Adonis Diaries

I can figure out how the next pre-emptive war of Israel on Syria and Lebanon will unfold.

Since 2008, and for 33 days, Israel with the planning and total support of USA and Saudi Kingdom, launched an 8th pre-emptive war on Lebanon.  The plan decided for September was advanced in June 22 after Hezbollah managed to capture Israeli prisoners and kill 8 more in a hurried counter-attack by a tank commander.

Ever since, Israel is totally wary to contemplate another foolish and devastating military defeat, agreed by most world community observers. Israel had to beg Bush Jr to desist pressuring it to continue the fight and UN resolution 1701 was voted on for a cease fire.

The next day thousands of Lebanese refugees, fleeing war, returned to their homes. They discarded the warnings of the government and threw makeshift bridges to cross destroyed bridges and bombed highways. It took the Israelis 6 months to return to their homes.

Every year, Israel spend plenty of money in military maneuvers to convince Hezbollah that it is ready for another match of revenge. Most Israeli commentators agree that Israel internal readiness is Not prepared for any such kinds of long-protracted war and the army itself don’t want any such adventure: the soldiers are still in shock and receiving treatment for the surprises they were Not warned of them.

No, Israel, on its own volition will Not attempt another pre-emptive war, but since USA considers Israel as its land fighter carrier, the possibility that Israel will be dragged manu-military to engage in another war on Lebanon and Syria if USA decided to frighten Iran by a “Chock and Awe” massive bombing tactics.

There will be no short war and matter will deteriorate.

Pressured by US for military support in a critical pre-emptive war in the Persian Gulf, Israel will lukewarmly launch a massive airstrike in the neighboring States, hoping that it would be a short-term war for face saving initiative and a divergence tactic for the real US engagement on Iran.

Hezbollah reaction will be to target all Israel airfields and communication centers and ignite monster fires everywhere in Israel. The next missile strikes will target the electrical and energy grids.

If Iran decides to prolong the war, it will order Hezbollah to fall back on the plan of effective incursions inside Israel.

Then the third missile launch will focus on Israel military and logistic centers, civilian and military, in Israel central region, to disturb transportation and movement of troops.

The fourth missile strikes will target the essential ports and submarines concentrated in Eshkelon and in central Israel.

Hezbollah navy commandos will land on the seashore in central Israel, capture a few ports and towns around them. This attack will divide Israel into two parts and pressure Israel to decide where to focus its army.

If Israel transfer troops from the north by the Golan Heights, Syria army will launch a counter-offensive to re-conquer the Hights, all the way to the Houla city.

If Israel transfer troops from around Gaza, Hamas and Jihad Islamic militias will attempt to link with the West Bank.

From then on, all possibilities are open to be contemplated.

If the West Bank Palestinians managed to acquire and store weapons, strategic settlements around West Jerusalem will be first attacked and massive fleeing of Israeli to East Jerusalem and Tel Aviv will be underway.

Settlers would prefer to vacate the lands in West Jerusalem, hoping that a negotiated cease fire will allow them to return to a few settlements.

Hopefully, Hezbollah has a plan to move and capture Nablus up north, re-take a few strategic settlements around this city and start transferring weapons and foodstuff to Palestinians in that region for a protracted defensive resistance.

The cease fire will ensure that Israel Parliament rescind its law that Israel is Only for the Jews and that West Jerusalem is the Capital of the Palestinian Homeland State.

The defunct British mandated law of administrative detention will be cancelled.

Palestinian refugees will be allowed to return.

Note: This narrative is based on current situation. If the monarchy in Jordan is deposed in the blood, the longest border with Israel will become the coup-de grace for Israel existence. Palestinians in Jordan will infiltrate and occupy settlement along the Jordan river.

No land mines or massive bombing will prevent the stampede on existing settlements for the Return Home and witnessing the mass fleeing of Israelis.

Once The Palestinians in Jordan link up with the West Bank, a totally new scenario will be negotiated at the UN for a new status of Palestine and Israel.