Posts Tagged ‘sociology’
Do you trust a physician decision in emergency rooms: Think again on choice decision strategies
Posted July 24, 2012
on:Choice decision strategy: Analytic reasoning or split-second instinct decision?
For simple short-term and non-life threatening decision choices, thinking hard on the few variables affecting the decision does generate the best satisfactory choice.
For the longer-term and very important decisions, such as profession to pursue, mate,…anything that would affect you for most of your life…thinking hard on the interactions of the complex varieties of factors is necessary as a first stage, but you need to take a long break before any decision, and let your unconscious mind select for you.
You have got to trust your unconscious mind to decide for you since the Big Brain knows your real nature, your deeper inner need, and is better than sophisticated analytic methods for important matters that affect you…
Ap Dijksterhuis, a psychologist at the Univ. of Amsterdam, conducted controlled experiments and field experiments on choice decisions methods. For example, shoppers for simple kitchen utensils and appliances, those who considered the choices from different angles and thought hard on all the pros and cons, were very satisfied with their choices weeks later. Those who relied on instinct ended up very dissatisfied.
Shoppers for furniture and remodeling their homes, a complex problem, were most satisfied when they allowed their “instinct” to prevail at the end of the day.
This decision-making system is valid in politics, managerial jobs…It can be generalized to many facet of life decisions.
Another example. Physicians in emergency rooms rely on their “tested” initial instinct for diagnosing patients with chest pains. Statistics have shown that physician instincts were more often than not faulty and not that good after all. What could be the alternative?
How to re-educate the instinct of physicians?
Analyzing reams of data, Lee Goldman used complex computer models to identify a few key factors and symptoms that seemed to be the most significant in the diagnostic of chest pain. Once the physicians were re-educated and aware of the new story the data were telling them, the initial instinct decision of physicians were vastly improved.
That is what artificial intelligence programs are meant to provide: Re-educating how we make “split-second decision”, after we understand thoroughly the problem.
Suppose you are a teacher, how would you weight the results of standardized tests and how much do you weight your judgment about the student’s motivation, attitude, and prospects?
Suppose you are a coach for athletes. How much would you weight the performance scores and how much would you let your judgment on the athlete motivation, youth, attitudes, listening skills, learning zeal…retain an athlete?
Every organization, institution, and decision-makers need to have a proper combination of analytic reasoning and data processing skills for models and split-second decision procedures.
Decisions not based first on understanding the trend of real data can be devastating. And relying solely on data analysis would lead to many erroneous decisions…
Comprehensive knowledge, practice, experience…then allowing instinct to decide is “The power of thinking without thinking”
Note 1: Post inspired from a chapter in “Blink” by Malcolm Gladwell
Note 2: https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2009/12/11/efficiency-has-limits-within-cultural-bias/
“How Israel could be that stupid to alienate Turkey?” by Yossi Belin
In the daily “Israel Today”, former minister Yossi Belin wrote: “How could Israel easily alienate Turkey, a huge State of 76 million and the second fastest economy (after China?), and so close to our border, and having democratic institution? Israel government is resuming its stupid laments in statements such as “Turkey started first…” and “Turkey is demanding unfair apologies (for the killing of 9 Turkish peace activists in the taking over of the “peace ships” heading to Gaza) …”
Erdogan (Turkey’s PM) was the mediator between Syria and Israel for a peace settlement in return for the occupied Golan Heights, but former Israel Olmert PM opted instead to lauch war against Gaza instead in 2008 and dropping thousand tons of phosphorous bombs…
Currently, Israel is in deep troubles. Israel lost Iran (the former Shah in 1979), and now it lost Turkey (the steadiest supporter and NATO member) and has lost Egypt, and is facing turmoil on its southern borders (Sinai and the frequent blowing of oil pipelines) and northern borders (the Syrian rebels and Hezbollah…).
And yet, Israel seems not to be able to flex its muscles except on the tiny Gaza Strip: Over 20 Palestinians have been killed and scores of civilian injured in the last week frequent shelling and bombing of Gaza…The international community is still heavily focused on Syria, as if the famished Palestinians in the bankrupt enclave of Gaza are non entities…
Erdogan is very ill of terminal cancer and might not finish his term. Turkey one party hegemony will suffer seriously from current instability due to accumulated unresolved difficulties with the Kurds (20% of population), the Alawit Shia sect (15% of population), its reckless haste of supporting the Moslem Brotherhood faction in Syria uprising, the coming of new faces in the next parliament since no deputy is to stay more than three successive terms…And Russia decided that Turkey will not be the main middleman in the Middle-East for any trade deals…
There are no “reliable” dictator regimes around Israel to deal with, and the people in the Middle-East have learned not to be afraid of mighty military powers. Hezbollah has checked Israel military power for 33 days in June 2006, and practically won the war…
Most probably Israel will withdraw unilaterally from the Golan Heights (as it did from south Lebanon in 2000) since the multiple negotiations didn’t result in any serious consideration by Israel. The people guerilla tactics in south Syria will convince Israel to cut its cost and let go of an occupation demanded by the UN since 1967.