Adonis Diaries

Why Fateh Al Islam and why now?

Posted on: October 23, 2008

May 26, 2007

Why Fateh Al Islam and why now?


            The secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasr Allah spoke on the occasion of the Resistance and Liberation Day at nine o’clock on May 25, 2007.  This is the date of the withdrawal of Israel from south Lebanon in 2000 without any pre-conditions. The Seniora’s government cancelled this holiday last year but he reluctantly re-instated it but he dropped the word “Resistance”.

            Nasr Allah reminded the Lebanese and the World of the ethics of Hezbollah which is to delay any operation when civilian casualties are at risk because it would not be appreciated by God or the moral character of this unique Resistance movement.  He reminded the Lebanese that during the July War Hezbollah refrained to condemn the government actions and behavior that smacked of treason and had covered up the government patriotic shortcoming after the cease fire because it refused to consider a unity government; all that Hezbollah has been asking is a unity government simply because we are going through a critical situation. 

            Nasr Allah reminded us what George W. Bush was forced to divulge under popular pressures: Bush strategy in Iraq was to draw Al Qaeda in Iraq so that the US forces would be able to fight these salafist militias in a foreign Arab country instead of letting them focus on targets inside the USA.  Nasr Allah drew a parallel with what is happening in the Palestinian camp of Nahr Al Bared in Tripoli and which is to force the Lebanese army to deal with Al Qaeda by supplying it with ammunitions and drawing the Ben Laden supporters into Lebanon too.

            Seymour Hersh is saying at a CNN report on Fateh Al Islam that the US, in tandem with Bandar Bin Sultan, the Saudi National Security Chief, have been funding and arming the Fateh Al Islam militias in order to be the Sunny militia arm facing the Chi3a Hezbollah.  Hersh is claiming that the US administration has been acting irrationally after the crushing fiasco of the July War in Lebanon and changing its tactics by supporting the Sunny groups in Lebanon and Iraq.  This new tactic coincides with the idea that the Saudi and Jordanian monarchs have been promoting; mainly to establish a Sunny crescent from Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Palestine and Lebanon to oppose the growing Chi3a influence in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

            Thus the rumors that Sa3d Hariri was bankrolling the Fateh Al Islam must have foundations.  The claim of Samir Gea3ja that Fateh Al Islam was trained in Palestinian camps in Syria and that it is actually Fateh Al Intifada has also foundations.  That Syria is willing to cooperate with the US and the Saudi has always been true, especially if negotiation with Israel is in agreement with the new USA tactics.  That Syria obliged the US/Saudi request is not strange since Syria has always obliged the US and Saudi pressures.

            The puzzle of why Fateh Al Islam attacked the Lebanese army so recklessly and brutally, even slaughtering a few of them, and why now can be interpreted in many ways; either this militia is infiltrated by elements to destroy it, or actually the US wants a hot summer in Lebanon and by this process weakening the Lebanese army as the sole remaining institution representing the whole of the Lebanese, or maybe the US administration has come to its senses and realized that to focus on Iraq and the retreat of its troops require a cool down on all fronts bordering Iraq.

            That Fateh Al Islam is infiltrated, as any other organization by several interested States, is more than plausible and among them Syria.    I doubt that Syria is going to act independently now that the negotiation process with Israel is more than likely.  Could the Iranian realized the danger of the growing financial and military support to Fateh Al Islam and set up a trap to discredit the government who has been emptying the prisons from these elements since the Donnieh skirmishes a couple of years ago?  Why not?  A fighting member of Fateh Al Islam has expressed his view that a third party was involved in the killing of the Lebanese soldiers and that they had no qualm with the army.

            The second alternative purpose was to immerse Lebanon into an open conflict with Al Qaeda as it happened in Iraq and scattering the efforts and energies of the Lebanese army, paving the ground for a civil war. Even if this army has shown cohesion and firm allegiance to the constitution it is by no means a certainty that it could go on for ever in this disturbing climate; once the ball gets rolling and the army is getting more involved in direct and serious confrontations things can get out of hand.

            The third alternative is that the US has decided to establish the Lebanese army as the most viable organization to propagate security on the Lebanese territory.  Maybe this confrontation with Fateh Al Islam was a test for the readiness and cohesion of the army and the support that is enjoying from the whole population.  My opinion is that the US wants a resolution to the Lebanese crisis because it does not want another face off with the European Union that seeks peace and security in the Mediterranean Sea basin. George W. Bush is a wounded lion and had been seeking vengeance and had spitted his venom at Fateh Al Islam.  Now, the US administration is about to land on firm reality and listens carefully to its citizens and the growing uneasiness of its soldiers in Iraq since the direct control of the oil reserves in Iraq has proven not to be a viable alternative.

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October 2008

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