  The latest extended visit of President Ahmadinejad to Lebanon was meant to fine tune his strategic position on the Mediterranean Sea as Iran will embark on producing inexpensive consumer goods.   It would be interesting for Lebanese merchants, with footholds in most of African States, to generating excellent profits when Iran begin building warehouses in Lebanese ports.  Most likely, Turkey will feel the heat for competition with its inexpensive goods, but most likely Iran and Turkey will iron out major divergences:  They have no alternatives but to cooperate closely.

Note 2: Empress Catherine of Russia managed an exit to the Black Sea “The jewel to my crown” in the late 18th century:  Currently, 80% of the Black Sea maritime trades as done by Russia merchant ships.