Adonis Diaries

Archive for May 4th, 2009

“Instantaneous Expediencies” (April 30, 2009)

 

            We are experiencing a form of policies in the developed nations that is emulating the urges of its citizens for Instantaneous Expediencies related to desires, wishes, demands, acquisition, communication, gathering of intelligence, information, orders, and delivery around the world.  Our current development is characterized by accelerated paces in sciences, technologies, and communication, and delivery of our wishes either through the net, the phone, or airplanes within days if not seconds. If we understand that human history progressed in major three phases of change and dissemination of intelligence of the changes in science, technologies, social and political organization, traditions, and cultures then we might grasp our current problems and how to find common denominators for resolutions.

 

            There was a time when dissemination of information among the tribes was very slow and the changes taking place among tribes were even slower so that the world was at peace of rivalries and greed.  The next phase of settled communities in urban and agricultural regions experienced accelerated changes in many ways of progress but the dissemination of this intelligence was very slow and the identities of each region developed through traditions, customs, and myths.  By the 16th century and as the Portuguese and Spanish circumnavigated the oceans and discovered many maritime routes for trade and exploitation and met with various ethic groups then the third phase of human development occurred.  This third phase was characterized by the dissemination of ideas, sciences, and know-how progressed at a higher pace than the actual social and political changes in the European nations and thus, the world communities exhibited some kind of generalized uniformity in dwelling designs and forms of political and social organizations and structure.

 

            The world is faced with a bunch of catastrophic problems from financial and economical difficulties, to environmental disasters that will not spare the next generation, to the emergence of potential superpowers with larger middle classes that can afford and demand all the consumer goods that the west has enjoyed for over a century, and to extremism in religions and nationalism to name just a few.  All these cataclysmic problems require global resolutions but solutions and decisions are done on national basis as Amine Maluf stated in “A World Adrift”

 

            After the disintegration of the communist Soviet Union in 1989 Europe and particularly the US realized that they could dominate the World economically and militarily.  By 2001, the US Bush Junior administration of neo-conservatives could no longer resist to test the notion of Instantaneous Expediencies.  The US administration had the urge to put in practice its power of perceived world police force.  In no times, the administration delivered its summons to the European Union and the UN to adhere to the US plans of invading Iraq.  The material potentials were there but the moral value and culture of the US administration were fidgeted in another era of staunch nationalism and religious zealotry.

 

William Carlos Williams (1883-1963) wrote “Man has survived because he was too ignorant to know how to realize his wishes (desires).  Now that he can realize his wishes, then he must either change them or perish”.

Modern Day Crusaders: The Ashkenazi Spearhead “Jews”, (April 27, 2009)

Brief Ancient history:  Many waves of Crusading forces assembled in Medieval Europe with the avowed purpose of recapturing the Holy City of Jerusalem from the hands of the Moslem “Infidels”.

The successive crusading invasions were mainly of trading nature: the wealthy European new class of merchants wanted a cheaper trade for securing the spice and perfume routes of India and the Far-East Asia via Egypt.

The Crusaders failed to capture Egypt on 3 occasions and the objective of investing money in order to securing cheaper spices and perfumes that were transported by land routes through Iran and Turkey did not generate any return and the Crusading campaigns stopped.

The maritime crusading campaigns restarted in the 16th centuries by Portugal and Spain.

India and the Far Eastern Asian, sources of spices, perfume, and gold were colonized and maritime stronghold ports were established around Africa, India, Yemen, and the Persian/Arabia Sea.  The British recaptured most of these colonies and trading posts (comptoirs) and secured the direct administration of Egypt.

Slightly Modern history:  Britain, France, and Russia realized that it is too costly to colonize the former empires of Iran and Turkey for no major returns, since raw materials could be obtained relatively cheaply by maritime routes. Their best strategy was to weaken these nations and nibble on their neighboring regions.

Russia got interested in the Caucasus triangle of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia.

France was interested in Syria and Lebanon.

Britain got mandate power over Iraq, Jordan, and Palestine.

And then oil was discovered in abundance in this region, starting in southern Iran around 1906.

The First World War used mechanized troops; diesel engines were substituted to vapor engines as mechanical workhorse for industries.

The USA got in the fray since 1920 for oil explorations in the Arabic peninsula and exhibited its colonial ambitions by conquering Cuba and the Philippines from Spain in 1911.

Modern history:  Britain enticed the Hashemite king of Mecca, supposedly from the same Quraich tribe of the Prophet Muhammad, to support the war effort against the Moslem Ottoman Empire.

Britain quickly realized that the Near Eastern population (Syria, Lebanon, Palestine) would not mind a “nominal” nomadic king from Mecca, but the Levantine people were too independent and urban to relinquish their desires for autonomy.

Consequently, Britain and France decided that it would be too risky to allow the Near Eastern people to unite under a vital and critical Nation.

The alternative was found by using the Zionist movement as a spearhead to disrupting any unification of the region.  The British Foreign Affairs Balfour issued in 1917 a declaration of intent favorable to the settlement of the Zionist movement in Palestine.

In the same year, Britain and France decided to split their mandated powers over the Near East.  Consequently, the Ashkenazi “Jews” of Central Europe, were encouraged to build agricultural colonies in Palestine in order to establishing a “Jewish Homeland” with avowed purpose of re-capturing the Jewish Holy City of Jerusalem.

The modern crusade of the western nations is cloaked in Jewish biblical claims to destabilize this strategic region.

Since 1920, the Ashkenazi Jews were directed by International Zionism to buy and settle Palestine and it was supported by the European governments of Britain and France.

The beginning of Nazi Germany persecutions of Jews in 1933 encouraged the European nations to transfer the Jews to Palestine in order not to alienate Nazi Germany and succumb to its demands for repatriation of the Ashkenazi “Jews” into concentration camps.

It does not mean that the plan to establishing a “Homeland” for the Ashkenazi Jews was inevitable or that the people in the Near East were not aware of the plan and its existential danger.  The main troubles were:

First, this region had not credible institutions and lacked unified organizations to counter politically this harrowing plan;

Second, the surrounding empires of Turkey, Iran, and Egypt were struggling for survival and had no immediate interests in their backyard; and

Third, the mandate superpowers of Britain and France controlled and managed the region and its policies.

The people in the Near East are aware that the State of Israel is a western implant of the same kind of crusadering campaigns in the first millennia. The Zionist ideology prevented the leadership in Israel in alleviating and changing this perception for over 60 years.

There are indications that the USA and Europe comprehend that the game is over and are drawing plans for the counter immigration of the Ashkenazi to their original homelands.

The Sephardic Jews have practically nowhere to go, and they will manage to integrate Palestine as they did since ancient times.

It would be beneficial for the western nations to change their policies of “divide to dominate” in the Near East and start negotiating with the national resistance forces, even if they offer the image of religious resistance forces, because this is the most potent factor when secular conditions are weak.

The western nations need to negotiate with all resistances forces in the region as national resistance to a foreign implant, so that the new emerging nation does not fall to the extremist conservative religious ideologies.

This is a long term fight of 20 years and the secular democratic forces in the Near East need to have an opportunity for a fighting chance.

Note: I am perfectly aware that many would use the dismissive “anti-semitism” cliché in emulation of the lazy media approach to hot issues.  It is interesting to realize that effective and valuable communication is based on personal reflection with rational thinking as guiding rod.

Turkey and Iran: Same and Different (April 25, 2009)

 

Brief history:  Throughout antiquity till our modern days three main empires dominated the landscape of the Middle East. Turkey, Iran, and Egypt were vast empires and advanced urbanely and economically before the advent of Islam. Turkey and Iran managed to enjoy a semi-continuous existence of empires but Egypt had large vacuums of many centuries in between empires since the Pharaohs. Egypt enjoyed special status during the Greek, Roman, Arab, and Ottoman empires and was a world apart as wheat basket and advanced civilization. Turkey and Iran could benefit from stable “national” entities but Egypt experienced foreign leaders as kings or sultans and relied on foreign officers to lead its armies, the latest dynasty was from Albania with Muhammad Ali. 

The three empires are currently mostly Moslems and they were in general lenient with the minority religious sects.  The three empires have vast lands, rich in water, and have currently about the same number of population of about 70 millions and increasing at high rates. The Iranian empires relied on the Afghanistanis and the central Asian tribes for their armies.  As the frequent Mogul raids descended on Persia its armies went on the defensive. The Turkish and Ottoman empires relied on the Caucasus tribes from current Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia States, and also from Albania and Romania.  As Russia started to expand southward and occupied many of these regions then Turkey curtailed most of its vast military campaigns and went on the defensive.  The Caucasus triangle of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia is still a hot spot for domination among Russia, Turkey, and to a lesser extent Iran, especially with the oil and gas pipelines that pass through them.  My post “Cursed Cities: Karss” would shed detailed historical accounts on that tragic triangle.

 

Modern Status:

 

In around 1920’s two military dictators ruled over Iran and Turkey.  Rida “shah” in Iran and “Ataturk” in Turkey were attempting to modernize their infrastructure and civil administrations by emulating the European examples.  Ataturk went as far as changing the Turkish alphabet to Latin.  Both dictators confronted the religious clerics for establishing secular States with unequal long term successes.  Iran has reverted to religious oligarchy after Khomeini came to power.

While Iran was historically more clement with its minorities it appears that Turkey is practically taking steps to outpacing Iran in that advantage; for example, Turkey is translating the Koran into the ethnic languages such as Kurdish.  Women in Turkey are prominent in businesses such as Goler Sabanji; 9% of women are represented in the Parliament.  In Iran, Shireen Abadi is Nobel laureate for defending women’s rights; Iranian women represent only 3% in the Parliament though they represent 65% in universities.

In the 70’s Iran was flush with oil revenue while Turkey was struggling to establish an industrial infrastructure. It appears that in the long term oil is definitely a curse for emerging nations because wealth is not invested on the human potentials and stable modern political structure.

In 2008, foreign investment in Turkey was 14 billions dollars and increasing while it amounted to just one billion in Iran.  Turkey has expanded its representation in Africa by opening 12 new Embassies and 20 new consulates. Nisreen Ozaimy is from Iran by origin and fled to Turkey; when her family lived in Turkey it was impressed by the confidence that the Turks valued their various ethnic nationalities and they implicit feeling that Turkey is in fact a bridge between East and West.  The Turks managed to blend harmoniously the secular and religious inclinations.

Bi-Weekly Report (#20) on Lebanon and the Middle East (May 3, 2009)

 

Israel would like to play games with the US Administration in order to delaying tough decisions for the establishment of a Palestinian State that everyone has been yearning for. Israel is trying to focus the attention on Iran but there are no takers.  The US Administration knows that there are no peace treaties with the Palestinians or Syria unless the regional powers are satisfied and consenting; mainly Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.  Iran is the easiest of the roadblocks among ther four major regional powers because Iran would rather focus its investment on the social and economical issues in Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria. 

The most difficult power to satisfy would be Egypt because it lost all credibilities for making any difference in the Arab World and in Africa; Egypt is holding staunchly to its last Palestinian cards since the huge weight in the Arab World that Gamal Abdel Nasser created for Egypt was dilapidated and used up since Sadate in 1970.  In fact, if a Palestinian State is voted for in the UN then Egypt would have to turn to its main responsibility which is Sudan. Sudan is a real hot potato and an international focus; Egypt has neglected Sudan for so long that it has no real leverage over there.

Saudi Arabia comprehends that exporting and prozelitizing its Wahhabit sect will come to an abrupt stop if peace and stability reign in the States of the Sunni Moslems.  The Wahabit salafist sect relies mainly on religious extremisms in the Arab World which is fueled by considering Israel and Iran as nemesis to the Moslems.

Turkey is enjoying its new found role of mediator and would rather that this exercise last longer to convince France that Turkey is a critical factor for the European Union political effectiveness in the Middle East. The triangle of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan is a very hot potato for Turkey to focus its attention on: Turkey would rather not alienate Russia at this junction before it secures a place in the EU.

Israel has been trying since the coming of Barak Obama to immerse the new US Administration in the recurring troubles between India and Pakistan and comploting terrorists attack in both States; the purpose was to divert the US was pressuring Israel to deliver on its promises for facilitating the establishment of a recognized Palestinian State.  With spring the Pakistani Army is making good progress inside the rebellious extremist Taliban type districts within Pakistan such as the Valley of Souwat and with the support of US military shipments.

 

I was having a nap around 4 p.m. this Wednesday when I overheard that the four military officers, Jameel Al Saeyed (former Security Director), Raymond Azar (military intelligence), Mustafa Hamdan (Presidential guard), and Ali Haj (director of the internal forces) will be released this afternoon after the special International Court of Justice for former Rafic Hariri realized that it had no legal indictments on any one of the Generals.

There will be strong pressures for four judges to resign because they covered up information and detained the officers for 44 months without any kinds of indictments for political reasons; mainly the focus will be on the judges Saeed Mirza and Sakr Sakr.  Many heads will fall and the government is in hot water, especially Seniora PM, Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, Samer Geaja, and particularly deputy Marwan Hamady for fabricating false testimonies by false witnesses.

After four years of investigation into the assassination of Rafic Hariri the International Court has nothing in its file for indicting anyone.  Nasr Allah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah has suggested that a new venue be focused on; mainly the Israeli connection because they had the interest and the means for this major upheaval in Lebanon.  Nas Allah proclaimed that no more indictments or imprisonement would be facilitated before thorough analysis of the proofs with the UN Court.

Jameel Al Saeyed had explained that their political indictment was a routine behavior of every government since the Independence of Lebanon. The security responsibility of any government starts with the president of the Republic, then the Prime Minister, then the Head of the Parliament, then the ministers, then the deputies and lastly the security forces.  All the massacres, treasury stealing, financial black boxes, and insecurity of the State are done by the politicians and based on their policies.  Once the politicians find it convenient to reconcile their differences it is the officers of the security and military forces that are targeted as scapegoats.

Next Tuesday the highest court of judges of Lebanon will meet and come up with a credible explanation for shirking its independence as the third authority and hopefully major heads should pay the price for ruining the credibility of our justice system.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

May 2009
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