Adonis Diaries

Federal Libya: As I predicted?

Ahmad Zubeir Sherif Sanoussi, a close relative of late former king of Libya,  and who was jailed by Qadhafi for 31 years, is leading a coalition of over 3,000 tribal leaders, politicians, and intellectuals in Eastern Libya, named the Federal State of Barca.

This Benghazi province produce three forth of Libya’s oil and is on the border with Egypt. This province was neglected by Gadhafi for 3 decades because his tribes were not from this location and Al Qaeda was mostly concentrated there…

This eastern coalition that met in conference in Benghazi is “waiting for Libya Transitional National Council to get in touch with it and start negotiation…”  Ahmad Zubeir Sherif Sanoussi was recently selected to be a member of the Transitional Council.

The Federated Barca adopts the Constitution of 1951 as the starting source for any revision and reforms on any Constitution.  The Constitution of 1951 called for 3 Federal States of Barca, Tripoli, and Fezzan (south-west Libya).

Libya Transitional National Council is headed by Chairman Mustafa Abd Jalil who blurted out the strong military alternative for any negotiation before retracting…

In a surprise move, US President Obama scheduled hurriedly a meeting in the White House (March 8) with Abd Rahim Kib, Libya PM. Obama urged Kib to work on the promise for a Parliament election in late June.

Libya Transitional National Council is facing serious problems in demonstrating its validity:

First, the border entrance of Ras Jadir with Tunisia is taken over by the people of the nearby city of Zuwara,

Second, the Capital airport of Tripoli is held by the Zentan militias,

Third, the port and airport of the city of Misrata is in the hand of the militias,

Fourth, all crucifix on tombs have been removed by the extremist Moslems…and the list is long on the fact that Libya is not under appreciable control

The international oil companies are worried for any renegotiation of contracts:  Every Federal State, relying on oil production would prefer to get the highest bid possible…

In a previous article, I predicted “Libya after Qadhafi” https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2011/06/27/most-plausible-resolution-to-the-revolt-in-libya/ and stated:

“The most plausible resolution, after satisfying the pre-requisite of ceasing the power of Qadhafi and his bloody sons, is the following:

First, Libya would be federated into two States:  The eastern State based in the Capital Benghazi, and the western State based in the Capital Tripoli.

The Federal government would be relocated to the city of Sert, in the middle of the long coast line of 1,700 kilometers, the historical dividing line between the two concentration of people and tribes (and where Qadhafi was born).

Second, the oil revenue (constituting 90% of the GNP) will be split into three parts: 40% to each State and 20% for maintaining the central government and its key federal institutions such as army, foreign affairs, currency…

Third, federal revenues will be proportionally budgeted and allocated to the people living in the deep desert oasis such as Kufra and Sebha“.