Adonis Diaries

Author Archive

A Universal Fact: We are “wasting our time“, waiting for the Time to come, hopefully with the least of pain. We rely on a daily routine to avoid any suicidal urge for the duration. And when the Time come, a total oblivion of who we were and what we have done

Si les interets des dettes des pays sous-developes etaient au meme niveau des pays coloniaux, il n’y aurait plus de guerre. Ce n’est pas ce que veulent les coloniaux .Colonial powers loan each other at 3% and the underdeveloped States have to borrow above 6%

The Bibles are not famous for historical accuracies: they were not written by the dozens of scribes for that purpose.

The Bibles are excellent sources as repositories of the customs and traditions in the Near East, which are still practiced for over six thousand of years.

I say: social sciences are meant to comprehend History. Once we think we can interpret history, we start re-editing social sciences principles

For most of us, we still be using the technology that was used 50 years ago., if still available on the market. Even the richest people will use the same kind of chairs, desks, utensils, beds… with redesigns slightly different.

There are 200,000 foreign domestic workers in Lebanon alone (Taking care of the house and children) mostly from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Africa , and we complains of working Syrians and Palestinians. The pandemics and the conditions have forced many domestic workers to vacate Lebanon. The Syrian families are now taking care of Lebanese vacated houses.

Lumper-proletariat? Proletariat a guenilles des bidonvilles, shantytowns, the most abject extreme poor

L’ intellectuel communist a une idee precise de ses propre sous-classes qui le terrorise.

I guess Lebanon Communists are the most frightened of the ever increased number of Lebanon Lumper-proletariat

There is No longer enough concrete Capital (real production and export…) in order to negotiate any “peace treaty”.

Yes, China, and in a few decades India, will dominate the global economy.

Lebanon will already have vanished from the maps. As Google made Palestine vanish from the map.

Why all these wars?
For a “leader” to sustain a standing army, the army has to be kept on the Move, when the “brass” (high officers) start feeling restless for actions (at the expense of the soldiers).

Frequent turnover of the brass leave them to demonstrate their wrath by marching as Veterans

A novel needs characters, actions, easy dialogue…
Yes, life is a novel during the active periods
No, it is Not when we are left on our own, isolated, “stressless”.
It is an ideal period in older age to write theater pieces of plenty of dialogue, of us looking inside our soul.

This narrative is based on the memoires of leaders who cannot write and try their best to sweeten their shameful “feats”.

These memoires never seriously condemn any Israeli war of occupation campaigns, especially the hateful slaughter-hood in Lebanon and denying the citizens in West Beirut of water and bread for over a month. And bombing entire high rises with all their occupants.

Mind you that after the retreat of the Multinational forces of USA, France and Italy, Israel entered the civilian Palestinian camps of Sabra and Shatila: 1,900 Lebanese and 4,000 Palestinians were killed and a few thousands vanished.

نبيل الخوري Nabil Khoury. Sept. 26, 2022

ماذا يقول الأميركيّون عن الاجتياح الإسرائيلي للبنان عام 1982?

إذا أراد الأميركيون أن يتغنّوا بإنجازاتهم الدبلوماسية في تاريخ العلاقات الدولية، يمكنهم إدراج دورهم خلال الاجتياح الإسرائيلي للبنان وحصار بيروت في العام 1982، ضمن قائمة تلك الإنجازات.

حينها، طبّق الأميركيون ذلك المبدأ الذي يقول إن الدبلوماسية تأتي لتحلّ ما تعجز القوّة العسكرية عن حلّه وحدها.

أرسلت الإدارة الأميركية مبعوثها، فيليب حبيب، في مهمة هدفها المباشر التوصل إلى اتفاق وقف إطلاق النار.

لكنّ هدفها الأساسي كان يتمثل في وضع حد للوجود الفلسطيني المسلح في لبنان، أي خروج «منظمة التحرير الفلسطينية» وياسر عرفات من بيروت.

في صيف 1982، كان الجيش الإسرائيلي يُفْرِط في استخدام القوة.

أما فيليب حبيب، فكان يفاوض بحزم وبدم بارد، ونجح.

عرفات ومقاتلوه غادروا لبنان إلى تونس. وهذا نجاح لا يُنسَب لحبيب وبراعته التفاوضية فحسب، بل للدبلوماسية الأميركية ككل.

قصة هذا النجاح يرويها أولئك الذين كانوا في مركز صنع القرار الأميركي. أبرزهم الرئيس رونالد ريغان، في مذكراته عنوان An American Life، الصادرة سنة 1990، ووزير الخارجية الذي استقال خلال الاجتياح، ألكساندر هيغ، في كتاب له صدر سنة 1984 بعنوان Caveat: Realism, Reagan and Foreign Affairs، إضافةً إلى جورج شولتز الذي حلّ محل هيغ، والذي يستفيض بالحديث عن مرحلة الاجتياح وما بعده في مذكراته بعنوان Turmoil and Triumph: My Years as Secretary of State، التي صدرت سنة 1993.


موقف دفاعيّ أميركيّ

في محاولة لتجنُّب تهمة الانحياز الأعمى لصالح إسرائيل، يؤكد هيغ أنّ واشنطن طلبت من إسرائيل، في أواخر أيار 1982، عدم القيام بتدخّل عسكري في لبنان، لكنّ تل أبيب رفضت الانصياع لهذا الطلب الأميركي.

ويروّج هيغ لهذا الرفض باعتباره إثباتاً على أن واشنطن غير قادرة على منع الهجوم الإسرائيلي الذي كانت حكومة مناحيم بيغن تعتزم شنّه إذا تعرضت إسرائيل لاستفزاز واضح عبر الحدود أو في جميع أنحاء العالم.

وهو ما حصل عندما حاولت مجموعة فلسطينية تابعة لأبو نضال اغتيال سفير تل أبيب بلندن في 3 حزيران 1982. فاستخدمت إسرائيل هذه العملية  كذريعة لاجتياح لبنان.

الخطاب الأميركي حافظ على منطقه الدفاعي، حتى بعد بدء الاجتياح في 6 حزيران 1982.

المدافع هذه المرة هو الرئيس نفسه: رونالد ريغان. واشنطن تعترف بحق إسرائيل في الدفاع عن الحدود، لكن ريغان يؤكد أنه لم يكن يوافق على غزو لبنان، على الرغم من إبلاغه بعد بدئه بأن هدف العملية يتمثل في إبعاد قوات «منظمة التحرير الفلسطينية» 40 كيلومتراً عن حدود إسرائيل.

في نظر ريغان، يتحمل خصم الولايات المتحدة في الحرب الباردة، أي الاتحاد السوفياتي، مسؤولية ما جرى.

يروي الرئيس الأميركي كيف قال لنظيره، ليونيد بريجنيف، إن الاتحاد السوفياتي مسؤول إلى حد كبير عن الأزمة الحالية في الشرق الأوسط، لعدم دعمه اتفاق كامب ديفيد (اتفاق السلام بين مصر وإسرائيل سنة 1978) ولأنه لم يستخدم نفوذه على سوريا ومنظمة التحرير الفلسطينية من أجل تحقيق الاستقرار في لبنان الذي كان غارقاً في حرب أهلية دامية منذ سنة 1975.

لكنّ كلام المسؤولين الأميركيين عن رفض فكرة الاجتياح، هو مجرد موقف دبلوماسي صوريّ. فالتعبير الرسمي عنه لا يعني أن واشنطن كانت تعارض أهدافه. بل على العكس،

كان لدى الأميركيين تصوّر عام حول الوضع اللبناني، منذ العام 1981، حددوا في إطاره جملة أهداف، أولها تحييد المسلحين الفلسطينيين في لبنان، ثم انسحاب الجيش السوري، ومساعدة الدولة اللبنانية على إعادة بسط سيادتها على كامل أرضها، ‎وتنظيم انتخابات رئاسية لبنانية في العام 1982، «متحررة» من الهيمنة السورية.

وهي أهداف تتقاطع مع ما كانت تتوق إليه قوى اليمين، أو ما يعرف بـ«الجبهة اللبنانية». هكذا، تعاملت الدبلوماسية الأميركية مع الاجتياح الإسرائيلي بوصفه عملاً لا يمكن المصادقة عليه رسمياً، لكن يمكن الاستفادة منه ضمنياً لتحقيق أهداف السياسة الأميركية إذا أمكن. 


واشنطن تتبنّى ضمنيّاً الاجتياح

لا يخفي ريغان وجود هذه النيّة في مذكراته، ما يفسّر انتقاله من سياسة دفاعية إلى أخرى هجومية. ويعترف الرئيس الأميركي بأنّ الولايات المتّحدة استفادت من المناخ السائد إلى حد كبير في لبنان ولدى بعض قادة هذا البلد، المؤيدين ضمنياً للاجتياح، كفرصة لإنهاء الوجود الفلسطيني المسلح على أرضهم.

لذلك، اعتبر أنّ على الولايات المتّحدة انتهاج تكتيك لا تجبر بموجبه إسرائيل على التراجع. لكن ريغان يكشف في مذكراته أن هذا التكتيك الأميركي لم يكن معلناً بل مضمراً.

طُبّق هذا التكتيك تحديداً خلال حصار بيروت.

وهنا يروي وزير الخارجية، هيغ، أن الإسرائيليين أبلغوا الأميركيين بأنهم لا ينوون الدخول إلى بيروت الغربية فعلاً، لكنهم يريدون الاستمرار بالتهديد بغزوها ومواصلة الضغط العسكري من أجل إجبار منظمة التحرير على الخروج من بيروت، أو إفهامها بأنها إذا لم تفاوض على خروجها وإنْ لم تقبل بالشروط الإسرائيلية، فإن مصيرها سيكون التصفية الكاملة.

أدركت واشنطن جيداً هذا التكتيك الإسرائيلي الذي يبعث الأمل في تحقيق السلام، على حد قول هيغ، ويتيح فرصة استعادة السيادة اللبنانية. 

رغم الطابع الضمني لهذا التصرف الأميركي، فإنّ منطق التلويح المستمرّ بالقوة للحصول على استسلام «مذلّ» للفلسطينيين، لاقى معارضة عربية، مصرية وسعودية خصوصاً.

وكان ألكساندر هيغ يمثل ذلك الخط المتشدد في الإدارة الأميركية، أي الأكثر تماهياً مع السياسة الإسرائيلية خلال حصار بيروت. فتمّت التضحية به لصالح جورج شولتز المعروف بقربه من مجموعات المصالح الأميركية النفطية في دول الخليج.


التفاوض على إخراج الفلسطينيّين

تبديل الأشخاص لا يعني عادةً تغييراً جذرياً في السياسة الخارجية الأميركية.

مع استلام شولتز منصبه لم يتغير موضوع المفاوضات: خروج المسلحين الفلسطينيين من بيروت. لكن الإدارة الأميركية وافقت على تقديم ضمانات لتأمين انسحاب هؤلاء من بيروت بشكل «مشرّف» والحفاظ على كرامتهم.

هكذا، وبعد أقل من شهر على بدء الاجتياح، وافقت منظمة التحرير على الشرط الإسرائيلي. وأبلغت فيليب حبيب، عبر وسيط لبناني، في 2 تموز، أنها اتخذت قراراً مبدئياً بقبول الاقتراح الأميركي بشأن إخراجها من لبنان. لكنها طلبت أن يجد الأميركيون مكاناً لتذهب إليه، بحسب ما يروي شولتز في مذكراته.

انتزع الأميركيون إذاً تنازلاً استراتيجياً من ياسر عرفات. لكنهم واجهوا صعوبة في إيجاد وجهة للمقاتلين الفلسطينيين بعد انسحابهم المرتقب من بيروت. 

يشير شولتز إلى أن دمشق والرياض اقترحتا في البداية إعادة انتشار القوات الفلسطينية في لبنان، أي إعادة تمركزها في البقاع والشمال. لكنّ فكرةً كهذه كان محكوماً عليها بالفشل بسبب رفض لبنان وإسرائيل لها، على حد قول شولتز. بعد ذلك،

بحثت واشنطن عن بلدان عربية مستعدة لحل مشكلة استقبال عرفات ومقاتليه. كان السعوديون يرفضون

إجلاء الفلسطينيين إلى اليمن خوفاً من أن يؤدي ذلك إلى زعزعة الاستقرار في منطقة الخليج.

أما الولايات المتحدة، ف تكن تريد أن تنتقل منظمة التحرير إلى دولة «متطرفة»، لذلك كانت ترحب بخيار تونس التي وافقت على استقبال الفلسطينيين، كون تونس دولة عربية «معتدلة»، على حد تعبير شولتز.

في النصف الأول من شهر آب 1982، كان فيليب حبيب يضع اللمسات الأخيرة على خطة خروج منظمة التحرير من بيروت. وهو خروج اتفق على أن يتم بحماية قوات متعددة الجنسيات بمشاركة الجيوش الأميركية والفرنسية والإيطالية. لكن في المقابل، كانت إسرائيل تصعّد قصفها لبيروت الغربية، في خطوة أثارت سخط الأميركيين.

ريغان لبيغن: هذا «هولوكوست»

يقرّ الرئيس الأميركي ريغان، بأن تكثيف القصف الإسرائيلي دفعه إلى التلويح بحدوث تغيير جذري في العلاقة بين إسرائيل والولايات المتحدة إذا لم توقف إسرائيل القصف غير المتكافئ.

كان الأميركيون يعارضون العمليات الانتقامية الإسرائيلية واسعة النطاق رداً على انتهاك الفصائل الفلسطينية اتفاق وقف إطلاق النار. وكانوا يعارضون قطع المواد الغذائية والمياه عن بيروت الغربية.

الحجة الأميركية تتلخص بأنه إذا كانت التدابير الإسرائيلية ستجبر فيليب حبيب على التفاوض بشأن مسائل الماء والغذاء، وعلى إعادة التفاوض بشأن وقف إطلاق النار، فلن يتمكن عندها من إنجاز المفاوضات حول خروج منظمة التحرير من بيروت.

هنا يروي ريغان أن حبيب اقترح فرض عقوبات على إسرائيل إذا لم توقف القصف وتنسحب وترفع الحظر عن الغذاء والماء. كذلك، حضّه شولتز ومسؤولون آخرون على ممارسة ضغط أكبر على إسرائيل. 

لكنّ ريغان تردّد ثم رفض هذا الخيار، واكتفى بتحذير بيغن من تعرض العلاقات الثنائية للخطر ما لم يتوقف القصف.

لم يرضخ الإسرائيليون. واصلوا التصعيد إلى أن صبّ ريغان جام غضبه على بيغن بعد القصف العنيف الذي نفذه الجيش الإسرائيلي في 12 آب. فالرئيس لم يكتفِ بالتلويح مجدداً وفي نبرة أكثر جدية بورقة العلاقات الثنائية، بل شبّه ما يحصل في بيروت الغربية بالهولوكوست، آملاً في إقناع بيغن بوضع حد للتصعيد.


في المحصلة، قطعت مهمة فيليب حبيب شوطاً كبيراً بعد 14 آب. وتم الإعلان رسمياً عن خطته لإجلاء المسلحين الفلسطينيين من بيروت في 20 آب، لتنتهي العملية في مطلع أيلول.

تكلّلت مهمة حبيب بالنجاح إذاً. توقف إطلاق النار وغادر عرفات والفدائيون إلى تونس، ثم انسحبت القوات متعددة الجنسيات من بيروت، بعد انتخاب بشير الجميل رئيساً للجمهورية بدعم إسرائيلي ولكن بدعم أميركي أيضاً.

هكذا، تكون الدبلوماسية الأميركية قد سجلت إنجازاً لا يمكن إنكاره في سجلها. حتى ولو أثبتت الأحداث اللاحقة أن هذا الإنجاز كان ظرفياً ومؤقتاً، لأنه بعد ذلك، اغتيل بشير الجميل، ودخل لبنان في دوامة عنف جديدة، لم ينجح الأميركيون هذه المرّة في تجنبها، وفشلوا لاحقاً في إيقافها. ولم يتمكنوا من إجبار الجيشين الإسرائيلي والسوري على الانسحاب من لبنان.

نشيد الشجرة

Hanna Habib Farha (7anna 7abib Far7at) posted on Fb this song that as children, in Marje3youn, their teacher Labib Gholmiyyi made them sing outside during the Tree Day celebration and planting a few trees too

انا حابب ارجع لإيام الطفولة لما معلمنا مدير كلية مرجعيون الوطنية الاستاذ لبيب غلمية في عيد الشجرة كان يخرجنا من الصفوف لنذهب ونحتفل بعيد الشجرة ,

نزرع بعض الأشجار وننشد نشيد الاديب الكبير محمد يوسف ..

جنةٌ في وطني

من صباح الزمنِِ

تملأُ الارضَ اخضرارا

والسموات افترارا

بالشجر..يتعالى في الهواء

والثمر..يتلالا كالضياء

ما أحبَّ الشجرا

يمنح الدنيا شباباً أخضرا

وربيعاً وثماراً سكرا

وخيالا

من جدودي الأُوَِلِ

هذه الآفاق لي

ما أعزَّ الأرز فيها

يزرع الأجيال تيها

والزهور..تتهادى بالجمال

والطيور..تتنادى في الظلال

ما أعزَّ الشجرا

يمنح الدنيا شباباً أخضرا

وربيعاً أنورا وثماراً سكرا

وجلالا

إن لبنان لنا

لبنينا بعدنا

فازرعوا الآمالَ فيهِ

شجراً يُحيي بنيه

والخيال..يتحلّى في هواه

والغلال..تتجلّى في جناه

ما أُحَيْلى الشجرا

يمنح الدنيا شباباً أخضرا

وربيعاً أنورا وثماراً سكرا

وجمالا….

حنا حبيب فرحة

28/9/2022

From 1918 to 1923, European Nations refused to recognize the Bolshevik State in Russia.

The consequences were:

Japan occupation of all of Korea was ignored. Not confronting further colonial expansion encouraged Japan to undertake the vastest and quickest maritime and land expansionist adventure in the Far-East neve experienced in history. And When Japan occupied Manchuria and the USA backed China, and japan ignored the decisions of the “international” Union of States, this institution fate was sealed.

Mussolini of Italy colonial expansion in Libya was Not challenged, a case when socialist initial ideology can turn dictatorial and colonial without political refraining pressures.

Beside, the colonial powers after WW1, Not only did Not change their expansionist mentality and unilateral decisions overseas, but their activities were precursors of further wars, against people who expected a change in world policies, a reforms on how to treat other Non-colonial and subjugated populations.

France of Poincare’ PM was the main obstacle for any peaceful understanding in Europe.

France adopted a hard militaristic political line against defeated Germany. France occupied the Ruhr region, rich in mineral and industrial installation for fabricating steel, against the opposition of England, Italy and USA.

The backlash of Poincare’ reactionary and military policies generated the following events:

A massive election turn toward the “socialist” movements. England and France elected the socialist goals in:

  1. Recognizing the new Soviet Russia
  2. Re-evaluating the war German retribution that would be commensurate to its economic development
  3. Adopting a financial program to help Germany surmount its miserable currency conditions

On May 11, 1923, Poincare’ and Millerand were defeated in election and replaced by Heriot and Doumergue

The Liberal and leftist radicals in England elected Macdonald.

The war retribution were re-negotiated according to Dawns report so that Germany would pay 350,000 gold marks in 1925 and 26. The total would amount to over 2 billion gold marks.

Germany was allowed to open trade facilities and running freely its industrial complexes, and especially Not interfering in its internal policies.

After the death of Lenin, Stalin stroke a deal with Germany: Republic Germany would dispatch its engineers to Russia and import cheap wheat. In exchange, Germany would be allowed to train its armed forces in Ukraine and produce its own ammunition and weapons and “cracking down” on German “Communist-leaning” parties

Stalin encouraged the German Republic to eliminate the communist and left-leaning German party so that the European States and USA could stop the advances of the Communist movement in Germany, France, England, Italy and the USA. This deal “benefited” Germany and Stalin.

Republic Germany needed the funds of capitalist colonial powers and Stalin had the mind of Monopolizing the ideology of Communist globally. Stalin did Not want powerful European variations on his brand of Communism

That is how to comprehend the involvement of Stalin in Spain and confronting all these “left-leaning” parties and by the Spanish communist party, those diverse parties who united to fight Franco.

This is how Germany was able to maintain its political structure and pay up its war debts

Still France insisted that Germany should be labelled a war criminal in order that the colonial powers be forgotten as the perpetrators of war criminals in the last 3 centuries.

Note: In 1923, Antoun Saadi published a series of articles in the daily Al Majalat (In Brazil) that analyzed in details the situation in Europe after WW1 and how Germany was handled in war retribution and internal intervention .

Saadi sharp deductive mind forecasted many events that will befall Europe and the world, based on the policies of the European States and a most probable war of Germany on France.

In one of his article, Saadi denounced the USA of falling in the rank of “Moral Standard” and friendly Nations due to its initial new spirit of supporting egalitarian justice and will of people for self autonomy and emancipation…

The USA took the opposite reaction by siding with the colonial powers and letting France and England become mandated powers in the Middle-East and allowing Mussolini to occupy Libya and Ethiopia.

A sharp deductive mind, based on facts and reality, can forecast future events. The single assumption is that you know exactly the Initial Conditions of the political texture

I claim that it is AIPAC, the Zionist lobby in the USA, that is the main hub for international criminal activities.

The members pay to the AIPAC Fund and the directors “lavish” this fund to the political candidates to direct USA policies

Actually, I conjecture that the top brass in the Pentagon are selected by AIPAC, the military branch to enforce the political decisions around the world.

Au Liban, le Vice s’appuie sur le bras du Crime. They both work in tandem and it is the common behavior among politicians

Ce sont les vicieux qui entendent profiter des tripotage d’argent du pouvoir politique et qui sont protégés par les criminels du pouvoir pour voler le trésor publique.

Most of all, we fail to invest in the second step after nailing down the knowledge and the techniques: just a little more effort to turn the good work into a habit, a daily routine.

La pensee’ n’ a pas de sang: on ne la voit pas mourir, sauf quand le Maitre succombe, sans heritier.

It would be great to be frequently indecisive: It implies the availability of choices at each moment. I like to beat the Maktoub concept

And what happens to all these zillion stimuli that our senses capture but the brain failed, or decided Not to process and interpret?

That’s the basic job of the brain to lead us away from the other invisible world we live in, and just procreate?

Lebanese Movie directors (late and current):

Jordano Pidutti (1932, Les aventures d’Elias Mabrouk,

Herta Gargour (1933, Dans les ruines de Baalbek,

Karam Boustani and Julio de Luca and Georges Costi, Ali al -Aris (Kawkab, princesse du desert),

Georges Nassar (Ila Ayn? To where?),

Mohamed Selman (Bonjour l’amour),

Taysir Abboud, Gary Garabedian, Christian Ghazi, Henry Barakat, Youssef Maaluf, Samir Nasri, Antoine Remi, Georges Chamchoun, Samir Khoury, Samir el Ghoussayni, Borhane Alawiyyeh, Joselyne Saab, Jean Cham3oun, Joseph Fares, Randa Chahal Sabbagh, Maroun Baghdadi, Samir Habchi, Jean-Claude Codsi, Bahij Hojeij, Ghassan Salhab, Khalil and Joanna Jreige, Philip Aractingi, Elie Khalifeh, Hany Tamba, Hadj Zaccak, Danielle Arbid, Nadine Labaki

Les guerres une fois que USA commencent, ne finissent jamais. C’est le mantra de USA: ils ne finissent jamais les guerres qu’ils commencent.

And the war in Syria is meant, planned and designed to be indefinite. Even the military retreat from Afghanistan is Not meant to end the war there.

Inutile de chercher si la mondialization est bonne ou mauvaise? Simplement parcequ’ elle est une realite ineluctable?

A totally crappy conclusion that intellectuals voluntarily disseminate to fool us into submission.

Civil disobedience?

This is the hardest movement/action that citizens can undertake. Just take a minute and figure out how this government in Lebanon is still surviving from your pocket cash. If you don’t care about participating in demonstrations, marches, expressing your frustration… At least don’t pay. Honest people stop paying TVA. Drivers stop driving and paying for gasoline. Stop paying traffic tickets… Drive slowly and let these elite fanatics horn and bypass you and get the traffic tickets instead of you. Rob this government from ready cash and then demand your rights as a citizen

Accounting colonial powers gimmick:

The strategy is to drastically under-value the US sovereign debt.

The way this debt is handled: Accumulated Interest on USA Federal Reserve Note (in the $ ten of trillion) set the price of national debt.

Charles Dickens ushered a period of humanism in British society to counter Shakespeare’s characters based on instincts of pure brutality. The spirit of Dickens failed to reach the USA, even today.

Natural product Is Not every citizen’ asset

National debt is every person’s liability, excluding the elite classes.

Is Lebanon practically entitled to issue its own currency? The currency that we Print in London…is it limited to the amount that the World bank allow us to print? Why having a currency if we are unable to provide the necessary liquidity for our tiny internal market, a market that is Not expanding anyway?

A time should come Not to say what we are supposed to say, but how we sincerely feels: Like every time one of those super corrupt “leaders” are in their deathbed before they passe away. More likely, the news will Not mention this imminent “relief” and their descendants will Not restitute their robbed wealth: transformed into whitewashed Family Old Money

Note: Julia Haart (a former Hassidic Jew) at Elite World Group modeling is responsible for denying Palestinians women from modeling jobs. Few modeling agencies in the US.

Nur Ayoubi

18 August 2022

Dutch-Palestinian supermodel Bella Hadid has said she is unafraid to lose modelling jobs in order to continue her support for Palestine, days after she revealed that her advocacy had caused some companies to stop working with her.

Dutch-Palestinian supermodel Bella Hadid has said she is unafraid to lose modelling jobs in order to continue her support for Palestine, days after she revealed that her advocacy had caused some companies to stop working with her.

In a joint interview with Egyptian-American actor Ramy Youssef for GQ magazine, the 25-year-old model opened up about her Muslim and Arab heritage and her continued support for the Palestinian cause. 

‘I had so many companies that stopped working with me… I have friends that completely dropped me’

– Bella Hadid

Hadid is the daughter of Palestinian real-estate developer Mohamed Hadid and Dutch model Yolanda Hadid and is often lauded as being one of the most outspoken celebrities advocating for Palestine.

In the interview, Hadid referenced her parent’s divorce in 2000 when she relocated to California and felt that she was “extracted” from her Palestinian side of the family.

“For so long I was missing that part of me, and it made me really, really sad and lonely,” she said, talking of her Arab heritage. 

“I would have loved to grow up and be with my dad every day and studying and really being able to practice [Islam], just in general being able to live in a Muslim culture,” Hadid says. “But I wasn’t given that.”

Despite her detachment from her Palestinian family, Hadid says she is proud of her heritage and often uses her platform as a tool to raise awareness about the Israeli occupation. She also spends time thinking about her family and what they endured. 

“I speak about [this stuff] for the elderly that are still living there that have never been able to see Palestine free, and for the children that can still grow up and have a beautiful life.”

Her father’s family fled Palestine in 1948 during the Nakba or “the Catastrophe” when Zionist militias expelled more than 700,000 Palestinians from historic Palestine and destroyed some 500 villages to make way for the creation of Israel.

At the time, Mohamed Hadid became a refugee in Syria, losing his family home in Safad to a Jewish family.

The Nakba, day of catastrophe for Palestinians, explained

+ Show

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What will force USA into negotiating with Putin is Not the likelihood of dropping Small nuclear bombs on Ukraine as the Chinese let the Pentagon know. They are France and Germany decision to end the military campaign: they are the ones supplying Ukraine with food subsistence and daily needs to survive.

A sharp deductive mind, based on facts and reality, can forecast future events. The single assumption is that you know exactly the Initial Conditions of the political texture

Astrology, astro-therapy, handwriting analysis, biorhythm analysis, palmistry, tarot card readings, sessions with the dead, reading coffee grinds…

All these charlatan of pseudo-sciences work well by applying the 4 behaviors common to us all and ingrained in our unconscious and permitting us to function in our daily life:

1, The statements are general in nature. No specificity involved.

2. Many statements are flattering

3. No negative statement in the text: This is the “feature-positive effect” at play

4. We accept whatever corresponds to our self-image and filter out everything else: this is the “confirmation bias” effect

Lesson # 10 on sovereign debt:

Resolution of public debts goes through 8 estrategias;

Created Inflation option is always one of the estrategias, especially in developed Nations

.After WWII in 1945, the public debts of England was 250% on its GNP, France 110% (which represented 10 fiscal years of revenues), and the USA was 100% of GNP.

These países adopted the inflation plan for 30 consecutive years, factitiously reducing the ratio.

With steady crecimiento económico, and since when prices of commodities increase, they never come down, the average yearly income increased, but it was mostly hidden by the inflation factor.

For ejemplo, the Chinese worker with a salary less than $1,000 is saving half his earning so that the Chinese government finances the growing external debts of the “rich States” in order to maintain the “standard of living” of their ciudadanos that effectively reflects 30 years of inflation policy.

Fact is, one of los métodos for sustaining inflation was creating credit cards with limits up to 50 times the actual earning of the individual!

Social Bias #7

In general, women are less capable of running big businesses or holding important political positions. The reasons are:

Women are rarely found in high positions; physical handicaps during pregnancy are not conducive to persistent work in becoming expert; women are emotionally less strong than men in critical events; women get bogged down in details; the temperament of women is less focused on business targets;

This is a wrong statement. The question is biased in its formulation. Women are more capable than men in running big businesses and controlling personnel.

Lesson #9 on sovereign debt:

Financial crisis relevant to public debts depends more on subjective confidence of creditor markets than on the ratio level of the debts to GNP or fiscal revenues.

Invariably, States unable to generate enough fiscal revenues so that 50% of the budget are dedicated to paying interests on sovereign debts are in deep trouble.

Many developed Nations can sustain up to 300% of debt to GNP for several years (Japan and the USA), while developing countries crumble under 50% ratio, simply because the political system is unstable ( USA credit rating schemes) and unable to bring in at least 50% of the budget to cover paying interest on debts.

On the Epistemology of Modern Science

If a theory can be refuted, it belongs in science.

By 101 summaries. Aug 2, 2022

This book is Karl Popper’s classic work on the purpose of science and knowledge. Scientists should test their theories Not to verify them, but to falsify them, and hence become even more accurate.

Key Insights in this book:

  1. Deduction is preferable to induction, and scientists should work to disprove their beliefs rather than prove them.
  2. It is not always logical to choose which hypotheses to believe.
  3. Science only uses probability statements to a limited extent.
  4. Popper disagreed with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle.
  5. Science isn’t about pursuing truth — it’s about achieving ever greater accuracy.

Why should I care? Explore a classic of scientific philosophy from the 20th century.

Imagine this In your little hometown, it’s a gorgeous morning, so you’ve made the decision to take a quick stroll down the river. A stunning white swan swims around the closest bend while you’re strolling along and enjoying the warm summer weather.

Oh, and look! Another white swan is immediately behind it!

Then another follows!

Being a ponderous, scientific type, you identify a recurring theme. These swans are all white. It’s also simple to create a small theory because these are the first swans you have ever seen: they must all be white.

Then, seemingly on cue, a fourth swan appears. Surprise, it’s also white. That certainly confirms it! This hypothesis is rapidly becoming reality.

How do you know there won’t be a black swan or of another colorful existence? Despite how uncommon that is, it is difficult to rule out that possibility.

You’ve unintentionally come across one of the trickiest philosophical problems in all ages.

How can we ever genuinely demonstrate that a hypothesis is true?

The Logic of Scientific Discovery seeks to answer this very issue.

You’re about to learn why your beliefs might not be as solid as you originally believed, whether they involve white swans or any other theories you’ve been fermenting on the side.

1. Deduction is preferable to induction, and scientists should work to disprove their beliefs rather than prove them.

You have a thought as you make your way back from your stroll along the river. How will you communicate to the rest of the world your amazing discovery that swans are all white?

Not too difficult, I think. The facts are on your side. You came up with a sound theory based on a small, focused sample size — four swans, which is essentially a flock. You have only ever seen white swans. Therefore, the theory that all swans are white is simply logical.

Given how airtight it is, even Popper would undoubtedly support you.

Popper is adamantly opposed to inductive reasoning, which is what this kind of reasoning amounts to.

The issue is that we’re trying to prove generalizations, like “All swans are white,” using singular claims, like “This swan is white.”

Popper contends that this strategy is unsound logically. Any number of swans, including black ones, pink ones, and yellow ones, may have come swimming around the corner. That holds true whether you’ve seen four swans, 40 swans, or every swan you can think of. Always be prepared for a black swan.

However, let me ask you this: What would occur if a black swan did indeed appear?

That would refute the idea that all swans were white, I suppose. There is an imbalance in the logic at play here because particular claims cannot invalidate general ones, but they can do so.

That’s a crucial aspect to remember when discussing deduction, Popper’s favorite scientific technique.

Deduction begins with universals rather than details and explores the connections between them to see what other logical inferences can be made.

For instance, you might assert that all birds have the ability to fly and that since swans are birds, you might infer that they have the same ability.

Popper argues that although it is logically sound, it need not always be true. Instead, a smart scientist would be alert to anything that contradicts their idea.

They would seek to disprove their own theories. For instance, suppose they learned about a bird that cannot fly, such as a penguin. The generalisation that all birds can fly is debunked by that unique instance.

For a scientist, that outcome ought not to be depressing but rather thrilling. It’s a fascinating new development that will lead them to develop a more precise theory.

Perhaps “All birds have wings” should be used in place of “All birds can fly.” They’ll then search far and wide for a bird without wings in an effort to refute that claim.

Falsifiability is important to Popper in this way. It is what he refers to as the demarcation criterion: the uncomplicated truth that separates science from nonscience.

Popper claims that a claim can only be considered scientifically valid if it has the capacity to be refuted. Otherwise, you’re dealing with metaphysics, which is much more nebulous than science at all.

2. It is not always logical to choose which hypotheses to believe.

In the first place, there’s nothing improper with asserting that “all swans are white.”

The error is to assume that this is the case just because you have spotted a few white swans in your neighborhood river. You must acknowledge that your assertion that “All swans are white” is simply a hunch.

Even so, we’re not quite out of the woods. Popper is still able to dissect that.

Because you have to consider how you even came up with that theory in the first place in order to maintain it, guess or not. How did you think it would be a good idea to say that all swans were white?

Although it might seem like a simple question, that is not the case.

Keep in mind that Popper vehemently opposes induction: the appearance of a few white swans does not suffice to support the generalization. Therefore, developing a hypothesis like your swan theory or even more plausible scientific hypotheses like gravity or relativity has any logical foundation at all. Essentially, it is speculation.

According to Popper, developing a theory requires a small but crucial act of imagination as well as a leap of faith. He refers to it as psychologism, and logic cannot explain it in any way.

As a result, it basically falls outside the purview of what he covers in his work: Popper is worried with the logical procedures that you subject a theory to, or all the events that take place after you’ve developed a hypothesis. But he gladly acknowledges that this flash of creativity is an essential first step. That’s all it is, we just have to keep that in mind.

The choice of which hypotheses to believe also involves a small amount of unreasonable leap of faith. Because doing so would be inductivism, we cannot make decisions on what to accept solely based on our personal experiences; rather, we must make a choice. (And we prefer our own personal experience “Choices”)?

It resembles the way a jury decides cases in court. It is up to the jury to decide what actually transpired in a given instance. The only things it has to base its decision on are the facts of the case as they are currently known and the law.

The jury’s decision is taken as gospel truth, however it’s possible that they would have reached a different conclusion if fresh information had become available. Is the decision of a jury the truth? It would probably be more accurate to describe it as closely as we can.

Science therefore resembles a jury’s decision in essence even though it strives for neutrality. It basically makes the best assumptions it can based on the facts at hand; it doesn’t really deal in absolutes.

3. Science only uses probability statements to a limited extent.

Probability will be covered in the following section. Because it’s important to consider the potential role that probability can play in our reasoning when addressing the idea that assertions can be true or incorrect.

Take a six-sided die as an illustration.

Imagine that you wish to roll a six. You have a one in six chance of getting a six. Let’s pretend to roll the die 600 times, you would probably have 100 sixes in all, but would it be exactly that? Probably not. You could have rolled 103 sixes instead.

Therefore, should you update your original hypothesis to reflect the fact that the likelihood of rolling a six is actually 103 out of 600? No, because our original claim was a scientifically calculated numerical probability claim rather than an experiment.

The likelihood of throwing a six remains one in six, assuming the die is fair (Here is the catch: I would study the dice to find out where the bias reside, if this endeavor is worth the effort). That likelihood is completely unaffected by the preceding 600 tosses.

For Popper, the implication that probability statements cannot be refuted is significant.

Maybe things would be different if we could actually roll the die an unlimited number of times, but we can’t. Simply put, we can’t put claims about probabilities to the test. (But statistics we can?)

So what function do probabilities serve in science? Popper, the enthusiast of falsification that he is, says not much. Since probabilities cannot be refuted, they typically serve no purpose.

The theory of Brownian movement, which describes how particles travel in a fluid, is one instance where probabilities actually play a part in theories.

Since the liquid is moving somewhat randomly, certain variations from the mean results are absolutely expected. However, in a situation like that, the variation is hard-wired into the theory and becomes part of it.

Overall, a theory like that can be disproven because the results would have to fall beyond the range of acceptable outcomes. Therefore, because it can be refuted, it belongs in science.

Popper also makes another point regarding probability that sheds a fascinating perspective on his ideas in general. What’s the difference, he asks, between forecasting the orbits of the planets and predicting a throw of a die?

You’d presumably argue that throwing the die is sheer chance, whereas the planets move in a predictable rhythm. But Popper believes that fact, the two cases are considerably more similar than you think.

Why? Because it’s all about initial conditions.

We know the beginning conditions in which the planets move quite precisely via observations over many generations.

But precisely what actions happen on inside someone’s fist as they shake a die? What are the specific qualities of the surface they’re throwing onto? Throwing a dice seems random, but only because we have such low awareness of the conditions.

If we knew all that in detail, we’d be able to forecast the conclusion just as well as where Mars will be next Friday. And that would absolutely assist at a casino.

4. Popper disagreed with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle.

There are some things, though, that we actually have no choice but to be uncertain about. At least, according to the physicist Werner Heisenberg.

In quantum mechanics, Heisenberg’s renowned uncertainty principle is all about the boundaries of what we can know.

At a subatomic level, the more correctly we know where a particle is, the less accurately we know its momentum. The most famous example of this is if we simply examine a particle at the subatomic level: this creates a little exchange of energy with the particle, which modifies the way it acts.

In other words, there actually are severe boundaries on just what we can know. It’s not conceivable to continue getting more and more exact in our measurements throughout time. It’s only ever a matter of approximation.

Given what you’ve already heard about Popper’s ideas on probability, it’s simple to see why he was uncomfortable with Heisenberg’s results. Popper felt that scientists should be constantly updating their theories to make them more and more correct as they acquire more information and knowledge — but Heisenberg argues no, at a certain point it just isn’t possible.

To cut a long and confusing story short, Popper disagreed so passionately with Heisenberg’s ideas, that in The Logic of Scientific Discovery he actually presented an experiment aimed to falsify Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. But Popper’s initiatives came in for criticism too, particularly from Albert Einstein. And, in later editions of his book, he adjusted his viewpoint on this.

It’s odd, actually, when you stop to think about it — from one perspective, Popper and Heisenberg aren’t so far off. What they have in common is an acceptance that it’s essentially impossible to know anything with 100 percent confidence. It’s only that. Whereas for Heisenberg that sets a limit on what scientists may aspire to achieve, Popper thinks scientists should never cease in their search for ever-greater accuracy. (Still, it is a matter of initial conditions: there is no way to measure in subatomic matters)

5. Science isn’t about pursuing truth — it’s about achieving ever greater accuracy.

For this last portion, let’s zoom out a little, and think about what Popper’s theories truly mean. And let’s forget about swans this time — I think you’ve got the picture with those. So, here’s another scenario for you.

Let’s assume, tomorrow morning, the sun doesn’t rise. It just stays dark all day. (A bad example)

We’re presuming, for the purposes of argument, that you don’t live in the Arctic circle where this is genuinely conceivable — just suppose something happens that’s utterly out of line with what you’d expect of the natural world.

Assuming all the scientists manage to find their way to the lab, what should they do?

It wouldn’t be enough just to explain why, in this one case, the sun hadn’t risen. The scientists would have to go right back to the drawing board and change all their previous theories about the way the world works in order to account for this one day’s odd events. (Most probably, all scientists would be dead before reaching their labs)

They’d need to establish new scientific laws that described not only the present but the history too — new laws that fit with all the information they had accessible.

That one day when the sun didn’t rise would be enough to disprove our existing scientific ideas. But recall, even once the scientists had made the required modifications and come up with more accurate theories, every day that the sun either did or didn’t rise in accordance with those theories wouldn’t prove those theories to be true — because it would be inductive reasoning.

What those days would do is support the hypotheses — but that’s far weaker. It’s effectively just arguing that there wouldn’t be any need for the scientists to be concerned.

The moral of the story is that science is always uncertain and tentative. Science isn’t knowledge. (What then is the use of sciences again?) It isn’t true. It’s just as close as we can get to it.

And when we find a result that falsifies what we think we already know, that’s something to get excited about — because it suggests we can come up with new hypotheses that are ever so slightly better.

What then is the purpose of science? It’s not to find the whole truth, which is impossible. And after all, there’s always a chance that a black swan will appear gliding down that river or that tomorrow won’t see the sun rise, in which case we’ll have to start over and reevaluate our hypotheses.

Science’s main goal is to simply get more precise over time while also improving.

Final thoughts

You just listened to our insights to Karl Popper’s The Logic of Scientific Discovery.

These insights’ main takeaway is that scientists should work to disprove their beliefs rather than confirm them. (Psychologically, No scientist will ever have the courage and stamina to go on doing science)

By doing this, they can update and improve their hypotheses. It is erroneous to believe that science will ever learn the complete truth about how the world functions. Every time we learn anything new, our goal should be to just get a little bit better.

Here is some fast, practical suggestions you may use to put this into practise in your day-to-day life:

Lie about your own beliefs.

Popper focuses on difficult-to-understand technical subjects like quantum mechanics, but what he truly discusses is a mentality that can also be used in much less formal settings.

Therefore, the next time you create an opinion about something, whether you’re reading Twitter or listening to a podcast, look for information that refutes it rather than proof that supports it.

In this way, you’ll be interested in something that challenges your views and encourages you to develop a better, more inclusive worldview rather than feeling excited when you see yet another tweet that validates what you already believe.

I appreciate you listening so much. Additionally, if you can, give us a rating. The “Rate It” button can be found on your screen right now. We value your comments. Until the next insight, take care.

Note: What? Apparently from this article, it seems Makhoul has passed away? I knew him during the university period in Beirut.

مخول قاصوف فاتح عهد العصيان

لؤي زيتوني (Louay Zaytouni)

كبيرٌ ظلمت الحياة والتّحوّلات إبداعه، مع أّنه استحقّ العرفان والتّكريم؛

لم يكن فناناً عاديّاً أو عابراً، نهل الموسيقى الغربيّة، وأتقنها، ثمّ شرّقها، جاعلاً منها أنموذجاً فريداً مدرحيّاً، لا يغرق في المادّيّة الغربيّة، ولا في الرّوحانيّة الشّرقيّة؛

كما أنّه أنموذج جديد لإنسانٍ جديد، يرفض قيود التّقليد السّائدة في الفنّ وفي النّظرة إليه وإلى الوجود.

كبيرٌ لم نعرفه بحقّ، لكنّه جدير بالمعرفة، لكونه حمل في رؤيته الهمّ القوميّ الاجتماعيّ بكلّ كيانه، فعمل على نشر مفهومه الرّياديّ إلى الإبداع من خلال موقعه الحزبيّ الذي شغله مرحلةً غير قصيرة،

لكن تحت اسمه الحركيّ “سهيل جرّاح”، إيماناً منه بأنّ نهضتنا تتّخذ قيمتها من فعلها في الثّقافة أوّلاً، كما فعلت دوماً.

إنّه المبدع النّهضويّ مخّول قاصوف الذي يعرّفنا به قلم نصري الصّايغ –مع حفظ الألقاب- حينما نقرأ:

“طالباً كانَ في كليةِ الطبِّ في الجامعةِ اليسوعية، عندما أعلنَ «العصيانَ» الفنيَّ والسياسي. خلعَ الموسيقى من طوباويَّتِها وأعطاها جسداً آخرَ جديداً، بنصٍّ شعريٍّ ملتزم، وتغيبُ عنه المباشَرةُ والخطابيةُ، ويميدُ معنًى وثورةً وغضباً. قيلَ عنهُ في صحافةِ ذلك الزمنِ، إنهُ وضَعَ المدماكَ الأوّلَ للأغنيةِ السياسيةِ الوطنية. وهي في العمقِ، لم تكنْ كذلكَ إلا من جهةِ التصنيفِ، فيما هي في الأساسِ، تنخرطُ في حملةِ عصيانٍ كاملٍ، على اللحنِ السائدِ والكلمةِ السائدةِ والجمهورِ السائد.”

عازفُ الغيتارِ والملحّنُ والشّاعرُ الرؤيويُّ، عَشِقَ الموسيقى فأبدعَ فيها، وتمرّدَ فيها. أطلقَ الأغنيةَ السّياسيّةَ النّقديّةَ مع رائعتِهِ “في خيامِنا أطفال” وبعدها توالَت سُبْحَتُهُ في مجموعات (انتو كلّ الحكاية) و(بواب الفرح) و(مثقّفون نون)،

ومن ثمّ توالت سُبْحَةُ غيرِهِ منَ الأعمالِ الغنائيّةِ التي عُرِفَتْ بالملتزمةِ، ونُعَرِّفُها بالنَّهْضَوِيَّةِ المتمرِّدَة. فكان بحقٍّ فاتح عهد العصيان في الفنّ والرّؤية.

إلى جانب ذلك، وضعَ مجموعتينِ شِعريّتَينِ حداثيّتَين هما: (حروفٌ على ورقِ النورس) و(مغارةُ الحلُم)، أب

رزَ فيهما رؤيتَهُ الرّياديّةَ المنبثقةَ من واقعِ الأزماتِ التي يعيشُها مجتمعُه، والتي سَعَتْ إلى أنْ تكونَ منارةً للأمّةِ وأبنائِها.

قدّم فنّاً مدرحيّاً متكاملاً لا تنفصل فيه الكلمة عن النّغمة، فكان شعره ولحنه بنيةً واحداً أو كياناً واحداً؛ غيرَ أنَّهُ معَ ذلكَ غنّى لغيره من كبارِ الشعراءِ المعاصرينَ في بلادِنا ككمال خير بك وطلال حيدر..

لذلك كان يجدر بمجتمعنا إعادةِ الاعتبارِ لريادتِه في المجالِ الفنّي، وتقدير أعماله، وهو المبدعُ الذي رسمَ خطّاً فنّياً جديداً، غريباً، ومتميّزاً، والذي يتجاهل الإعلام اسمه، وتجهله الأجيالُ الصّاعدةُ.

صاحبِ هذه المسيرةِ الغنيّةِ والرياديّةِ يستحقّ الإضاءة على قيمتِهِ وموقعِهِ وقامتِهِ؛ وذلك انطلاقاً من اقتدائِنا بقولِ سعاده: “الموسيقى والغناءُ من العواملِ الكبيرةِ في تطوّرِ الأممِ الاجتماعيّةِ والرّوحيّةِ”.

فأمثالُ الرّاحلِ مخّول قاصوف همْ مَن يمثّلونَ الوجهَ المشرقَ من هذه الأمّةِ، وهم العلامةُ الدّالّةُ على ما في مجتمعِنا من مناراتٍ للتّطوّرِ والتّقدّمِ.

مخّول قاصوف، أيّها الكبير الذي أعدّ فخراً وحملاً عظيماً أن أتولّى الموقع نفسه الذي شغلته وبرعتَ فيه،

إليك أقول:

لقد حقّقتَ بالفعل ما غنّيتَه من كلمات كمال خير بك: “ضليت من الشعرا وضلّيت من الكبار”.

د. لؤي زيتوني


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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