Posts Tagged ‘Warren Buffet’
Special cases? Discarding evidences to fit your Confirmation biases model
Posted on: October 10, 2014
Special cases? Discarding evidence to fit your Confirmation biases model
Confirmation bias maybe the mother of all misconceptions.
Once we believe that a program, a product, an idea… is successful, we refuse to let go, even if we are presented with tons of proofs to the contrary.
This is basically the paradigm shift problem with all disciplines
If we are unable to insert a new piece of intelligence or information in our existing worldview model as a compatible element, it is hard to accept the new addition or understand it. This is called the Disconfirming Evidence tendency.
Although facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored, “what the human is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact” Warren Buffet
And Charles Darwin found a method to circumvent this confirmation bias: Any observation that contradicted his theory, he took it seriously and noted it down immediately. The more correct he judged his theory, the more actively he looked for contradicting aspects.
We deal with all kinds of assumptions. The more nebulous they are, the stronger the confirmation bias.
You may utter prophesies so vague that any event can substantiate them.
Religious and philosophical system of beliefs represent an excellent breeding ground for this bias.
Economists fall prey to this bias by predicting the economic trend.
Business journalists suffer most from this bias: rarely the journalist seeks out disconfirming evidences to what he formulated on a company’s cause for success or failure.
Self-help and Get-rich quickly books are excellent examples of blinkered storytelling.
Axing beliefs that feel like Old Friends is hard work, but it should be an imperative task.
When you hear “This is a special case”, you better tend your ears and be on your guard. Most probably, your consultant refuses to alter his model.
Actually, all laws are special cases. Why?
Laws are valid within certain restrictions, constraints, conditions and range of application.
If you neglect or ignore these limitations of the parameters that a law is supposed to function within, your solution is out of bound and erroneous.
This behavior is typical to most novices in any field of practice, and they keep falling into these traps and generate dire consequences until they learn to become professionals.
Note: this is the second in a series of three articles targeted intended to simplifying the explanation of the causes (not the mechanisms) of the financial crash of Wall Street and offering an alternative resolution.
The American Manifesto of the 21st century (October 6, 2008)
We all know by now that the September 11, 2001 attack on the Twin Towers and its consequences in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Moslem World, in general, were the events of the decade. We do feel deep in our guts that the fall of Wall Street and its results would be the events of the century. The fall of the last bastion of unbridled capitalism is shaking the World economy and sending strong Tsunami waves to global finance and investment institutions all around.
The US Federal government is nationalizing the major failing commercial banks and a few investment banks, which are the foundation and symbol of greedy capitalism. For the time being the Federal government has bailed out AIG and then nationalized Goldman & Sacks and G.P. Morgan who would have the task of purchasing the remaining failing financial institutions. Since when you could conceive the two relatively puny institutions of G&S and G.P. Morgan to purchase Washington Mutual and other giants for a nickel? What organizations are behind Goldman & Sacks and G.P. Morgan to obtain formal nomination of the US Federal government for the nationalization process?
It is well documented that minor cataclysms generate abundance of investigation and then public coverage but the coverage of seismic cataclysms that are financial in nature are relegated to professional manuscripts that the general public would not touch with a long pole. Did anyone read any serious coverage of the financial repercussions of the September 11 nightmare or the bankruptcy of the energy giant ENRON? If anyone, so far, comprehend the causes of the fall of Wall Street then please disseminate your knowledge profusely and immediately.
One hint though; follows the money trails and you will catch the head criminals. Astute Warren Buffet has already invested 5 billions in Goldman & Sacks or 10% of the shares; thus, this is a strong lead to follow. The most direct way for grabbing significant threads is by investigating Vice President Cheney and his inner circle; they were fundamentally following orders of the malefic financial giant organizations that are behind the turmoil of this decade.
I wonder though why the fall of Wall Street happened when the last bastions of communism (China) definitely shifted gears to participate in the new world economic order! The fall of Wall Street should have taken place shortly after September 11, 2001. The invasion of poor Afghanistan was not credible to infuse over 3 trillion dollars into the already failing financial institutions in the USA through fraud and the scapegoat of a major war against “terrorism”. The Bush Administration, and the behind the scene nefarious financial organizations, needed to invade rich Iraq and blackmail the neighboring tiny Arab Emirate States to redirect the swindle on the largest scale through front re-construction companies such as Bechtel and Halliburton and others private security companies. The Iraqi war could not cost that much money and certainly the Iraqi people didn’t notice any beneficial change in their daily lives for six years and they are much worse everyday.
This gimmick of infusing another 700 billion dollars from the US citizens taxes is basically one of the last payments of the Federal government to the financial mega mafias. For a year, those malefic financial mafias might lie low to ride off the anger of the US people and then the same cohabitation and capitalist schemes will resume under laws riddled with loopholes as large as elephants.
They say that everything is politics; but in capitalist systems, where political structures are fundamentally legal front for the mega financial mafias to bleed dry the citizens then, capitalism is what defines politics. If you want to investigate any political decision then, your best bet is to follow the financial traces. I urge the US citizens not to wait and see! If you do not do your homework now, and before the 700 billions are issued, and then actively revisit the US political structures then the same cycle would recur at a nastier magnitude.
Adonis Diaries 