Adonis Diaries

Is Lebanon political system immune to radical non-violent revolts?

Black Swan theory NOT applicable to Lebanon? Think again!

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (see note), the mathematician who wrote “The Black Swan:  The power of the unpredictable” published an article in the French weekly Le Courrier International. Nassim stated that Lebanon’s political structure, as in Italy, is immune to drastic revolts similar to those taking place in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen…

Taleb contends that since governments in Lebanon take turn representing “opposition alliances”, as in Italy, the inherent and natural fluctuations in the system instability are resolved naturally.

Taleb said that dictator regimes fall badly because the system try hard to control minor legitimate discontents, and consequently, the system is fragile when any major revolt strikes unexpectedly.

(As a reminder, Black Swan is a term coined after discovering a black swan a couple of years ago.  People firmly believed that all swans were white:  A few might have observed a black swan, but refused to identify it as a swan. Maybe black swans are common sight in particular regions and people had no idea that black swans are considered rarity all over the world and might be purchased for their weight in gold to be raised in zoos!)

Either Taleb is using selective memory, or he is not that familiar with Lebanon’s political structure history after staying abroad for so long.  I suspect that Taleb confused catalysts with causes in the case of Lebanon, a confusion he frequently warned against in analyzing the cases of the “Arab Spring” revolts and the financial crisis.

First, since independence in 1943, Lebanon experienced two failed internal coup d’etats, one in 1949 and another in 1961, and several uprising such as in 1950, 1958, and 1974…  Last week, the Moustakbal party that led an alliance which governed Lebanon since 1991, has tried a failed coup d’etat to conserve its mobile communication interests:  The general director of the internal forces, General Reefy, led a force of 400 armed men and occupied the second flat in the communication ministry. The director of the communication ministry, Youssof, a stauch member of the Moustakbal of Saad Hariri PM party, participated in that stupid undertaking.

Second, Lebanon witnessed two civil wars, one in 1958 and another one in 1975 that lasted 17 years.  Since the end of the civil war in 1991, Lebanon experienced a major military coup d’etat in 2008 that started in the Palestinian camp of Nahr el Bared around Tripoli:  The army needed 11 months to overcome the uprising of the Islamist salafists Jund al Sham.

Beirut experienced a quick military coup in 2007 by Hezbollah, as the government attempted to control land communication lines.  The war of 2006 against Israel was actually a military coup perpetrated by the Lebanese government to control Hezbollah’s military might.

Third, Italy has true political parties with programs and policies.  The election laws in Italy are among the fairest and most equitable in the western States.  Frequent changes in governments didn’t prevent Italy to continue being among the leading economic powers in the world.  Italy is very generous in investing in the poorer nations and its grants are relied upon in most States around the Mediterranean Sea basin.  Italy has many contingents in the various UN peace-keeping forces…

Whereas Lebanon is practically a Non-State country since its independence, a pseudo State by any criteria.  The 18 religious sects represent the main powers by law, and they exercise de-facto political influence.  Civil status of every “citizen” is run and administered by the officially recognized religious sects that own more than 50% of the land.

Every religious sect is backed by over three confessional “political parties”. The two historically secular political parties, the communist and the Syrian National Social parties, were denied participation in the Parliament via tailored-made election laws and procedures.  The Syrian National Social party was recently permitted to enter the parliament, carried on the shoulders of other main confessional parties.

Fourth, Lebanon lacks sustainable public institutions and any long-term programs and policies.  The only benefit the citizen enjoys is a mere passport.  The are no serious governance for the people to march against and demand reforms.  Was Taleb aware of the actual conditions and situation in Lebanon for him to catagorize Lebanon as falling in line within the “stable” political systems and immune to radical revolts as Italy?

The hot season has started in the northern hemisphere, and the Spring Revolt might cool off a bit.  In Lebanon, we missed the spring upheavals that swept the “Arab” world, but we planted the seed of a fresh drastic non-violent revolt for the next spring season.

The youth in Lebanon organized 5 marches in various cities in Lebanon demanding change in the confessional political structure.  Next Spring, the revolt will still be non-violent, but the target and purpose of the revolt will not be a matter of a reform here and another there.

The traditonal “leaders” have demonstrated that they refuse to establish a functioning State for all “citizens”:  Lebanon has been run by Non-State governments, or care-taker governments.

The Movement for Change must be ready for the dawn of the next spring season: It must start doing serious due dilligence.

First, specialized teams have to dig-up and dust-off the policies and programs stored in the basements of ministries.  The goal of reviewing and revising already studied programs is: “A political system from the people to the people”.  

Second, the Lebanese have to feel true citizens with equal rights under the law.  The Lebanese have to enjoy fair and equitable election laws that allow common people to acceed to decision-making positions.

Third, Laws have to be revised for citizens, regardless of genders, race, or religious affiliation, to have fair opportunities to all political positions and job opportunities in the public and private institutions and enterprises.

Fourth, The Constitution has to be re-written to separate religion from civil power and responsibility…

Radical changes are possible: There are no other alternatives to patching up a rotten political and social structure; it is not feasible to move on with small incremental reforms under the power of the ferocious religious and financial oligarchies that have been dominating our lives and subjugating us to constant instability and indignities.

We have grown up to be mature and responsible adult “citizens”

Note 1: Nassim Taleb, a mathematician, was a trader and worked for 20 years as consultant to large investment banks in New York and London. He created Empirica LLC for trading.  He is engineering professor at the polytechnic institute at the University of New York.  Taleb published “Savage hazard” and “The Black Swan:  The power of the unpredictable.”

Note 2: The deposed Saad Hariri PM is a Saudi citizen first, and has been located in Saudi Arabia for the past three months, taking care of private business, and is currently established in Paris….