Posts Tagged ‘what’s happening in Bahrain’
Who is the “Palpitating Heart of Arabism”? What’s going on in Syria? Part 3
Posted by: adonis49 on: March 28, 2011
Who is the “Palpitating Heart of Arabism”? What’s going on in Syria? Part 3
US State Secretary Clinton declared “No one is to think that we are to repeat exactly the same involvement in Syria as we did in Libya”.
This implicit threat to Syria for the latest mass upheavals is meant to encourage more “peaceful” demonstrations and test Syria’s reactions. The purpose of that declaration is to offend the Syrian regime and push it into violent counter-offensive.
Syria has already extended many reforms in response to the uprising in Daraa, Banias, and Latiquieh. For example, the Baath Party is no longer to be the leading party in Syria as mentioned in the Constitution.
The Emergency Law, enforced since 1963, has been canceled.
A packaged of reforms on salary increases, loosening of prison terms, taking news-people to court instead of being imprisoned first, the release of political prisoners, laws on forming political parties to be reviewed, and more freedom of expressions…are to be sent to the Parliament for approval and ratification. Only after the turmoil is over, and all the armed people deliver their weapons to the State…!
President Bashar Assad is expected to deliver a televised speech…Already 260 political prisoners from the various demonstrations, mostly Islamists, have been set free.
The last two weeks could be accounted as the longest and most terrifying events for the Syrian president, Bashar Assad.
External interventions could not scare the Syrian regime, but vast internal unrest is a serious different story: Internal uprisings are to be considered very seriously, since they are not that frequent in Syria, at least in news media.
Vast internal uprisings mean that the people have broken the barrier of fear:
The revolted citizens are willing to fight for regained dignity at the price of blood; and that exactly what many demonstrators said: “We are no longer afraid of the regime brutal tactics”
That the recent demonstrators are not that afraid of the Syrian regime is not earth chattering: Since Bashar succeeded to his father Hafez in 2000, the regime did not exhibit violent repressions, not in any scale for the media to cover.
At best, the repressions were judged mild compared to the other Arab dictatorial and absolute monarchy political systems. Though the image of an all-encompassing internal security hold on power has been demonstrated frequently.
Young dictators who emerged from lower social classes like Qadhafi, Abdel Nasser, Abdallah Saleh of Yemen…were very promising figures of their period.
Bashar Assad is a young dictator, power inherited from the oligarchic class, and is serious about reforms for developing his country. Bashar and his wife scoured the Syrian countryside and listed about 40,000 families of the poorest in the State and allocated monthly stipend for them.
Bashar is not living in any palace, but in an apartment in Damascus. Bashar and his wife occasionally mingle with the people …
The uprisings in Syria are qualitatively different from other Arab States: Syria has demonstrated during this century that it is in fact the heart and mind of the Arabic concept.
Actually, Damascus was the Capital of the first Arabic/Islamic Empire (around 650 AC) and was the main bedrock for the development of the Arabic language and the dissemination of the new Empire civilization.
Syria was constantly steadfast for the dignity of Arab identity and civilization. Syria has so far refused a peace treaty with Israel unless the Palestinian people recover their independent State…
We expect many reforms, but it would be tough for Bashar to reconsider giving away the oligarchic interests of the Assad extended family.
For example, the Syrian people might expect that a new modern Constitution be redrawn deleting the clause that “Islam is the religion of the State“. Actually, Hafez Assad, after his successful military coup, deleted that clause in 1972, only to re-attach it as he was faced with monster protests.
I say, State should oppose protests by extending on the ground vaster civic reforms.
I say, if protest should be quelled, let it be for rotation of the highest positions of Presidency, Prime Minister, and Head of Parliament among the Sunni, Alawi, and Christian sects.
I say, if protest should be faced head on, let it be for democratic equitable election laws.
There are tacit blackout of information by most media channels, western, and Arab States for disseminating useful intelligent pieces on the uprising.
A few cable news mention over 100 killed, particularly in the southern city of Daraa, on the borders with Jordan. The Syrian media displayed arms stocked in the Daraa mosque and denunciation of violent infiltrated elements.
Syria has grown to 20 million in population.
Amid the turmoil in the Middle-East, Syria of the “Assad/Baath party” socialist regime managed to bring a semblance of stability and security. It maintained a steady currency and invested in decent infrastructure and schooling for all.
Invariably, oligarchic regimes ends up getting involved in widespread corruptions and considering the State Treasury as family holdings.
Most probably, the Syrian people want a moratorium on dictators, oligarchies, and absolute monarchies.
Sort of “it is okay, a decade later, for these forms of governance to return to the front scene?” For the time being, most people are exhausted with decades of dictatorial regimes and want some fresh air to blowing away layers of technocrats that were trained to be amoral and unethical by serving the enduring power-to-be.
The steadfast and determined mass protests in the Arab States are the result of the population knowing full well the vengeful tribal mentality of their rulers: The masses know that if they relent before the entire structure is gone, that any reprieve to the oligarchic system, means the reorganization and launching of mass arrests, summarily executions, humiliation tactics, and an open climate of terror.
Determination of the masses is the result of innate survival process: Either they win or they are massacred.
Do you think that the Ben Ali and Mubarak would have learned the lesson of respecting their people desires and wants?
In Yemen, the people are not relinquishing their marches since the uprising started a month ago: They know the reactions of the kinds of Abdullah Salef if he is given a breathing space.
Anyone doubt that Qadhafi would not have wiped out a third of the Libyan population if the UN postponed indefinitely any resolution for imposing a “No fly zone”?
You have an excellent demonstration of what’s happening in Bahrain: The King has arrested all the leaders of the uprising, is readying to hire one thousand Pakistani soldiers, cut diplomatic relations with Iran and Lebanon on the basis that Hezbollah denounced the strong-arm tactics of this monarchy, and prohibited the Lebanese immigrants, legally working in Bahrain, from returning home and considering every Lebanese as enemy to their stupid monarchy, and on…
Do not be surprised when you hear news of blatant atrocities and crimes against humanity are perpetrated openly in Bahrain.
The main problem in the Arab World of dictators is not how rich the country is in natural resources, but the demographic explosion.
The process goes as follows: Every dictator has his intimate sources of insider pieces of intelligence on the wealth of the other members of the “club of scums”. They are jealous and want to be implicitly the number one on the list of the richest families hoarding wealth. The leftover in the treasury has to be spent on the growing mouths to feed. Thus, Egypt with over 80 million, the Egyptian is far hungrier than say the Syrian or Tunisians, and the odds for volatile tensions far higher.
Syria maintained a strong alliance with Iran for three decades and currently established firm alliance with Turkey. The regimes of Mubarak of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan kept the squeeze on Syria by orders from the USA for two decades.
Syria had close ties with Libya of Qadhafi and is still supporting Qadhafi with jet pilots, until the “No Fly Zone” was established.
The Syrian regime masterfully kept diplomatic dialogue with the US Administrations and reached many tacit agreements in cooperating with the US in Iraq, even though Syria is included in the “black list” as a “rogue State” not entirely supporting the US policies.
It is obvious that no foreign alliances can withstand the new wrath of the people for everlasting regimes of dictators, one-party regimes, and absolute monarchies.
Lebanon youth have been demonstrating for a secular political structure. The monarchy in Morocco is witnessing mass upheavals in 40 cities. Time for outraged is not going to subside any time soon.
Can Bashar push forward to substantial reforms? Does he has the will and the charisma to shake off decades of lethargy in this bureaucratic regime? The coming two weeks will inform us of “What is next to Bashar”.
What’s going on in Syria? Any insider pieces of intelligence? Part 2
Posted by: adonis49 on: March 26, 2011
What’s going on in Syria? Any insider pieces of intelligence? Part two
That may have been the longest and most terrifying week for the Syrian president Bashar Assad. External interventions could not scare the Syrian regime, but vast internal unrest is another different story to consider very seriously.
For example, since 2005, the French president Jacques Chirac had a priority and a fixation to dismantle the one-party rule in Syria, especially the Assad oligarchy that ruled Syria since 1971.
Chirac blamed Syria for the assassination of ex-prime Minister Rafic Hariri and did his best to condemn Syria via the International Court on Lebanon.
US President Bush Jr. also wanted this occurrence as Syria initially refused to support the unilateral US invasion of Iraq in 2003, until Bush discovered that he badly needs the cooperation of Syria with the open vast borders with Iraq.
France Sarkozy and Obama are no longer interested in exercising any seriuos pressures on Syria: Syria is entirely off the hook from the International Court on Lebanon.
Obviously, Israel relied on the Assad family and did its best convincing rhetorics for that clan to remain in power: The Israeli occupied Golan Heights were the most secure and safest place on earth since 1973.
Information on the two-week long uprising and demonstrations in several Syrian cities and the Capital Damascus are controversial and not covered in details. There are intended blackout by most media channels, western, and Arab States for disseminating useful intelligent pieces.
A few cable news mention over 100 killed, particularly in the southern city of Daraa, on the borders with Jordan. The Syrian media displayed arms stocked in the Daraa mosque and denunciation of violent infiltrated elements.
The Syrian dictatorial regime responded with promises of vast reforms from instant increase in wages, the release of political prisoners, laws on forming political parties to be reviewed, and more freedom of expressions… The Syrian Baath party faction is to meet today for critical analysis of the situations and considering alternative reforms.
Bashar Assad is a young dictator and serious about development reforms, as all young dictators think. For example, Qadhafi, Abdel Nasser, Abdallah Saleh of Yemen…were very promising figures of their period.
It would be tough for Bashar to reconsider giving away the oligarchic interests of the Assad extended family.
Most probably, the Syrian people want a moratorium on dictators, oligarchy, and absolute monarchies. Sort of it is okay, a decade later, for these forms of governance to return to the front scene?
For the time being, most people are exhausted with decades of dictatorial regimes and want some fresh air to blowing away layers of technocrats that were trained to be amoral and unethical by serving the enduring power-to-be.
The steadfast and determined mass protests are the result of the population knowing full well the vengeful tribal mentality of their rulers: The masses know that if they relent before the entire structure is gone and that any reprieve to the oligarchic system means the reorganization and launching of mass arrests, summarily executions, humiliation tactics, and an open climate of terror.
The Determination of the masses is the result of innate survival process: Either they win or they are massacred.
Do you think that the Ben Ali and Mubarak would have learned the lesson of respecting their people desires and wants? In Yemen, the people are not relinquishing their marches since the uprising started a month ago: They know the reactions of the kinds of Abdullah Salef if he is given a breathing space. Anyone doubt that Qadhafi would not have wiped out a third of the Libyan population if the UN postponed indefinitely any resolution for imposing a “No fly zone”?
You have an excellent demonstration of what’s happening in Bahrain: The King has arrested all the leaders of the uprising, is readying to hire one thousand Pakistani soldiers, cut diplomatic relations with Iran and Lebanon on the basis that Hezbollah denounced the strong arm tactics of this monarchy, and prohibited the Lebanese immigrants, legally working in Bahrain, from returning home and considering every Lebanese as enemy to their stupid monarchy, and on… Do not be surprised when you hear news of blatant atrocities and crimes against humanity are perpetrated openly in Bahrain.
In 1980, Hafez Assad encircled the city of Hama with his special troops, entered the city, and never ever left the city.
There were no serious coverage of what happened. Every now and then, when the US is unhappy with the regime of Hafez, innuendos would circulate that Assad slaughtered 20,000 Syrians living in Hama. It is an unbelievable number to take seriously: Just disposing of the bodies of a number of that magnitude in a short time would overthrow any regime, even Hitler and Stalin.
In any case, many Sunni Moslems in Hama, expressing dislike for the Alawi regime, disappeared. No international court or any indictment by the UN ever materialized. Nobody know, even today, the number of casualties: Not the exact number but the scale; is it in the dozen, hundreds, or thousands…?
On Friday of last week, mass upheavals were spreading in Syria; from the city of Daraa by the borders with Jordan, to Banyas, Tartous, Homs, and way to the north in the Kurdish region. Last week, there were a couple of shy demonstrations localized in Damascus demanding the liberation of political prisoners. Four demonstrators were killed in Daraa.
President Bashar Assad sent two official delegates to pay condolence to the bereaved families of the dead citizens. As they finished their visit, the two delegates had three more casualties on hand.
The Syrian government blamed “infiltrators” disguised in internal security outfit to ordering live ammunition shooting on peaceful marchers. The infiltrators also burned the headquarter of the one-party Baath regime and the court of justice in the city. You have to admit that the “infiltrators” are awfully skilled: The government security specialists have proven to be no match to infiltrators.
The President Bashar Assad had decreed last week the liberation of most prisoners, political and non political, those over 70 years and the terminally sick…Maybe it was just a promise? As all promises that the people have been hearing for decades?
I guess Bashar forgot to mention that the political system needed to be reformed and that the Assad regime, father to son, since 1971, has to make rooms for democratic succession and away from a “one-party” rule.
Syria has grown to 20 million in population. Amid the turmoil in the Middle-East, Syria of the Assad socialist regime managed to bring sort of stability and security; it maintained a steady currency and invested in decent infrastructure and schooling for all. Invariably, oligarchic regimes ends up getting involved in widespread corruptions and considering the State Treasury as family holdings.
Bashar succeeded to his father in 2000. Israel unilaterally retreated from south Lebanon in 2000, quickly and never turning back to facing the deadly blows of the Lebanese resistance forces. Instead of announcing a timetable for the retreat of Syrian troops from Lebanon, the new Syrian President got immersed resolving side problems and affirming his power, until Hariri was assassinated in 2005 and the Syrian troops felt it wise to retreat from all Lebanon.
The Assad regime is based on the minority Alawi sect, a kind of Shia sect, and most of the sensitive positions in the army and internal security system are in the hands of the extended family members. The Syria Baath party made alliance with a few political parties for the Parliament, but there is a deep sense that the structure of this regime is fundamentally an oligarchic system.
The Syrian regime masterfully kept diplomatic dialogue with the US Administrations and reached many tacit agreements in cooperating with the US in Iraq, even though Syria is included in the “black list” as a “rogue State” not entirely supporting the US policies.
Syria maintained a strong alliance with Iran for three decades and currently extended firm alliance with Turkey. The regimes of Mubarak of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan kept the squeeze on Syria by orders from the USA for two decades. Syria had close ties with Libya of Qadhafi and is still supporting Qadhafi with jet pilots, until the “No Fly Zone” was established.
Two days ago, Syria announced its support to the expeditionary Saudi forces in Bahrain on the premises that these forces were legitimate since they were demanded by the King of Bahrain! In the meanwhile, Iran vehemently denounced these incursions into Bahrain and is against Qadhafi. Thus, Syria flaunted Iran’s policies in the region twice in less than two days. Syria is wooing the alliance of Egypt and Saudi Arabia in order to ward off the current mass Arab uprising everywhere. Maybe Syria made a hasty move away from Iran before securing its internal stability with new political reforms.
It is obvious that no foreign alliances can withstand the new wrath of the people for everlasting regimes of dictators, one-party regimes, and absolute monarchies.
Lebanon youth have been demonstrating for a secular political structure.
The monarchy in Morocco is witnessing mass upheavals in 40 cities.
Time for outraged is not going to subside any time soon.
Adonis Diaries 