Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Will Roger

 The Will Roger phenomenon? Stage migration of averages, patients, IQ…

Will Roger stated that the migrating people from Oklahoma (during the dust bowl period) to California have raised the IQ in both States. How that?

I am trying to figure out this logic that is not based on any study

I guess Will Roger thought that the thousands of ignorant and the less educated people from Oklahoma who migrated to California have left a pool of the better educated in the State and thus the IQ must have been raised.

But how these same immigrants raised the IQ in the State of California?

I conjecture that Roger was alluding to the preponderant theory that white people have higher IQ than Hispanics and Black people of the same education level.

Consequently, the people in California enjoyed an infusion of higher IQ white people.

Any other interpretations?


Other kinds of average stage migration effects.

Cancer patients are classified in 4 stages of seriousness, with class 1 as curable cancers patients.

With increasingly new and advanced diagnostic techniques in medicine, many previously found “healthy” patients are being screened with minuscule tumors.

Consequently, the addition of relatively healthy patients in cancer “stage one” prognosis increases the group’s average life expectancy.

There is no medical success in this case: Just mere stage migration from the most treatable group to the worst rated group 4.


It is easy to raise the averages in many cases, but the end result is the same.

For example: suppose you have two branches of a car dealership in the city. Branch A has 3 salespeople selling one, two and three cars respectively per day

Branch B has 3 salespeople selling 4, 5, and 6 cars respectively per week

You hire a consultant to increase the average car sales in the 2 branches.

The consultant transfers salesman #4 to branch A. The average in branch A jumped from  2 cars to 2.5.

The average in branch B jumped from 5 to 5.5.

The overall car sales remained the same. Only the averages changed to give the illusion of performance.

Switcheroo strategies don’t change anything overall: a simple creation of illusory improvement.

Note: Read Rolf Dobelli “The Art of Thinking Clear”




May 2023

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